will attempt to predict further changes in the operational makeup of the industry that might occur because of OPA 90 (Section 4115).

The committee will collect data from various industry sources, such as Drewry and the Institute of Shipping Analysis, to establish tanker sales and ship transfers for the years 1990 through 1994. This information will be separated into categories, such as oil company, independent, and government fleets, to determine significant trends in the operational makeup of the tanker industry. Similar data may be required for the oceangoing barge industry in the United States, and, if so, these data will be obtained from the U.S. Coast Guard and verified by the American Waterway Operators. In addition, the committee will need data concerning changes in the tanker and oceangoing barge fleet operating under the Jones Act.

The data for tankers and barges will be analyzed to determine if changes are attributable to OPA 90 (Section 4115). In this area, however, the effect of OPA 90 (Section 4115) may not yet be apparent in actual sales and transfers. As additional information is obtained, the committee expects, but can not ensure, that future trends can be projected.

The committee expects that available sources will be adequate, particularly for transactions involving larger vessels, the ownership of which is usually better documented than for smaller ships. Inevitably, there will be cases where the identity of buyers cannot be determined, especially in recent transactions, and this may affect the reliability of data on transfers between owners groups.

The policy adopted by some oil companies of making special arrangements with independent owners and managers to handle tankers they formerly owned introduces an element of doubt regarding ownership. This relationship cannot be assessed for at least several years. Judgments about the quality of operation are highly subjective, in any case, and none of the available criteria is entirely satisfactory.

Available data are based on different size categories, making an accurate assessment difficult. The overall figures will probably be correct, but the subdivisions may be less so. Ships often carry partial cargoes, which can effectively shift them into a different category, and crude carriers sometimes carry petroleum products (or vice versa). These variables should not invalidate conclusions, however.

Changing shipping patterns is another area of uncertainty. Whether new deep-water, offshore terminals will actually be built in the Gulf of Mexico, and, if so, when, are still unanswered questions. The use of offshore terminals and lightering zones will be governed by tanker economics. If lightering or deep-water ports are less expensive than direct shipments, their use will certainly increase as a percentage of total shipping (number of tank vessels and crude oil tonnage).

Front Matter (R1-R10)

Contents (R11-R14)

Executive Summary (1-2)

1 Introduction (3-13)

2 Ship Safety and Protection of the Marine Environment (14-19)

3 Economic Viability of the Maritime Oil Transportation Industry (20-27)

4 Operational Makeup of the Maritime Oil Transportation Industry (28-32)

5 Data on the Design, Construction, Maintenance, and Operation of Double-Hull Vessels (33-42)

References (43-44)

List of Acronyms (45-46)

Appendices (47-48)

Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members (49-53)

Appendix B: Questionnaires (54-58)

Appendix C: Presentations to the Committee (59-59)

Appendix D: Information Sources (60-60)

Bibliography (61-62)