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The Medical Implications of Nuclear War, Institute of
Medicine. ~ 1986 by the National Academy of Sciences.
National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
Adult Beliefs' Feelings' and Actions
Regarding Nuclear War: Evidence
from Surveys and Experiments
SUSAN T. FISKE, PH.D.
University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts
I would like to begin with a story. I have a friend who has cancer, and
she has reason to believe that she has a one-third chance of dying from
it. She understands this diagnosis, but her possible death remains some-
what hypothetical to her. She imagines it mostly in the abstract, and she
talks about missing the city and her occasional trips into the country. She
does not talk so much about missing the people in her life. She believes
she cannot do anything to change her odds. She does not worry about it
very often; it mostly is not salient to her. If asked about it, she reports
fear and worry, and certainly she prefers effective treatment to nothing.
But she does not change her life with regard to her cancer. She does not
seek support. She does not join organizations. She does not discuss her
situation publicly. She goes on about her normal life. Some people say
she is marvelous, remarkable, life-affirming, brave, and adaptable. Other
people say she is suppressing her fear, denying reality, and desensitized
to her own death.
My friend is the average American citizen. Her cancer is the possibility
of a nuclear war. This portrait of her reactions resembles the portrait I
will draw of the ordinary person's reactions to the possibility of nuclear
war. I have described it this way initially because it is becoming difficult
to have a fresh perspective on this issue. I will come back to this point
at the end, but it may be useful to keep the story in mind while reading
this paper.
This paper addresses three issues. First, it describes the average citizen's
response to the possibility of nuclear war. Second, it describes possible
444
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ADULT BELIEFS, FEELINGS, AND ACTIONS REGARDING NUCLEAR WAR 445
sources of that response. And, third, it contrasts the average citizen with
the antinuclear activist and the survivalist.
In describing adult response to nuclear war, I use a three-part distinction
that is standard in social psychology. As the title indicates, this paper
separately examines people 's~beliefs, feelings, and actions. Beliefs include
conceptions of the likelihood of nuclear war, images of mushroom clouds
and utter destruction, and expectations about one's own survival. People's
feelings, for these purposes, consist of their reported emotional reactions
and their nuclear policy preferences. People's activity regarding the pos-
sibility of nuclear war includes political activity and survival activity.
With respect to most issues, people's beliefs, feelings, and actions are
fairly consistent; such consistency enables psychological equilibrium. In
the context of nuclear war, however, there are major discrepancies between
the ordinary person's beliefs, on the one hand, and the ordinary person's
feelings and actions, on the other hand. Although this observation is not
entirely new, there has been little effort to review the hard data concerning
the modal person's beliefs, feelings, and actions.) The sources of data
include more than 50 studies from social and behavioral science: mainly
surveys of adults, with preference given to national findings, where avail-
able, over local findings; some questionnaire studies of college students;
and a few experimental studies with college students. The data span a
period from 1945 to the present, and they lend some new insights into
the discrepancies among people's beliefs, feelings, and actions.
MODAL BELIEFS ABOUT NUCLEAR WAR
People think of nuclear war as somewhat ur'1ikely, imagining mainly complete
Criteria destruction, in the abstract, with themselves defirl~ly not surviving.
Psychologists have long attempted to document people's beliefs about
nuclear war, primarily using survey interviews and questionnaires, but
also drawing on the in-depth relationship of the clinical setting (for his-
torical overviews, see Klineberg [1984] and Morowski and Goldstein
[19859. Immediately following the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki,
the first surveys began to examine people's attitudes toward the bomb and
its use. Attitude surveys ebbed and flowed over the next four decades,
peaking after the Russians' first atomic test, the creation of the hydrogen
bomb, the Bay of Pigs and Cuban Missile Crisis, the Nuclear Test Ban
Treaty, the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) initiatives, and dur-
ing the present unprecedented level of worldwide concern over nuclear
weapons (Kramer et al., 1983~. The number of surveys reflects variations
in levels of public interest, as indicated by citation frequencies in the
Reader's Guide to Periodical Literature (Polygon et al., 1985~. Comple
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446
IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCLEAR WAR
meeting the survey efforts, some clinical psychologists and psychiatrists
have lately begun to note the intrusion of concerns about nuclear war
within the therapy hour.
This review of the survey data will suggest that ordinary people's nuclear
war beliefs have changed remarkably little over the four eventful decades
since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Despite massive tech-
nological change in the power of the weapons and in their delivery time,
despite their considerable proliferation, and despite dramatic fluctuations
in the geopolitical situation, we will see that the adult American's response
has endured with remarkable consistency. Moreover, people's responses
differ surprisingly little across age, gender, race, education, income, and
political ideology. Apparently this is one thing on which ordinary citizens
agree, and have agreed, for decades.
Most important, people view nuclear war as not very probable, a hy-
pothetical event. The average person views nuclear war as fairly unlikely
within the next 10 years.2 A local survey in Pittsburgh found that, on
average, people estimated a one-third chance of a nuclear war within their
lifetimes (Fiske et al., 1983), and a local sample in Chicago put the
estimate at one-half (Tyler and McGraw, 19831. Three decades ago, people
were asked about the likelihood of another world war, which they over-
whelmingly believed would be nuclear; they viewed such a war as some-
what more likely than people do now, but the average person still estimated
the chances as 50/50 (Withey, 19541. People are considerably more pes-
simistic about the possibility of nuclear war if a conventional war should
erupt. Since 1946, between 63 and 79 percent of Americans have believed
that any subsequent major war would necessarily be nuclear (Kramer et
al., 19831. Overall, however, the indications are that people now view
nuclear war as unlikely, on balance.
If the hypothetical were to occur, people expect it would be horrific.
As early as 1954 and as recently as 1982, survey respondents described
similar images of the event and its aftermath (Fiske et al., 1983; Withey,
1954~.3 Two features of these descriptions are notable. First, material
destruction is described more than human destruction, and second, abstract
content outweighs concrete content. This primary emphasis on the material
and abstract, rather than on concrete human devastation, is in marked
contrast to the descriptions of Hiroshima survivors, who focus almost
entirely on the human misery (e.g., Lifton, 1968; Thurlow, 1982; Time,
1985a).
In describing what is hypothetical to them, American citizens report
images involving material damage, mostly in the abstract as complete ruin
or sometimes in the concrete as a blinding light; as buildings on fire; and,
subsequently, as dust, barren land, and no cities. References to death and
injury also occur, mostly in the abstract, but also sometimes as concrete
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ADULT BELIEFS, FEELINGS, kD ACTIONS REGARDING NUCLEI We 447
references to the death of family and friends; to charred bodies; and to
injuries such as mutilation, burns, bleeding, hair loss, sores, vomiting,
and diarrhea. Some typical, but longer than average, responses to our
telephone survey (Fiske et al., 1983, p. 55) include three relatively abstract
ones:
· Nobody left. We'll just all be blown up. The loser will be gone
completely.
· It would destroy people. Everything in the world. All the beautiful
things will be gone.
· Death. Destruction. Chaos. Survival. Hiroshima.
And two relatively concrete ones:
· I hope I die with everyone else. I can't see planning for it. Utter
destruction, desolation, ruin.
· Death. Buildings on fire. Screaming. Wondering what to do. Being
scared. Take cover. Wondering what to do next.
The typical images elicited in this survey setting contain about twice as
much abstract content as concrete content. People report general impres-
sions more than specific, sensory, proximate, personal impressions. And,
as noted, they focus more on material damage than on human damage.
One naturally wonders whether the telephone survey context determines
the abstractness and material focus of these reports.
Turning to the highly personal, in-depth setting of a clinical approach,
some observers report that they, their patients, or both have vivid images
of nuclear holocaust (e.g., Nelson, 1985; Pilisuk, 1985; Wolman, 1984,
cited in Wagner, 19851. Lifton (1983) describes end-of-the-world imagery
in literature and in some individuals. For example, a "vision of crashing
skyscrapers under a flaming sky," was reported by nuclear physicist and
activist Eugene Rabinowitch and "dreams of doom" were reported by
United Nations Secretary General Dag Hammarskj old. Artists have de-
picted their visions of the bomb and nuclear catastrophe (Boyer, 1985;
Time, 1985b). For example, James Agee created a fragment of a novel
depicting official celebrations of the bomb above ground, with twisted,
menacing events below ground (as described in Boyer [198511.
Of course, although these data provide an intimate view of a few peo-
ple's concrete images, it is not clear that these people are typical of the
larger public who are not artists, or who do not seek out a therapist known
to be a peace activist, or who are not themselves prominent peace activists.
People with nuclear war images oriented toward the concrete and the
human may well be exceptional. Indeed, Lifton (1983) argues that vivid
end-of-the-world imagery involves "an anticipatory imagination capable
of sensitivity to a trend of events which other people have become numb
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448
IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCLEAR WAR
to" (p. 131). For the present purposes, survey documentation of the modal
citizen's image seems the most reliable indicator of how most people
understand nuclear war. By this evidence, the images are more abstract
than concrete, more oriented toward material ruin than human misery. At
the same time, people expect complete annihilation.
Included in that annihilation is the self. The ordinary person does not
expect to survive a nuclear holocaust. Even abstract references are clear
in that respect (utter destruction, nobody left, annihilation). Moreover,
when specifically asked whether they personally would expect to survive,
people on average rate their chances as poor (The Gallup Poll, 1983; cf.
Kramer et al., 1983~. People's perception that they would not survive a
nuclear war represents the only major change from people's earlier beliefs.
The number of people rating their chances as poor has steadily increased
over the decades from about 40 percent in the 1950s to about 70 percent
today (The Gallup Poll, 19831. In the early 1950s, survey respondents
commented about the quality of life after an atomic attack, describing the
possible psychological and economic aftermath (Withey, 19541. They
described the possibilities of panic, low or high morale, scarcity of food,
production problems, and failed transportation systems. In describing these
long-term effects of an atomic attack, the clear majority of people (68
percent) thought that the military would provide complete protection or
at least prevent heavy damage. Today, people no longer believe that the
U.S. military has the capacity to prevent heavy damage, probably because
they perceive the Soviet Union to be ahead in the arms race and because
they believe that a nuclear war cannot be limited (Kramer et al., 1983~.
Thus, people used to comment about the quality of life in a post-nuclear-
war world; now they do not expect to see it.
To summarize, people report horrific images consisting of mostly ab-
stract content related to extreme material destruction, along with content
that is concrete and content related to terrible human destruction. Most
people now do not expect to survive a nuclear confrontation, in contrast
to earlier expectations. However, people's modal belief about a nuclear
war includes a relatively moderate expectation of its occurrence. Finally,
these beliefs do not differ dramatically across identifiable sectors of the
adult population.
MODAL FEELINGS ABOUT NUCLEAR WAR
People worry seldom, but they overwhelmingly
favor a mutual nuclear freeze.
The beliefs people commonly report about a nuclear holocaust are bleak,
which implies that people should also report some concomitant emotional
reactions. When asked directly what emotions come to mind regarding a
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ADULT BEl lEFS, FEELINGS, AND ACTIONS REGARDING NUCLEAR WAR 449
nuclear war, the typical person does report fear, terror, and worry (Fiske
et al., 1983) or fear and sadness (Skovholt et al., 1985~. On the whole,
however, most people do not frequently think about nuclear war (Fiske
et al., 1983; Hamilton et al., 1985a). The typical adult apparently worries
seldom or relatively little about the possibility (Kramer et al., 19831. And
such emotional responses do not vary dramatically as a function of social
class or overall political ideology.
Women sometimes report more anxiety than do men (e.g., Hamilton
et al., 1985d; Newcomb, 1985a), but this may be due to reporting biases
caused by gender role differences in the perceived appropriateness of
revealing one's feelings (e.g., Ruble and Ruble, 19821. Many studies of
children also report higher levels of concern (e.g., Escalona, 1982; Good-
man et al., 1983; Schwebel, 1982; see also W. R. Beardslee, this volume,
for a review of representative sample surveys). Similarly, college students
report more distress than do their parents (Hamilton et al., 1985d). Again,
however, it is not clear how much this difference is due to reporting
biases, as opposed to actual levels of felt worry. Quite possibly, many of
the same factors that determine one's willingness to report worry publicly
also determine one's willingness to admit worry privately, but it would
be difficult to evaluate this premise empirically. The available evidence
indicates, on the whole, that the modal level of reported worry is not high.
The relatively low level of worry is puzzling to many observers, given
people's consensual horrific images and their low estimates of personal
survival. If one combines people's estimated probability of nuclear war
and their estimated probability of dying, should a nuclear war occur,
people are essentially saying that they have about one chance in three of
dying from a nuclear attack. Returning to the analogy used at the beginning
of the paper, if most people received a cancer diagnosis giving comparable
odds, they would doubtless be considerably upset. Why is there this
discrepancy between people's understanding and their feelings?
One commonly suggested possibility is that people cope emotionally
with the threat of nuclear war in different ways. Some preliminary survey
evidence indicates that people take distinct cognitive and emotional stances
that range from romanticist to hedonist to fatalist to deterrentist to disarmist
and that their emotional reactions van accordingly (Hamilton et al., 1985a).
For example, romanticists believe that fundamental human goodness will
prevent nuclear war, and they report little anxiety, worry, and thought
about the issue. Hedonists believe that the prospect of nuclear war justifies
immediate gratification, and they report a high degree of personal impact,
a high probability of nuclear war, but only moderate worry and moderate
anxiety. Altruistic fatalists believe nuclear war is quite possible but not
preventable, so in the meantime they should work for the good of hu-
manity, and they report low levels of personal impact and anxiety. De
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IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCLEAR WAR
terrentists report some worry and anxiety and they estimate a moderate
probability of nuclear war. Disarmists report the highest levels of thought,
worry, and anxiety.
More generally, people's level of nuclear anxiety is related to noncon-
forming attitudes, felt vulnerability, drug use, low self-esteem, and per-
ceived lack of social support (Newcomb, 1985b). Similarly, nuclear anxiety
is related to death anxiety (Hamilton et al., 1985b). Of course, the direction
of causality is not clear. People who experience nuclear anxiety may
therefore be more vulnerable socially and emotionally (e.g., Escalona,
1982), but the reverse is equally possible: people who are vulnerable for
other reasons may then focus disproportionately on the nuclear threat.
These are promising lines of inquiry, but the data on these matters are
only beginning to come in.
Clinical interviews with less representative samples but with more
depth- indicate deep-seated worry, fear, and anxiety on the part of some
individuals (Nelson, 1985; Wolman, 1984, cited in Wagner, 19851. These
individuals are not typical of the larger population, however, so unfor-
tunately, we do not know whether the interviews uncovered something
about those particular people or a deeper truth about all of us.
The essential research requires both in-depth interviews and represen-
tative samples; it apparently remains to be done. Nevertheless, the best
current evidence indicates that, although people report concern when asked,
for most people, most of the time, the issue is not emotionally central.
People's feelings about nuclear war emerge more dramatically, how-
ever, in their policy preferences. The typical person clearly-supports a
mutual freeze on nuclear arms, although not a unilateral freeze (The Gallup
Poll, 1983; Kramer et al., 1983~. Support for a mutual freeze is remarkably
consensual (77 percent agree); it is unusually broad based, showing few
differences across gender, age, income, and education (Milburn et al.,
19841; and it has held firm over the decades since 1945 (Ladd, 19821.
The typical person believes that the use of atomic weapons in Japan was
necessary and proper but does not accept their use any longer (Kramer et
al., 19831.
Some group differences in attitudes do occur regarding the use of nuclear
force, with men and older generations being more supportive. Men and
women have differed consistently, although not dramatically, in their
acceptance of the use and risks of nuclear weapons since 1949, with women
being less favorable. This fits with the 5 to 10 percent gender gap on
other foreign policy issues related to force (e.g., Public Opinion, 19851.
Political generations also differ in their approval of the use of force gen-
erally and in the nuclear case specifically (Jeffries, 1974; Pavelchak and
Schofield, 19851; there is a nuclear generation gap, with younger gen-
erations being somewhat less accepting of the use of force. Income and
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ADULT BEHEFS, FEELINGS, AND ACTIONS REGARDING NUCLEAR WAR 451
education can influence nuclear force attitudes (Jeffries, 1974), with in-
creases in either leading to decreased support, although this is not found
consistently (Milburn et al., 19841. Note that the gender, age, and class
differences do not occur in nuclear freeze support (Milburn et al., 1984),
but only in the use of nuclear force, should the occasion arise.
MODAL ACTIONS REGARDING NUCLEAR WAR
Most people do nothing.
The typical person does not act in any way that goes beyond voicing
support for the policy of a nuclear freeze. Age, gender, and social class
are not reliable predictors of activism, although political ideology may
be. Most people simply do not write antinuclear letters to the editor or to
their elected representatives, they do not join or financially support the
relevant organizations, and they do not sign petitions (Fiske et al., 1983,
Milburn and Watanabe, 1985; Pavelchak and Schofield, 1985; Tyler and
McGraw, 1983~. From one perspective, given people's nuclear war be-
liefs, including the low likelihood of personal survival and their at least
minimal worry, they might be expected to be more active. What is es-
pecially surprising, to some observers, is that people are inactive in a
matter of such literally earth-shattering consequence. From another per-
spective, however, the inaction of ordinary citizens is not at all surprising,
for most people most of the time pay scant attention to politics and almost
never engage in political activity beyond voting, if that (Kinder and Sears,
1985; Milbrath and Goel, 1977~. Moreover, with regard to this particular
issue, there is no evidence that people expect their actions to have con-
sequences; that is, they have a low sense of political efficacy. I will come
back to this point.
To summarize, the modal person has strong beliefs about nuclear war.
Although it seems to them fairly unlikely that it will occur and people
describe it mostly in the abstract, the modal person imagines total material
and human destruction and emphatically does not expect to survive. Peo-
ple's feelings are elusive; they do not worry about nuclear war very often,
but when asked, they report that the possibility of nuclear war is fearsome
and they overwhelmingly favor a mutual nuclear freeze. Most people do
not act in support of their beliefs and feelings.
SOURCES OF THE CONSENSUAL BELIEFS, FEELINGS
AND (IN)ACTION
Family, friends, and the media
Most aspects of the typical person's response are remarkably consistent
across different sectors of the population. One naturally wonders about
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IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCLEAR WAR
the sources of such a powerful consensus. There are two especially plau-
sible sources.
It seems evident that people's significant others would fashion their
responses to the possibility of nuclear war. Unfortunately, on this point
the hard data are sparse. Moreover, they are limited to nuclear policy
attitudes' so the data do not describe the sources of people's more emo-
tional responses, their beliefs, or their actions. As with most political
attitudes, one might expect that the parents primarily socialize the child
(Kinder and Sears, 1985), but the data on children's responses to nuclear
war suggest that this may not be the case (W. R. Beardslee, this volume).
In one study, college students' stance toward nuclear war resembled the
perceived but not actual stance of their parents (Hamilton et al., 1985a,c).
Thus, although they think they share their parents' perspective, perhaps
they often do not. As noted earlier, young people are less accepting of
the use of force, including nuclear force. This discrepancy is preserved
by most families' reported failure to discuss nuclear issues (Hamilton et
al., 1985c). One possible explanation for the actual but not perceived
discrepancy between the attitudes of young people and their parents is
that major political events can powerfully influence people's political
attitudes, especially if they occur around adolescence. Such events account
for generational shifts in people's attitudes toward the use of force, for
example (Jeffries, 19741. Hence, postadolescents can experience cross
pressures between family ties and world events. Perhaps the nuclear gen-
eration gap results from this.
Moving outside the family, it is well documented that people tend to
have friends whose attitudes resemble their own, both because similarities
attract and because friends influence each other (Berscheid, 19851. More-
over, people perceive that their friends' attitudes are similar, to an even
greater extent than they actually are (Levinger and Breedlove, 1966; New-
comb, 19611. Hence, people probably perceive that their nuclear war
attitudes are shared by their friends. Although the relevant evidence is
slim, college students do perceive their friends to have similar attitudes
(Hamilton et al., 1985a)-whether they do or not is another question.
More data are needed to investigate how family and friends influence
nuclear war attitudes in older adults as well as in college students.
The media are also plausible sources for the powerful consensus in
people's nuclear beliefs, feelings, and actions. When directly asked the
source of their responses to the possibility of nuclear war, people often
cite media coverage (Fiske et al., 1983; Milburn et al., 19841. A recent
media event allowed social researchers to investigate whether people's
intuitions are right about this. Dozens of efforts examined the impact of
the docudrama The Day After, which was televised in November 1983. I
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ADULT BELIEFS, FEELINGS, ED ACTIONS REG~DINGNUCLE~ We 453
will devote considerable attention in this paper to that event, for several
reasons. One is that it is a diagnostic example or case study of media
effects. Another is that it allows me to make a point about motivating the
average citizen to express an opinion based on his or her perceptions.
Also, there are scores of studies on The Day After; it was the single major
source of data available for this review. Finally, the conclusions are in-
triguingly well substantiated by research done a dozen years ago on the
effects of the film Hiroshima-Nagasaki: 1945.
The single major impact of The Day After was to increase the salience
of nuclear war as an issue. In 1970, a study examined the impact of the
film Hiroshima-Nagasaki: 1945 (Granberg and Faye, 1972~. Results of
this study were strikingly parallel to those of The Day After studies. Like
the recent film, the earlier film makes the abstract concrete and brings
the unthinkable into awareness. And like the recent film, the earlier one
demonstrates the specific ways that the media can influence people: by
making certain issues salient and by reinforcing people's prior reactions.
Consider each effect in turn.4
The Hiroshima-Nagasaki: 1945 study concluded that the film sensitized
people to the issues of nuclear war. The Day After studies concluded
similarly that the movie made nuclear war issues highly salient. People
consistently reported that they spent more time thinking about nuclear war
after watching the movie (Brown, 1984; Cross and Saxe, 1984; Feldman
and Sigelman, in press; Reser, 1984; Schofield and Pavelchak, 1984),
and they were far less likely to report that they put out of mind the threat
of nuclear war (Warner-Amex Qube, 1983, cited in Schofield and Pav-
elchak, 19851. This salience effect was especially true of less-educated
viewers (Feldman and Sigelman, in press). However, the heightened sa-
lience of nuclear war was short-lived, fading after several weeks (Reser,
1984; Schofield and Pavelchak, 1984~. The temporary effect of The Day
After on salience apparently was due to overall media hoopla rather than
to the movie itself (Oskamp et al., 19841. Viewers and nonviewers alike
reported more nuclear war-related thoughts after the movie (Schofield and
Pavelchak, 1984~. People also spent more time thinking about the issue
if they had read newspaper articles about it or discussed it with others
(Feldman and Sigelman, in press). The single clearest impact of The Day
After was an increase in the salience of nuclear war in the media and,
consequently, in people's minds. This was a temporary but widespread
phenomenon.
If increased salience was the major impact of the movie (and other
media events), what are the most likely effects of salience? Existing
research indicates a general principle. Making an issue salient polarizes
the individual's thoughts, feelings, and actions; that is, however the person
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IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCrrAR WAR
would respond to a stimulus, the response becomes more extreme as a
result of the salience of the issue (Taylor and Fiske, 19784. As people
dwell on their thoughts, they become more focused (Teaser, 1978~. As
people think about their feelings, they become stronger, and as people
focus on an issue, they are more likely to act on it. Salience exaggerates
their response in whatever direction it would have tended to go anyway.
The effects of The Day After and Hiroshima-Nagasaki: 1945 are entirely
consistent with these standard effects of salience. People's beliefs, which
were bleak originally, became even more pessimistic. Two studies of The
Day After directly examined changes in people's images of nuclear war,
and the results confirm the potential influence of the media on people's
concrete images. After the movie, people were considerably more pes-
simistic about the availability of shelters, the adequacy of medical care,
the sufficiency of food supplies, the possibility of social chaos, the pro-
portion of survivors, the likelihood of their own survival, and the possi-
bility of rebuilding the country afterward (Feldman and Sigelman, in press;
Oskamp et al., 19841. The politically inexperienced and the young were
especially likely to report that they learned a lot from the movie (Oskamp
et al., 19841. Considering the focus of The Day After, which concretely
depicted the aftermath of nuclear war, the movie was effective in influ-
encing people's images. Presumably, the movie was designed primarily
to increase the salience of people's concrete images, as are other persuasive
attempts to bring nuclear war home to people.
Many observers also expected the movie to influence people's feel-
ings their emotions and nuclear policy preferences. Consistent with the
usual effects of salience, The Day After not only worsened people's images
of nuclear war, it also seems to have made people's emotional reactions
somewhat more extreme. Notably, the earlier movie Hiroshima-Nagasaki:
1945 had increased people's reported anxiety and decreased their desire
to survive a nuclear war (Granberg and Faye, 19721. The effects of The
Day After apparently were similar. People reported that the film was
disturbing, frightening, depressing, and numbing (Reser, 1984~. Some
people reported feeling more worried after watching the movie, and this
was especially true for less-educated people (Feldman and Sigelman, in
press). After the movie aired, watchers and nonwatchers alike reported
more hopelessness regarding nuclear war and decreased desire to survive
a nuclear war (Schofield and Pavelchak, 19841. Not all researchers found
effects on all the relevant emotions, however; the data are somewhat
uneven on these points. Nevertheless, there is some evidence that the
movie increased people's prior emotional reactions to the prospect of
nuclear war. According to one experimental study, widespread public
expectations that the movie would be upsetting probably enhanced its
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IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCLEAR WAR
preferences regarding nuclear war and other policy issues do not come
from persuasion by the media.
Also, in this case, people's policy preferences, at least with regard to
the mutual freeze, are fairly strong already, so it would be difficult for
them to become more strong than they already are. Finally, The Day After
was not addressing policy issues (cf. Schofield and Pavelchak, 1984), nor
was it addressing the efficacy of political action (cf. Wolf et al., in press).
In sum, with respect to people's beliefs and feelings, people's prior
reactions to nuclear war were not substantially changed; their images,
emotions, and policy preferences were not transformed to be opposite
from what they had been before. Few, if any, were converted to pacifism.
But conversion to the opposite is not the only way for people to change.
The movie enhanced people's bleak images. It had some impact on the
extremity of people's reported emotions, which were stronger after the
movie. Both probably resulted from the overall media coverage that dra-
matically heightened the salience of nuclear war.
Some observers also expected The Day After to have a galvanizing
effect on nuclear protest activities. However, single media events do not
typically influence people's political action. Consistent with this standard
research result, people did not register protests with the government or
the public media. The- movie did not create a flood of mail or calls to the
White House, Congress, the networks, or the newspapers (Schofield and
Pavelchak, 19851. However, the salience of the nuclear war issue did
affect people's behavior in very particular ways. Salience typically ca-
talyzes people to action (Taylor and Fiske, 1978.) because people are more
likely to act on their attitudes when they are held in awareness (Kiesler
et al., 1969~. Consistent with this usual effect of salience, The Day After
motivated people's intent to act on their feelings, although in limited ways.
People called an antinuclear toll-free number given on television, they
contacted Physicians for Social Responsibility, and they contacted other
antinuclear groups (King, 1985; Oskamp et al., 1984; Schofield and Pav-
elchak, 1985; cf. Wolf et al., in press). People contacted these sources
mainly to seek information rather than to engage in antinuclear action.
Thus, The Day After changed the salience of nuclear war, thereby spot-
lighting people's prior concerns and enhancing their intent to act on their
existing attitudes. Presumably, the movie did this by increasing the sa-
lience of people's concrete images. Consistent with the aims of antinuclear
groups' efforts to make people's images of nuclear war concrete, salient
concrete images were indeed associated with antinuclear action, in this
event, as is true in general (Fiske et al., 1983; Milburn and Watanabe,
1985; note that the latter researchers suggest that both concrete and abstract
images may be associated with antinuclear action).
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ADULT BELIEFS, FEELINGS, AND ACTIONS REGARDING NUCLEAR WAR 457
To summarize, the movie had a remarkably clear impact on people's
beliefs, emotions, and information-seeking behavior; it had remarkably
little impact on their policy preferences and political behavior. A movie
such as The Day After can change the images of the inexperienced. And
the salience of people's prior worries about nuclear war can be enhanced
by massive media events, such as this one, presumably by increasing the
amount of thought people give to their feelings and to their concrete
images. Salience also motivates people's behavioral intentions to act on
their existing feelings, at least in terms of gathering information. These
effects may be especially true of the politically inexperienced, the young,
and the less educated. Apart from the media, people's overall attitudes
toward nuclear war may well be shaped by significant others in their lives,
as are other political attitudes, but the data are sparse on this point.
PREDISPOSITIONS TO ACTION
Antinuclear activists and survivalists both think a lot about
nuclear war and believe they car' do something about it.
Despite media events such as The Day After, for most people, most of
the time, nuclear war is not a salient concern. But it is for a tiny fraction
of the population. The tiny fraction for whom the issue is chronically
salient is an important fraction: they tend to be active, and they create
events that the media cover, so they potentially make the issue more salient
for everyone. Salience exaggerates people's propensity to act in whatever
direction they already would tend to act. Hence, two types of action can
be spurred by salience: antinuclear action and prodefense action. This
section will portray the typical antinuclear activist and the typical pro-
defense activist because they provide some clues to the discrepancy be-
tween people's bleak beliefs and their usual inaction.
The antinuclear activist may have engaged in only a few modest be-
haviors, such as writing congressional representatives and donating money
to antinuclear groups. Nevertheless, this is far more than the average
person does, and far more than people's usual levels of political activity.
Even this humble degree of antinuclear action is worth examining. Factors
that motivate antinuclear protest centrally include an extreme chronic
salience of the issue and an unusual sense of political efficacy, as well as
some attitudinal and demographic factors.
Chronic personal salience clearly distinguishes the activist. Antinuclear
activists report that they frequently think about the issue (Fiske et al.,
1983; Hamilton et al., 1985a; Pavelchak and Schofield, 1985), on the
order of several minutes a day. Having the issue on their minds apparently
creates detailed and concrete images of nuclear war (Fiske et al., 1983;
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458
IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCLEAR WAR
Milburn and Watanabe, 19851. The examples given earlier are also illus-
trative here: images of dismembered bodies, people screaming, buildings
on fire, miles of rubble, and a barren landscape. Presumably, these uniquely
salient concrete images are motivating for these people. Moreover, the
combination of high perceived severity and high perceived likelihood of
nuclear war is a good predictor of intent to become involved in antinuclear
activity (Wolf et al., in press).
The activist also has a strong sense of political efficacy (Flamenbaum
et al., 1985; Garrett, 1985; Hamilton et al., 1985d; Milburn and Watanabe,
1985; Oskamp et al., 1984; Tyler and McGraw, 19831. The antinuclear
activist believes that nuclear war is preventable, not inevitable, and that
citizens working together can influence government action to decrease the
chance of a nuclear war. The antinuclear activist is specifically motivated
by a sense of personal political capability, combined with a belief in the
efficacy of political action (Wolf et al., in press). The correlation between
political efficacy and behavioral intent is substantial by social science
standards (Schofield and Pavelchak, 1984; Wolf et al., in press). More-
over, although activists believe that governments create the risk of nuclear
war, they also believe that citizens can and should be responsible for
preventing it (Tyler and McGraw, 19831. Not surprisingly, considering
their strong sense of political efficacy, antinuclear activists tend to par-
ticipate in other types of political activities as well (Fiske et al., 1983;
Milburn and Watanabe, 1985; Oskamp et al., 1984~.
Note that although activists believe nuclear war is preventable, they do
not believe it is survivable (Tyler and McGraw, 19831. Hence, their sense
of efficacy is limited to political activity, not to their own ability to live
through the holocaust should they fail.
How do people develop a strong sense of political efficacy? Doubtless
there are complex personal and social causes (Kinder and Sears, 19851.
The activist's sense of political efficacy is linked to a broad sense of
personal, rather than external, control over life events in general (Tyler
and McGraw, 19834. Moreover, antinuclear activists perceive social sup-
port for their actions from role models, family, friends, and people who
are important to them (Flamenbaum et al., 1985; Garrett, 1985; McClenny
and Allbright, 1985; Pavelchak and Schofield, 19851. Antinuclear activ-
ists, then, are people who think about nuclear war a lot and think they
can help prevent its occurrence, and they are fortified by a sense of personal
control and social support for their activity.
In addition to heightened salience and efficacy, antinuclear activists
differ from the modal person in some less clear-cut and less interesting
ways. They of course have even stronger antinuclear attitudes than does
the average citizen (Fiske et al., 1983; Flamenbaum et al., 1985~. They
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ADULT BELIEFS, FEELINGS, kD ACTIONS REGARDING NUCLEI We 459
sometimes report more worry, more anxiety, more anger, more outrage,
and less hopelessness (Garrett, 1985; Hamilton etal., 1985b,d; Milburn
and Watanabe, 1985; Oskamp et al., 1984; Tyler and McGraw, 19831.5
Antinuclear activists may be more likely to be liberals and Democrats
(Oskamp et al., 1984; Tyler and McGraw, 1983; Werner and Roy, 1985),
although this result is not always found (Fiske et al., 1983; Pavelchak
and Schofield, 19851. They may be more likely to be educated and well-
off (Tyler and McGraw, 1983), although, again, not all researchers find
this (Fiske et al., 1983; Flamenbaum et al., 1985; Milburn and Watanabe,
1985~.
Finally, the activists' view of the likelihood of nuclear war is still
unclear. One might expect that frequently imagining the event would make
it seem more likely (Carroll, 19781. On the other hand, activity by oneself
and others might be viewed as decreasing the odds of nuclear war, es-
pecially for people with a strong sense of efficacy. Some research indicates
that antinuclear activists indeed do estimate a higher probability of nuclear
war (Milburn and Watanabe, 1985; Tyler and McGraw, 1983; but cf.
Fiske et al., 19831. More data are clearly needed on all these points.
To summarize, antinuclear activists are distinguished by the chronic
salience of the issue and their consequently concrete, detailed images.
They are also distinctive by virtue of their political efficacy, in the sense
that they believe nuclear war is preventable but not survivable. Antinuclear
activists do not, however, differ dramatically from the majority of Amer-
icans in their attitudes toward nuclear war; they express only somewhat
more extreme attitudes and feelings than does the ordinary American.
Hence, it is mainly their activity, not their thoughts and feelings, that
requires explanation. Issue salience and political efficacy no some distance
toward doing this.
, ~
407
Less is known about the prodefense activist. In a sense, such people
are doubly puzzling, for they are likely not only to oppose a nuclear freeze
and favor a defense buildup, which puts them in a minority of Americans,
but also to be active in the service of their attitudes, which also makes
them unusual. One form of prodefense activism is survivalist activity that
includes building a shelter, storing food and water, making family evac-
uation plans, and the like. Survivalists rate nuclear war as relatively prob-
able (Tyler and McGraw, 1983; but see Hamilton et al., 1985a). Accordingly,
nuclear war may well be a chronically salient issue for them, as it is for
the antinuclear activist. In this case, however, salience catalyzes an entirely
different sort of activity, which is in line with different preexisting atti-
tudes. How they acquired those attitudes is unclear, but long-standing
predispositions grounded in family, peer, and group identification are
likely influences.
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IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCEFAR WAR
Survivalists' type of efficacy differs too from those of ordinary people
and antinuclear activists. Survivalists believe that nuclear war is not pre-
ventable, but that it is survivable (Tyler and McGraw, 1983~. Hence,
although survivalists believe nuclear war is likely, they do not report being
worried about it (Hamilton et al., 1985a; Tyler and McGraw, 19831.
Consistent with their belief that nuclear war is not preventable, survivalists
are low on political efficacy. Surprisingly, they are also low on what
psychologists call internal locus of control; that is, they do not believe
they have much effect on their lives in general. Perhaps this is consistent
with their belief that responsibility for nuclear war lies with historical
forces, not with the ordinary citizen or the government (Tyler and McGraw,
19831. More data are needed to describe not only the survivalist but also
other types of more obviously prodefense activists.
To summarize, action first depends on people's sense of efficacy, that
is, their perception of whether action might make a difference to the
prevention of nuclear war and to their own survival. Action also depends
on the salience of people's beliefs, that is, how often they think about
nuclear war. Political efficacy and issue salience matter both to people
who act to prevent nuclear war and to people who act to survive nuclear
war if it occurs.
CONCLUSION
Decades ago psychologists anticipated people's fears about the bomb;
they initially worked to assuage these fears, to promote public trust in the
atomic experts, and to examine civil defense from a psychological per-
spective (Morowski and Goldstein, 1985~. But these efforts soon tapered
off as it became clear that, surprisingly, the ordinary person was apparently
less concerned than the researchers expected. Despite high levels of re-
ported awareness about the issues, people report relatively little fear or
worry, at least in survey interviews, and most people take no action to
prevent nuclear war. Many observers have wondered publicly about the
ordinary citizen's apparent indifference when confronted with the potential
annihilation of humankind (e.g., Goldman and Greenberg, 1982; Lifton,
1982; Mack, 1981, 1982~. These contrasts have prompted the enduring
puzzle variously called fear suppression, psychic numbing, denial, and
apathy, which are attributed to people's feelings of impotence, helpless-
ness, inefficacy, and the like. The discrepancy between people's nuclear
understanding and their elusive emotional and behavioral concern contin-
ues to be a puzzle.
Most participants in the symposium on which this proceedings volume
is based and most readers of this book probably agree that nuclear war is
an important issue, as shown by their involvement. But our personal and
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ADULT BEHEFS, FEELINGS, kD ACTIONS REGARDING NUCLEI Why 461
professional involvement in this issue has a risk. It creates a danger of
what social psychologists call a false consensus bias (Ross et al., 19771;
that is, it is too easy to believe that the average citizen shares a sense of
urgency, shares a sense that something must be done. The false consensus
biases us to believe that others share our attitudes. Becoming aware of
the false consensus bias means realizing that, for the average citizen, the
issue is not all that salient. We must not overestimate the degree of
disturbance in the average person. Although they are clearly aware and
deeply concerned, nuclear war, for the most part, is not on their minds.
The average person is also low on political efficacy, which is probably
in contrast to the majority of readers and symposium participants. But
most people's inaction is consistent with their understanding of political
reality. We must not judge people by our own values.
Remaining relatively unworried and inactive, despite the horrific pos-
sibility of nuclear war, is not irrational if people are correct in judging
that their activism would have no consequences. The ordinary person does
not possess the antinuclear activist's sense of political efficacy, does not
believe that nuclear war is preventable by citizen actions. And, according
to some analysts, people are right about this: the activity of one ordinary
person hardly makes a difference. Some observers argue that even col-
lective public opinion rarely influences foreign policy; they rank public
opinion far behind perceived geopolitical realities in influencing govern-
ment leaders' decisions in this realm (Rosenau, 19671. Some experts even
argue that the public is not competent to judge in these matters anyway.
If one accepts all these premises, then ordinary people's relative lack of
worry and complete inaction, despite their horrific beliefs and clear ex-
pectation that they would die in a nuclear war, are not irrational. Viewed
this way, one can come to the defense of the ordinary person, and there
is no massive problem revealed by the discrepancy in beliefs, feelings,
and action about nuclear war.
Many readers and symposium participants would resist this conclusion.
Given the unbelievable magnitude of the potential event and the fact that
most people understand this magnitude to a great extent, the discrepancy
between their beliefs and their relatively unworried inaction might seem
intolerable. Some would call it irrational, or at least a major mental health
issue (e.g., Goldman and Greenberg, 19821. Caution dictates, however,
that one not confuse the magnitude of the event with the realistic possibility
of affecting its occurrence. No one really knows whether citizen action
will help to prevent a nuclear war. It is not an empirical question, and
informed opinions differ about the effectiveness of citizen action.
Hence, those who are worried cannot take it for granted that everyone
shares their urgency, but that everyone has somehow suppressed it. One
sees this in some psychologists' claims that the average person is dra
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462
IMAGES AND RISKS OF NUCLEAR WAR
matically disturbed about the possibility of nuclear war. Unfortunately, it
is admittedly possible that researchers overestimate the ordinary person's
concerns because they themselves are professionally concerned with nu-
clear war; the researchers' own values and concerns may lead to inad-
vertent exaggeration of the psychological disruption in the ordinary person
(cf. Fischhoff et al., 1983; Hamilton et al., 1985a).
Similarly, the politically active participants cannot take it for granted
that everyone shares their sense of efficacy. Most people believe, rightly
or wrongly, that they can do nothing with regard to nuclear war. Never-
theless, some people, not many, do share the active participants' sense
of political efficacy. These are likely to be people who have been politically
active before, and they can be mobilized to be active again. One role that
the active few serve is to keep the issue salient for everyone.
There is a final lesson from the data reviewed here. People do have
feelings and beliefs about nuclear war, and these are not inappropriate,
given what is known. Granted, the issue of nuclear war is not central for
most people, most of the time. When it is salient, however, people do
respond to it. Because most people in the United States report that nuclear
war creates worry, fear, and sadness when they think about it, and because
most people support a mutual freeze, it seems likely that the effect of
continued activity, on the part of some, makes the issue salient for ev-
eryone. Keeping the issue salient is likely to accentuate people's existing
worry and their preference for a mutual nuclear freeze. For those inclined
to be active in the service of their beliefs, there are two key tasks to give
citizens a voice based on their perceptions of this horrific possibility.
First, we must find a way to give people a sense of political efficacy
or hope through action. This is not easy, but one clear message of existing
data is that one must pair fear-arousing communications with possible
action solutions for people (cf. Skovholt et al., 1985; Wolf et al., in
press). The solutions must be perceived to be politically effective and
something the ordinary person is capable of doing.
Second, we must keep the issue salient by public events such as this
symposium and by media coverage of those events, which, ironically, is
even more important. Keeping the issue alive may help to keep us all
alive.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I wish to thank William Beardslee, Michael Milburn, Steven Neuberg,
Mark Pavelchak, and Janet Schofield for comments on an earlier draft of
this paper.
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ADULT BELIEFS, FEELINGS, AND ACTIONS REGARDING NUCLEAR WAR 463
NOTES
iThis is partly because much of the relevant hard data are only now being generated.
Hence, this article, of necessity, cites several unpublished papers and convention presen-
tations.
2Roughly a quarter of the population view it as very unlikely, a quarter as fairly unlikely,
and a quarter as fairly likely; the remainder say it is very likely or express no opinion (The
Gallup Poll, 1983).
3An image, for these purposes, is a conception, an impression, or an understanding; it
is a mental picture, but not necessarily visual. Readers familiar with the concept of a
cognitive schema may wish to substitute that term for image. Image is used here to minimize
jargon and because of its connotations of something gleaned through public channels such
as the media. See Fiske et al. (1983) for a fuller discussion of these issues.
4Readers familiar with the social psychological concepts of vividness (e.g., making the
abstract concrete) and salience (e.g., bringing the issue into awareness) will note that the
most likely relationship of the two concepts here is that increasing the vividness of people's
concrete images apparently contributed to the salience of the nuclear war issue, see Fiske
and Taylor (1984) for further discussion of these two concepts.
sSimilarly, worry sometimes predicts antinuclear attitudes (Feshbach, 1982; Hamilton et
al., 1985a).
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
political efficacy
