Toward Improved Modeling of Retirement Income Policies

Interim Report

Panel on Retirement Income Modeling

Committee on National Statistics

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1995



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Toward Improved Modeling of Retirement Income Policies: Interim Report Toward Improved Modeling of Retirement Income Policies Interim Report Panel on Retirement Income Modeling Committee on National Statistics Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1995

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Toward Improved Modeling of Retirement Income Policies: Interim Report NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Harold Liebowitz is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. Harold Liebowitz are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. The project that is the subject of this report is supported by funds from the Pension and Welfare Benefits Administration of the U.S. Department of Labor, the National Institute on Aging of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and TIAA-CREF. Copyright 1995 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Additional copies of this report are available from: Committee on National Statistics National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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Toward Improved Modeling of Retirement Income Policies: Interim Report PANEL ON RETIREMENT INCOME MODELING ERIC A. HANUSHEK (Chair), W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy, University of Rochester ALAN J. AUERBACH, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley OLIVIA S. MITCHELL, Department of Insurance and Risk Management, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania SAMUEL H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania JOHN P. RUST, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison TIMOTHY M. SMEEDING, Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University JAMES P. SMITH, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director NANCY L. MARITATO, Consultant CANDICE S. EVANS, Project Assistant AGNES GASKIN, Senior Project Assistant

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Toward Improved Modeling of Retirement Income Policies: Interim Report COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 1994-1995 NORMAN M. BRADBURN (Chair), National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago JOHN E. ROLPH (Vice Chair), Department of Information and Operations Management, University of Southern California, Los Angeles JOHN F. GEWEKE, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota JOEL B. GREENHOUSE, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University ERIC A. HANUSHEK, W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy, University of Rochester ROBERT M. HAUSER, Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin-Madison NICHOLAS JEWELL, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley WILLIAM NORDHAUS, Department of Economics, Yale University JANET NORWOOD, The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. EDWARD B. PERRIN, Department of Health Services, University of Washington KEITH F. RUST, Westat, Inc., Rockville, Maryland DANIEL L. SOLOMON, College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, North Carolina State University MIRON L. STRAF, Director SUSANNA McFARLAND, Division Administrator