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their susceptibility to other diseases should be weighed in the final choice of priorities.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE DISEASE BURDEN ESTIMATES

The estimated number of diarrheal episodes caused by specific pathogens (attempted above) is based largely on expert judgments, and committee advisers had different opinions on certain estimates. For example, some individuals disagreed with the majority opinion on the numbers of diarrheal episodes per individual in Asia and Latin America, under 5 years, believing that these numbers should be reversed. Such estimate modifications and their effect on the ultimate ranking can be evaluated. Preliminary calculations of the example cited above suggest an increase in disease burdens of less than 20 percent. The effects on vaccine benefits would be proportional, and the effects on the rankings easily calculated.

REFERENCES

Feachem, R.G., and M.A.Koblinsky. 1983. Interventions for the control of diarrhoeal diseases among children: Measles immunization. Bull. WHO 61:641–652.


Programme for Control of Diarrhoeal Diseases. 1984. Interim Program Report. WHO/CDD/84.10. Geneva: World Health Organization.


United Nations Children’s Fund. 1983. Statistics. Pp. 174–197 in The State of the World’s Children 1984. New York: Oxford University Press.



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