|
Items in cart [0] |
Questions? Call 888-624-8373 |
| Copyright © 2009. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Terms of Use and Privacy Statement |
Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter.
Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page 435
The Medical Implications of Nuclear War, Institute of
Medicine. @) 1986 by the National Academy of Sciences.
National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
Scandinavian Youth View the Future:
A Preliminary Report of a Large
Questionnaire Survey
MAGNE RAUNDALEN, PH.D., and OLE JOHAN FINNOY
University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Several recent studies have asked children to rank the most pressing
problems of the world and to list their feelings about the future. Data from
these surveys indicate the percentages of children who are pessimistic or
optimistic about the future and how many think about nuclear war daily,
twice a week, twice a month, and so on. But multiple-choice question-
naires alone cannot elicit the spontaneous thoughts or feelings of children
or describe their perceptions of how future problems may color their daily
lives and affect their psychological functioning.
In 1984 and 1985, we also asked students 3,000 Norwegian and 1,000
Swedish boys and girls between the ages of 12 and 19 to rank the world's
problems in order of importance to them. Among a given list of 10
problems, the study group ranked the threat of nuclear war first. (Un-
employment was ranked second, with older youths giving more weight
to this problem than younger group members.)
In addition to the ranking, we requested that the youths write essays
on what they thought the future might be like. From their extensive writings
we tried to classify or systematize their attitudes. We are sorry to report
that 44 percent of those surveyed were pessimistic about the world-an
This survey took place in cooperation with the Norwegian Save the Children Fund.
For a more comprehensive description of research methods used in this study, see
Raundalen, M., and 0. J. Finnoy, in press, Children's and teenagers' views of the future,
International Journal of Mental Health.
435
OCR for page 436
436
IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCLEAR WAR
attitude we defined as a profound hopelessness toward the possibilities of
peace and future life on earth, including their own survival.
Other attitudes were more complex to categorize. For example, we
rated about 13 percent of the group as having "forced" optimism. These
children and adolescents seemed to shift gears, punctuating a long list of
the world's problems with a sudden declaration of a hopeful outlook.
Another 12 percent had an attitude we classified as powerlessness. This
group passively listed future problems, emphasizing that solutions were
beyond their control. But they did not indicate whether they were opti-
mistic or pessimistic about the fate of the world.
Ten percent of the respondents had "active denial," refusing to answer
and declaring that they could not bear to think about future world conflicts
or problems. This group repressed all feelings and reactions to the bomb
and other threats. Even within this group there were differences: Some
easily shut out thoughts about the future, and others said they were com-
pelled to ignore such thoughts in order to avoid mental distress.
The last and fifth group we called "active hope." Fourteen percent of
the youths surveyed were in this category. They not only expressed an
optimistic attitude about the world, but could tell us why (unlike those
with "forced optimisms. Their main sources of hope, they said, were
international organizations working in poor (third world) countries. These
youths viewed efforts of the United Nations, UNICEF, Red Cross, and
Save the Children Fund as peace work with which they felt a bond.
Generally, children who were active or whose parents were active with
international organizations such as these expressed more optimistic atti-
tudes about the future. This group felt strongly that the threat of nuclear
war and other global problems could be solved.
Less quantitatively, we also tried to grasp main themes within the
writings of the youths. We believe that these themes can guide future
research.
One of the central themes that emerged from the essays was concern
about planning for the future. Here, we selected all writings about personal
aspirations, including education, work, and family. Only about 20 percent
had high expectations for the next 12 to 15 years.
Many of the youngsters felt it was meaningless to plan for these pursuits
at all, especially long-term education and vocational training. We believe
that combating this personal pessimism will be a primary challenge to the
entire education system in the future. Allowing and encouraging pupils
to participate in work for a better world and constantly emphasizing what
is being done around the globe to prevent ecological disaster and poverty
and to halt the arms race may be one solution.
Another theme was anger, which was expressed by many of the youths
toward the bomb and other threats that they believed were taking the future
OCR for page 437
SCANDINAVIAN YOUTH VIEW THE FUTURE
437
out of their hands. Still others expressed depression, and some said they
were living under such a heavy burden that it was an effort to decide
whether to live another year.
Some young people said they were tempted to use drugs to relieve their
pain about the future. Others commented that it was pointless to avoid
alcohol and narcotics, since the world might soon be destroyed anyway.
Relating to these feelings, a number of the youths wanted immediate
rewards for their accomplishments. It appeared that they were seeking
instant gratification in a world where there may be no future.
Many of the youngsters commented on the upsetting news they receive
from the media. They see in the news a tidal wave of rising problems
the global hurricane that could very well destroy, with no potential for
saving or rebuilding. It seems that some young people have developed a
"news phobia. " Unfortunately, this closes off a channel of communication
that might lessen their fears to the extent that the media do report on
positive actions for peace and justice.
The pessimism encountered in our survey raises questions about how
the media, schools, and parents present the world to children. The survey
also suggests that working with international organizations to promote
peace and justice is one strategy for allaying fears and increasing optimism
among children. In the youngsters' own words, becoming involved with
such groups is an important source of relief and comfort for those who
are depressed about the future of the world.
STUDY METHODS
In our survey we used the following methods. Three sheets of paper
containing questions were distributed during a school lesson. The front
page listed 10 problems about the future, which the students were asked
to rank according to importance. (The problems had been selected after
surveying a previous group of approximately 200 children and adoles-
cents.)
After ranking the 10 problems, the students were asked to comment on
the problem that they cited as most threatening. They were also asked to
write what they thought could be done about the world's problems and
to indicate whether their view of the future was optimistic. Lastly, we
asked the youngsters what they thought about the nuclear bomb. It was
emphasized that no answer was right or wrong and that it was their own
thoughts in which we were interested.
These open questions were especially attractive to the students. They
wrote lengthy descriptions about their concerns and perspectives on the
worId's future. The problems that they described were both of a global
character such as the nuclear bomb, food shortages, and pollution and
OCR for page 438
438
IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCLEAR WAR
a more local character, such as drugs, unemployment, and bringing up
children.
Regarding our methodology, we acknowledge the following: The con-
tents of the entire survey form were directed at problems about the future;
that is, they were focused so that we expected that many students would
voice considerations specifically on the subject of nuclear war. We did
this because we believed that the threat of nuclear war was already of
great concern to them. There may have been other answers to the survey
had we asked different questions about the future or used a different format;
but this does not mean that the statements are not significant. Rather, we
must interpret their pessimistic responses from the perspective that they
were asked to focus on a few of the world's problems in a relatively short
amount of time.
The children in the survey were selected to yield a broad distribution
in age and geographic location. We also wanted children that lived in the
north, close to the Soviet border, to participate in the survey. To some
extent we had to abandon the principle of random selection because some
school authorities reacted so strongly to the theme of the survey that under
no circumstances would they have allowed it to be conducted in their
schools. So far, we have not focused on an analysis of attitudes in different
parts of the country.
The data were analyzed as follows: The structured part of the survey,
in which the children were asked to rank We future problems from 1 to
10, was registered, punched, and analyzed with a program that will be
descnbed thoroughly in a later article. Systematization of We wnKen
material took place in several phases. After reading Trough all the an-
swers, we worked out score categories that we found were representative
of the children's main responses. We started win the category "optimism"
at one end of Me spectrum and the category "pessimism" at We over.
TABLE 1 Ranking of Problems About the Future
Average
Rank Problem Ranking
1 Nuclear Weapons 2.31
2 Unemployment 3.84
3 Drugs 4.08
4 Pollution 4.87
5 Scarcity of food 4.88
6 Russia 5.48
7 World population growth 6.44
8 United States 6.71
9 Genetic and medical experimentation 7.55
10 Bringing up children 8.18
OCR for page 439
SCANDINAVIAN YOUTH VIEW THE FUTURE
TABLE 2 Future Problems that Students Ranked Number One
439
Number of Percent of
Rank Problem Students Students
1 Nuclear weapons 935 52.7
2 Unemployment 357 20.1
3 Drugs 166 9.4
4 Pollution 103 5.8
5 Scarcity of food 89 5.0
6 Russia 55 3.1
7 World population growth 33 1.9
8 Bringing up children 16 0.9
9 United States 14 0.8
10 Genetic and medical
experimentation 5 0.3
Gradually it became clear that the optimists could be divided into two
categories: those who said that they chose to be optimists, in spite of the
dark future outlook they expressed, and those who had a supported hope,
who believed that what is being done is of some use and something that
they could actually take part in. Furthermore, it became clear that pes-
simism had several nuances of powerlessness and escape. As a result of
the analysis, we broke down the responses into groups of active hope,
forced op~rnism, powerlessness, repression (active denial), and pessimism.
RESULTS*
Page one of the survey, which contained the ranking of the 10 problems
about the future, was used for several analyses. First, we calculated the
average ranking of all 10 problems (Table 1~.
The nuclear weapons issue was clearly given the lowest numerical value,
indicating that it generally was ranked high as a problem. Next were
unemployment and drugs, which are local concerns-that is, problems
that may concern youths more directly in their private lives. The fourth
and fifth concerns, however, were the global threats of pollution and
scarcity of food.
The ranking may also be analyzed according to how often a single
problem area was ranked first, as shown in Table 2.
The results presented in Table 2 show that, according to this method
of analysis as well, the threat of nuclear weapons is the future problem
*The findings of the analysis of the first 1,800 responses are reported here. The results
from the full 4,000 show no significant changes in these trends; they are described in
Raundalen, M., and O. J. Finnoy, in press, Children's and teenagers' views of the future,
International Journal of Mental Health.
OCR for page 440
440
IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCLEAR WAR
TABLE 3 Differences in Ranking the Number One Future Problem, by
Age
-
Nuclear
Age (years) Weapons (%)
Unemployment (%) Drugs (%)
12 64.6 5.7 16.6
13 66.9 9.9 11.9
14 56.5 21.4 10.0
15 49.1 26.6 5.6
16 52.5 14.8 10.9
17 41.9 25.2 8.1
18 38.0 32.7 4.7
19 38.9 27.8 7.4
that the children most often considered to be number one, but the analysis
reveals the distance between the ranking of the problems, for example,
between nuclear weapons and unemployment.
There were only modest differences in the ranking between sexes. Girls
ranked nuclear weapons, unemployment, and bringing up children as the
number one future problems slightly more often than did boys.
Table 3 shows differences by age in the ranking of the number one
future problems of nuclear weapons, unemployment, and drugs. Evident
age-related factors are shown by Me fact that the ranking of nuclear
weapons as the number one problem decreases with age. The importance
of unemployment increases in ranking with age, while the importance of
drugs decreases.
Table 4 shows that pessimism is the dominant attitude group, whereas
the other groups are about equally distnbuted. In an analysis of all the
data, the negative group consisting of attitudes of pessimism, powerless-
ness, and repression constitutes nearly 70 percent of the study population,
whereas the two groups with optimistic attitudes represent 26 percent.
We found that the attitudes of boys and girls were distributed differently
among the categories of optimism and pessimism. Girls were slightly less
TABLE 4 Attitudes About the Future
. .. . .
Attitude
Number of Percent of
Students Students
.
Forced optimism 23913.3 | 25 8
Active hope 22412.5 J
Pessimism 79444.2
Powerlessness 22012.2 69.3
Repression (active denial) 23212.9
Impossible to code 894.9
OCR for page 441
SCANDINAVIAN YOUTH VIEW THE FUTURE
441
pessimistic but expressed a higher degree of powerlessness. The per-
centage of boys with active hope was considerably lower than the per-
centage of girls, but forced optimism was twice as common among boys
than among girls.
We also found that attitudes toward the future changed across the age
span of the study group. Pessimism tended to decrease with age. More
significantly, forced optimism tended to be replaced by active hope in the
older children.
DISCUSSION AND SUMMARY
Currently, several surveys can be found in which children and adoles-
cents have been asked to rank and write about problems of the future.
They vary in specificity that is, some only use the word "future,"
whereas others also use formulations about problems and threats. Fur-
thermore, there are more specific surveys in which children are asked
their views about local problems and especially the use of nuclear weapons
or the risk of comprehensive nuclear war.
Within this framework, the questions we asked the youngsters to write
about were directed toward their feelings. We wanted to know how much
or how often they were bothered by thoughts of the world's future prob-
lems, whether they shared their feelings with someone, and what their
perspective was on the future according to their age. In response, ap-
proximately one-half of the students answered that the world is going to
be destroyed by one or several of the future threats during their lifetime.
When the youngsters were asked how much they were bothered by these
threats, great variations in response, especially among age groups, were
found, but the answers did not point in a particular direction. However,
children and adolescents agreed that they did not talk to adults about future
threats, especially about nuclear war. We also got the impression that they
do not frequently share these thoughts with their companions.
Data from other surveys are primarily quantitative and do not address
issues of feelings. Our method, a more problem-oriented approach, was
aimed at providing more insight into how children express themselves and
what they say when concerned about the future. It appears that our ques-
tionnaire-essay format was attractive to the respondents, especially those
over 14 years of age. They enjoyed the ability to freely express their
thoughts, and a majority provided answers that were detailed and personal.
An analysis of the responses to such a questionnaire, which was only
partially structured according to how the problems were presented to the
children, is of course difficult to systematize. Our analysis is not finished,
and currently we are classifying the data into certain theme areas. We are
OCR for page 442
442
IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCl:FAR WAR
doing this by re-reading the material and noting the themes that occur
throughout and then discussing the structure and essence of these themes.
The method is very exciting, but it is necessary to compare many state-
ments and to avoid interjecting our own biases into what we read. It is
therefore very important that two people do the analysis and have a con-
tinuous discussion during the work. So far we have chosen to examine
the following theme areas:
1. Psychological reaction. Many youths described their feelings in
detail as they faced the future threats. So far we can say that they usually
described their situation as stressful: It is heavy, they live under the burden
of the threats, and so on.
2. Long-term planning. We gathered together all those who wrote about
looking far ahead into the future and planning their lives. A marked trait
was the large number of youths (more than 20 percent) who found it
meaningless to invest in long-term educational and vocational training
because the future of the world was uncertain.
3. Politicians and democracy. About 1 in 10 wrote that they can no
longer trust democratic processes, politicians, and government officials
or international alliances in any way. They are looking for strong leaders,
and if there are none, then it is better to have the world end. Some young
people combined this outlook with contempt for weakness and suggestions
that insane persons should be institutionalized so that they cannot come
near "the button" and destroy the world. We were concerned to find such
intensity of antidemocratic attitudes.
4. Aggression. This group comprises those who express strong aggres-
sion in the description of their future perspective. The aggression is di-
rected toward the destruction of nuclear weapons and against the generation
who they say is "playing with our future."
5. Belief in the good forces. This group comprises those who express
belief in the good powers and in the possibility of action and peace for
the world. Many have similar attitudes to those who were placed in the
active hope group in the analysis discussed above.
In summary, 7 out of 10 children and adolescents between 12 and 19
years of age fall into the negative response category. This includes those
who either express directly that they are pessimists or note that they do
not want or cannot bear to write about future world problems. The pes-
simism is attached to nuclear war and unemployment and to the fact that
soil, air, and water may be damaged by other threats in the near future.
The actively hopeful view of the future that we found in a sizable
minority of young people typically is connected with the fact that they or
OCR for page 443
SCANDINAVIAN YOUTH VIEW THE FUTURE
443
their parents have taken part in actions against the proliferation of nuclear
weapons or to improve the conditions of the world. The young people
often equate peace work with aid to developing countries. They associated
the spread of nuclear weapons with the risk of revenge and terrorism being
directed against us from the third world. These children also tend to be
knowledgeable about the United Nations and the disarmament talks.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
active hope
