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RIMINAL
ARK ERS AN D
AREER
RIMINALS"
VOLUME
Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen,
Jeffrey A. Roth, and Christy A. Visher, editors
P~O=~iY CF
NAT - NAN
Ott_ l-3q8O
Panel on Research on Criminal Careers
Committee on Research on Law Enforcement and the
Aclministration of Justice
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and
Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1986
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7936
. ~
8 ~ NOTICE: The project that is the subject ofthis report was approved by the Governing Board ofthe National
Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible
for the report were chosen for their special competences and win regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a
Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National
Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the
broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of
advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by
the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a
private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating
agency of bow the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct
of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is
administered jointly by bow Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering
and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the
National Academy of Sciences.
This project was sponsored by the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice, under Contract
No. 83-IJ-CX-0010. The contents do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the grantor agency.
\7. ~
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 CONSTITUTION AVENUE NW WASHINGTON, DC 20418
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Criminal careers and "career criminals."
Bibliography: v. 1, p.
Includes index.
1. Crime analysis United States. 2. Crime and
criminals- United States. 3. Criminal behavior,
Prediction of. I. Blumstein, AlEed. II. National
Research Council (U.S.). Panel on Research on
Criminal Careers.
HV7936.C88C75 1986 364.3'0973 86-18282
ISBN 0-309-03684-4 (v. 1)
ISBN 0-309-03683-6 (v. 2)
Printed in the United States of America
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
The National Academy Press was created by the National Academy of
Sciences to publish the reports issued by the Academy and by the
National Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the
National Research Council, all operating under the charter granted to
the National Academy of Sciences by the Congress of the United States.
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Pane! on Research on Criminal Careers
ALFRED BLUMSTEIN (Chair), School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie-Mellon
University
ALLEN H. ANDREWS, JR., Superintendent of Police, City of Peoria, Illinois
DELBERT S. ELLIOTT, Department of Sociology and Behavioral Research Institute,
University of Colorado
DAVID P. FARRINGTON, Institute of Criminology, Cambridge University, England
JOHN KAPLAN, School of Law, Stanford University
ROLF LOEBER, Western Psychiatric Institute and Clinic, University of Pittsburgh
CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin
NORVAL MORRIS, School of Law, University of Chicago
ALBERT l. REISS, JR., Department of Sociology, Yale University
LEE ROBINS, Washington University Meclical School, St. Louis, Missouri
HAROLD ROSE, Department of Urban Affairs, University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee
DANIEL S. SMITH, Department of History, University of Illinois at Chicago
ANDREW L. SONNER, State's Attomey for Montgomery County, Maryland
REGGIE B. WALTON, Associate fudge, Superior Court of the District of Columbia
NAMES Q. WILSON, Deponent of Government, Harvard University, and Graduate
School of Management, University of California at Los Angeles
MARVIN E. WOLFGANG, Sellin Center for Studies in Criminology and Criminal
Law, University of Pennsylvania
JEFFREY A. ROTH, Study Director
CEIRISTY A. VISHER, Research Associate
GAYLENE I. DUMOUCHEL, Administrative Secretary
JACQUELINE COHEN, Consultant, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie
Mellon University
. . .
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Committee on Research on Law Enforcement
and the Administration of Justice
NORVAL MORRIS (Chair), School of Law, University of Chicago
RICHARD LEMPERT (Vice Chair), School of Law, University of Michigan
ANTHONY V. BOUZA, Chief of Police, Minneapolis, Minnesota
JONATHAN D. CASPER, Department of Political Science, Northwestern University,
and American Bar Foundation, Chicago, Illinois
SHARI S. DIAMOND, Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Chicago,
and Sibley and Austin, Chicago, Illinois
JAMES LOWELL GIBBS, JR., DuBois Institute, Harvard University
JOSEPH KADANE, Department of Statistics, Camegie-Mellon University
CHARLES F. MANSKI, Depa~trnent of Economics, University of Wisconsin
ALBERT I. REISS, JR., Department of Sociology, Yale University
NAMES F. SHORT, JR., Social Research Center, Washington State University
PATRICIA MCGOWAN WALD, fudge, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of
Columbia Circuit
STANTON WHEELER, Amateur Athletic Foundation of Los Angeles, on leave from
School of Law, Yale University
JAMES Q. WILSON, Department of Government, Harvard University, and Graduate
School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles
ALFRED BLUMSTEIN (ex officio), Chair, Panel on Research on Criminal Careers
SAMUEL KRISLOV (ex officio), Cochair, Panel on Statistical Assessment as Evidence
in the Courts
ANN WITTE (ex officio), Chair, Panel on Taxpayer Compliance Research
V
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Contents
CONTENTS, VOLUME
PREFACE . . .
ISSUES IN THE MEASUREMENT OF CRIMINAL CAREERS
Joseph G. Weis
...... vim
· .
V11
2 THE IMPACT OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE ON CRIMINAL CAREERS 52
Eric D. Wish and Bruce D. Johnson
3 THE RELATIONSHIP OF PROBLEM DRINKING TO INDIVIDUAL
OFFENDING SEQUENCES
James J. Collins
4 CO OFFENDER INFLUENCES ON CRIMINAL CAREERS
Albert1. Reiss,Jr.
5 THE RAND INMATE SURVEY: A REANALYSIS
Christy A. Visher
6 ACCURACY OF PREDICTION MODEES .................
Stephen D. Gottiredson and Don M. Gottirec~son
· · .
7 SOME METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN MAKING PREDICTIONS
John B. Copas and Roger Tarling
89
.. 121
..... 161
.... 212
.. 291
PURBLIND JUSTICE: NORMATIVE ISSUES IN THE
USE OF PREDICTION IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM 314
Mark H. Moore
9 DYNAMIC MODEES OF CRIMINAL CAREERS
Christopher Flinn
10 RANDOM PARAMETER STOCHASTIC PROCESS MODEES OF
CRIMINAL CAREERS.
John P. Lehoczky
· ~
..... 356
v
.... 380
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Contents, Volume ~
SUMMARY
~INTRODUCTION: STUDYING CRIMINAL CAREERS
2 PARTICIPATION IN CRIMINAL CAREERS
3 DIMENSIONS OF ACTIVE CRIMINAL CAREERS
4 METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN CRIMINAL CAREER RESEARCH
5 CRIME CONTROL STRATEGIES USING CRIMINAL CAREER KNOWLEDGE
6 USE OF CRIMINAL CAREER INFORMATION IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE
DECISION MANNG
7 AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
APPENDICES
A PARTICIPATION IN CRIMINAL CAREERS
Christy A. Visher and Jeffrey A. Floth
B RESEARCH ON CRIMINAL CAREERS: :INDIVIDUAE
FREQUENCY RATES AND OFFENSE SERIOUSNESS
Jacqueline Cohen
C WORKSHOP ON RESEARCH ON CRIMINAL CAREERS: PROGRAM
AND PARTIC1:PANTS
D BIOGRAPEIICAE SKETCHES, PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF
REFERENCES
INDEX
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Preface
:[n 1983, when the Panel on Research on Criminal Careers was convened, the
U.S. prison population had experienced a rapid growth-more than doubling
from 196,000 in 1972 to 437,000 in 198~and the crime rate had just passed its
1980 peak of 13 million reported index crimes, or almost 6,000 crimes per
100,000 population. There was strong policy interest in finding alternatives to
rapidly escalating imprisonment costs and what was perceived as relatively
ineffective crime control.
One approach that was widely considered was to direct attention at "career
criminals," high-rate or long-duration offenders who contribute most to total
crime rates. Research at the Rand Corporation had highlighted the extreme
variability in individual rates of riminal activity: in surveys of prisoners, the
worst 10 percent of offenders reporter! committing more than 50 robberies or
200 burglaries per year, but half the prisoners reported committing fewer than
5 burglaries or robberies per year. This extreme variation enhanced the appeal
of being able to distinguish high-rate from low-rate offenders. To this end, a
number of prediction scales have been proposed to distinguish the high-rate
offenders from the more numerous ordinary offenders.
Any prediction of an individual's future offending must draw on research on
criminal careers, the characterization of the sequence of individual criminal
activity: initiation of criminal activity, variation over the career in the frequency
of offending and in the kinds of crimes committed, and, finally, termination of
criminal activity. Any attempt to identify the career criminals in a population
requires examination of the criminal careers of all offenders to find the
characteristics that distinguish the most serious offenders: those having the
longest remaining careers, the highest frequencies of offending, and commit-
ting the most serious kincis of offenses.
· .
vet
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vIt!
PREFACE
The panel was convened to evaluate the feasibility of predicting the future
course of criminal careers, to assess the effects of prediction instruments in
reducing crime through incapacitation (usually by incarceration), and to review
the contribution of research on criminal careers to the development of funda-
mental knowledge about crime and criminals. Ultimately, such knowledge is
necessary for understanding the dimensions of the crime problem, for isolating
factors that contribute to criminality, and for developing effective crime control
strategies. In particular, many commonly held perceptions of correlates of crime
that derive from aggregate or macroanalysis do not hold at the indiviclual or
micro level. As knowledge about criminal careers develops, the insights into
individual offending that emerge will certainly stimulate refinements to crim-
inological theory. They will also leas] to improved criminal justice decisions,
both by drawing attention to some variables that are not adequately appreciated
ant! by directing attention away from other variables that are incorrectly
perceived as important. Criminal career information is also necessary for
estimating the effects of changes in incarceration policy on crime ant! on prison
populations.
In reviewing the scientific evidence on criminal careers, the panel members
were in general agreement about the findings ant] conclusions, but there were,
however, divergent views on the ethics of how such information should be used
in dealing with offenders. At one end of a spectrum is the view that no actions
taken by the criminal justice system should take any account of individual
differences in anticipated future offending; from this perspective, any use of
predictive information would be objectionable. At the other end of the spec-
trum is a desire to see even weak results put to use as quickly as possible;
advocates of this position point to the shortcomings of current decisions and
emphasize that any contribution could improve the quality of decisions and
thereby reduce crime. In the middle, most panel members view prediction of
future offending as a legitimate consideration in criminal justice decisions,
particularly since it is currently being done implicitly at some level in practice.
This view also maintains, however, that the role of prediction must be rigor-
ously constrained and, in particular, that it not result in punishments or
restraints that are unjust in terms of the offense committed. Although the panel
viewed the making of pronouncements on ethical issues as outside its role, we
click devote considerable attention to ethical considerations to be sure that our
conclusions were sensitive to them. The scientific concern that is central to the
panel's role is that any use of prediction be based on correct information
intelligently used. We found a number of instances in which prediction rules
were naively generated, with poor methods, or violated fundamental tenets of
validity testing. Thus, it became important to call attention to more appropriate
methods and to identify useful information both information that contributes
to identifying career criminals as well as information that is frequently used but
should not be used.
Many aspects of the work of the panel can be viewed as a follow-up to earlier
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PREFACE
MIX
work by the Panel on Research on Deterrent and Incapacitative Effects, whose
report was published in 1978. That report noted that any assessment of
incapacitative effects or improvement ofthem was severely handicapped by the
paucity of substantive research findings on individual offending patterns that
could contribute to estimates of the magnitude of incapacitative effects. That
pane] thus recommended that priority be assigned to research on criminal
careers and that "the most immediate empirical investigation should be di-
rected at estimating the individual crime rate and the length of a criminal
,,
career.
Pursuit of these issues has been a major feature of the Crime Control Theory
Research Program of the National Institute of Justice, directed by Richard
Linster and foe} Garner. It is always disappointing to find that knowledge does
not accumulate as fast as one would like and that the measurements of those
criminal career parameters are still short of definitive. In the context of the
earlier review, however, it is impressive how much additional research has
accumulated that provides internally consistent measurement of the key climen-
sions of criminal careers and of their relationships to other relevant variables.
Criminal justice is a field of social science research that is heavily beset by
ideological considerations. In such a setting, any inclividual study is properly
met with some skepticism and concern about the author's particular icleological
bent and the degree to which that perspective may have had an excessive
influence in shaping the results. A pane! such as this one, which brings together
indivicluals with a full array of the requisite disciplinary perspectives and
technical skills, and with a diversity of ideological stances, thus represents an
important vehicle for assessing the current evidence in the field and for
identifying promising research directions.
Given its charge to assess the evidence on criminal careers and to point to
fixture research directions, the pane! pursued two intensive efforts. First, the
panel's staffreviewed the relevant literature, and these reviews are included as
appendices in Volume I: Appendix A by Christy Visher and Jeffrey Roth
reviews the literature on participation in criminal careers; Appendix B by
Jacqueline Cohen reviews the literature on the indiviclual frequency of of-
fending and on the mix of offense types by active offenders.
Second, the panel commissioned a number of papers that were presented and
discussed at a workshop in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, on July 2~2S, 1984
(see Appendix C in Volume ~ for the program and list of participants). Several
of the papers review major bodies of literature: on prediction and its uses (by
Stephen and Don GottEredson); on the influence on criminal careers of alcohol
(by lames Collins) and of drugs (by Eric Wish and Bruce Johnson); and on
group patterns in offending (by Albert I. Reiss). Because of the considerable
interest generated by the Rand Second Inmate Survey, the panel also asked
Christy Visher to undertake a reanalysis of the ciata from that survey. Two
commissioned papers, one by Joseph Weis and another by John Copas and
Roger Tarling, address methodological and measurement issues; a paper by
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x
PREFACE
Mark Moore addresses relevant normative issues; and two papers introduce
new models of criminal careers that derive from recent advances in economics
(by Christopher Flinn) and in stochastic processes (by John Lehoczky). These
papers constitute this volume. They are the responsibility of their authors and
do not necessarily represent the views of the panel, but they were valuable
resources for the pane] in its discussions and represent important contriLlltion.c
to the literature on criminal careers.
The pane! members represent a diverse group (see biographical sketches in
Appendix D in Volume I). The panel benefited particularly from the sensitivity,
sophistication ant! challenges offers hv the. nrnotitionPrc Who r~n`7P`~P~
O
. ~ . ~ . . ~ ~ ,
Insights about the current state ot their professions needs, strengths, short-
comings and the operational constraints that limit the application of research
findings. The academic members of the panel are all distinguishes] researchers.
Some are working in areas related to criminal careers, while others brought
specialized expertise in particular disciplines, methodologies, jurisprudence, or
policy analysis. Discussions at pane! meetings were always lively, full of
interesting icleas; disagreements were consistently isolated and dealt with
directly. It was indeed a pleasure working with so able en c! committed a group.
The dedicated efforts of the staff have been central to the work of the panel.
Jeffrey Roth was the study director from the inception of the pane] and
contributed consiclerably in terms of managing the affairs of the panel, in
drafting significant segments of the report, and in his careful review of all
materials. Christy Visher began her association with the panel as a National
Research Council Fellow, undertook the review of the Rand Second Inmate
Survey, and brought significant criminological background] and experience to
the work of the pane! in its review of the literature and in drafting and editing
major sections of the report. Jacqueline Cohen of Carnegie-Mellon University
built on her experience as a consultant to the prior Panel on Research on
Deterrent and Incapacitative Effects, her extensive research on criminal careers
and incapacitation, and her extensive knowledge of the related literature; her
diligent contributions to all aspects of the work of the panel, especially in
reviewing the literature and in drafting major portions of the report, are very
much appreciated. The task of editing the large volume of material assembled
by the pane! has been considerable. Eugenia Grohman, the associate director
for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Educa-
tion, not only sharpened our language but also challenged our assertions when
they were insufficiently developed or documentecI, and so she made an
excellent and important contribution to the report of the panel. lean Shirhall
was also very effective in editing the appendices to Volume ~ and the papers in
this volume.
The pane! has benefited considerably from the administrative and secretarial
work of GayTene Dumouchel at the National Research Council and Elizabeth
Kiselev at Carnegie-Mellon University.
An important feature of the panel's work has been the support and encour
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PREFACE
agement of the sponsor, the National Institute of Justice. Richard Linster kept
in close touch with the panel throughout its work, and lames Stewart, the
director ofthe National Institute of Justice, provided the kind of encouragement
and support that has characterized his stewardship of the institute's research
program.
ALFRED BLUMSTEIN, Chair
Panel on Research on Criminal Careers
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