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Electoral Systems and Conflict in Divided Societies

Ben Reilly

and

Andrew Reynolds

Papers on International Conflict Resolution No. 2

Committee on International Conflict Resolution

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1999



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--> Electoral Systems and Conflict in Divided Societies Ben Reilly and Andrew Reynolds Papers on International Conflict Resolution No. 2 Committee on International Conflict Resolution Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1999

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--> NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. The project that is the subject of this paper was funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York through Grant Number B 6083. Additional support for this publication was provided by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06446-5 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); this report is also available online at http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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--> Committee on International Conflict Resolution Alexander L. George (Chair), Department of Political Science, Stanford University Juergen Dedring, Graduate Center, City University of New York Francis M. Deng, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC Ronald J. Fisher, Department of Psychology, University of Saskatchewan James E. Goodby, U.S. Department of State, Washington, DC Robert H. Mnookin, School of Law, Harvard University Raymond Shonholtz, Partners for Democratic Change, San Francisco Janice G. Stein, Department of Political Science, University of Toronto Stanley J. Tambiah, Department of Anthropology, Harvard University M. Crawford Young, Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin, Madison I. William Zartman, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University Paul C. Stern, Study Director, National Research Council Daniel Druckman, Consultant, George Mason University Heather Schofield, Senior Project Assistant, National Research Council

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--> Preface This paper is one of a series being prepared for the National Research Council's Committee on International Conflict Resolution. The committee was organized in late 1995 to respond to a growing need for prevention, management, and resolution of violent conflict in the international arena, a concern about the changing nature and context of such conflict in the post-Cold War era, and a recent expansion of knowledge in the field. The committee's main goal is to advance the practice of conflict resolution by using the methods and critical attitude of science to examine the effectiveness of various techniques and concepts that have been advanced for preventing, managing, and resolving international conflicts. The committee's research agenda has been designed to supplement the work of other groups, particularly the Carnegie Corporation of New York's Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, which issued its final report in December 1997. The committee has identified a number of specific techniques and concepts of current interest to policy practitioners and has asked leading specialists on each one to carefully review and analyze available knowledge and to summarize what is known about the conditions under which each is or is not effective. These papers present the results of their work. Each paper in the series attempts to address important practical questions by testing conventional wisdom against experience, identifying critical issues, making concepts clearer, and summarizing the lessons of experience. In the committee's judgment, such analysis will help conflict resolution practitioners in governments, international organizations, non-governmental organizations, and academic centers to diagnose conflict

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--> situations and make better informed choices about whether, when, and how to intervene. The committee recognizes the great difficulties inherent in any effort to draw conclusions about the effects of interventions in historical processes. We nevertheless believe that these papers, by virtue of their thorough and critical examination of the relevant evidence, will add appreciably to practitioners' understanding. They will also advance a second goal of the committee, which is to improve the quality of future analytical efforts to understand international conflict and conflict resolution. We express our appreciation to the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its generous support of the committee's activities and to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance for support for the separate publication of this work. We thank Ben Reilly and Andrew Reynolds for their work on this paper. We also express our appreciation to the many practitioners and scholars who contributed to this effort by granting interviews, participating in a seminar to discuss an early version of the paper, or formally reviewing drafts. We also thank Heather Schofield, who has managed the logistics of this project from its inception, and James Ryan, who did the copy editing. ALEXANDER L. GEORGE, CHAIR PAUL C. STERN, STUDY DIRECTOR COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT RESOLUTION

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--> Papers on International Conflict Resolution This paper is one of a series being prepared for the National Research Council's Committee on International Conflict Resolution. When the series is completed, the papers will be published in a volume, tentatively entitled International Conflict Resolution: Techniques And Evaluation. The expected contents are listed below. Overview 1 International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War Alexander George, Stanford University, and Paul C. Stern, National Research Council 2 Evaluating Interventions in History Paul C. Stern, National Research Council, and Daniel Druckman, George Mason University Concepts from Traditional Diplomacy 3 Defining Moment: The Threat and Use of Force in American Foreign Policy Since 1989 Barry M. Blechman and Tamara Cofman Wittes, Henry L. Stimson Center (Paper No. 1) 4 Economic Sanctions and Post-Cold War Conflict Resolution: Challenges for Theory and Policy Bruce Jentleson, University of California, Davis

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--> 5 "Spoiler" Problems in Peace Processes Steven John Stedman, Stanford University (A version of this paper appeared in International Security, fall 1997, 22(2):5–53.) 6 Timing and Ripeness William Zartman, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University Nontraditional Forms in Conflict Resolution 7 OSCE Interventions in Regional Conflicts P. Terrence Hopmann, Brown University 8 Interactive Conflict Resolution: A View for Policy makers Harold Saunders, Kettering Foundation 9 Evaluating Interactive Problem-Solving Efforts Nadim Rouhana, University of Massachusetts, Boston Structural Approaches to Conflict in Divided States 10 Electoral Systems and Conflict in Divided Societies Ben Reilly, International IDEA (Stockholm) and Andrew Reynolds, University of Notre Dame (Paper No. 2) 11 Autonomy Regimes and Conflict Resolution Yash Ghai, University of Hong Kong 12 Language Policy and Conflict in Multilingual States David Laitin, University of Chicago 13 Truth, justice, and Reconciliation in National Transitions Priscilla Hayner, Project on Comparative Truth-Seeking, Brooklyn, N.Y. Conclusions 14 Lessons from Recent History

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Electoral Systems and Conflict in Divided Societies

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