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TABLE 9.9 Effect of Varying Probability of Success on the Health Benefits of S.pneumoniae Vaccine: Central Analysis

Probability of Success

Annualized Present Value of Potential Health Benefits (IME units)

1.0

1,704,929

0.9

1,534,236

0.8a

1,363,943

0.7

1,193,450

0.6

1,022,957

0.5

852,464

0.4

681,972

0.3

511,479

0.2

340,986

0.1

170,493

0.0

0

aProbability of success used in central analysis.

  • the immediate U.S. interest in diseases that may be imported into the United States, that threaten travelers or personnel stationed overseas, or that are existing problems in the United States

  • the affordability of the potential health benefit, if not already used formally in the decision process

These factors are discussed in more detail in Chapter 8 and elsewhere in the report.

The analyses presented in this chapter indicate that of the 29 projects considered, vaccines for S. pneumoniae, Plasmodium spp. (malaria; both monovalent and multivalent circumsporozoite protein based versions), rotavirus (all three candidates), S. typhi (Ty21a), and shigella consistently rank in the top 10 positions in priority lists based on potential health benefits, under a wide range of assumptions and resource availability.

Vaccines for hepatitis B and H. influenzae type b rank in the top 10 in the central analysis but are dislodged under certain assumptions. Vaccines for E. coli (either candidate) or the alternative candidate for S. typhi (an aromatic amino acid requiring stain) move into the top



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