International Benchmarking of US Mathematics Research (1997)

RE: Mathematics Research Benchmarking Report

Dear Dr. Gibbons:

In 1993, the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP) of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine issued the report Science, Technology, and The Federal Government: National Goals For a New Era. In that report, COSEPUP suggested that the United States adopt the principle of being among the world leaders in all major fields of science so that it can quickly apply and extend advances in science wherever they occur. In addition, the report recommended that the United States maintain clear leadership in fields that are tied to national objectives, that capture the imagination of society, or that have multiplicative effect on other scientific advances. These recommendations were reiterated in another Academy report, Allocating Federal Funds for Science and Technology, by a committee chaired by Frank Press.

To measure international leadership, the reports recommended the establishment of independent panels that would conduct comparative international assessments of scientific accomplishments of particular research fields. COSEPUP indicated that these panels should consist of researchers who work in the specific fields under review (both from the United States and abroad), people who work in closely related fields, and research users who follow the fields closely.

To test the feasibility of that recommendation, COSEPUP is conducting experimental evaluations of three fields: mathematics, materials science and engineering, and immunology. The panel for each field has been asked to address the following questions:

• What is the position of the United States in research in the field relative to that in other regions or countries?

• What key factors influence relative US performance in the field?

• On the basis of current trends in the United States and abroad, what will be the relative US position in the near term and the longer term?

Panels were asked to develop findings and conclusions, but not recommendations.

Attached to this letter is the first of these assessments--that of the field of mathematics. The panel found that today US mathematical research is thriving and preeminent in the world, as demonstrated by the numerous achievements of US mathematicians in mathematics itself and in scientific, engineering, medical, and industrial applications.

Key factors that have brought US mathematics to this leadership position are the strength of the research universities, the funding of mathematical research by the US government, and the ability of the United States in the last 60 years to attract foreign talent. Increased employment of mathematicians in industry is a very positive trend.

It is hard to predict the future, but the panel sees storm clouds on the horizon. Widespread financial pressures have forced research universities to reduce the size of their graduate programs and the number of permanent faculty. The number of full-time PhD students in mathematics has steadily decreased since a high in 1992. Furthermore, since 1989 the number of academic positions for which new PhDs could apply has fallen by one-third. Government funding for academic mathematics is one of the great uncertainties of the future. In addition, because of improving conditions for mathematicians abroad and restrictive US regulations, the United States might not be able to continue to rely on foreign talent.

The other assessments will probably be released in the winter of 1998. Once all three studies are completed, COSEPUP will discuss the feasibility and utility of the benchmarking process and make whatever recommendations it deems necessary.

I hope you will find the results useful.

Sincerely,

Phillip A. Griffiths

Chair