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Index A Agricultural impacts air pollutants and fallout, 130 farming methods, 376-377, 400 grain crops, 123, 127- 130, 132, 194, 284, 286, 375-376, 558, 577; see also Food growing seasons, 118, 126, 130, 164, 286 precipitation changes, 123, 286, 400 reduced energy inputs, 127-128, 376, 558 soil deterioration and losses, 286, 400 sunlight reductions, 123, 127 temperature declines, 118- 119, 123- 130, 286, 558, 584 Air pollutants, 124-125, 130 Alcoholism British military, 504-505 personnel screening for, 510, 512-516, 518 security risks because of, 506-508 Soviet military, 503 U.S. military, 496-498, 500 American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 5-6 American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 4-5 American Physical Society, 6 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, 6 607 Antinuclear activism, 457-459, 462, 472, 476 Arab-Israeli War, 361, 488-489 Arms control studies, 4 Arms race, psychology of power in, 474-484; see also National leaders/ decision makers Atmospheric effects and responses chemically induced, 112- 114, 156, 163-164 convective cloud formation from fire plumes, 108-109, 159 environmental stresses associated with, 156 ozone layer reductions, 112-113, 156, 160-163, 320, 584 photochemical smog formation, 163-164 radioactive cloud dispersal, 169 smoke-related, 95, 110-112, 137, 146-148, 184, 584 stratospheric injection of fallout, 106, 179, 184, 195 structural modification, 143, 148, 154, 184 sulfuric acid removal, 164 uncertainties in assessments of, 137 see also Climatic impacts and responses; Nuclear winter; Tropopause; Troposphere

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608 Attitudes and perceptions adult modal beliefs, 445-448, 461, 482, 584 adult modal feelings, 448-451, 468-473 aftermath expectations, 446-448 based on The Day After and Hiroshima Nagasaki: 1945 docudramas, 452-457, 563 Canadian youth, 419-420 children's and adolescents', 295-296, 413-432, 435-443, 449, 467, 471, 584 cognitive and emotional stances, 449 European youth, 421-424 false consensus bias, 461 foreign policy, 450-451 New Zealand youth, 420-421 nuclear power plant risks, 468 powerlessness and resignation, 436, 470 researcher, clinician feelings, 428-429 salience of nuclear war issue, 452-462, 470, 472 Scandinavian youth, 418, 421, 435-443 sources of consensus in, 451-457 Soviet youth, 421-422 see also Denial; Hope B BEIR report, 225-226, 329, 331 Black rain, see Precipitation scavenging Blast effects energy distribution, 26-27, 105, 274 injuries, 264-267, 276, 321, 353, 361, 366 nuclear weapons yield and, 26-27, 38, 105 overpressure at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, 26, 29-32, 61-64, 79 range from detonation and, 61-62, 210 shock wave development, 19-27, 30-31, 265 structural damage, 19, 22-28, 31-33, 59, 77-79, 274, 384 wind generation, 19-20 see also Casualties; Fatalities; Nuclear detonations Blast scaling, see Scaling, blast Brown, Harold, 6 Burns blood and fluid requirements for, 361-362 facilities for treating, 357-358 INDEX immune system suppression from, 320-321 types and treatment of, 24, 258, 267-269 see also Casualties; Fatalities; Injuries/ number of injured C Cancer incidence breast cancer, 331 calculation of, 331-332 latency period, 330, 333 leukemia, 329-330, 333-335 malignant solid tumors, 330, 333-335 radiation exposure, 202, 225-226, 228, 329-335 toxic chemicals, 158- 159 ultraviolet-B radiation, 320 Carcinogens, 158-159; see also Toxic chemicals/substances Carnegie Corporation of New York, 6 Casualties anti-industrial attack, 17, 67-68 antipopulation attack, 17, 69 blast and fire, 228 burn, 352 calculation sensitivities, 208; see also Models/modeling; Scaling, blast counterforce attack, 208-209, 218-230 economic and social collapse, 230 fallout, 223-226, 228 Hiroshima, 211 mass management of, 251-263, 269-278; see also Triage medical personnel, 354-357 number requiring medical treatment, 16 radiation, 234, 352 relative to range from detonation, 61-62, 210, 236 rules for predicting, 60-69; see also Models/modeling; Scaling, blast superfire, 16- 17, 58 trauma, 352-353 U.S. Civil War, 257 U.S. Department of Defense estimates of, 209, 220, 229-230 World War I, 258 World War II, 308-309 see also Fatalities; Injuries/number of . . . matures Chemicals, see Toxic chemicals/substances

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INDEX Civil defense, 83, 293, 317, 382 Civil War (U.S.), mass casualty management during, 255-257, 262, 274, 277-278 Climatic impacts and responses aerosols causing, 102 black rain, 97 diurnal cycle, 573 precipitation changes, 111, 123- 125, 286, 400, 569 smoke-induced, 97-98, 141 sunlight reductions, 118, 122-123, 127, 557 temperature declines, 98, 110- 111, 118-119, 123-130, 139, 142, 152- 153, 156, 286, 557, 569, 571 see also Nuclear winter Coolidge, Calvin, 543 Cuban missile crisis, 221, 488, 540-541 D Deaths, see Casualties; Fatalities; Mortality rates Decision making, see Foreign policymaking; National leaders/decision makers Defense systems, efficacy of, 82, 208; see also Civil defense; Strategic defense; Strategic Defense Initiative Denial active, of nuclear war risk, 436, 467-468 dangers of, 468 distinction between hope and, 471 forms of, 469-471 public reaction to nuclear weapons policies, 296 response to disaster warnings, 297, 563 survival mechanism, 468 Developing countries food needs and availability postwar, 374- 377 impacts of nuclear war on, 288-289, 584 medical resources supply vs. demand, 370-374 Disaster analogies Bhopal, India, chemical gassing, 303 categorization of, 291-292, 294 earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, 292- 293, 302, 304-305, 562-563 epidemics, 233 floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes, 293, 297, 299-300, 303 609 Hyatt Hotel collapse (1981), 275 Mount St. Helens eruption, 301 Texas City fertilizer ship fire, 266, 271, 351 Three Mile Island nuclear plant accident, 302, 303, 492-494 World War II bombing raids, 307-313 see also Fires, urban Disaster Responses disaster syndrome, 304-305 physicians, 278 postdisaster behavior, 303-307 psychopathic behavior, 305 role conflict in emergency personnel, 306, 383 scapegoat-finding, 306 see also Human behavior; Psychological processes and problems Disaster warnings effects of, 301-302 responses to, 296-297 source credibility, 299-300, 383 studies of, 297-302 timing of, 298-301 Drug abuse by military personnel, 495-500, 503-508, 510, 513-515, 584 Drugs, medical production worldwide, 371-372, 392-395 supply and post-nuclear-war demand, 363-365 E Early Warning System, failure in, 494 Economic impacts critical industries, 409 EMP damage to electronic systems, 384-385 food production, 374-375 long-term health problems, 386-387 monetary systems, 385-386, 388, 401-402, 405-406 pharmaceutical industry, 392-395 recovery prospects, 387-388, 403-404 reliability of projections, 388 trading patterns, 388, 402-403 treatment of surviving capital, 403, 406 warnings of war, 382-383 see also Energy impacts Ecosystems effects of atmospheric oxidants on, 164;

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610 see also Atmospheric effects and responses effects of nuclear war-induced stresses on, 118-122, 124-125, 574 human carrying capacity of, 559 needs for modeling capabilities, 573-576 recovery prospects of, 122-123, 574, 576-577 Educators for Social Responsibility, 413, 430 Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) damage caused by, 106, 292, 384-386, 401, 405 effect on medical systems and supplies, 370, 386, 395 effect on relief operations, 290 generation of, 406 protection against, 384 Energy impacts domestic oil and gas reserves, 388, 396-400 energy-intensiveness of economic sectors, 396-397 recovery prospects, 395-400, 405 Extinction of species, 560, 574 Fallout, global agricultural effects of, 130 atmospheric distribution of, 185- 187, 223 atmospheric test-related, 340 casualties from, 223-226, 228 components of, 179 deposition pasterns, 115, 179-180, 188, 197, 226-227 doses from, 114-115, 180-190; see also Radiation doses ecosystem vulnerabilities to, 124-124 genetic effects of, 343 hotspots, 115, 186, 189 impact on humans, 198-199, 202 nuclear fuel cycle facility contribution to, 195-198, 340 from perturbed atmosphere, 184- 186, 190 rainout of, 185, 189 seasonal effects on, 182, 188 from unperturbed atmosphere, 180-183 Fallout, local calculation of, 176- 179 INDEX definition, 168 deposition patterns, 169-172, 174-178, 189 doses from, 106, 114, 168, 171-176, 189; see also Radiation doses enhancement of effects of, 178-179 generation of, 106 genetic effects of, 343 height-of-burst effects on, 221, 223 impact on humans, 199-202 levels from massive attack, 354 multiburst models for, 174-179 nuclear fuel cycle facility contribution to, 194-195 oncological effects of, 333-334 particle sizes, 169 protection against, 173-174; see also Radiation protection factors; Shelters/ sheltering rainout of, 169-170 settling velocities, 169 single-weapon model for, 170-174 uncertainties in calculation of, 114, 168, 178-179, 190, 199-200 wind effects on, 226-227, 229-230 Fatalities 1-Mt airburst, 215 anti-industrial attacks, 67 antipopulation attacks, 16 blast and fire, 58, 228 cancer, 333 casualty rules in predicting, 60-69; see also Models/modeling counterforce attack, 208-209, 227-228 fallout, 200-201, 226 Hiroshima, 51, 61-62, 65, 211, 233, 236 levels of toxic agents causing, 45, 50 limited nuclear attacks, 208 prediction of, see Models/modeling primary mechanism for, 118 radiation sickness, 224, 228 relative to ground zero, 61-65, 210, 236 in shelters, 43-44, 57-58, 94 superf~res, 59-66 weapon yield effects on estimates of, 67 World War II incendiary raids, 51, 75 see also Casualties; Mortality rates Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) crisis relocation strategy, 382

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INDEX CRP-2B scenario of massive nuclear war, 350-366, 383-384, 389-392, 396, 398, 401, 405, 561 population distributions around nuclear targets, 216 Fire gases amounts generated by superf~res, 41-43 carbon dioxide, 41-44, 46, 48 carbon monoxide, 41-43, 45, 47-48, 56, 58 effects on ecosystems, 124-125 hydrogen cyanide, 41-43 physiological effects of, 44-46, 48, 50 sulfur dioxide, 41-43, 48, 50 see also Nitrogen oxides Fires, urban characteristics of, 80-86 development and spread of, 85-86 Dresden, Germany, 34, 75, 83, 87, 94 Hamburg, Germany, 38, 44, 51-58, 75-77, 87, 94, 309 history of, 73-80 London incendiary raids, 55 modeling of, 81-85 nuclear-nonnuclear contrasted, 81-82; see also Disaster analogies range of, 73 summary of experience on, 81 Tokyo, Japan, incendiary raids, 51, 53, 75 see also Superf~res Firestorms, see Superf~res Food contamination of, 164 grain stores and crops, 123, 127- 130, 132, 194, 375-376, 558 interdependence of countries for, 288-289, 374-375 production disruptions, 131-132, 134, 164, 284-286, 374-376 sanitation and preservation of, 287 transport disruptions, 284-285 world reserves of, 284 see also Agricultural impacts Food chain, radioactive contamination of, 188-190, 287 Foreign policymaking coping with issue complexity and inadequate information, 537-539, 544-545 crisis-induced stress impacts on, 529-545 611 efficacy of devil's advocates in, 549 groupthink, 544 minimization of impediments to information processing, 546-550 nonstress factors affecting quality of, 546 organizational behavior, 545 problems arising in, 547 small-group dynamics, 542-545, 548-549 subsystems for, 536-537 see also National leaders/decision makers Forrestal, James, 531 G Genetic effects calculation of, 341 cases of, 343 from 1 million manrem, 342 future generations, 343-344 post-nuclear-war response to, 344-345 radiation doses associated with, 338-340, 343 Geneva Conventions of 1949, 254, 255 Goldberger, Marvin, 3 Great Britain instability in military personnel, 504-505 youth perceptions of nuclear war threat in, 421 Growing seasons, 118, 126, 130, 164, 286 H Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan blast overpressure and thermal energy at, 26, 29-32, 61-64, 79 cancer incidence in survivors, 329-330 casualty management by, 269, 278 fatalities in, 51, 61-62, 65, 211, 233, 236 firestorm area in, 29, 33, 63, 77-80, 211-213 genetic effects in offspring of survivors, 341, 344 LDso radiation doses, 224-225, 234, 577 personal accounts of bombing, 309-313 radiation exposure in, 235-247, 339 structural damage in, 77-79 teratogenic effects in offspring of survivors, 344 weapon yield at, 210, 309 Hope children's sources of, 436 distinction between denial and, 471

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612 grounds for, created by new technologies, 482-483 see also Attitudes and perceptions Hotline, upgrading of, 7 Human behavior adult actions regarding nuclear war threat, 451-461; see also Antinuclear activism; Sun~ivalism decision making under crisis-induced stress, 493-494, 529-548 disaster syndrome, 304-305 postdisaster, 303-307 psychology of power in national leaders, 474-484 response to disaster warnings, 296-303 Long, Frank, 6 role conflict in emergency personnel, 306, 383 see also Denial; Sociological impacts Immune system suppression after burns and trauma, 320-321 clinical experience on, 319-320 induced by stress, depression, and bereavement, 321-322 by ionizing radiation, 249, 318-319, 559 malnutrition-induced, 322-323 mechanism of, 319 similarity to AIDS, 323-324, 559, 577 by ultraviolet-B radiation, 163, 319-320 Injuries/number of injured anti-industrial attacks, 67 blast, see Blast effects casualty rules in predicting, 60-66 distribution of, from massive attack, 351 352 massive exchange, 350-354 range from detonation and, 61-62, 215 relative to number of surviving physicians, 262, 271-274 thermal, 367; see also Burns U.S. Civil War, 257 urban nuclear attacks, 272-273, 275-276, 366 Vietnam War, 261 World War I, 258 see also Casualties; Medical/physiological effects International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), 329, 331, 334, 341 INDEX International Physicians for Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), 3 J Japan, see Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 6 Johnson, Lyndon B., 543 K Kennedy, John F., 540 Kennedy, Robert, 541 L M Mass fires, see Superfires Media, see News media Medical effectiveness measures, 261 Medical facilities during conventional wars, 256-261 Medical Unit, Self-Contained, Transportable (MUST), 260-261 supply and post-nuclear-war demand, 263, 355, 357-358, 367-369, 561 Medical organizations active in nuclear war prevention, 3 Medical resources blood and blood products, 358-362, 365, 368-370 casualty ratio, 262 equipment and supplies, 275, 353, 356, 364, 368, 372-374 personnel, 271-274, 354-357, 367-369, 386 supply vs. post-nuclear-war demand, 350-374, 386, 392-395, 584 see also Drugs, medical Medical transport conventional wars, 256-261 nuclear war, 274-275, 354-366 Medical treatment conventional wars, 257-260 nuclear war, 274-275 radiation victims, 235 time constraints on, 262, 353-354 Medical/physiological effects anoxia, 45-46 carbon dioxide exposure, 44-47

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INDEX carbon monoxide exposure, 45, 47, 56, 58 heat exposure, 44-45, 57 hematopoietic syndrome, 234, 319 hypovolemia, 277 malnutrition, 132, 249-250, 287, 322-323 radiation exposure, 201-202, 224-225; see also Radiation sickness of smoke and soot, 48 starvation, 287-288, 322, 558, 572 toxic chemical exposure, 157-160 tuberculosis, 323 ultraviolets radiation increases, 163, 320 see also Blast effects; Burns; Genetic effects; Immune system suppression; Injuries/number of injured Military personnel, instability effects of crisis-induced stress, 493-494, 562 psychiatric problems, 499-501, 506, 512-515, 584 substance abuse, 495-500, 503-508, 510, 513-515, 584 see also Nuclear weapons handling; Personnel Reliability Program Models/modeling biases in, 178 cancer fatalities, 333 casualties from nuclear attacks, 16-17; see also Casualties; Scaling, blast; Scenarios/reference cases conflagration, 17, 67-68, 81-85, 208, 212-214, 270-271 cookie cutter, 17, 60, 67-68 ecological and agricultural systems, 119, 128-130, 568, 573 fallout casualties, 223-227 fallout from escalating nuclear exchange, 176-179, 189-190 fission products injected into atmosphere, 181 global climate, 144, 568-569 GLODEP2, 179-182, 184-186, 188, 197 GRANTOUR, 182, 184-186, 199 influence of casualty rules on, 60, 208 KDFOC2, 170, 189 local fallout from multiple detonations, 174-176 local fallout from single burst, 170-174 military targets, 174 613 nuclear winter, 144, 575-576 overpressure, see Scaling, blast postwar economic recovery, 388-389 radiation casualties, 248 radiative and climatic effects of smoke injection, 98 smoke-induced atmospheric perturbations, 110, 139-141, 143-153 superfire environments, 86-94 superfire fatalities, 59-66 toxic gas concentrations in superfires, 41-42 uncertainties, 114, 137, 168, 178-179, 190, 199-200, 556-557, 566-573 urban fires, 81-85 WSEG-10, 223-224 Mortality rates as a function of time after detonation, 236-240, 243 cancer victims, 330-331, 333 hospitalized casualties, 278, 261 injured in urban nuclear attacks, 273, 277 radiation-related, 224, 233-250, 278 relative to distance from ground zero, 233, 240-246, 248 treatment delays and, 270 see also Fatalities Mutagens, 157 Mutations, 343-344; see also Genetic effects N Nagasaki, see Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan Nasser, G., 541 National Academy of Sciences, 3-4 National leaders/decision makers burdens imposed on, by military forces, 485 conceptual assimilation of nuclear and conventional weapons by, 479-480 coping patterns of, 532-533, 546-548 crisis impact on managerial capacities and performance of, 487-489, 529-550, 534-535, 539-542, 584 demonstration of resolve by, 480-481 ego defense mechanisms, 533 emotional instigators of violence in, 476-477 faith in weaponry, 478-479

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614 medical support system for, 550 mental health of, 531-532 negative control of nuclear weapons by, 486 nuclear weapons management by, 485-489 perception of the enemy, 477-478 personal characteristics of, 475-476 resistance to public pressure for disarmament, 474-475 stress indicators in, 535-536 see also Foreign policymaking Nehru, J., 541 Nevada Test Site, 24 News media credibility attributed to disaster warnings by, 299-300 effects on adult feelings, beliefs, and actions regarding nuclear war, 452-457 youth attitudes toward, 437 Nitrogen oxides (NOx) ozone reduction by, 112- 113, 136, 160- 163 physiological effects of, 48 Nixon, Richard M., 546 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 254 Nuclear detonations airbursts, 18-28, 106, 385; see also Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) blast energy distribution from, 26-27, 105, 274 crater formation, 384 fireball formation and characteristics, 18-24, 28, 83-84, 106 height-of-burst implications, 19, 30, 61, 77, 82, 105, 200 incendiary effects of, 17-28, 105-106; see also Superfires on missile silos, 223 multiburst damages, 82 mushroom cloud formation, 21, 24 peak energy output from, 15, 30, 79 over rural targets, 97 shock wave development, 19-27, 30-31, 265 in space, 106 structural damage from, 19, 22-28, 31-33, 59, 77-79, 274, 384 surface burst damage, 82-83, 106, 108, INDEX 136; see also Fallout thermal energy distribution from, 27, 30, 83-85, 105 winds accompanying, 19, 22 see also Models/modeling; Scenarios/ reference cases Nuclear fuel cycle facilities adult perceptions of risk from, 468 fallout from attacks on, 195-198, 340 potential sources of fallout, 191-192, 194 radiological doses from attacks on, 115, 179, 190-193 reactor core integrity, 191-192 Three Mile Island accident, 302, 303, 492-494 Nuclear targets number of, 310 populations around, 216, 218 strategic, in U.S., 216, 218, 221-222 see also Scenarios/reference cases Nuclear terrorism, U.S.-Soviet agreement on, 7 Nuclear war characteristics of the issue of, 427-428 direct and indirect effects contrasted, 117-118 images and risk perceptions, see Attitudes and perceptions inadvertent, 530, 585; see also Nuclear weapons handling need for youth education on, 429-431, 563 population distributions after, 132- 134 prevention activities, 431-432, 436 risks to noncombatants, 288-289, 370-375, 558 scientific community's role in preventing, 1-11 socioeconomic structure after, 285 stresses induced by, 118-119 toxic environments following, 155-165 warnings of, 382-383 Nuclear weapons arsenals, 106, 161, 216, 221, 486, 520-524 command and control of, 479, 485-489; see also Nuclear weapons handling ICBMs, 176-177, 220, 221, 230, 504, 507, 520, 523 Minuteman missiles, 222, 520

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INDEX Multiple, Independently Targetable, Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), 161 negative control of, 486 radioactivity from, 167-168; see also Fallout submarine-based ballistic missiles, 221, 507, 521, 523 tactical, 115, 179, 190, 504 theater, 115, 504, 507 Nuclear weapons handling British military, 505 character of the work, 491-495 factors affecting performance, 492-495, 501-502, 584 ICBM launch crews, 491, 507 improving working conditions for, 519 instability of personnel, 490-519 managerial demands of, 485-489 personnel screening for, see also Personnel Reliability Program psychiatric problems and, 499-501, 506, 512-515, 584 security risks, 505-509, 512 Soviet military, 504 submarine patrol crews, 491-493, 501, 507-508 substance abuse and, 495-500, 503-508, 513-515, 584 U.S. military, 498-499, 501 in underground bases, 491-492 Nuclear weapons yield EMP effects relative to, 385 fatality estimates relative to, 67 mass fire generation and, 38, 94 radiation dose relative to, 182-183 thermal and blast effects relative to, 26 27, 38, 105 Nuclear winter absorption optical depth leading to, 102 103 contribution of plastics to, 98-103 duration of, 557 physical mechanism, 97, 141-142, 156 prevention of photochemical smog formation by, 164 reliability of studies of, 556-557, 566-573 smoke contribution to, 97 studies of, 97, 560-561 support for theory, 98 615 o Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) airburst casualty estimates, 61-64, 210 damage estimates, 384-385 Detroit, Michigan, nuclear attack scenario, 366-370 review of DOD casualty estimates, 220 Ozone depletion, 112-113, 156, 160-163, 320, 584 p Panofsky, Wolfgang, 3 Personnel Reliability Program decertifications by, 510, 512-517 positions under jurisdiction of, 509 qualifying standards for, 509 screening procedure, 509-510 Soviet counterpart of, 510-511 strengthening of, 515, 517-519 violations of security rules of, 512 weaknesses of, 511-515 Pharmaceutical production, see Drugs, medical Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR), 3 Planetary Society, 6 Plastics contribution to nuclear winter, 98-103 optical perturbations from combustion of, 102 production, use, and properties, 98-102 treatment with flame and smoke retardants, 102 Policymaking, see Foreign policymaking; National leaders/decision makers Pollutants, see Air pollutants; Fire gases; Smoke; Toxic chemicals/substances Populations around military-industrial targets, 216-218 around strategic nuclear targets, 216-218 Precipitation scavenging of smoke, 97, 109, 112-114, 142-143, 145-146, 158 of toxic chemicals, 113- 114 see also Climatic impacts and responses Prodefense activism, 459-460 Psychiatric problems in national leaders, 531-532 in nuclear weapons personnel, 499-501, 506, 512-515, 584

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616 postdisaster psychopathic behavior, 305 Psychological processes and problems of general public, see Attitudes and perceptions; Disaster responses; Human behavior; Stress, psychological hazard perceptions, 291-292, 296, 383; see also Attitudes and perceptions instability in military personnel, 490-519; see also Nuclear weapons handling leadership-related, see Foreign policymaking; National leaders/decision makers; Stress, crisis-induced mental health in leaders, 531-532 of nuclear arms race, see Arms race; Foreign policymaking; National leaders/ decision makers substance abuse by military personnel, 495-500, 503-508, 513-515, 584 theory of bounded rationality, 303 see also Denial; Disaster responses Psychosocial perceptions, see Attitudes and perceptions Psychosocial studies adult beliefs, feelings, and actions regarding nuclear war, 141-462 children's and adolescents' perceptions of nuclear war threat, 413-443 international, 418-422 methodological issues, 424-427, 437-439 qualitative, 422-424 questionnaires, 417-422, 435-443 systematic sampling for, 415-417 see also Attitudes and perceptions; Research and studies on nuclear war Pugwash, activities of, 5 Pyrotoxins, see Fire gases; Toxic chemicals/ substances R Rabin, I., 541 Radiation, beta, effects of, 115, 168, 179 Radiation, gamma biological repair of damage from, 199, 200, 224, 226 cancer incidence from, 202, 225-226, 228, 329-335 decay of, 168- 169 dose projections, 114- 115, 172- 174 factors influencing amounts dispersed, 168, 172 INDEX genetic effects of, 337-344 hematological effects of, 224 human sensitivity to, 224-225 immune system impairment by, 318-319 insect resistance to, 286, 559-560 prodromal effects, see Radiation sickness teratogenic effects of, 344 see also Fallout Radiation, neutron fallout estimates, 172-173 LDso relative to ground zero, 247 Radiation, ultraviolet-B cancer incidence from, 320 ecosystem impacts, 124-125, 163, 286 effect on plastics, 100 increases in, 113, 124-125, 130, 136, 156, 162-163, 573, 584 Radiation doses from attacks on nuclear power plants, 196-197 bases for, 247 bone marrow, 248 buildup of, 181 calculation of, from single bursts, 170- 172 cancer incidence and, 331-332 doubling method for calculating, 341 genetically significant, 337-340, 343 global human population, 181, 190, 196 immunosuppression-related, 319 ingestion and inhalation, 168, 179, 187- 190 internal total body dose, 189 LDso, 200, 224-225, 233-235, 239-241, 245, 247-250, 319, 559, 577, 583 leukemia-related, 330 organ, 247 peak equivalent residual, 224 sensitivity to warhead yield, 182-183 in shelters, 247; see also Radiation protection factors to survivors, 332, 335, 338-340 total cumulative external, 339-340 whole-body, from major exchange, 181, 198-199 Radiation protection factors, 173-174, 189, 200-201, 223-224, 226, 248-249 Radiation sickness medical supply needs, 362 mortality rate, 224

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INDEX prodromal symptoms, 199, 202 see also Medical/physiological effects Radionuclide releases cesium-137, 188, 287 iodine-131, 187 strontium-90, 187-188, 194, 287 Research and studies on nuclear war concerned with avoidance, 4-5, 10- 11 environmental consequences, 96-97 recommendations for, 115- 116, 123, 426-427 see also Psychosocial studies Risk perceptions, see Attitudes and perceptions Roosevelt, Franklin D., 546 S Scaling laws for dose calculations, 171-172; see also Models/modeling, conflagration Scaling, blast of 100-city reference case, 64-65 of Hiroshima data, 63, 67 sensitivity of, 17, 67-68, 208, 210-214, 227 Scandinavian youth, 418, 421, 435-443 Scenarios/reference cases 6,500-Mt exchange, 138-139, 161-162 Detroit, Michigan, 366-370 FEMA CRP-2B scenario of massive nuclear war, 350-366, 383-384, 389 392, 396, 398, 401, 405, 561 military-industrial targets, 67-68, 107, 208-209, 216 New York City, 272-278, 354 nuclear reactor attacks, 195-196 nuclear winter, 102-116 Omaha, Nebraska, 272-273, 276 OTA, 366-370 SCOPE/ENUWAR, 104-135, 168, 176, 187, 197-199, 556 strategic nuclear targets, 216, 218, 220 222 urban targets, 17-28, 51, 61, 67-68, 208, 269, 272-273 Washington, D.C., 272-273, 276 see also Models/modeling Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) Environmental Effects of Nuclear War (ENUWAR) report, 96, 104-135, 168, 176, 187, 617 197-199, 556 Segdaev, R.Z., 6 S helters/sheltering fatalities in, 43-44, 57-58, 94 in Hiroshima, Japan, 238 protection factors provided by, 173, 189, 200-201, 223-224 in Soviet Union, 382 time necessary in, 339 Smoke amount produced by superf~res, 137-139, 144-145, 570-572 composition and properties of, 107-108, 572 contribution to nuclear winter, 97, 141 distribution end residence time, 110, 142, 145-146, 148-152 effect on global fallout, 184 injection altitudes, 97, 111, 137-139 ozone destruction by, 162 particle coagulation, 109-110 particle size, 137-138 from plastics, 101-102 precipitation scavenging of, 97, 109, 112-114, 142-143, 145-146, 158, 557 solar radiation absorption by, 97, 111 113, 145-146, 148, 151, 156 uncertainties in calculations of, 568, 570-572 Sociological impacts recovery prospects, 389-392 shifts in social order and behavior, 390-392; see also Psychological processes and problems social cohesion and morale, 308 Sorensen, Theodore, 540-541 Soviet military chain of command, 504 instability in, 501-502 nuclear weapons handling in, 504, 510- 511, 522-523 substance abuse in, 503-504 Soviet Union civil defense system, 382 relations with United States, 6-7 rules of sea agreement between U.S. Navy and, 7 youth perceptions of nuclear war threat in, 421-422 Stalin, J., 541

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618 Standing Consultative Commission (SCC), 8 Stanford University, 6 Strategic defense, crisis prevention approach to, 6-8 Strategic Defense Initiative, 6, 209, 480 Stress, crisis-induced coping patterns in leaders and decision makers, 532-533, 537-539, 544-548 effects on decision making, 487-489, 529-548, 584 imposed by the military on national leaders, 485 indicators of, in national leaders, 535-536 in nuclear weapons personnel, 493-494, 562 Stress, psychological denial of, 468-471 in general public, see Attitudes and perceptions; Human behavior immunosuppression induced by, 321-322 Superfires air temperatures in, 38, 40, 43-50, 59, 81, 87-90, 94-95 atmospheric responses, 52-53, 89-90, 108-109 casualties from, 16-17, 58, 210-211; see also Models/modeling characteristics of, 17, 80-86 climate effects of, see Climatic impacts and responses; Nuclear winter ecosystems impacts of, 124-125 environments of, 28-38, 86-94, 274 fatality estimates for, 59-66; see also Models/modeling firebreak efficacy in, 53 fuel loadings contributing to, 38, 40, 98-102, 107-108 generation of, 15-16 ignition mechanisms, 82-85, 212 merging of, 37-39 physiological effects, 45-48, 56-58 range of, 16-17, 28-29, 31-32, 38, 51, 60, 64, 67-68, 86-87, 94, 107-108, 212-213 safe exposure time for humans in, 49 secondary fires contributing to, 32-33 shock wave influences on, 31-32 survival rates, 58 toxic gas generation by, 17, 38-50, 112-114; see also Synergisms INDEX uncertainties in studies of, 567-568 variables in fire damage predictions, 83; see also Models/modeling weather influences on, 29, 31, 36, 60, 83 wind generation by, 34-37, 51, 53-54, 81, 87-94, 108, 274 see also Smoke Survivalism, 459-460 Survivors health maintenance of, 405 medical personnel, 354-356 number after massive nuclear exchange, 351 outside assistance to, 391, 405 radiation doses to, 332, 335, 338-340 uninjured, 356 Synergisms environmental impacts of, 559-560 in immune system suppression, 325 radiation and war-induced stresses, 225, 249, 584 toxic chemicals and radiation, 160 toxic fire gases and temperatures, 43-50 T Thermal pulse, see Nuclear detonations Toxic chemicals/substances asbestos fibers, 160 carcinogens, 158-159 detection of, 160, 164 dioxins, 157-159 environmental effects of releases of, 113, 157-160 mutagens, 157 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 157-158 polyvinyl chlorides (PVCs), 50 Triage categories, 252, 263-264, 266-267 concept, 251-255, 262 ethical issues in, 252-254 in nuclear war, 263-264, 274 Tropopause definition, 82 effect on lofting of fire products, 91-93 Troposphere fallout injection into, 106, 179, 184-185, 195 photochemical smog formation in, 163-164

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INDEX smoke removal by, 146 structural changes in, 146 Truman, Harry, 533 U U.S. military allied nuclear role, 522 breakdown of nuclear roles of service branches, 520-522 substance abuse in, 495-499 United Nations Association of the United States, 6 United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), 329, 331, 334, 340 United States crisis relocation strategy, 382-383 defense policy, 209; see also Strategic Defense Initiative nuclear weapons policy, 219-220, 230 relations with People's Republic of China, 482 relations with Soviet Union, 6-7 rules of sea agreement between Soviet navy and, 7 youth perception of nuclear war threat in, 413-415, 422 University of California, 6 V Velikhov, E.P., 3, 6 Vietnam War, mass casualty management during, 260-261, 361 W Warnings, see Disaster warnings; Early Warning System 619 Water supplies for postattack medical uses, 369-370 radioactive contamination of, 187-188 Weapons destructive power of, 9 miniaturization of, 9 in space, studies of, 5-6 U.S. Civil War, 256 Vietnam War, 261 World War I, 259 see also Nuclear weapons Weather disruptions from smoke injections, 110-111 influences on firestorm development, 29-30; see also Climatic impacts and responses; Nuclear winter Wilson, Woodrow, 543 World Health Organization, 235 World Medical Association code of ethics for wartime physicians, 254 World War I, mass casualty management during, 252, 254, 257-259 World War II incendiary raids, 16-17, 51-59, 75-77, 83, 87-88, 94, 107 German cities burned during, 76 human response to bombing raids, 307- 309 Japanese cities burned during, 77 mass casualty management during, 259- 260; see also Casualties psychiatric discharges during, 500 y York, Herbert, 6

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