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Research
Briefings
_~^ ~
l
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R- research
Brlenn~s
_
for the Office of Science and Technology Policy,
the National Science Foundation,
and Selected Federal Departments ant! Agencies
Committee on Science, Engineering,
and Public Policy
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1986
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National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by Act of Congress
as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation for the furtherance of
science and technology for the general welfare. The terms of its charter require the
National Academy of Sciences to advise the federal government upon request within its
fields of competence. Under this corporate charter, the National Academy of Engineering
and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively.
The Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy is a joint committee of the
National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine. It includes members of the councils of all three bodies.
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant LDA8501382.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 86-61858
International Standard Book Number 0-309-03689-5
Copyright @) 1986 by the National Academy of Sciences
No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic
process, or in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval
system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written per-
mission from the publisher, except for purposes of official use by the United States
government.
Printed in the United States of America
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Committee on Science,
Engineering, and Public Policy
GILBERT S. OMENN, Dean, School of
Public Health and Community
Medicine, University of Washington,
Seattle, Wash. (Chairman)
H. NORMAN ABRAMSON, Executive
Vice-President, Southwest Research
Institute, San Antonio, Tex.
FLOYD E. BLOOM, Director and
Member, Division of Pre-Clinical
Neuroscience anct Endocrinology,
Scripps Clinic and Research Foundation
La JolIa, Calif.
W. DALE COMPTON, Senior Fellow,
National Academy of Engineering,
Washington, D.C.
EMIT~IO Q. DADDARIO, Wilkes, Artis,
Hedrick and Lane, Attorneys at Law,
Washington, D.C.
GERALD P. DINNEEN, Vice-President,
Science and Technology, Honeywell,
Inc., Minneapolis, Minn.
RALPH E. GOMORY, Senior Vice-
President and Director of Research,
Thomas l. Watson Research Center,
IBM Corporation, Yorktown Heights,
N.Y.
term expired June 30, 1986.
ZV] GRILICHES, Professor of Economics,
Harvard University, Cambriclge, Mass.
ARTHUR KELMAN, Wisconsin Alumni
Research Foundation Senior Research
Professor of Plant Pathology and
Bacteriology, Department of Plant
Pathology, Universitv of Wisconsin.
Madison, Wis.
,
$PHILIP LEDER, John Emory Andrus
Professor and Chairman, Department of
Genetics, Harvard Medical School,
Cambridge, Mass.
FRANCIS E. LOW, Institute Professor,
Department of Physics, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
Mass.
EDWARD A. MASON, Vice-President,
Research, Amoco Corporation, Amoco
Research Center, Naperville, Ill.
DANIEL NATHANS, Professor,
Department of Molecular Biology and
Genetics, Johns Hopkins University
School of Medicine, Baltimore, Md.
JOHN D. ROBERTS, Institute Professor of
Chemistry, Gates and Crellin
Laboratories of Chemistry, California
Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
Calif.
v
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KENNETH J. RYAN, Kate Macy Ladd
Professor of Obstetrics and Gynecology,
Harvard Medical School, and Chairman,
Department of Obstetrics and
Gynecology, Brigham and Women's
Hospital, Boston, Mass.
LEON T. SILVER, William M. Keck
Foundation Professor of Geology,
Division of Geological and Planetary
Sciences, California Institute of
Technology, Pasadena, Calif.
HERBERT A. SIMON, Professor of
Computer Science and Psychology,
Department of Psychology, Carnegie-
Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pa.
IF. KARL WILLENBROCK, Cecil H.
Green Professor of Engineering, School
of Engineering and Applied Science,
Southern Methodist University, Dallas,
Tex.
term expired June 30, 1986.
V1
Ex Officio
FRANK PRESS, President, National
Academy of Sciences
ROBERT M. WHITE, President, National
Academy of Engineering
SAMUEL O. THIER, President, Institute
of Medicine
COSEPUP Staff
ALLAN R. HOFFMAN, Executive Director
BARBARA A. CANDLAND,
Administrative Coordinator
JOANNA MASTANTUONO, Senior
Secretary
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Preface
Research Briefings 1986 is the fifth volume
of research briefing reports on selected areas
of science and technology prepared by the
Committee on Science, Engineering, and
Public Policy (COSEPUP). ~ The briefings are
prepared at the request of the President's
Science Advisor, who also serves as Director
of the White House Office of Science and
Technology Policy (OSTP), and the Director
of the National Science Foundation (NSF).
The four individual reports in this volume
bring to 32 the number of such reports de-
veloped by COSEPUP. A list of the subjects
covered in Research Briefings volumes each
year since 1982 is appended to this preface.
Together they constitute a rich set of as-
sessments of recent advances and high-
leverage research opportunities in a large
number of critical fields of science and tech-
nology.
In addition to their collective value, in-
dividual briefing reports have had signifi-
cant impact in their respective fields. For
~COSEPUP is a joint committee of the National Acad-
emy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer-
ing, and the Institute of Medicine, which together are
known as the National Academy complex.
· -
V11
example, Dr. George Keyworth II (Presi-
dential Science Advisor when the briefings
were initiated) has noted that the research
briefing on Computers in Design and Man-
ufacturing "led almost directly and auicidv
to an important new program of Eng~neer-
ing Research Centers in the National Sci-
ence Foundation." Other research briefings
have influenced federal priorities and fund-
ing in mathematics, astronomy and astro-
physics, plant sciences, and the solid earth
sciences. Often, briefings have highlighted
interdisciplinary connections, as in neuro-
science, materials science, cognitive science
and artificial intelligence, and biotechnol-
ogy. Clearly, the research briefing activity
has become an important new means of co-
operation between the federal government
and the National Academy complex.
As it has evolved through five annual
rounds, the research briefing activity in-
volves, first, the selection of topics by the
OSTP and NSF directors in response to sug-
gestions offered by COSEPUP. The brief-
ings are then developed by panels of experts
charged with assessing the status of the field
and identifying those research areas within
the field likely to return the highest scientific
dividends as a result of near-term federal
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investment. COSEPUP then reviews the
briefings before their presentation in oral
and written form to officials in the White
House, the National Science Foundation,
other executive branch departments and
agencies, and the Congress. The briefing re-
ports, which are published and made widely
available by the National Academy Press,
are used in evaluations of the state of U.S.
science and technology and in development
and review of budget proposals.
Development of the briefings depends on
the cooperative efforts of many: the scien-
tists and engineers who serve in a volunteer
RESEARCH BRIEFING TOPICS
1986
1. Science of Interfaces and Thin Films
2. Decision Making and Problem
Solving
3. Protein Structure and Biological
Function
4. Prevention and Treatment of Viral
Diseases
1985
1. Remote Sensing of the Earth
2. Pain and Pain Management
3. Biotechnology in Agriculture
4. Weather Prediction Technologies
5. Ceramics and Ceramic Composites
6. Scientific Frontiers and the
Superconducting Super CoDider
7. Computer Vision and Pattern
Recognition
1984
1. Computer Architecture
2. Information Technology in Precollege
Education
3. Chemical and Process Engineering
for Biotechnology
4. High-Performance Polymer
Composites
The reports listed here are published in Research Brief-
ings 1986, Research Briefings 1985, etc., by the National
Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
capacity on the panels; those in the Science
Adwsor's office and the National Science
Foundation who provide guidance and sup-
port throughout the process; and the Na-
tional Academy complex staff who recom-
mend potential topics and whose dedicated
efforts facilitate the day-to-day activities of
the briefing panels. To all, COSEPUP ex-
presses deep appreciation and sincere thanks.
Gilbert S. Omenn, Chairman
Committee on Science, Engineering,
and Public Policy
1984 (Continue])
5. Biology of Oncogenes
6. Interactions Between Blood and
Blood Vessels (Including the Biology
of Atherosclerosis)
7. Biology of Parasitism
S. Solar Terrestrial Plasma Physics
9. Selected Opportunities in Physics
1983
1. Selected Opportunities in Chemistry
2. Cognitive Science and Artificial
Intelligence
3. Immunology
4. Solid Earth Sciences
5. Computers in Design and
Manufacturing
1982
I. Mathematics
2. Atmospheric Sciences
3. Astronomy and Astrophysics
4. Agricultural Research
5. Neuroscience
6. Materials Science
7. Human Health Effects of Hazardous
Chemical Exposures
· . .
Vlll
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Contents
Report of the Research Briefing Panel on Science of
Interfaces and Thin Films
Report of the Research Briefing Panel on Decision Making
and Problem Solving
Report of the Research Briefing Panel on Protein Structure
and Biological Function
Report of the Research Briefing Panel on Prevention
and Treatment of Viral Diseases
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1X
1
17
37
49
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