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Organizing U.S. Participation in GOALS

(Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System)

Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Panel

Climate Research Committee

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.

1995


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Organizing U.S. Participation in GOALS: (Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System) Organizing U.S. Participation in GOALS (Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System) Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Panel Climate Research Committee Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.1995

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Organizing U.S. Participation in GOALS: (Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System) NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approvedby the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose membersare drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences,the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosenfor their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors accordingto procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting ofmembers of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academyof Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuatingsociety of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineeringresearch, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technologyand to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of thecharter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has amandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientificand technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the NationalAcademy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, underthe charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organizationof outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administrationand in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academyof Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government.The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programsaimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research,and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. HaroldLiebowitz is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the NationalAcademy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members ofappropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertainingto the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibilitygiven to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charterto be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative,to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr.Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academyof Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science andtechnology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge andadvising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with generalpolicies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principaloperating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and theNational Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government,the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Councilis administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine.Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. Harold Liebowitz are chairman and vicechairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This report is funded in part by a contract from the National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration. The views expressed herein are thoseof the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA orany of its sub-agencies. Copyright 1995 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Available in limited supply from: Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418-0001

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Organizing U.S. Participation in GOALS: (Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System) GLOBAL OCEAN–ATMOSPHERE–LAND SYSTEM (GOALS) PANEL PETER J. WEBSTER (Chair), University of Colorado, Boulder GRANT W. BRANSTATOR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado DUDLEY B. CHELTON, JR., Oregon State University, Corvallis ISAAC M. HELD, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey ROGER B. LUKAS, University of Hawaii, Honolulu J. DAVID NEELIN, University of California, Los Angeles EUGENE M. RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park PETER B. RHINES, University of Washington, Seattle JAGADISH SHUKLA, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, Maryland W. JAMES SHUTTLEWORTH, The University of Arziona, Tucson KEVIN E. TRENBERTH, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ROBERT A. WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts Staff MARK D. HANDEL, Senior Program Officer THERESA M. FISHER, Administrative Assistant

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Organizing U.S. Participation in GOALS: (Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System) CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE ERIC J. BARRON (Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park DAVID S. BATTISTI, University of Washington, Seattle RUSS E. DAVIS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California MELINDA M. HALL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts THOMAS R. KARL, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina JEFFREY T. KIEHL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado CLAIRE L. PARKINSON, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland BARRY SALTZMAN, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut RICHARD P. TURCO, University of California, Los Angeles Ex Officio Members DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of Arizona, Tucson PETER J. WEBSTER, University of Colorado, Boulder W. LAWRENCE GATES, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California Staff WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Director THERESA M. FISHER, Administrative Assistant

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Organizing U.S. Participation in GOALS: (Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System) BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE JOHN A. DUTTON (Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University, University Park WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta CRAIG E. DORMAN, Consultant Arlington, Virginia FRANCO EINAUDI, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland MICHAEL FOX-RABINOVITZ, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook PETER V. HOBBS, University of Washington, Seattle WITOLD F. KRAJEWSKI, The University of Iowa, Iowa City MARGARET A. LeMONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado DOUGLAS K. LILLY, University of Oklahoma, Norman RICHARD S. LINDZEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge GERALD R. NORTH, Texas A&M University, College Station EUGENE M. RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Staff WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Director H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer MARK D. HANDEL, Senior Program Officer DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer ELLEN F. RICE, Reports Officer DORIS BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant THERESA M. FISHER, Administrative Assistant MARK BOEDO, Project Assistant

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Organizing U.S. Participation in GOALS: (Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System) COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES M. GORDON WOLMAN (Chair), The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C. JAMES P. BRUCE, Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada WILLIAM L. FISHER, University of Texas, Austin EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, University of Virginia, Charlottesville W. BARCLAY KAMB, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena PERRY L. MCCARTY, Stanford University, California S. GEORGE PHILANDER, Princeton University, New Jersey RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario, Canada THOMAS A. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park ELLEN SILBERGELD, University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore, Maryland STEVEN M. STANLEY, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida Staff STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director JIM MALLORY, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate SUSAN SHERWIN, Project Assistant