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Drought Management and Its Impact on Public Water Systems Report on a Colloquium Sponsored by the Water Science and Technology Board September 5, ~ 985 Colloquium ~ of a Series Water Science and Technology Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1986

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the a''-hr~'c! =^r~n'Ain~ ~^ mr^~17~^C approved by a Report Review Committee consis;t~ng of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. 3 ~~ ~ I'm, ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . . The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of this congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, non profit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. , ~ l: Cogency i 1 has become the nrinc inn 1 This report represents work supported by agencies providing general support for activities of the Water Science and Technology Board, including the Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, and U.S. Geological Survey. Available from - Water Science and Technology Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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PRINCIPAL CONTRIBUTORS ROBERT L. SMITH, University of Kansas, Chairman EDWARD W. CLYDE, Clyde and Pratt, Salt Lake City, Utah JOHN A. DRACUP, University of California, Los Angeles BENEDYKT DZIECIELEWSKI, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale DUANE L. GEORGESON, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power GILBERT F. WHITE, University of Colorado, Boulder . . ,

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WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD JOHN J. ROLAND, The Johns Hopkins University, Chairman MARY P. ANDERSON, University of Wisconsin-Madison STEPHEN BURGES, University of Washington PAUL BUSCH, Malcolm Pirnie Engineers, White Plains, New York JOHN CAIRNS, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (through 10/85) JAMES M. DAVIDSON, University of Florida - PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Ins titute of Technology (through 10/85) LEO CHISEL, Wright Water Engineers, Denver, Colorado RICHARD S. ENGELBRECHT, university of Illinois JEROME B. GILBERT, East Bay Municipal Utility District, Oakland, California HARRY L. HAMILTON, JR., State University of New York at Albany HELEN INGRAM, University of Arizona (through 10/85) MICHAEL KAVANAUGH, James M . Montgomery Consul t ing Engineers, Oakland, California LESTER B. LAVE, Carnegie-Mellon University ORIE LOUCKS, Holcomb Research Institute, Indianapolis, Indiana (through 10/85) WALTER R. LYNN, Cornell University GEORGE R. MARZOLF, Kansas State University DAVID W. MILLER, Geraghty & Miller, Inc., Syosset, New York JEROME W. MILLIMAN, University of Florida (through 10/85) ROBERT L. SMITH, University of Kansas GARY WEATHERFORD, Watershed West, Berkeley, California EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center Staf f STEPHEN D . PARKER, Director SHE: ILA D. DAVID, Staff Officer PATRICK W. HOLDEN, Staf f Of ficer CAROLE B. CARSTATER, Staff Assistant JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Secretary RENEE A. HAWKINS, Senior Secretary LIZETTE A. MCCREARY, Secretary 1V

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PREFACE The Water Science and Technology Board Colloquia focus attention and debate on emerging Is sues in water science, technology, and policy. These colloquia provide forums to encourage discussion and debate of certain issues which the board believes should be addressed by the scientific and engineering communities. Clearly, by initiating this discussion, the board seeks to provoke individuals to consider such issues and to stimulate research on these topics. The first colloquium addressed drought management and its impact on public water systems. The inquiry began with attempts to define drought, and ranged from the need to know more of cause and effect and improved forecasting, to the legal procedures required to implement various management alternatives. Individuals noted for their expertise in areas of drought management were invited by the board to present their views and insights on this subject at a meeting of 50 participants in Boulder, Colorado, on September 5, 1985. It is apparent that drought preparedness has suffered from neglect. Historically, research efforts have focused on problems associated with water excess rather than water deficiency. Droughts may be infrequent, or of short duration, but they can have serious and long-lasting effects on a community. In the absence of adequate preparation, a drought may cause serious disruption for water users. Analyses of records of previous droughts implies that this information is not effectively communicated or understood by successive generations of water professionals or the public. The recent drought conditions in the northeastern United v

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States have focused attention on the need for water conservation and planning for future water needs. There also is a great need to educate the public about the advantages and disadvantages of proposed alternative courses of action. The colloquium keynote address delivered by Gilbert White, and presentations made by Edward Clyde, attorney; John Dracup, University of California, Los Angeles; Ben Dziegielewski, Southern Illinois University at Carbondale; and Duane Georgeson, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power provide much of the substance of this report. It was a pleasure to have had the opportunity to chair this colloquium and to synthesize the discussion contained in the report. The Water Science and Technology Board acknowledges the contributions of the participants in the colloquium and is especially grateful to those who made formal presentations. Finally, special recognition is due to Walter R. Lynn, the board's first chairman, whose idea it was to initiate this series of colloquia in the interest of water science, technology, and policy. Robert L. Smith, Chairman Colloquium on Drought Management and its Impact on Public Water Systems April 1986 V1

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CONTE~rS OVERVIEW AND CONCLUSIONS BACKGROUND PAPERS 1 Dimensions of Drought Management for Public Water Supplies, colloquium keynote address by Gilbert F. White 2 Causes and Occurrence of Drought, by John A. Dracup 3 What are Acceptable Risks for Public Systems?, by Duane L. Georgeson 4 Drought Management Options, by Benedykt Dziegielewski 5 Legal and Institutional Aspects of Drought Management, by Edward W. Clyde APPENDIXES A The Emergency Water Conservation Plan of the City of Los Angeles and the Summary of the Los Angeles Emergency Water Conservation Ordinance B Salt Lake County Water Conservancy Distric Rationing Plan 1 11 24 49 65 78 101 114 C Biographical Sketches of Principal Contributors 122 D Attendees at Boulder Colloquium e - V11 125

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