. "9. Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations." New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities: Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1986.
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New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities, Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries
TABLE 9.8 Sensitivity Analysis: Effect of an Alternative Development Scenario on Potential Expenditures
Predicted Probability of Successful Development (Central Analysis)
100% Probability of Successful Development
Vaccine
Rank
Expenditures ($ millions)
Rank
Expenditures ($ millions)
Rabies (live vector virus)
1
15.5
1
30.3
V. cholera (attenuated live)
2
23.8
2
31.3
V. cholera (inactivated)
3
43.6
3
66.8
E. coli (attenuated live)
4
69.2
5
98.0
Shigella
5
91.6
6
130.1
Yellow fever
6
93.0
4
97.9
Rabies (glycoprotein)
7
138.7
7
177.4
Rabies (Vero cell derived)
8
146.8
8
177.5
S. typhi (aa-strain)
9
152.2
9
304.2
Dengue
10
241.8
10
322.0
M. leprae
11
270.6
12
549.0
S. typhi (Ty21a)
12
358.0
11
397.8
H. influenzae b
13
526.6
13
585.0
Streptococcus group A
14
554.2
14
692.1
Japanese encephalitis
15
614.0
19
1,225.4
Rotavirus (LPBRV)
16
655.4
15
819.0
Rotavirus (RMRV)
17
655.9
16
819.5
N. meningitidis
18
708.1
21
1,414.7
E. coli (purified antigens)
19
722.3
22
1,443.3
Rotavirus (HPBRV)
20
852.7
17
947.4
Malaria (multivalent)
21
856.8
24
1,711.9
Malaria (monovalent)
22
967.3
25
1,933.3
RSV (attenuated live)
23
982.8
20
1,228.2
Hepatitis A (attenuated live)
24
1,058.0
18
1,113.7
Streptococcus pneumoniae
25
1,310.3
23
1,637.5
Parainfluenza
26
1,697.1
26
2,121.1
RSV (glycoprotein)
27
1,964.4
27
2,455.2
Hepatitis A (polypeptide)
28
4,029.0
28
4,240.9
Hepatitis B
29
8,859.3
29
8,948.7
opportunities to accelerate vaccine development through collaboration with other countries or international organizations
the desired balance of the development portfolio (e.g., pediatric versus adult vaccines, global versus regional diseases)
arguments for treating certain vaccine development projects as unique because of their potential for facilitating immunization programs in general (e.g., by eliminating constraints on delivery, such as poor stability) or by improving public confidence (e.g., by reducing adverse reactions)
the prospect that a particular project may serve as a useful model for a number of other desired vaccines
disease related factors, such as epidemiologic and clinical characteristics likely to overwhelm medical services, and the availability of alternative control strategies or safe and effective therapy
possible synergistic interaction with other diseases
