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TABLE D-8.2 Estimated Annual Number of Epidemic N. meningitidis Cases and Deaths

Age Group (years)

Incidence per 100,000 Population

Population

Number of Cases

Average Number of Cases

Case Fatality Rate (percent)

Average Number of Deaths

Under 5

736

50,337,040

370,481

37,048

10

3,705

5–14

600

73,588,680

441,532

44,153

10

4,415

15–59

200

138,034,520

276,069

27,607

10

2,761

60 and over

50

14,189,760

7,095

709

10

71

TABLE D-8.3 Estimated Annual Number of Endemic N. meningitidis Cases and Deaths

Age Group (years)

Incidence per 100,000 Population

Population

Number of Cases

Case Fatality Rate (percent)

Number of Deaths

Under 5

5.4

498,559,000

26,922

20

5,384

5–14

6.1

909,366,000

55,471

10

5,547

15–59

2.4

1,954,728,000

46,913

25

11,728

60 and over

0.8

232,347,000

1,859

80

1,487

Endemic Meningococcal Meningitis

Incidence rates for endemic meningococcal meningitis can be derived from the data reported by Cadoz et al. (1981) for Dakar, Senegal (a city that lies outside the major meningitis belt). In the absence of alternative methods for estimating the disease burden, these rates are assumed to apply to the populations of all developing countries. Age-specific mortality rates were estimated from data presented by Cadoz et al. (1981). The number of endemic meningococcal cases and deaths derived from the application of these assumptions is shown in Table D-8.3.

It is assumed that all acute cases of N. meningitidis fall into morbidity category C. The total average number of endemic and epidemic N. meningitidis cases and deaths is shown in Table D-8.4.

Information is scant on the sequelae of meningococcal meningitis in developing countries. On the basis of observations of a recent epidemic in The Gambia by Griffiss (personal communication, 1985), it was assumed that 15 percent of survivors suffer mild (category D) neurological sequelae (e.g., hearing loss), and that 1 percent suffer moderate (category E) chronic neurological problems. Adopting these assumptions yields the total disease burden for N. meningitidis shown in Table D-8.5.



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