. "9. Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations." New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities: Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1986.
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New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities, Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries
TABLE 9.7 Sensitivity Analysis: Effect of an Alternative Development Scenario on Potential Health Benefits
Predicted Probability of Successful Development (Central Analysis)
100% Probability of Successful Development
Vaccine
Rank
Value (IME Units)
Rank
Value (IME Units)
S. pneumoniae
1
1,363,943
1
1,704,929
Rotavirus (HPBRV)
2
521,852
4
579,836
Malaria (monovalent)
3
475,205
2
950,410
Rotavirus (LPBRV)
4
450,795
5
563,494
Rotavirus (RMRV)
4
450,795
5
563,494
S. typhi (Ty21a)
6
431,471
7
479,412
Malaria (multivalent)
7
426,640
3
853,280
Shigella
8
222,096
9
317,280
Hepatitis B
9
213,192
13
215,346
H. influenzae b
10
210,943
11
234,381
S. typhi (aa-strain)
11
194,745
8
317,491
Streptococcus group A
12
180,513
12
225,641
E. coli (attenuated live)
13
145,260
14
207,514
E. coli (purified antigens)
14
126,454
10
252,908
V. cholera (attenuated live)
15
94,986
16
126,647
M. leprae
16
88,481
15
176,963
V. cholera (inactivated)
17
65,548
17
100,843
RSV (attenuated live virus)
18
59,559
18
74,449
RSV (glycoprotein)
19
52,412
19
65,515
Parainfluenza viruses
20
43,692
20
54,615
Rabies (Vero cell derived)
21
41,910
21
46,567
Rabies (glycoprotein)
22
37,983
22
44,686
Hepatitis A (attenuated live virus)
23
15,112
25
15,907
Hepatitis A (polypeptide)
24
14,392
26
15,149
N. meningitidis
25
13,754
23
27,509
Yellow fever virus
26
11,127
28
11,713
Dengue virus
27
9,558
27
12,744
Rabies (live vector virus)
28
8,260
24
16,520
Japanese encephalitis virus
29
3,232
29
6,465
CONCLUSIONS
Final decisions on the number of vaccines and the particular vaccines selected for accelerated development must incorporate various nonquantifiable factors, as well as information provided by the rankings that were derived with the proposed system for calculating benefits and expenditures. The additional factors include:
goals of the responsible agency and its schedule for achieving them
ethical questions on the distribution of benefits among socioeconomic or age groups, countries, or regions
most appropriate points in the development process at which the agency can exert influence and the opportunity and need for such influence
