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TABLE 9.8 Sensitivity Analysis: Effect of an Alternative Development Scenario on Potential Expenditures

 

Predicted Probability of Successful Development (Central Analysis)

100% Probability of Successful Development

Vaccine

Rank

Expenditures ($ millions)

Rank

Expenditures ($ millions)

Rabies (live vector virus)

1

15.5

1

30.3

V. cholera (attenuated live)

2

23.8

2

31.3

V. cholera (inactivated)

3

43.6

3

66.8

E. coli (attenuated live)

4

69.2

5

98.0

Shigella

5

91.6

6

130.1

Yellow fever

6

93.0

4

97.9

Rabies (glycoprotein)

7

138.7

7

177.4

Rabies (Vero cell derived)

8

146.8

8

177.5

S. typhi (aa-strain)

9

152.2

9

304.2

Dengue

10

241.8

10

322.0

M. leprae

11

270.6

12

549.0

S. typhi (Ty21a)

12

358.0

11

397.8

H. influenzae b

13

526.6

13

585.0

Streptococcus group A

14

554.2

14

692.1

Japanese encephalitis

15

614.0

19

1,225.4

Rotavirus (LPBRV)

16

655.4

15

819.0

Rotavirus (RMRV)

17

655.9

16

819.5

N. meningitidis

18

708.1

21

1,414.7

E. coli (purified antigens)

19

722.3

22

1,443.3

Rotavirus (HPBRV)

20

852.7

17

947.4

Malaria (multivalent)

21

856.8

24

1,711.9

Malaria (monovalent)

22

967.3

25

1,933.3

RSV (attenuated live)

23

982.8

20

1,228.2

Hepatitis A (attenuated live)

24

1,058.0

18

1,113.7

Streptococcus pneumoniae

25

1,310.3

23

1,637.5

Parainfluenza

26

1,697.1

26

2,121.1

RSV (glycoprotein)

27

1,964.4

27

2,455.2

Hepatitis A (polypeptide)

28

4,029.0

28

4,240.9

Hepatitis B

29

8,859.3

29

8,948.7

  • opportunities to accelerate vaccine development through collaboration with other countries or international organizations

  • the desired balance of the development portfolio (e.g., pediatric versus adult vaccines, global versus regional diseases)

  • arguments for treating certain vaccine development projects as unique because of their potential for facilitating immunization programs in general (e.g., by eliminating constraints on delivery, such as poor stability) or by improving public confidence (e.g., by reducing adverse reactions)

  • the prospect that a particular project may serve as a useful model for a number of other desired vaccines

  • disease related factors, such as epidemiologic and clinical characteristics likely to overwhelm medical services, and the availability of alternative control strategies or safe and effective therapy

  • possible synergistic interaction with other diseases



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