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TABLE D-2 Estimated Ranges for the True Relative Risks (RR) in “Exposed” and “Unexposed” Subjects

Rate Ratioa

Group

β4/β1

All

0.0124

0.225

1.8

1.3

“Exposed”

1.41–1.87b

(321)–(113)d

1.41–1.87c

(321)–(113)

1.43–1.72

(321)–(113)

1.43–1.64

(321)–(113)

“Unexposed”

1.09–1.45

(321)–(113)

1.09–1.45

(321)–(113)

1.10–1.34

(321)–(113)

1.11–1.27

(321)–(113)

1.14

“Exposed”

1.19–1.35

(321)–(113)

“Unexposed”

1.04–1.18

(321)–(113)

aAssume causal summary rate ratio.

bRange of RR over 30 exposure histories and three values of β4/β1.

cRange of RR over 30 exposure histories.

dExposure histories (a, b, c) at which minimum and maximum, respectively, occur [see Table D-1 for definition of exposure histories (a, b, c)].

of the countries in which epidemiologic studies were conducted, we repeated the analysis using the overall summary rate ratio of 1.14 from the U.S. studies. In this case the overall range in the estimates of the true relative risk was 1.19 to 1.35 in the “exposed” and 1.04 to 1.18 in the “unexposed.”

D-2 THE CARCINOGEN-EQUIVALENT NUMBER OF ACTIVELY SMOKED CIGARETTES INHALED DAILY BY PASSIVE SMOKERS: COMPARISONS OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC WITH DOSIMETRIC ESTIMATES

In this section we attempt to estimate the number of cigarettes, d0, that would have to be actively smoked to deliver to the lung of the smoker a dose of active carcinogen equal to the daily pulmonary dose of carcinogen (attributable to ETS) of an average adult nonsmoker with a nonsmoking spouse. Roughly speaking, d0 is the (lung) carcinogen-equivalent number of (actively smoked) cigarettes inhaled daily by an average adult nonsmoker with a nonsmoking spouse.

Under the assumptions of Method 2, we saw that knowledge of β4/β1 and of the relative exposure histories of “exposed” and “unexposed” study subjects was sufficient to estimate the true



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