APPENDIX D

TIME-SERIES TABLES

Table D-1 ,Table D-2 ,Table D-3, Table D-4 through Table D-5 show time-series data for survey years 1977, 1981, 1985, 1989, and 1991 for the variables field of doctorate, selected, demographic variables, employment status, employment sector, and primary work activity. These tables control for the effects of the 1991 methodological changes discussed in Appendix A. The objective of making the data as comparable as possible across survey years was accomplished in two ways:

  1. to control for the effects of the higher response rate in 1991, the 1991 estimates were based only on mail respondents, as was the case in years 1977 to 1989;

  2. the 1991 changes to the sampling frame regarding eligibility for inclusion were retrofitted to the 1977-1989 respondent group.

This means that respondents who were 75 or younger were included in the base for estimation. Further, they were counted according to the degree field they specified at the time of degree award, rather than according to a later revision.

The time-series tables do not show estimated totals (or counts), but rather, rates of change between 1977 and subsequent survey years. This is because totals for the years 1977 to 1989 would disagree with those published in earlier years, and totals in 1991 (based only on mail respondents) would disagree with numbers shown earlier in this report, possibly causing confusion and misinterpretation. The rates shown in these tables are indexed to 1977, meaning they show the growth rate in population size between 1977 and a subsequent year. By focusing on relative changes, the index numbers allow the comparison of different populations without regard to their absolute size.

Following are examples of how the tables should be interpreted. Table D-1 shows that the total humanities population (labeled “All Fields”) grew by 16.9 percent between 1977 and 1981, and by 54.3 percent between 1977 and 1991. Table D-3 shows the number of humanities doctorates employed full-time grew by 47.4 percent between 1977 and 1991. In comparison, the number employed part-time grew by 154.1 percent (or about one and one-half times) in that period. On the other hand, some populations experienced a decline. Table D-2 shows that the number of humanities doctorates under age 40 declined by 43.1 percent between 1977 and 1991 (calculated by subtracting 56.9 from 100.0).

There are limitations to these time-series tables of which the reader should be aware. One is that it was not possible to “bridge” the change in sample design or sample size between 1991 and earlier years. Thus, 1991 estimates are based on a sample comprising 44 strata, compared with about 250 strata in earlier years, and on a different set of stratification variables. This affected the weighting and sometimes produced anomalous results. For example, in Table D-1, the field American history was not used in stratification between 1977 and 1989 and shows a decline in numbers in 1991, when it was used to stratify the sample. Stratification better controlled the variance associated with that field and probably produced a more accurate estimate in 1991. (This decline is separate from that noted in Appendix A, caused by the change in the definition of “field”).



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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE APPENDIX D TIME-SERIES TABLES Table D-1 ,Table D-2 ,Table D-3, Table D-4 through Table D-5 show time-series data for survey years 1977, 1981, 1985, 1989, and 1991 for the variables field of doctorate, selected, demographic variables, employment status, employment sector, and primary work activity. These tables control for the effects of the 1991 methodological changes discussed in Appendix A. The objective of making the data as comparable as possible across survey years was accomplished in two ways: to control for the effects of the higher response rate in 1991, the 1991 estimates were based only on mail respondents, as was the case in years 1977 to 1989; the 1991 changes to the sampling frame regarding eligibility for inclusion were retrofitted to the 1977-1989 respondent group. This means that respondents who were 75 or younger were included in the base for estimation. Further, they were counted according to the degree field they specified at the time of degree award, rather than according to a later revision. The time-series tables do not show estimated totals (or counts), but rather, rates of change between 1977 and subsequent survey years. This is because totals for the years 1977 to 1989 would disagree with those published in earlier years, and totals in 1991 (based only on mail respondents) would disagree with numbers shown earlier in this report, possibly causing confusion and misinterpretation. The rates shown in these tables are indexed to 1977, meaning they show the growth rate in population size between 1977 and a subsequent year. By focusing on relative changes, the index numbers allow the comparison of different populations without regard to their absolute size. Following are examples of how the tables should be interpreted. Table D-1 shows that the total humanities population (labeled “All Fields”) grew by 16.9 percent between 1977 and 1981, and by 54.3 percent between 1977 and 1991. Table D-3 shows the number of humanities doctorates employed full-time grew by 47.4 percent between 1977 and 1991. In comparison, the number employed part-time grew by 154.1 percent (or about one and one-half times) in that period. On the other hand, some populations experienced a decline. Table D-2 shows that the number of humanities doctorates under age 40 declined by 43.1 percent between 1977 and 1991 (calculated by subtracting 56.9 from 100.0). There are limitations to these time-series tables of which the reader should be aware. One is that it was not possible to “bridge” the change in sample design or sample size between 1991 and earlier years. Thus, 1991 estimates are based on a sample comprising 44 strata, compared with about 250 strata in earlier years, and on a different set of stratification variables. This affected the weighting and sometimes produced anomalous results. For example, in Table D-1, the field American history was not used in stratification between 1977 and 1989 and shows a decline in numbers in 1991, when it was used to stratify the sample. Stratification better controlled the variance associated with that field and probably produced a more accurate estimate in 1991. (This decline is separate from that noted in Appendix A, caused by the change in the definition of “field”).

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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE Another limitation is that rates of change can be misleading if interpreted in isolation. For example, although the number of Hispanic humanities doctorates more than doubled between 1977 and 1991, they still represented only a small fraction of the total in 1991, about 3.3 percent. Therefore, large growth rates do not necessarily indicate large gains in numbers.

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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE TABLE D-1 Humanities Ph.D.s, by Field of Doctorate, 1977 to 1991 (indexed to 1977) Field of Doctorate 1977 1981 1985 1989 1991 All Fields 100.0 116.9 134.0 147.8 154.3 American History 100.0 134.2 156.9 182.4 174.6 “Other History” 100.0 108.5 115.3 116.7 121.8 Art History 100.0 134.5 168.5 196.8 205.0 Music 100.0 139.2 179.6 222.1 246.8 Speech/Theater 100.0 104.0 111.0 116.8 123.0 Philosophy 100.0 112.1 127.7 137.2 144.1 Eng & Amer Lang/Lit 100.0 115.5 126.5 136.7 140.5 Classical Lang/Lit 100.0 105.6 107.6 112.6 113.4 Modern Lang/Lit 100.0 120.8 135.8 149.9 153.2 “Other Humanities” 100.0 125.2 202.8 255.1 288.7

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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE TABLE D-2 Demographic Characteristics of Humanities Ph.D.s, 1977 to 1991 (indexed to 1977) Demographic Characteristics 1977 1981 1985 1989 1991 Total Population 100.0 116.9 134.0 147.8 154.3 Gender Men 100.0 112.0 123.8 132.5 135.4 Women 100.0 133.0 166.7 197.6 215.7 Racial/Ethnic Group White 100.0 121.1 137.8 152.0 159.2 Minority Group 100.0 148.7 189.2 216.4 212.4 Hispanic 100.0 157.7 186.3 224.4 233.1 Black 100.0 144.0 196.4 209.4 186.3 Asian 100.0 139.7 183.2 202.3 197.0 American Indian 100.0 130.9 219.8 290.1 279.0 Age in Survey Year Under 40 100.0 96.9 78.6 61.6 56.9 40-49 100.0 136.2 179.4 197.2 190.3 50-59 100.0 126.5 157.4 197.2 230.4 60-69 100.0 129.5 160.1 206.9 229.9 70-75 100.0 100.9 147.8 194.2 227.0

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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE TABLE D-3 Employment Status of Humanities Ph.D.s, 1977 to 1991 (indexed to 1977) Employment Status 1977 1981 1985 1989 1991 Total Population 100.0 116.9 134.0 147.8 154.3 Employed Full-Time 100.0 118.8 134.9 143.8 147.4 Employed Part-Time 100.0 143.3 193.9 237.2 254.1 Postdoctoral Appointment 100.0 94.1 49.6 95.4 69.3 Not Employed 100.0 88.9 110.6 147.8 173.8 Seeking Employment 100.0 54.6 69.6 49.0 62.2 Not Seeking Employment 100.0 120.9 131.4 137.1 127.8 Retired 100.0 100.3 126.8 207.8 253.6 Other 100.0 55.8 106.4 93.6 81.5 No Report 100.0 221.4 0.0 7.3 55.6 NOTE: The number of humanities doctorates in the categories Postdoctoral Appointment, Not Employed, and No Report is small. Therefore, small changes in absolute numbers may result in large fluctuations in the relative index.

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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE TABLE D-4 Type of Employer of Humanities Ph.D.s, 1977 to 1991 (indexed to 1977) Type of Employer 1977 1981 1985 1989 1991 Employed Population 100.0 119.8 137.2 148.4 152.4 Educational Institution 100.0 114.1 126.1 134.3 134.9 4-Year Coll/Univ/Med School 100.0 113.3 124.1 132.4 131.3 2-Year College 100.0 116.0 139.3 139.1 156.3 Elem/Secondary Schools 100.0 138.3 167.1 188.9 216.3 Business/Industry 100.0 236.6 358.7 438.2 493.4 U.S. Government 100.0 148.6 184.5 224.9 191.6 State/Local Government 100.0 242.3 303.6 213.1 275.5 Nonprofit Organization 100.0 117.5 167.5 196.6 218.6 Other 100.0 122.6 345.2 371.0 358.1 No Report 100.0 104.8 28.6 31.2 150.4

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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE TABLE D-5 Primary Work Activity of Humanities Ph.D.s, 1977 to 1991 (indexed to 1977) Primary Work Activity 1977 1981 1985 1989 1991 Employed Population 100.0 119.8 137.2 148.4 152.4 Teaching 100.0 120.7 126.6 136.3 137.9 Management/Administration 100.0 149.5 198.9 243.4 242.4 Research and Development 100.0 101.6 121.5 148.9 123.0 Writing/Editing 100.0 103.8 159.8 142.7 146.5 Consulting/Prof Services 100.0 162.2 231.6 265.6 286.2 Other Activities 100.0 113.8 141.3 177.0 200.5 No Report 100.0 68.6 117.3 40.9 101.5

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HUMANITIES DOCTORATES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1991 PROFILE This page in the original is blank.