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New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities: Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries (1986)
Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice (BPH)

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. "5. Predictions of Vaccine Development." New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities: Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1986.

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New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities, Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries

TABLE 5.1 Predictions Table—Primary

Pathogen (Target Population)

Type of Vaccine

Cost of Development ($ millions)

Probability of Successful Development

Dengue virus (Infants and children in endemic areas; travelers to endemic areas)

Attenuated live vector virus containing gene for broadly cross-reacting protective antigen

25

0.75

Escherichia coli (enterotoxigenic) (Infants<6 months)

A combination of purified colonization factor antigens and possibly other antigens

25

0.50

Genetically engineered attenuated strains

25–50

0.70

Hemophilus influenzae type b (Infants)

Conjugated polysaccharide

15

0.90

Hepatitis A virus (Susceptibles of all ages; routine for preschool children)

Attenuated live virus

15

0.95

Polypeptide recombinant vaccine produced in yeast

25

0.95

Hepatitis B virus (Areas with high perinatal infection: all infants at birth (if possible). Other areas: all infants, simultaneous with other vaccinations, at earliest possible age)

Polypeptide produced by recombinant DNA technology

5

0.99

Japanese encephalitis virus (Children in epidemic and endemic areas; foreign visitors to epidemic regions)

Inactivated virus produced in cell culture

50

0.50

Mycobacterium leprae (Immunoprophylactic: all children in endemic areas. Immunotherapeutic: all recently infected individuals)

Armadillo-derived M. leprae

25

0.50

Neisseria meningitidis (Infants, 3 to 6 months)

Conjugated capsular polysaccharides. Groups A,C,Y, and W135

30

0.50 (dependent upon success in developing conjugation procedures with other vaccines)

Parainfluenza viruses (Infants)

Trivalent, subunit vaccine (which must contain fusion proteins)

25

0.80

Plasmodium spp. (All infants at risk, military personnel, travelers)

Plasmodium falciparum, synthetic or recombinant sporozoite antigen preparation

25

0.50

Multivalent synthetic or recombinant sporozoite antigen preparation (P. falciparum, P. vivax, P. ovale, P. malariae)

35

0.50

Page
64
Front Matter (R1-R16)
1. Summary (1-18)
2. Priority Setting for Health-Related Investments: A Review of Methods (19-29)
3. Overview of the Analytic Approach (30-43)
4. Comparison of Disease Burdens (44-62)
5. Predictions of Vaccine Development (63-75)
6. Assessing the Likely Utilization of New Vaccines (76-81)
7. Calculation and Comparison of the Health Benefits and Differential Costs Associated with Candidate Vaccines (82-105)
8. Additional Issues in the Selection of Priorities for Accelerated Vaccine Development (106-120)
9. Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations (121-142)
Appendix A: Selection of Vaccine Candidates for Accelerated Development (143-148)
Appendix B: The Burden of Disease Resulting from Acute Respiratory Illness (149-158)
Appendix C: The Burden of Disease Resulting from Diarrhea (159-169)
Appendix D-1: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Dengue Virus (170-177)
Appendix D-2: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Escherichia coli (178-185)
Appendix D-3: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Hemophilus influenzae Type b (186-196)
Appendix D-4: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Hepatitis A Virus (197-207)
Appendix D-5: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Hepatitis B Virus (208-222)
Appendix D-6: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Japanese Encephalitis Virus (223-240)
Appendix D-7: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Mycobacterium leprae (241-250)
Appendix D-8: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Neisseria meningitidis (251-266)
Appendix D-9: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Parainfluenza Viruses (267-274)
Appendix D-10: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Plasmodium spp. (275-286)
Appendix D-11: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Rabies Virus (287-298)
Appendix D-12: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (299-307)
Appendix D-13: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Rotavirus (308-318)
Appendix D-14: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Salmonella typhi (319-328)
Appendix D-15: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Shigella spp. (329-337)
Appendix D-16: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Streptococcus Group A (338-356)
Appendix D-17: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Streptococcus pneumoniae (357-375)
Appendix D-18: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Vibrio cholerae (376-389)
Appendix D-19: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Yellow Fever (390-402)
Appendix E: Questionnaire for Assessing Morbidity-Mortality Trade-Offs (403-411)
Appendix F: Technical Notes (412-412)
Appendix G: Biographical Notes on Committee Members (413-417)
Appendix H: Additional Sources of Advice to the Committee (418-419)
Appendix I: Contents of Supplement to Volume II (420-420)
Appendix J: Preface to Volume I (421-422)
Appendix K: Contents to Volume I (423-423)
Index (424-432)