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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE
APPENDIX D
TIME-SERIES TABLES
Table D-1 ,Table D-2 ,Table D-3, Table D-4 through Table D-5 show time-series data for survey years 1977, 1981, 1985, 1989, and 1991 for the variables field of doctorate, selected, demographic variables, employment status, employment sector, and primary work activity. These tables control for the effects of the 1991 methodological changes discussed in Appendix A. The objective of making the data as comparable as possible across survey years was accomplished in two ways:
to control for the effects of the higher response rate in 1991, the 1991 estimates were based only on mail respondents, as was the case in years 1977 to 1989;
the 1991 changes to the sampling frame regarding eligibility for inclusion were retrofitted to the 1977-1989 respondent group.
This means that respondents who were 75 or younger were included in the base for estimation. Further, they were counted according to the degree field they specified at the time of degree award, rather than according to a later revision.
The time-series tables do not show estimated totals (or counts), but rather, rates of change between 1977 and subsequent survey years. This is because totals for the years 1977 to 1989 would disagree with those published in earlier years, and totals in 1991 (based only on mail respondents) would disagree with numbers shown earlier in this report, possibly causing confusion and misinterpretation. The rates shown in these tables are indexed to 1977, meaning they show the growth rate in population size between 1977 and a subsequent year. By focusing on relative changes, the index numbers allow the comparison of different populations without regard to their absolute size.
Following are examples of how the tables should be interpreted. Table D-1 shows that the total humanities population (labeled “All Fields”) grew by 16.9 percent between 1977 and 1981, and by 54.3 percent between 1977 and 1991. Table D-3 shows the number of humanities doctorates employed full-time grew by 47.4 percent between 1977 and 1991. In comparison, the number employed part-time grew by 154.1 percent (or about one and one-half times) in that period. On the other hand, some populations experienced a decline. Table D-2 shows that the number of humanities doctorates under age 40 declined by 43.1 percent between 1977 and 1991 (calculated by subtracting 56.9 from 100.0).
There are limitations to these time-series tables of which the reader should be aware. One is that it was not possible to “bridge” the change in sample design or sample size between 1991 and earlier years. Thus, 1991 estimates are based on a sample comprising 44 strata, compared with about 250 strata in earlier years, and on a different set of stratification variables. This affected the weighting and sometimes produced anomalous results. For example, in Table D-1, the field American history was not used in stratification between 1977 and 1989 and shows a decline in numbers in 1991, when it was used to stratify the sample. Stratification better controlled the variance associated with that field and probably produced a more accurate estimate in 1991. (This decline is separate from that noted in Appendix A, caused by the change in the definition of “field”).
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OCR for page 67
HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE
APPENDIX D
TIME-SERIES TABLES
Table D-1 ,Table D-2 ,Table D-3, Table D-4 through Table D-5 show time-series data for survey years 1977, 1981, 1985, 1989, and 1991 for the variables field of doctorate, selected, demographic variables, employment status, employment sector, and primary work activity. These tables control for the effects of the 1991 methodological changes discussed in Appendix A. The objective of making the data as comparable as possible across survey years was accomplished in two ways:
to control for the effects of the higher response rate in 1991, the 1991 estimates were based only on mail respondents, as was the case in years 1977 to 1989;
the 1991 changes to the sampling frame regarding eligibility for inclusion were retrofitted to the 1977-1989 respondent group.
This means that respondents who were 75 or younger were included in the base for estimation. Further, they were counted according to the degree field they specified at the time of degree award, rather than according to a later revision.
The time-series tables do not show estimated totals (or counts), but rather, rates of change between 1977 and subsequent survey years. This is because totals for the years 1977 to 1989 would disagree with those published in earlier years, and totals in 1991 (based only on mail respondents) would disagree with numbers shown earlier in this report, possibly causing confusion and misinterpretation. The rates shown in these tables are indexed to 1977, meaning they show the growth rate in population size between 1977 and a subsequent year. By focusing on relative changes, the index numbers allow the comparison of different populations without regard to their absolute size.
Following are examples of how the tables should be interpreted. Table D-1 shows that the total humanities population (labeled “All Fields”) grew by 16.9 percent between 1977 and 1981, and by 54.3 percent between 1977 and 1991. Table D-3 shows the number of humanities doctorates employed full-time grew by 47.4 percent between 1977 and 1991. In comparison, the number employed part-time grew by 154.1 percent (or about one and one-half times) in that period. On the other hand, some populations experienced a decline. Table D-2 shows that the number of humanities doctorates under age 40 declined by 43.1 percent between 1977 and 1991 (calculated by subtracting 56.9 from 100.0).
There are limitations to these time-series tables of which the reader should be aware. One is that it was not possible to “bridge” the change in sample design or sample size between 1991 and earlier years. Thus, 1991 estimates are based on a sample comprising 44 strata, compared with about 250 strata in earlier years, and on a different set of stratification variables. This affected the weighting and sometimes produced anomalous results. For example, in Table D-1, the field American history was not used in stratification between 1977 and 1989 and shows a decline in numbers in 1991, when it was used to stratify the sample. Stratification better controlled the variance associated with that field and probably produced a more accurate estimate in 1991. (This decline is separate from that noted in Appendix A, caused by the change in the definition of “field”).
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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE
Another limitation is that rates of change can be misleading if interpreted in isolation. For example, although the number of Hispanic humanities doctorates more than doubled between 1977 and 1991, they still represented only a small fraction of the total in 1991, about 3.3 percent. Therefore, large growth rates do not necessarily indicate large gains in numbers.
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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE
TABLE D-1 Humanities Ph.D.s, by Field of Doctorate, 1977 to 1991 (indexed to 1977)
Field of Doctorate
1977
1981
1985
1989
1991
All Fields
100.0
116.9
134.0
147.8
154.3
American History
100.0
134.2
156.9
182.4
174.6
“Other History”
100.0
108.5
115.3
116.7
121.8
Art History
100.0
134.5
168.5
196.8
205.0
Music
100.0
139.2
179.6
222.1
246.8
Speech/Theater
100.0
104.0
111.0
116.8
123.0
Philosophy
100.0
112.1
127.7
137.2
144.1
Eng & Amer Lang/Lit
100.0
115.5
126.5
136.7
140.5
Classical Lang/Lit
100.0
105.6
107.6
112.6
113.4
Modern Lang/Lit
100.0
120.8
135.8
149.9
153.2
“Other Humanities”
100.0
125.2
202.8
255.1
288.7
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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE
TABLE D-2 Demographic Characteristics of Humanities Ph.D.s, 1977 to 1991 (indexed to 1977)
Demographic Characteristics
1977
1981
1985
1989
1991
Total Population
100.0
116.9
134.0
147.8
154.3
Gender
Men
100.0
112.0
123.8
132.5
135.4
Women
100.0
133.0
166.7
197.6
215.7
Racial/Ethnic Group
White
100.0
121.1
137.8
152.0
159.2
Minority Group
100.0
148.7
189.2
216.4
212.4
Hispanic
100.0
157.7
186.3
224.4
233.1
Black
100.0
144.0
196.4
209.4
186.3
Asian
100.0
139.7
183.2
202.3
197.0
American Indian
100.0
130.9
219.8
290.1
279.0
Age in Survey Year
Under 40
100.0
96.9
78.6
61.6
56.9
40-49
100.0
136.2
179.4
197.2
190.3
50-59
100.0
126.5
157.4
197.2
230.4
60-69
100.0
129.5
160.1
206.9
229.9
70-75
100.0
100.9
147.8
194.2
227.0
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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE
TABLE D-3 Employment Status of Humanities Ph.D.s, 1977 to 1991 (indexed to 1977)
Employment Status
1977
1981
1985
1989
1991
Total Population
100.0
116.9
134.0
147.8
154.3
Employed Full-Time
100.0
118.8
134.9
143.8
147.4
Employed Part-Time
100.0
143.3
193.9
237.2
254.1
Postdoctoral Appointment
100.0
94.1
49.6
95.4
69.3
Not Employed
100.0
88.9
110.6
147.8
173.8
Seeking Employment
100.0
54.6
69.6
49.0
62.2
Not Seeking Employment
100.0
120.9
131.4
137.1
127.8
Retired
100.0
100.3
126.8
207.8
253.6
Other
100.0
55.8
106.4
93.6
81.5
No Report
100.0
221.4
0.0
7.3
55.6
NOTE: The number of humanities doctorates in the categories Postdoctoral Appointment, Not Employed, and No Report is small. Therefore, small changes in absolute numbers may result in large fluctuations in the relative index.
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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE
TABLE D-4 Type of Employer of Humanities Ph.D.s, 1977 to 1991 (indexed to 1977)
Type of Employer
1977
1981
1985
1989
1991
Employed Population
100.0
119.8
137.2
148.4
152.4
Educational Institution
100.0
114.1
126.1
134.3
134.9
4-Year Coll/Univ/Med School
100.0
113.3
124.1
132.4
131.3
2-Year College
100.0
116.0
139.3
139.1
156.3
Elem/Secondary Schools
100.0
138.3
167.1
188.9
216.3
Business/Industry
100.0
236.6
358.7
438.2
493.4
U.S. Government
100.0
148.6
184.5
224.9
191.6
State/Local Government
100.0
242.3
303.6
213.1
275.5
Nonprofit Organization
100.0
117.5
167.5
196.6
218.6
Other
100.0
122.6
345.2
371.0
358.1
No Report
100.0
104.8
28.6
31.2
150.4
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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE
TABLE D-5 Primary Work Activity of Humanities Ph.D.s, 1977 to 1991 (indexed to 1977)
Primary Work Activity
1977
1981
1985
1989
1991
Employed Population
100.0
119.8
137.2
148.4
152.4
Teaching
100.0
120.7
126.6
136.3
137.9
Management/Administration
100.0
149.5
198.9
243.4
242.4
Research and Development
100.0
101.6
121.5
148.9
123.0
Writing/Editing
100.0
103.8
159.8
142.7
146.5
Consulting/Prof Services
100.0
162.2
231.6
265.6
286.2
Other Activities
100.0
113.8
141.3
177.0
200.5
No Report
100.0
68.6
117.3
40.9
101.5
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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE
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