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CRIMINAL ARK ERS AND "CAREER CRIMINALS" VOLUME Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, Jeffrey A. Roth, ant] Christy A. Visher, editors Pane] on Research on Criminal Careers Committee on Research on Law Enforcement en c! the Administration of Justice Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1986

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 CONSTITUTION AVENUE NVV WASHINGTON, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject ofthis report was approved by the Governing Board ofthe National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members ofthe committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. This project was sponsored by the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice, under Contract No. 83-IJ-CV-0010. The contents do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the grantor agency. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Criminal careers and "career criminals." Bibliography: v. 1, p. Includes index. 1. Crime analysis- United States. 2. Crime and criminals United States. 3. Criminal behavior, Prediction of. I. Blumstein, Alfred. II. National Research Council (U.S.~. Panel on Research on Criminal Careers. HV7936.C88C75 1986 364.3'0973 ISBN 0-309-03684-4 (v. 1) ISBN 0-309-03683-6 (v. 2) Printed in the United States of America 86-18282

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Pane! on Research on Criminal Careers ALFRED BLUMSTEIN (Chair), School of Urban ancI Public Affairs, Camegie-Mellon University ALLEN H. ANDREWS, JR., Superintendent of Police, City of Peoria, Illinois DELBERT S. ELLIOTT, Department of Sociology and Behavioral Research Institute, University of Colorado DAVID P. FARRINGTON, Institute of Criminology, Cambridge University, Englanc! JOHN ~LAN, School of Law, Stanford University ROLF LOEBER, Westem Psychiatric Institute and Clinic, University of Pittsburgh CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin NORVAL MORRIS, School of Law, University of Chicago ALBERT I. REISS, JR., Department of Sociology, Yale University LEE ROBINS, Washington University Medical School, St. Louis, Missouri HAROLD ROSE, Department of Urban Affairs, University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee DANIEL S. SMITH, Department of History, University of Illinois at Chicago ANDREW L. SONNER, State's Attorney for Montgomery County, Maryland REGGIE B. WALTON, Associate Judge, Superior Court of the District of Columbia JAMES Q. WILSON, Department of Govemment, Harvard University, and Graduate School of Management, University of CaTifomia at Los Angeles MARVIN E. WOLFGANG, Sellin Center for Studies in Criminology and Criminal Law, University of Pennsylvania JEFFREY A. ROTH, Study Director CHRISTY A. VISHER, Research Associate GAYLENE I. DUMOUCHEL, Administrative Secretary JACQUELINE COHEN, Consultant, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie Mellon University . . .

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Committee on Research on Law Enforcement and the Administration of Justice NORVAL MORRIS (Chair), School of Law, University of Chicago RICHARD LEMPERT (Vice Chair), School of Law, University of Michigan ANTHONY V. BOUZA, Chief of Police, Minneapolis, Minnesota JONATHAN D. CASPER, Department of Political Science, Northwestern University, and American Bar Foundation, Chicago, Illinois SHARI S. DIAMOND, Deparknent of Psychology, University of Illinois at Chicago, and SicIley and Austin, Chicago, Illinois NAMES LOWELL GIBBS, JR., DuBois Institute, Harvard University JOSEPH KADANE, Department of Statistics, Camegie-Mellon University CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin ALBERT J. REISS, JR., Department of Sociology, Yale University NAMES F. SHORT, JR., Social Research Center, Washington State University PATRICIA MCGOWAN WALD, Jucige, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit STANTON WHEELER, Amateur Athletic Foundation of Los Angeles, on leave from School of Law, Yale University JAMES Q. WILSON, Department of Government, Harvard University, and Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles ALFRED BLUMSTEIN (`ex officio), Chair, Panel on Research on Criminal Careers SAMUEL KRISLOV (`ex officio), Cochair, Pane] on Statistical Assessment as Evidence in the Courts ANN WITTE (ex officio), Chair, Pane} on Taxpayer Compliance Research V

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Contents CONTENTS, VOLUME II PREFACE ...... SUMMARY ......... INTRODUCTION: STUDYING CRIMINAL CAREERS The Criminal Careers Concept, 12 Crime Control Policies, 15 Dimensions of Criminal Careers, 17 Using the Criminal Career Paradigm, 22 Scope of the Panel's Report, 28 2 PARTICIPATION IN CRIMINAL CAREERS Study Designs and Participation Estimates, 33 Participation Among Males, 35 Participation Estimates by Sex, Race, and Age, 40 Other Factors Associated with Participation, 42 Summary, 53 3 DIMENSIONS OF ACTIVE CRIMINAL CAREERS Individual Frequency Rates, 55 Seriousness, 76 Termination and :Length of Criminal Careers, 85 Conclusion, 94 4 METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN CRIMINAL CAREER RESEARCH Observational Approaches: Self-Reports ant! Official Records, 96 v . . ~ e - V11 ... 1X 1 - 12 31 .. 55 ... 96

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v! Sampling Issues, 101 Use of Cohort and Cross-Sectional Data, 104 Problems of Confounded Effects, 105 Explicit Models of Offending, 106 5 CRIME CONTROL STRATEGIES USING CRIMINAL CAREER KIT Ur\~U CONTENTS Ale ~ ~ e ~ ~ e ~ ~ ~ e ~ e ~e ~e e ~109 Strategies to Prevent Participation, 110 Career Modification Strategies, 114 Incapacitation Strategies, 122 Technical Note, 143 USE OF CRIMINAL CAREER INFORMATION IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE DECISION MAKING 155 Introduction, 155 Criminal Career Perspectives in Criminal Justice Decision Making, 157 Issues in Prediction-Based Classification, 163 Explicit Classification Scales, 178 Adult, Juvenile, and Non-Justice System Records and Their Integration, 190 Conclusions, 195 7 AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH 198 Background, 198 A :Longitudinal Study of Criminal Careers, 199 Specific Research Questions, 202 Supportive Organizational Arrangements, 208 APPENDICES A PARTICIPATION IN CRIMINAL CAREERS 211 Christy A. Visher and Jeffrey A. Roth B RESEARCH ON CRIMINAL CAREERS: INDIVIDUAL FREQUENCY RATES AND OFFENSE SERIOUSNESS............. Jacqueline Cohen C WORKSHOP ON RESEARCH ON CRIMINAL CAREERS: PROGRAM AND PARTICIPANTS ............................... D BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES, PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF REFERENCES INDEX 419 423 429 451

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Contents, Volume IT ISSUES IN THE MEASUREMENT OF CRIMINAL CAREERS Joseph G. Weis THE IMPACT OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE ON CRIMINAL CAREERS Eric D. Wish and Bruce D. Johnson THE RELATIONSHIP OF PROBLEM DRINKING TO INDIVIDUAL OFFENDING SEQUENCES James]. Collins CO OFFENDING INFEUENCES ON CRIMINAE CAREERS Albert J. Reiss, Jr. THE RAND INMATE SURVEY: A REANAEYSIS Christy A. Visher ACCURACY OF PREDICTION MODEES Stephen D. Gottiredson and Don M. Gottiredson SOME METHODOEOGICAE ISSUES IN MAKING PREDICTIONS John B. Copas and Roger Tarling PURBEIND JUSTICE: NORMATIVE ISSUES IN THE USE OF PREDICTION IN THE CRIMINAE JUSTICE SYSTEM Mark H. Moore DYNAMIC MODEES OF CRIMINAE CAREERS Christopher Flinn RANDOM PARAMETER STOCHASTIC PROCESS MODEES OF CRIMINAE CAREERS John P. Lehoczky vii

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Preface In 1983, when the Panel on Research on Criminal Careers was convened, the U.S. prison population had experienced a rapid] growth more than doubling from 196,000 in 1972 to 437,000 in 1983-and the crime rate had just passed its 1980 peak of 13 million reported inclex crimes, or almost 6,000 crimes per 100,000 population. There was strong policy interest in finding alternatives to rapidly escalating imprisonment costs and what was perceived as relatively ineffective crime control. One approach that was widely considered was to direct attention at "career criminals," high-rate or long-duration offenders who contribute most to total crime rates. Research at the Rand Corporation had highlighted the extreme variability in individual rates of criminal activity: in surveys of prisoners, the worst 10 percent of offenders reported committing more than SO robberies or 200 burglaries per year, but half the prisoners reported committing fewer than 5 burglaries or robberies per year. This extreme variation enhancer] the appeal of being able to distinguish high-rate from low-rate offenders. To this end, a number of prediction scales have been proposed to distinguish the high-rate offenders from the more numerous ordinary offenders. Any prediction of an individual's future offending must draw on research on criminal careers, the characterization of the sequence of individual criminal activity: initiation of criminal activity, variation over the career in the frequency of offending and in the kinds of crimes committed, and, finally, termination of criminal activity. Any attempt to'-identify the career criminals in a population requires examination of the criminal careers of all offenders to find the characteristics that distinguish the most serious offenders: those having the longest remaining careers, the highest frequencies of offending, and commit- ting the most serious kinds of offenses. ax

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XPREFACE The pane] was convened at the request of the National Institute of Justice to evaluate the feasibility of predicting the future course of criminal careers, to assess the effects of prediction instruments in reducing crime through incapac- itation (usually by incarceration), and to review the contribution of research on criminal careers to the development of fundamental knowledge about crime and criminals. Ultimately, such knowledge is necessary for unclerstanding the dimensions of the crime problem, for isolating factors that contribute to criminality, and for developing effective crime control strategies. In particular, many commonly held perceptions of correlates of crime that derive from aggregate or macroanalysis do not hold at the individual or micro level. As knowledge about criminal careers develops, the insights into individual of- fending that emerge will certainly stimulate refinements to criminological theory. They will also lead to improved criminal justice decisions, both by drawing attention to some variables that are not adequately appreciated and by directing attention away from other variables that are incorrectly perceived as important. Criminal career information is also necessary for estimating the effects of changes in incarceration policy on crime and on prison populations. In reviewing the scientific evidence on criminal careers, the pane] members were in general agreement about the findings and conclusions, but there were, however, divergent views on the ethics of how such information should be used in dealing with offenders. At one end of a spectrum is the view that no actions taken by the criminal justice system should take any account of individual differences in anticipated future offending; from this perspective, any use of predictive information would be objectionable. At the other end of the spec- trum is a desire to see even weak results put to use as quickly as possible; advocates of this position point to the shortcomings of current decisions ant] emphasize that any contribution conic! improve the quality of decisions and thereby recluce crime. In the middle, most pane! members view prediction of future offending as a legitimate consideration in criminal justice decisions, particularly since it is currently being done implicitly at some level in practice. This view also maintains, however, that the role of precliction must be rigor- ously constrained and, in particular, that it not result in punishments or restraints that are unjust in terms of the offense committed. Although the pane! viewed the making of pronouncements on ethical issues as outside its role, we (lid devote considerable attention to ethical considerations to be sure that our conclusions were sensitive to them. The scientific concern that is central to the panel's role is that any use of prediction be based on correct information intelligently used. We found a number of instances in which prediction rules were naively generated, with poor methods, or violated fundamental tenets of validity testing. Thus, it became important to call attention to more appropriate methods and to identify useful information both information that contributes to identifying "career criminals" as well as information that is frequently used but should not be used. Many aspects of the work of the pane! can be viewed as a follow-up to earlier

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PREFACE Xt work by the Pane} on Research on Deterrent and Incapacitative Effects, whose report was published in 1978. That report noted that any assessment of incanacitative effects or improvement ofthem was severely handicapped by the paucity of substantive research findings on individual offending patterns that could contribute to estimates of the magnitude of incapacitative effects. That pane} thus recommended that priority be assigned to research on criminal careers and that "the most immediate empirical investigation should be di- rected at estimating the individual crime rate and the length of a criminal i, career. Pursuit of these issues has been a major feature of the Crime Control Theory Research Program of the National Institute of Justice, directed by Richard Linster and Joe] Garner. It is always disappointing to find that knowledge does not accumulate as fast as one would like and that the measurements of those criminal career parameters are still short of definitive. In the context of the earlier review, however, it is impressive how much additional research has accumulated that provides internally consistent measurement ofthe key climen- sions of criminal careers and of their relationships to other relevant variables. Criminal justice is a field of social science research that is heavily beset by ideological considerations. In such a setting, any individual study is properly met with some skepticism and concern about the author's particular ideological bent and the degree to which that perspective may have had an excessive influence in shaping the results. A pane} such as this one, which brings together individuals with a full array of the requisite disciplinary perspectives and technical skills, and with a diversity of ideological stances, thus represents an important vehicle for assessing the current evidence in the field and for identifying promising research directions. Given its charge to assess the evidence on criminal careers and to point to future research directions, the pane} pursued two intensive efforts. First, the panel's staffreviewed the relevant literature, and these reviews are included as annendices in this volume: Appendix A by Christy Visher and Jeffrey Roth reviews the literature on participation in criminal careers; Appendix B by Jacqueline Cohen reviews the literature on the inclividual freouenev of of- fending and on the mix of offense types by active offenders. ~ ~ e1 1 1 1 ~ al ~ Second, the panel commissioned a number ot papers that were presented and discussed at a workshop in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, on July 2~25, 1984 (see Appendix C for the program and list of participants). Several of the papers review major bodies of literature: on prediction and its uses (by Stephen and Don Go~fredson); on the influence on criminal careers of alcohol (by James Collins) and of drugs (by Eric Wish and Bruce Johnson); and on group patterns in offending (by Albert I. Reiss). Because of the considerable interest generated by the second Rand inmate survey, the pane! also asked Christy Visher to undertake a reanalysis of the data from that survey. Two commissioned papers, one by Joseph Weis and another by John Copas and Roger Tarling, address methodological and measurement issues; a paper by Mark Moore addresses

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All PREFACE relevant normative issues; and two papers introduce new models of criminal careers that derive from recent advances in economics (by Christopher Flinn) and in stochastic processes (by John :Lehoczky). These papers constitute Volume Il. They are the responsibility of their authors ant] do not necessarily represent the views of the panel, but they were valuable resources for the pane! in its discussions ant] represent important contributions to the literature on criminal careers. The pane! members represent a diverse group (see biographical sketches in Appendix D). The pane! benefited particularly from the sensitivity, sophistica- tion, ant! challenges offered by the practitioners, who conveyed insights about the current state of their professions-needs, strengths, shortcomings-and the operational constraints that limit the application of research findings. The academic members of the pane] are all distinguished researchers. Some are working in areas relater] to criminal careers, while others brought specialized expertise in particular disciplines, methoclolop;ies, jurisprudence, or policy ~ . ~ . 1 . ~ 1 1 - 1 ~ 11 ~ . . analysls. L'lscusslons at panel meetings were always lively, lull 01 lntereStlng ideas; disagreements were consistently isolates! and dealt with directly. It was indeed a pleasure working with so able and committed a group. The dedicated efforts of the staff have been central to the work of the panel. Jeffrey Roth was the study director from the inception of the pane] and contributed considerably in terms of managing the affairs of the panel, in drafting significant segments of the report, and in his careful review of all materials. Christy Visher began her association with the panel as a National Research Council Fellow, undertook the review of the second Rand inmate survey. and brought significant criminological background and experience to ~ . - v . ~ lo1 . . r.1 1. ~ . ~ r~ a the work ot the panel in its review ot tne literature and in clrattln~ and eclltln~ major sections of the report. Jacqueline Cohen of Camegie-Mellon University built on her experience as a consultant to the prior Pane} on Research on Deterrent and Incapacitative Effects, her extensive research on criminal careers and incapacitation, and her extensive knowledge of the related literature; her diligent contributions to all aspects of the work of the panel, especially in reviewing the literature and in drafting major portions of the report, are very much appreciated. The task of editing; the large volume of material assembled ~ ~ , ~ ~ 1 .1 1 1 1 1 1 1 TO `_ 1 a1 ~ 1 by the panel has been considerable. ~ugenla Frogman' the associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Educa- tion, not only sharpened our language but also challenged our assertions when they were insufficiently developed or documented, and in doing so made an excellent and important contribution to the report of the panel. lean Shirhall was also very effective in editing the appendices to this volume and the papers in Volume IT. The pane! has benefited considerably from the administrative and secretarial work of Gaylene Dumouche} at the National Research Council and Elizabeth Kiselev at Carnegie-Mellon University. An important feature of the panel s work has been the support and encour

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@ ~ ~ Ha agement oftbe sponsor the Nstiona1 Institute of Justice. Hichard Linster kept in dose ~ucb gin Me panel Shutout in work, and James SO Be director oftbe Nations Institute of Justice provided the kind of encouragement and support tub teas cbaracterized his stewardship ofdbe instituted research program. ALFRED BLD~S1~) Calf Panel on Research on Criminal Cheers

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C~RIMINAL ARK ERS AND "CAREER CRIMINALS" VOLUME I

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