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Research Briefings _~^ ~ l

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R- research Brlenn~s _ for the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the National Science Foundation, and Selected Federal Departments ant! Agencies Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1986

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National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by Act of Congress as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation for the furtherance of science and technology for the general welfare. The terms of its charter require the National Academy of Sciences to advise the federal government upon request within its fields of competence. Under this corporate charter, the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively. The Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy is a joint committee of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. It includes members of the councils of all three bodies. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant LDA8501382. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 86-61858 International Standard Book Number 0-309-03689-5 Copyright @) 1986 by the National Academy of Sciences No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic process, or in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written per- mission from the publisher, except for purposes of official use by the United States government. Printed in the United States of America

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Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy GILBERT S. OMENN, Dean, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Wash. (Chairman) H. NORMAN ABRAMSON, Executive Vice-President, Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, Tex. FLOYD E. BLOOM, Director and Member, Division of Pre-Clinical Neuroscience anct Endocrinology, Scripps Clinic and Research Foundation La JolIa, Calif. W. DALE COMPTON, Senior Fellow, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, D.C. EMIT~IO Q. DADDARIO, Wilkes, Artis, Hedrick and Lane, Attorneys at Law, Washington, D.C. GERALD P. DINNEEN, Vice-President, Science and Technology, Honeywell, Inc., Minneapolis, Minn. RALPH E. GOMORY, Senior Vice- President and Director of Research, Thomas l. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation, Yorktown Heights, N.Y. term expired June 30, 1986. ZV] GRILICHES, Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Cambriclge, Mass. ARTHUR KELMAN, Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation Senior Research Professor of Plant Pathology and Bacteriology, Department of Plant Pathology, Universitv of Wisconsin. Madison, Wis. , $PHILIP LEDER, John Emory Andrus Professor and Chairman, Department of Genetics, Harvard Medical School, Cambridge, Mass. FRANCIS E. LOW, Institute Professor, Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass. EDWARD A. MASON, Vice-President, Research, Amoco Corporation, Amoco Research Center, Naperville, Ill. DANIEL NATHANS, Professor, Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Md. JOHN D. ROBERTS, Institute Professor of Chemistry, Gates and Crellin Laboratories of Chemistry, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, Calif. v

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KENNETH J. RYAN, Kate Macy Ladd Professor of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Harvard Medical School, and Chairman, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Mass. LEON T. SILVER, William M. Keck Foundation Professor of Geology, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, Calif. HERBERT A. SIMON, Professor of Computer Science and Psychology, Department of Psychology, Carnegie- Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pa. IF. KARL WILLENBROCK, Cecil H. Green Professor of Engineering, School of Engineering and Applied Science, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Tex. term expired June 30, 1986. V1 Ex Officio FRANK PRESS, President, National Academy of Sciences ROBERT M. WHITE, President, National Academy of Engineering SAMUEL O. THIER, President, Institute of Medicine COSEPUP Staff ALLAN R. HOFFMAN, Executive Director BARBARA A. CANDLAND, Administrative Coordinator JOANNA MASTANTUONO, Senior Secretary

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Preface Research Briefings 1986 is the fifth volume of research briefing reports on selected areas of science and technology prepared by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP). ~ The briefings are prepared at the request of the President's Science Advisor, who also serves as Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), and the Director of the National Science Foundation (NSF). The four individual reports in this volume bring to 32 the number of such reports de- veloped by COSEPUP. A list of the subjects covered in Research Briefings volumes each year since 1982 is appended to this preface. Together they constitute a rich set of as- sessments of recent advances and high- leverage research opportunities in a large number of critical fields of science and tech- nology. In addition to their collective value, in- dividual briefing reports have had signifi- cant impact in their respective fields. For ~COSEPUP is a joint committee of the National Acad- emy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer- ing, and the Institute of Medicine, which together are known as the National Academy complex. - V11 example, Dr. George Keyworth II (Presi- dential Science Advisor when the briefings were initiated) has noted that the research briefing on Computers in Design and Man- ufacturing "led almost directly and auicidv to an important new program of Eng~neer- ing Research Centers in the National Sci- ence Foundation." Other research briefings have influenced federal priorities and fund- ing in mathematics, astronomy and astro- physics, plant sciences, and the solid earth sciences. Often, briefings have highlighted interdisciplinary connections, as in neuro- science, materials science, cognitive science and artificial intelligence, and biotechnol- ogy. Clearly, the research briefing activity has become an important new means of co- operation between the federal government and the National Academy complex. As it has evolved through five annual rounds, the research briefing activity in- volves, first, the selection of topics by the OSTP and NSF directors in response to sug- gestions offered by COSEPUP. The brief- ings are then developed by panels of experts charged with assessing the status of the field and identifying those research areas within the field likely to return the highest scientific dividends as a result of near-term federal

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investment. COSEPUP then reviews the briefings before their presentation in oral and written form to officials in the White House, the National Science Foundation, other executive branch departments and agencies, and the Congress. The briefing re- ports, which are published and made widely available by the National Academy Press, are used in evaluations of the state of U.S. science and technology and in development and review of budget proposals. Development of the briefings depends on the cooperative efforts of many: the scien- tists and engineers who serve in a volunteer RESEARCH BRIEFING TOPICS 1986 1. Science of Interfaces and Thin Films 2. Decision Making and Problem Solving 3. Protein Structure and Biological Function 4. Prevention and Treatment of Viral Diseases 1985 1. Remote Sensing of the Earth 2. Pain and Pain Management 3. Biotechnology in Agriculture 4. Weather Prediction Technologies 5. Ceramics and Ceramic Composites 6. Scientific Frontiers and the Superconducting Super CoDider 7. Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition 1984 1. Computer Architecture 2. Information Technology in Precollege Education 3. Chemical and Process Engineering for Biotechnology 4. High-Performance Polymer Composites The reports listed here are published in Research Brief- ings 1986, Research Briefings 1985, etc., by the National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. capacity on the panels; those in the Science Adwsor's office and the National Science Foundation who provide guidance and sup- port throughout the process; and the Na- tional Academy complex staff who recom- mend potential topics and whose dedicated efforts facilitate the day-to-day activities of the briefing panels. To all, COSEPUP ex- presses deep appreciation and sincere thanks. Gilbert S. Omenn, Chairman Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy 1984 (Continue]) 5. Biology of Oncogenes 6. Interactions Between Blood and Blood Vessels (Including the Biology of Atherosclerosis) 7. Biology of Parasitism S. Solar Terrestrial Plasma Physics 9. Selected Opportunities in Physics 1983 1. Selected Opportunities in Chemistry 2. Cognitive Science and Artificial Intelligence 3. Immunology 4. Solid Earth Sciences 5. Computers in Design and Manufacturing 1982 I. Mathematics 2. Atmospheric Sciences 3. Astronomy and Astrophysics 4. Agricultural Research 5. Neuroscience 6. Materials Science 7. Human Health Effects of Hazardous Chemical Exposures . . Vlll

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Contents Report of the Research Briefing Panel on Science of Interfaces and Thin Films Report of the Research Briefing Panel on Decision Making and Problem Solving Report of the Research Briefing Panel on Protein Structure and Biological Function Report of the Research Briefing Panel on Prevention and Treatment of Viral Diseases - 1X 1 17 37 49

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