NEGOTIATED ACTIVITIES TO PURSUE

On the final day of the workshop, the delegations from Bulgaria, Romania, and the United States divided into three multicountry groups to work out a plan of action to pursue over the near term and longer. The working groups focused on actions in three areas: 1) energy modeling and other planning tools, 2) energy efficiency, and 3) energy laws and codes, which create the social infrastructure within which energy plans will be adopted and implemented.

ENERGY MODELING

The goal of energy modeling is to support local decision making, the adoption of rational national energy policies, and understanding of the global impacts of long-term emissions. Models used for planning purposes vary in level of detail and scope. The energy modeling working group discussed three levels of models: local engineering models, country-level models, and global and regional models. For Bulgaria and Romania, improving local engineering models and country-level models is a high priority, while the improvement of regional and global models is a lower priority.

Local Engineering Models

The goal of these models is to define the most appropriate supply-side and demand-side planning and management options that achieve energy conservation goals at the lowest total cost for local (town, city, industrial) areas or industrial processes.



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Energy Planning, Management, and Efficiency in a Local Context: Summary of an American-Bulgarian-Romanian Workshop NEGOTIATED ACTIVITIES TO PURSUE On the final day of the workshop, the delegations from Bulgaria, Romania, and the United States divided into three multicountry groups to work out a plan of action to pursue over the near term and longer. The working groups focused on actions in three areas: 1) energy modeling and other planning tools, 2) energy efficiency, and 3) energy laws and codes, which create the social infrastructure within which energy plans will be adopted and implemented. ENERGY MODELING The goal of energy modeling is to support local decision making, the adoption of rational national energy policies, and understanding of the global impacts of long-term emissions. Models used for planning purposes vary in level of detail and scope. The energy modeling working group discussed three levels of models: local engineering models, country-level models, and global and regional models. For Bulgaria and Romania, improving local engineering models and country-level models is a high priority, while the improvement of regional and global models is a lower priority. Local Engineering Models The goal of these models is to define the most appropriate supply-side and demand-side planning and management options that achieve energy conservation goals at the lowest total cost for local (town, city, industrial) areas or industrial processes.

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Energy Planning, Management, and Efficiency in a Local Context: Summary of an American-Bulgarian-Romanian Workshop There is a desire to move beyond models to project characterization and implementation. There are several items to consider in preparing local engineering models: System Considerations characterization of the system (population, economics, energy demand, energy supply, etc.) energy balance analysis characterization of different scenarios for energy supply (distribution of primary energy resources, different installed local heat and power generators, combined steam/gas power and cogeneration plants, etc.) and demand (maximum conservation, minimum energy imports, maximum energy growth, etc.) Economic Considerations definition of different energy-related economic development programs investigation of project financing alternatives least-cost analysis and choice of options proposals for regulations and local energy policy, including market-based incentives to move the system in the desired direction development of a database for in-country energy technologies and prices and comparison with U.S. goods. Other Considerations ecological impacts of different scenarios definition of most prominent areas (lighting, envelope, heating, etc.) for energy efficiency results and evaluation of energy savings in all sectors. identification of specific projects for rehabilitating, upgrading, and modernizing (of boilers, heating systems, etc.) in the local area.

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Energy Planning, Management, and Efficiency in a Local Context: Summary of an American-Bulgarian-Romanian Workshop Modalities for Achieving Expertise in Local Area Modeling The next step is to identify the appropriate tools, make selections on what is most appropriate for use in Romania and Bulgaria, adapt/modify those tools if necessary, and then provide training to energy engineers in those countries. Models with residential/commercial, industrial, and transportation applications are particularly needed. Specific opportunities for cooperation between American, Bulgarian, and Romanian specialists include the following: The establishment of contacts with DOE, the Federal Energy Management Program, and DOE's national laboratories in order to adapt and implement the FEDS Model Level-1 Building Version in Bulgaria; The establishment of contacts with the Research Development and Demonstration Department of Brooklyn Union Gas (BUG), DOE, and the national laboratories for help in implementation of IRP and DSM methodology and gas utilization technology in Bulgaria and Romania. The experience of BUG could provide powerful lessons to minimize the future amount of capital expenditures needed on the supply side for both domestic and imported gas. Country-Level (Macroeconomic) and Energy Restructuring Models These models are needed to estimate the impact and consequences of the implementation of different economic policies and energy options on the restructuring of the economy and energy use. Of particular interest to Bulgaria and Romania is the development and application of policies that can be used to evaluate options for diversification of external sources of energy supply, which is a primary concern of these two countries. In the long term, consideration of greenhouse gas emissions will be important. In the short run, however, restructuring the energy sector and the economy as a whole needs to be a first priority.

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Energy Planning, Management, and Efficiency in a Local Context: Summary of an American-Bulgarian-Romanian Workshop Modalities for Achieving Expertise in Country-Level Modeling As was the case for local modeling, the next step is to identify the appropriate tools, make selections on what is most appropriate for use in Romania and Bulgaria, adapt/modify those tools if necessary, and then provide training to energy engineers in those countries. The Brooklyn Union Gas approach for integrated resource planning for gas is potentially a widely-applicable approach in the two countries, with particular focus on demand-side management. Specific opportunities for cooperation among American, Bulgarian, and Romanian specialists include the following: The establishment of contacts with the Energy Information Agency and representatives from the NRC Committee on the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to work on implementation of NEMS in Bulgaria. Development in Romania of a new System of Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) project applied to the entire national transmission grid (this would include a feasibility study, financing, training, etc.) The sharing of information on new developments in and the availability of high-efficiency gas appliances. This information could be supplied by BUG, the Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Alliance to Save Energy. Global and Regional Models Although global and regional models are considered a longer-term focus by the participants in this workshop and will not help meet the immediate energy planning needs of Romania and Bulgaria, they were discussed. Of particular interest to these countries will be the Second Generation Model for modeling future greenhouse emissions. This model will help illuminate the impacts of preventing pollution and what each country's energy supply portfolio should be to minimize regional environmental damages.

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Energy Planning, Management, and Efficiency in a Local Context: Summary of an American-Bulgarian-Romanian Workshop The output from this model will provide inputs to country-level models. Modalities for Achieving Expertise in Global and Regional Modeling A program, which could be led by Pacific Northwest Laboratory, could be formed to develop plans of action, collect appropriate data, and investigate what would be necessary to adapt existing global and regional models for Romanian and Bulgarian application. These teams should organize targeted workshops in the two countries to 1) identify specific needs, 2) inform each country of available models and tools, and 3) come to closure on the appropriate matches between needs and tools. After a year, the workshop groups should be reformulated considering the level of progress made on adaptation and application of these models, and activities could be refocused where necessary. Contacts should be established with the U.S. Department of Energy and others on modeling future greenhouse emissions (the Second Generation Model) in order to take part in the modeling studies, to include Bulgarian and Romanian information, and to exchange ideas about national economies and energy modeling and planning. ENERGY EFFICIENCY STRATEGY An energy efficiency strategy fits into an overall goal of improving the economy and the environment through adoption of a rational national energy policy that recognizes the importance of using all resources at the disposal of the planners. This group believes this is an important step in the transition from a command economy to a freer market.

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Energy Planning, Management, and Efficiency in a Local Context: Summary of an American-Bulgarian-Romanian Workshop Goals The goal is to acquire cost-effective energy conservation resources in the total energy supply, distribution, and end-use sectors by examining where conservation opportunities exist, at what cost, and with what benefits. Experience in other countries has shown that much conservation can be achieved at a lower cost than the construction of new power plants or the extraction or importation of additional energy. Acquisition of cost-effective conservation resources has been shown to lessen a country's dependency on outside resources, improve its economic competitiveness, and help the environment. Implementation The work team believes that the following efforts are important to achieve the overall goals of this energy-efficiency strategy: Education: Create a group of energy-efficiency experts, through courses, exchanges, on-the-job training, etc. Sensitize the decision makers to the availability of conservation through workshops and other means. Sensitize people to the importance of efficiency for the well-being of the country and themselves. Train the construction industry and architects to build and design efficient structures and improve existing buildings. Train industrial process engineers to recognize energy conservation opportunities in the industrial sector. Technology: Study the total energy systems of Romania and Bulgaria to discover the targets of energy-efficiency improvement and to define what technologies may be needed.

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Energy Planning, Management, and Efficiency in a Local Context: Summary of an American-Bulgarian-Romanian Workshop Examine available and appropriate technologies within and outside of the country. Work to transfer technologies from other countries when appropriate. In lieu of importing conservation technologies, consider the possibility of building manufacturing plants to manufacture the needed technologies to save energy. There may be a market in the rest of Eastern Europe for these technologies. One approach (suggested by the U.S. partners in the NRC meetings) is a joint venture with an existing company that makes technology needed to improve domestic energy efficiency. As an example of this type of opportunity, the Phillips Lighting Company of the Netherlands has built a jointly owned factory with Polish concerns to manufacture efficient light bulbs in Poland. Modeling: Work with energy planners to ensure that the energy planning models at all different levels of the economy capture all of the costs and benefits of efficiency improvements and affect the impact of the shift from a command economy to a free market economy. Laws and Regulations: Include energy-efficiency requirements in the laws and regulations of the country. Modalities In education: Conduct post-graduate training in very short courses (2 to 3 weeks) in Bucharest and Sofia dedicated to “energy conservation” and “integrated resource planning. ” These courses could be organized by Pacific Northwest Laboratory and the Institute of Interdisciplinary Engineering Studies at Purdue University. Develop new curricula for engineers related to energy efficiency concepts. Professors from the Institute of Interdisciplinary Engineering Studies at Purdue University and Polytechnic University of Brooklyn could provide curricula for relevant courses at their universities as a point of departure.

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Energy Planning, Management, and Efficiency in a Local Context: Summary of an American-Bulgarian-Romanian Workshop Train Romanian and Bulgarian young engineers in U.S. utilities and/or governmental laboratories. Each of the New York area utilities involved in the workshop would be ideal hosts for training and internship programs. In technology: Members of the U.S. team and members of the Romanian and Bulgarian teams should meet in Romania and Bulgaria to identify the appropriate targets in industry and/or district heating to improve efficiency; to define the appropriate technologies, hardware, and software; to implement programs; and to evaluate results. U.S. governmental and non-governmental organizations will collaborate on weatherization pilot-projects in Bulgaria and Romania. The New York City Weatherization Coalition, relevant New York State agencies, and the U.S. Department of Energy could collaborate to develop pilot projects. ENERGY LAWS AND CODES The development of new energy laws and codes in Bulgaria and Romania is meant to provide a secure framework for the functioning of the energy sectors and to provide market signals and regulations to promote efficiency. Status of Energy Laws and Codes Both Romania and Bulgaria are in the process of reviewing codes and regulations referring to the energy end-use in buildings and industries. Also under review are laws and regulations on energy production and distribution. In both countries, energy pricing does not fully reflect either the cost of production or market value. Discussions are also continuing in each country on how to raise prices and on sequencing of price changes and efficiency regulations.

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Energy Planning, Management, and Efficiency in a Local Context: Summary of an American-Bulgarian-Romanian Workshop Groups in the United States that Could Provide Assistance American Bar Association: Possible consultation to help transfer U.S. experience. U.S. Department of Energy: Can provide information on federal practice and current regulation. Non-Government Organizations: Organizations including Alliance to Save Energy, American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, and the Natural Resources Defense Council have been active in the United States in the development of laws and regulations. States: Some specific states, including New York, California, and Wisconsin, have been leaders on statelevel regulation. Public utility commissions in all states regulate private utilities. This is not currently relevant in Romania and Bulgaria, which have public utilities, but may become important in the future. Utility Companies: These companies implement many codes and standards in the United States. Professional and Technical Societies: In the United States many voluntary standards are developed by these groups. These groups also have drafted many standards that have been adopted as mandatory codes, for example in lighting, building construction, heating, ventilating, and air conditioning equipment. Modalities Identify U.S. groups (above) to provide reviews and comments on proposed Romanian and Bulgarian laws and regulations. Assistance is particularly needed on regulation of independent power producers. Analyze new ways to impose the codes and regulations referring to energy end-use in buildings. As a first step, appropriate groups in the United States could review the plans for specific new buildings. Analyze new ways to impose the codes and regulations referring to energy end-use in industry. As a first step, appropriate groups in the United States could review selected new industrial facilities or industrial processes in Romania and Bulgaria.

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Energy Planning, Management, and Efficiency in a Local Context: Summary of an American-Bulgarian-Romanian Workshop Implement a model energy program in a specific town or village. This program could include development of codes and programs such as weatherization. U.S. groups may help with advice and the model could serve as an example to be replicated in other locations. Begin technical exchanges between American and Bulgarian/Romanian engineering technical societies to develop some voluntary performance standards for certain equipment such as lighting, appliances, or gas furnaces. Begin technical exchanges on environmental regulations, especially for power production. Exchanges on fuel standards would also be useful. Develop ways to inform the population about regulations on energy use and conservation. Train engineers and technicians working in energy-related positions on energy codes and regulations.