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Statistics and Physical Oceanography
STATISTICS AND PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
Panel on Statistics and Oceanography
Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics
Board on Mathematical Sciences
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications
National Research Council
National Academy Press
Washington, D.C.
1993
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Statistics and Physical Oceanography
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M.White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I.Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M.White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
Support for this project was provided by the Office of Naval Research.
Copyright 1993 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Additional copies of this report are available from:
Board on Mathematical Sciences
National Research Council
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20418
Printed in the United States of America
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Statistics and Physical Oceanography
PANEL ON STATISTICS AND OCEANOGRAPHY
DUDLEY B. CHELTON,
Oregon State University,
Cochair
WILLIAM F. EDDY,
Carnegie Mellon University,
Cochair
RICHARD DEVEAUX,
Princeton University
RAISA FELDMAN,
University of California at Santa Barbara
ROMAN E. GLAZMAN,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
ANNALISA GRIFFA,
University of Miami
KATHRYN A. KELLY,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
GORDON J. MACDONALD,
University of California at San Diego
MURRAY ROSENBLATT,
University of California at San Diego
BORIS ROZOVSKII,
University of Southern California
Staff
JOHN R. TUCKER, Senior Program Officer
COMMITTEE ON APPLIED AND THEORETICAL STATISTICS
WILLIAM F. EDDY,
Carnegie Mellon University,
Chair
YVONNE BISHOP,
U.S. Department of Energy
MARY ELLEN BOCK,
Purdue University
MARJORIE G. HAHN,
Tufts University
DOUGLAS M. HAWKINS,
University of Minnesota
DAVID G. HOEL,
Medical University of South Carolina
JON R. KETTENRING,
Bellcore
KARL E. PEACE,
Biopharmaceutical Research Consultants
STEPHEN M. POLLOCK,
University of Michigan
DARYL PREGIBON,
AT&T Bell Laboratories
Staff
JOHN R. TUCKER, Senior Program Officer
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Statistics and Physical Oceanography
BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
SHMUEL WINOGRAD,
IBM T.J. Watson Research Center,
Chair
RONALD DOUGLAS,
State University of New York at Stony Brook,
Vice-Chair
LAWRENCE D.BROWN,
Cornell University
SUN-YUNG A. CHANG,
University of California at Los Angeles
AVNER FRIEDMAN,
University of Minnesota
JOHN F. GEWEKE,
University of Minnesota
JAMES GLIMM,
State University of New York at Stony Brook
DIANE LAMBERT,
AT&T Bell Laboratories
GERALD J. LIEBERMAN,
Stanford University
PAUL S. MUHLY,
University of Iowa
RONALD F. PEIERLS,
Brookhaven National Laboratory
JEROME SACKS,
National Institute of Statistical Sciences
ROBERT J. ZIMMER,
University of Chicago
Ex Officio Member
WILLIAM F. EDDY,
Carnegie Mellon University
Chair,
Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics
Staff
JOHN E. LAVERY, Director
RUTH E. O’BRIEN, Staff Associate
HANS OSER, Senior Program Officer
JOHN R. TUCKER, Senior Program Officer
BARBARA WRIGHT, Administrative Assistant
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Statistics and Physical Oceanography
COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS
RICHARD N. ZARE,
Stanford University,
Chair
JOHN A. ARMSTRONG,
IBM Corporation (retired)
PETER J. BICKEL,
University of California at Berkeley
GEORGE F. CARRIER,
Harvard University (retired)
GEORGE W. CLARK,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MARYE ANNE FOX,
University of Texas-Austin
AVNER FRIEDMAN,
University of Minnesota
SUSAN L. GRAHAM,
University of California at Berkeley
NEAL F. LANE,
Rice University
ROBERT W. LUCKY,
Bellcore
CLAIRE E. MAX,
Lawrence Livermore Laboratory
CHRISTOPHER F. MCKEE,
University of California at Berkeley
JAMES W. MITCHELL,
AT&T Bell Laboratories
RICHARD S. NICHOLSON,
American Association for the Advancement of Science
ALAN SCHRIESHEIM,
Argonne National Laboratory
A.RICHARD SEEBASS III,
University of Colorado
KENNETH G. WILSON,
Ohio State University
NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director
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Statistics and Physical Oceanography
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Statistics and Physical Oceanography
PREFACE
This report was prepared in response to a request from the Office of Naval Research to the National Research Council’s Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics. It describes research opportunities in statistics and applied probability arising in physical oceanographic applications. The report is expository, with the intended audience being statisticians and quantitatively literate people with a background in statistical applications to science, as well as federal agency representatives interested in encouraging such cross-disciplinary research.
In producing this report, the panel had to surmount communication and comprehension difficulties to truly understand, e.g., what someone from another discipline had expressed. One result was an appreciation of just how difficult it is to engage in truly collaborative, cross-disciplinary work. Another result was an insight into what strategies will (and will not) be likely to succeed in performing such work. The panel believes understanding and appreciating these matters are as important to the encouragement and accomplishment of statistical research in physical oceanography as are the descriptions of statistical research opportunities discussed in Chapters 2 through 8. Accordingly, Chapter 9 gives the panel’s conclusions, observations, and suggestions on encouraging successful collaborations between statisticians and oceanographers.
The panel gratefully acknowledges the support of the Office of Naval Research in this project and expresses appreciation to all of the people who provided information that aided the panel in the preparation of this report. They include Mark Abbott, Andrew Bennett, Hans Graber, Greg Holloway, Ricardo Matano, Robert N.Miller, Leonid Piterbarg, Michael Schlax, P.Ted Strub, V.Zlotnicki, and four anonymous reviewers who offered insightful comments and suggestions. In particular, L.Piterbarg helped write Chapter 3, P.Strub helped write Chapter 4, M.Abbott helped write Chapter 5, R.Miller and V.Zlotnicki helped write Chapter 6, and H.Graber helped write Chapter 7. The panel also gratefully acknowledges the editorial help of John Tucker and Susan Maurizi in preparing the report.
Comments on the report are welcome, as are suggestions for future topics on which similar reports might help to provide useful cross-disciplinary bridges. All such remarks should be directed to John Tucker at the Board on Mathematical Sciences, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
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Statistics and Physical Oceanography
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Statistics and Physical Oceanography
CONTENTS
1
OVERVIEW
1
Introduction
1
Purpose and Scope of This Report
1
Oceanography—A Brief Sketch
3
Oceanographic Modeling, Data, and Noise
5
The Many Meanings of the Term “Model”
5
Diverse Definitions of the Term “Data”
10
Low Noise Is Good Noise
14
2
STATISTICAL ISSUES IN THE MULTIPLE-SCALE VARIABILITY OF OCEANOGRAPHIC FIELDS
17
Oceanographic Variability
17
Satellite Observations
19
Issues for Statistical Research
20
3
LAGRANGIAN AND EULERIAN DATA AND MODELS
23
Prospective Directions for Research
26
4
FEATURE IDENTIFICATION
27
Tracking of Fronts and Rings
27
Sea Ice Tracking
28
Estimation of Horizontal Velocities from Image Sequences
29
Prospective Directions for Research
31
5
VISUALIZATION
33
Uses of Visualization
33
Challenges for Visualization
34
Outstanding Statistical Issues
36
6
INTERPOLATION, NONLINEAR SMOOTHING, FILTERING, AND PREDICTION
37
Interpolation of Satellite Data Sets
37
Characteristics of Satellite Data
37
Mapping Satellite Data: Motivation and Methods
38
Data Assimilation: Use of Dynamical Models for Smoothing and Filtering
40
Inverse Methods
42
Prospective Directions for Research
43
7
MODEL AND DATA COMPARISONS
45
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Statistics and Physical Oceanography
8
NON-GAUSSIAN RANDOM FIELDS
47
Statistical Research Opportunities
49
9
ENCOURAGING COLLABORATION BETWEEN STATISTICIANS AND OCEANOGRAPHERS
51
Conclusions
51
Observations and Suggestions
52
BIBLIOGRAPHY
55