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1
DIMENSIONS OF DROUGHT MANAGEMENT FOR
PUBLIC WATER SUPPLIES
(Colloquium Keynote Address)
Gilbert F. White
Institute of Behavioral Science,
University of Colorado, Boulder
Among the several hazards to which public water supply
management is subject, drought imposes a few distinctive
problems as well as shares in others common to most
natural resources use. It comes on very slowly, its
losses are particularly amenable to short-term
mitigation by individual consumers, and it has a unique
spatial pattern of appropriate remedial or preventive
measures.
The facets of the problems involved are so numerous
that individual ones must be touched on only briefly if
all are to be identified in a balanced and comprehensive
fashion. Accordingly, this chapter deals with numerous
dimensions of public water supply and drought without
exploring any one in depth. Out of the rapid, broad
review may emerge a perspective on the detailed chapters
to follow.
DIMENSIONS
In beginning a more detailed examination of drought
causes and occurrences, management options, the notion
of acceptable risk, and their institutional
implications, it may be helpful to place that management
in perspectives of time, place, and quality. Drought is
only one of the shocks that may disrupt the range of
public services provided by a city. While thus far
defying precise forecasting, it has a long period of
onset with special problems of uncertainty. It's
possible severity differs greatly from one area to
another according to climate, ground-water availability,
and competing water uses. A good deal is known about
the modes of economic analysis requisite to choice of
—1 1—
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effi~ient options. Much has been learned in recent
years about the behavioral and legal constraints on
mitigating action. Nevertheless, it appears that
effective means for cities to cope with drought are
handicapped by a few deficiencies in data and in
analytical methods, and that public perspectives and
legal constraints on drought management are changing and
may be expected to continue to change. This report is
intended to illuminate the gaps in sight.
The term "drought" is used in this context to mean a
period of time during which, as a result of abnormally
low precipitation, the supply of surface water and water
in shallow aquifers is reduced below that safe yield
expected in most years, the recurrence interval being
set by hydrologic analysis or the vulnerability of water
supply systems. It does not have the precision of
agricultural definitions of drought, such as the Palmer
index, in which deficiencies of precipitation are
determined by relations to evapotranspiration, soil
moisture, and crop needs.
WATER AMONG OTHER PUBLIC SERVICES
The provision of water is only one of the services
most municipalities regard as essential, whether
supplied by public or private agencies. It competes
with sewerage, electricity, gas, streets, trash
collection, fire fighting, police, and welfare aims in
seeking funds and managerial attention. This is
important to remember in explaining why water
improvements and planning in some cities may seem to be
neglected in favor of more ~ ~~ ~
programs to control crime
of waste.
dramatic or complicated
or speed up traf fic or dispose
DROUGHT AS ONE HAZARD AMONG MANY
Drought is only one of the wide range of natural and
technological hazards to which a public water supply is
vulnerable. On the natural side, many urban systems are
subject to severe shocks to supply, treatment, or
distribution as a result of floods, hurricanes, and
earthquakes (Burton et al., 1978~. (Landslides,
tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, and cold spells are on
the whole less threatening to entire systems.) On the
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technological side, the dangers of ground-water
contamination, explosions, chemical spills, large fires,
and equipment breakdown are well recognized. Possibly a
more severe and widespread hazard is that of
short-sighted, incompetent management that fosters,
often complacently in the face of supplies that seem to
be satisfactory and cheap, deferred maintenance and
shoddy planning.
Comparing these several hazards in Table 1-1, it is
clear that drought, while of low frequency, has a much
longer onset time and duration than the others, thus
providing greater opportunity for preparations to cope
with its effects and to carry out such measures on a
sustained basis.
Taking into account the physical characteristics of
the drought hazard and the economic and political
.
consequences of sudden disruptions of water systems, it
can be seen that
managers faced with allocations of
meager funds for improvement may be inclined to rate the
drought as less important. For example, a waterworks
TABLE 1-1 Characteristics of Selected Hazards to Public
Water Supplies
Characteristics
Hazard
Onset Duration
Frequency (days) (days) -
Natural
Drought rare slow long
(>730) (>750)
Flood medium rapid short
(0.1-10) (0.1-4)
Hurricane medium rapid short
(2-5) (0.~-1)
Earthquake very rare instantaneous very short
(0.001) (0.5)
Technological
Explosion very rare instantaneous short to med.
Chemical spill very rare instantaneous short to med.
Equipment failure very rare instantaneous short to med.
Ground-water
contamination medium slow long
(>750)
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operator in a town along the Wasatch Front in Utah may
judge the overnight destruction by an earthquake of
aqueducts, well pumps, and distribution reservoirs as
more serious than the slow dwindling of streamflow and
reservoir capacity over three years. Or, a waterworks
operator drawing on a Delaware River supply may fear the
panic and interruptions resulting from disclosure of
~ ~ · e
new, carcinogenic substances In the storage reservoir or
an epidemic of giardiasis more than the prospects of
-
drought. Similarly, an Albuquerque city council could
be more profoundly disturbed by a discovery that its
aquifer is contaminated by organics linked with disease
prevalence, than that a drought might occur.
TIME
Looking broadly at the temporal dimension, it would
appear that drought has claimed national attention in
three major periods, and is the ob ject of two sets of
speculation, one historical, the other prospective. The
first widespread appraisal ot public water supply
, . . , . . . ~ .
.~ ~
shortages attributable to drought was stimulated by the
great drought of 1934 and 1936. A first canvass of
state sanitary engineers in suffering communities was
made by the American Water Works Association (White,
1935~; the U.S. Geological Surrey and U.S. Public Health
Service later began more penetrating reviews.
Notice again was taken of difficulties with supply
beginning in 1953-1954, and USGS analyses were extended
(Wolman, 1955~. The Eastern Seaboard drought of the
1960s inspired a series of more detailed appraisals of
water supply adequacy in the event of persistently low
precipitation. These included the Corps of Engineers
Northeastern United States Water Supply Study (U.S Corps
of Engineers, 1975) and the pioneering appraisal of
adjustment alternatives by Russell et al. (1970~.
Coming along with earlier, 1950s advances in economic
analysis of water resources investments by Kneese
(1959), McKean (1958), Eckstein (1958), Hirshleifer et
al. (1960), Krutilla and Eckstein (1958), Maass et al.
(1962), and others, the methods of examining the
benefits and costs of investment options were specified
for the first time.
The notion of alternatives in water management had
gained wide acceptance between the late 1950s and 1960s,
so that by the fresh drought episodes of the 1970s there
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began to be systematic reviews of the great variety of
measures to increase supply or reduce consumption
(Davis, 1968; Committee on Water, 1966~. Russell et al.
investigated 15 types of adjustments made by 39
communities (see Table 1-2~.
It remained for the long dry spells of the 1970s to
set off a series of investigations of the precise
conditions in which consumers would adopt water
conservation measures. D. D. Baumann, J. H. Sims, J. J.
Boland, W. H. Bruvold, and many others began to look at
individual and community response to drought-restricted
water supplies. Water conservation methods were
evaluated in 1979 and 1982, and demand forecast
approaches were appraised (Baumann et al., 1979; Boland
et al., 1981 and 1982~. They carried this a further,
reasonable step to the specification of methods by which
community planners could effectively canvass and compare
their options with an eye to public acceptance of
unconventional supply and demand management measures
(Sims et al., 1982~.
During recent years the time horizon has extended
backward and forward. Using tree-ring, clay verve,
TABLE 1-2 Adjustments to Drought Made by 39
Massachusetts Communities (Percentage Adopting)
and
To Decrease Withdrawals To Increase Supply
Restrictions
Domestic 87
Industrial 59
New sources
Reservoirs
13
Ground water 49
Price 15 Improve existing
Reservoir 26
Meter 8 Ground water 16
Leak repair 8 Emergency supplies
26
23
18
Surface
Ground
Purchase
Weather modification 2
SOURCE: Russell et al. (1970)
.
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archeological findings, it has become-apparent that the
disappearance of the Anasazi civilization of the
Southwest during the thirteenth century A.D. coincided
with a drought of greater duration and depth than those
in recorded history. Regardless of any possible causal
relation between the two, the lack of established change
in climate patterns since that period supports the
suggestions that the Southwest region, including the
Colorado Basin, may again experience a similar episode
and that it would be prudent to plan for that
recurrence. Such an event could be thought of as the
ultimate test for drought management in that region.
Looking ahead to a drought period in the twenty-first
century when the climate warming induced by buildups of
carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere might
begin to increase temperatures and change precipitation
patterns, it is now speculated that a chronic condition
of moisture shortage might unfold (Revelle and Waggoner,
1983~. It might not be cyclical if it were to take
place; a new base on which drought deviation might be
calculated then would be established.
From both the historical and the futuristic
speculations, the severity of possible future droughts
is increased. It should be observed, however, that the
social effects upon cities in the Southwest are not as
likely to disrupt the social fabric as would similar
magnitude events in the humid eastern regions. This
would be because of the prevailing patterns of urban
population, water use, and ground water (Engelbert and
Scheuring, 1984~.
SPACE
At least four spatial dimensions of the urban water
supply situation interact to affect in quite different
ways the vulnerability of cities to drought. These are
population size, rates of growth or decline,
ground-water availability, and agricultural use of water.
Records of past drought episodes suggest that, with
notable exceptions, it is the smaller municipalities and
those with poor planning and meager surface water
supplies that have higher probabilities of suffering
shortage. Even where ground water of potable quality is
physically available, towns may encounter shortage
through poor management. A study of small Colorado
towns illustrates this relationship (White et al., 1980~.
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It is sometimes argued that rapidly growing cities are
more vulnerable to distress induced by drought than
cities with no growth or very slow growth. Over periods
of a few years this may be true, but over decades the
opposite might hold. cities not faced with early
expansion may neglect planning for increasing supply or
improving management (Ellinghouse and McCoy, 1982~.
Those who already foresee a limit to available supply
may be obliged to give explicit consideration to the
probability that projected additional supplies may fall
short of demand in dry periods.
Those with access to good quality ground water often
find ways of improvising in times of shortage or of
providing in advance for reserves to be available.
Thus, cities located in the glaciated Central Plains may
be more likely to provide reserve or emergency supplies
when surface sources attenuate than those in the
unglaciated Central Plains (Heath, 1984~. Growth in
ground-water withdrawals for public supply has been
modest in comparison with that for agricultural uses
(Solley et al., 1983~. Major increases in such
withdrawals have been in the western states,
particularly the Great Plains states. A comparison of
ground-water availability with proportions of supply
currently drawn from surface sources would give a first,
rough delimitation of areas where the ground-water
alternative might be promising.
Of basic importance is the availability of water in
agricultural uses. Passing over, but not dismissing,
the legal barriers to transfer of water rights, it is
possible in large areas of the country practicing
irrigation from collective distribution systems that, in
the event of water shortage, water could be diverted
from agriculture to municipal and industrial uses.
Temporary loans during dry years are made by farmers
without suffering distress. The Asilomar Conference
developed the general argument that the expanding needs
from urban users in the western states could be met by
transfers from irrigation without crippling U.S.
agriculture and with only local areas of social
dislocation (Engelbert and Scheuring, 1984~. In areas
where cities favor permanent acquisition of irrigation
rights rather than developing new sources, the effects
on prime land however, may be destructive (Anderson et
al., 1976~.
The statistics on national water withdrawals and
consumptive use by main sectors of the economy are well
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known (U.S. Water Resources Council, 1978~. Aggregated
national figures are not meaningful, but the regional
data on consumptive use as a percentage of renewable
supply show those areas where reductions in irrigation
use could remedy temporary shortages in urban supply
(USGS, 1984~. Public supplies account for only a small
proportion, less than 7 percent of withdrawals and 5
percent of consumption.
ORGANIZATION
Institutional and administrative dimensions can be
thought of as falling into four classes: organizational
competence, legal and administrative capacity, technical
skill in analysis, and basic data for analysis.
Organizational incompetence already has been noted in
connection with size of cities. No doubt the smaller
ones as a class are most likely to display it, but even
the largest U.S. city at one period suffered
dramatically from inadequate planning. It may be asked
whether the prevailing flows of information and
federal-state-local planning arrangements provide
assurance that such crises will not recur.
On the legal and administrative fronts, the
exploration of the opportunities and constraints
inherent in state water law and federal claims is going
forward rapidly. Spurred by recent Supreme Court
decisions, the possibilities for interstate transfers of
water rights are receiving searching attention.
Assertions of Native American and federal reserve claims
are troubling communities that might have considered
their supplies as certain. Largely at the initiative of
environmental advocacy groups, pioneering efforts have
been launched to promote water conservation measures in
the Imperial Valley and to manage demand as a substitute
for structural measures in the Denver metropolitan area.
Less conspicuous but possibly as significant is the
evolution of regional or district institutional
machinery to plan and operate water and waste disposal
systems encompassing several cities. There now is
sufficient time, for example, to appraise the
effectiveness of the Delaware Basin compact accords and
organization in dealing with the current low flows.
The Clean Drinking Water Act of 1974 complicated the
planning of community response to temporary supply
shortage. By requiring states to exercise regulation of
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quality and to provide information on current water
quality, it made it more difficult for communities to
turn to substitute supplies or to justify continuing
with supplies that have been impaired by contamination
and concentration.
Although there is high sophistication in some of the
methods available for weighing
_ _O ---O the economic effects of
options In managing supply and demand, there also is
challenge in trying to make those practically useful to
city officials and consultants. The Baumann group made
such a down-to-earth effort (Planning and Management
Consultants, 1980 and 1981.) The Purdue examination of
the acceptability of water conservation and associated
wastewater measures to government officials and their
publics was another step in helping specify the
conditions in which community planning to prevent
shortage can gain financial support (Potter et al.,
1978~. Federal attempts to promote water conservation
launched in 1978 continue on a reduced scale (U.S. GAO,
1983~. Reviews of promising management techniques are
available (U.S. OTA, 1982~. In a broad sense, every
improved method of identifying and evaluating choices in
multiobjective water planning may further that end.
But the more traditional economic analysis is not
often harnessed with behavioral investigations of the
circumstances in which public officials and consultants
use new information, of consumer attitudes and action
toward water conservation measures, of the long-time
effects of pricing policies, and of the costs and
benefits of undertaking no mitigation actions.
As a matter of record, no U.S. city has gone without
drinking water in the face of crippling drought. None,
like the Anasazis, has moved away. All sorts of
emergency measures are being or may be taken, including
rationing, temporary supplemental sources, intermittent
service, and hauling water. In Colorado during the
1970s drought, the most ineffective municipalities
resorted to such measures and were rewarded by receiving
state and federal emergency financial assistance. We
lack full, discerning estimation of the whole set of
effects of taking emergency measures on public health,
on financial stability, and on the political stances of
officials and legislators in time of emergency.
It has been suggested that agreement on some
acceptable level of risk from drought, such as the
analogous setting of the one percent chance flood for
design of flood insurance and other floodplain
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management measures, might be beneficial. However, the
wisdom of adopting such criterion for drought is
doubtful. For certain areas and in circumstances in
which a blanket national system of flood insurance is
imposed hastily, it may be warranted. In the long run,
however, it discourages evaluation of the particular
combination of resources use gains and flood losses that
affect the productivity of a given floodplain, and it
encourages a false sense of security in areas subject to
less frequent floods. Surely there are more suitable
means of establishing acceptable drought risk, area by
area.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
By way of conclusion and as a means of generating
discussion of some of the conventional wisdom in the
field, I offer a few observations about the state of the
science--and the art--of drought management.
The long onset times and duration of droughts should
make it possible to refine the forecasts of moisture
shortage so as to render them more useful to waterworks
operators. The experience with forecasting of the
probability of hurricane landfall might offer lessons as
to pitfalls and opportunities.
The provision of suitable data and technical
assistance to municipal governments lacking the
competence or willingness to anticipate drought
currently is far from effective, and there is question
as to how it might be enhanced.
The innovation and testing of new legal and
administrative devices to permit municipalities to join
in water management, to operate a market for water
rights, and to share experience in planning and gaining
public acceptance for water conservation measures
deserve vigorous support beyond what is already under
way.
REFERENCES
Anderson, R. L., N. L. Wengert, R. D. Hal, and others.
1976. The Physical and Economic Effects on the Local
Agricultural Economy of Water Transfer from Irrigation
Companies to Cities in the Northern Denver
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Metropolitan Area. NRED, Economic Research Service,
Ft. Collins, Colo. 48 pp.
Baumann, D. D., and others. 1979. The Role of
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the Institute for Water Resources, Fort Belvoir, Va.
117 pp.
Boland, J. J., D. D. Baumann, and B. Dziegielewski.
1981. An Assessment of Municipal and Industrial Water
Use Forecasting Approaches. Prepared for the
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PP
Boland, J., B. Dziegielewski, D. Baumann, and C. Turner.
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Burton, I., R. W. Kates, and G. F. White. 1978. The
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Heath, R. C. 1984. Ground-water Regions of the United
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Davis, R. K. 1968. The Range of Choice in Water
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196 pp.
Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, Md.
Eckstein, O. 1958. Water-Resource Development: The
Economics of Project Evaluation. Harvard University
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_ ~ ~ A
Ellinghouse, C., and G. McCoy. 1982. The Effects of
Water Conservation on New Water Supply for Urban
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Engelbert, E. A., and A. Foley Scheuring (eds.~. 1984.
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378 pp.
Kneese, A. V. 1959. Water Resources:
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Development and
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Maass, A., M. M. Hufschmidt, R. D orfman, H. A. Thomas,
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McKean, R. N. 1958. Efficiency in Government Through
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Potter, H. K., A. K. Taylor, and G. M. Grossman. 1978.
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Russell, C. S., D. G. Arey, and R. W. Kates, with the
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Sims, J. H., D. D. Baumann, J. J. Boland, K. Alley, and
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U.S. General Accounting Office. 1983. Water
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
water resources
