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TCRP H-12 Final Report . 5.0 REVIEW OF CURRENT MODELS 5.l Introduction This chapter reviews a selection of operational integrated urban models. It describes the structure and capabilities of these models, and compares them to those described in Chapter 4 for the ideal model. The reader should be cautious in interpreting the review- strictly as an evaluation of today's operational models. A more appropriate interpretation, and the one intended by the investigators, is that the review constitutes the taking of an inventory of what is available currently. The objective is to arrive at a description of the current general state of practice by examining in detail several representative models rather than to identify a "best" or "recommended" model. Six models are reviewed. Section 5.2 describes how- these six were selected from a larger list of candidates. Section 5.3 outlines the framework that is used for the review and its derivation. Section 5.4 provides a general description of the six models. Section :.5 reviews the six, and Section 5.6 comments upon and summarizes the review. 5.2 Selection of Models for Review It is fair to say that a significant number of 'integrated' or semi-integrated urban models exists , ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Wegener ~1 995] identified twenty active urban modeling centers (i.e., models) around the world, of which approximately twelve integrated urban models were sufficient operational to have been used for around the world. certainly In varying degrees of completeness arid usability. actual research anchor policy analysis in particular urban areas. South`~-orth ti995] identifies a fimher thee models. The TCRP Research Project Statement for this work specified that three integrated urban models were to be considered: ITEUP (also often referred to as DRAM/EMPAL), MEPLAN arid TRANUS. The three models have the following features in common: they are operational. commercially-ax affable packages; each has an established history of use; and each has been applied in the United States In at least one practical setting (i.e.. in an MPO). To this group. wee elected to add another three models. These models are MUSSA, NYMTC- LUM and UrbanSim. Thev were included for two main reasons: 9:

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TCRP H-}2 Final Report each is currently operational, or sufficiently close to being operational, in a practical setting; and each contains a significant market representation (i.e., there is an explicit treatment of prices in land development). It is noteworthy that UrbanS~m is a recent developments d therefore was not included in Wegener's 1995 list. As indicated by Me Wegener and Sou~wor~ reviews, many other integrated urban models exist. Noteworthy examples include examples of microsimulation models tMackett. 199Ob; Wegener 1993, Miller, et at., 1987; Miller and Salvini, 1998; Oskamp, 1997], optimization models [Brotchie, et al., i980 Caindec and Prastacos, 1995; Dickey and Leiner, 1983; Kim 19893; land accounting type models Landis, 1994, Yen and Fncker, 1997~- and other European, Japanese and Aus~aiian models ~Anderstig and Mattson, ~ 991; Eliasson arid Mattsson. ~ 997; Gu. et al., ~ 992; Mackett, ~ 983, 1985a, 1990a;Nakamura,et al., 1983,Wegener, 1982a, 1982b, 1986;Wegener~etal.. 19913. While each of these models is of potential interest in one or more ways, it was felt that the six models chosen for detailed review are sufficient for the purposes of this study in that they are representative of the state of operational practice. 5.3 Framework There are several reviews of integrated urban models in the literature. This review is distinguished from these earlier efforts in one key respect: the review criteria are derived from the descnption of the "ideal" mode] described ire Chapter 4. In other words, the review has a somewhat normative/prescnptive orientation ("what should bed. as opposed to a descriptive basis ("what isle. Nonetheless, some recent reviews are instructive. Wegener t! 995] compared or perhaps more appropnately, classified thirteen of the twenty models that he cited. He noted that inclusion in the list Eras based upon the available information, as opposed to being a comment on the respective quality. The list included DRAM/EMPAL (ITEUP), MEPLAN, TRANUS, MUSSA and METRO SIM (a forerunner of NYMTC-LUM). The classification was made according to the following criteria: Comprehensiveness, in which a mode] was deemed to be comprehensive if it could mode! at least two of eight identified subsystems, all thirteen met this criterion. . Overall structure. Two types were identified: "unified" -- i.e., a tightly integrated structure -- or "composite," a series of independently-structured, loosely organized submodels. The structure alas seen as art important determinant of the mode! techniques used by each model, and the dynamic behavior of each. MUSSA arid METRO SIM were classified as unified, while ITEUP, MEPLAN arid TRANUS were classified as composite. - 94

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TCRP H-12 Final Report Theoretical basis. Twelve of the models had a random utility basis for simulating the behavior of the actors; beyond this one commonality, the models had a variety theoretical bases for simulating the land/development markets, some simulating market equ~libnum, and for simulating have} activity/transportation network behavior. Techniques included land-use equilibnum, network equilibrium or both; spatial-interaction location models or the use ot accessibility indicators to simulate location choice, input-output methods to represent the flows of goods, etc. Dynamics, including the treatment of time lags, and the short- and Tong-term processes ot Barbara development. Data requirements. Calibration versus validation (i.e., application). Operationality (i.e.. transferability in addition to actually having been applied). Applicability (i.e.- the range of problems to which these models could be applied). In this review. we examine the six models from the perspective of the design issues listed in Table 4. I. In particular, we discuss how each model deals with: physical system representation, representation of decision makers, representation of processes (especially market processes). as well as the generic and implementation issues listed in Table 4.~. The model evaluation cutena identified in Table 4.2 are also used. The logic ur~derlying the selection of both the design issues arid the evaluation criteria has been discussed in detail in Chapter 4. Throughout the review, a primary concern is dete~mirung how the current state of practice compares with the "ideal" model described in Chapter 4. 5.4 General Description of the Six Models 5.4.1 ITLUP ITLUP (Integrated Transportation and Land Use Package) was developed by Dr. Stephen H. Putman at the University of Pennsylvania, over the course of the last 25 years. ITLUP comprises a number of sub-models, the best known of which are DRAM (Disaggregate Residential Allocation Model) arid EMPAL (Employment Allocation Model). DRAM and EMPAL are Lowry-derivative models. The model allocates household categories (usually four income categories, though further categorizations are possible, e.g., by household structure), employment categories (usually by four types, though more detailed SIC groupings are possible) and travel patterns (public and private modes), using exogenous study-area forecasts of employment, population and Lips activity rates and 95

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TCRP H-12 Final Report , household type. Detailed documentation of the mode] is provided in Putman tI983. 1991 1994, 199S, among other sources]. Useful summary- descriptions are provided in Wegener tI995], Sou~wo~ tipsy], Webster et at. tI 988] an] Putrna~ tI996], from which this discussion is drawn. Notable features of ITEUP are: IThUP (more specifically, DRAM and EMPAL) are the most ~dely-used spatial allocation models in the United States today. A recent count indicates over a dozen active US applications tPutrnan. 19974. although over 40 calibrations have been performed across the United States arid elsewhere. IThUP contains a multinomial logit modal split submodel, as well as a trip assignment submode] that Carl support various (auto) assignment aigonthms. Trip generation and distr~buhon are developed within DRAM, simultaneously with household location. However, DRAM and EMPAL often are used separately, and have been linked in actual applications with other commercial Gavel demand forecasting models (including EMME/2- ~ITS T ~- ~T ~T T~_T ~P ~. ' ~ ~. ~ ~ An' ~ 1-KAN PLAN and U ~ And. ~ Bus, conserve teeming or travel demand and Ravel costs can be provided through exogenous links. The model has been applied to a wide range of situations. ranging from lon~-term A- , ~ ~ ,,. transportation network planning, to the evaluation of different urban forms and. notably, environmental impacts and region-wide vehicle emissions. How-ever, although in theory there appear to be no constraints to including transit travel 'costs' in the accessibility definitions, most applications appear to have emphasized road network improvements. Compared with other models, DRAM/EMPAL is considered to have relatively parsimonious data requirements. Southworth ~1995] notes that an important advantage of DRAM/EMPAL is their basis in generally available data (i.e.. related to population, households and employment). However, he also notes that this reflects a weakness of the approach; namely, that the model does not account for land market clearing processes (or, it follows. other market clearing processes). A recent development is METROPlLUS. which is aimed at improving linkages with GIS data bases and In revising He mode] structure towards greater system modularity. The mode] operates within an ArcView shell, which supports a linkages with an ArcView GIS data base. The shell also is W~ndows-compatible, which in turn provides linkages to off-the-shelf data packages such as Excel [Putman, 1997]. 5.4.2 MEPLAN . The MEPLAN package is proprietary software developed by Marcial Echenique and Piers Ltd In the United Kingdom. The MEPLAN package draws on 25 years of practical integrated urban - 96

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TCRP H-17 Final Report modeling experience. win work on He package itself beginning in 1 985. It has been applied to over 95 regions throughout the world, including Sacramento. Califorrna. Detailed documentation Carl be found in Echenique tI985] Echenique, et al. ti969, 19904. Echenique and Williams reshow. Hunt tI994], Hunt and Simmonds tI993] and Hurlt and Echenique ~19933. , ., MEPLAN is based on a generals highly flexible framework. This framework has an aggregate perspective: space is divided into zones quantities of households and economic activities (called 'factors' or 'sectors') are allocated to these zones, and flows of interactions among these factors in different zones give rise to flows of transport demand. The heart of the framework is a spatially disaggre~ated input-output matnx. or social accounting matnx, extended to include vanable technical coefficients. labor sectors arid space sectors. All economic activities, including households are treated as producing and consuming activities. with consumption patterns expressed using technical coefficients. Spatial disaggregation is accomplished by having the further production arising to satisfy consumption allocated among the spatial zones according to discrete choice models reacting to the prices for such production. The resulting interactions among zones gives rise to the demand for travel. Temporal change is simulated by having the model consider sequential points in time. Space (both land and floorspace) is "non-transportable" and must be consumed in the zone where it is produced. The supply of space in each zone is fixed at a given point in time. The technical coefficients for the consumption of space are elastic with respect to price and prices for space that ensure demand equates with supply in each zone are established endogenously as part of an equilibrium solution established for each point in time considered. Prices for the outputs of other sectors are established endogenously running back along the 'chains' of production-consumption. Travel demands arising for a given point in time are allocated to a multimodal network using logit functions representing mode and route choice, taking account of congestion. Transport disutilities feed back into He next time period representing lags in response to transport conditions. Exogenous demand (analogous to the 'Lowry' basic sector) provides the initial impetus for economic activity. Changes ~ study-v~de exogenous demand and in the quantity of space in each zone from one time period to the next fuel economic change. with these charges allocated among zones. 5.~.3 MUSSA MUSSA ("Modelo de Uso de Suelo de SAntiago") is an operational model of urban land and floor space markets. developed by Dr. F~cisco Martinez for Santiago, Chile. It is ''filly connected" with a very good four-stage model (known as ESTRAUS); together, the combined models are referred to as 5-L,UT~ and provide equilibrated forecasts of larld-use and travel demand for Santiago. The model has been used to examine venous transportation and/or land-use policies. usually involving transit as a central component of the policy. Documentation of the model is provided in Martinez [1992a' 1992b' 1997a 1997b] and Martinez and Donoso [1995]. Notable features of MUSSA include: - 97

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TCRP H-19 Final Report It is consistently based throughout on an extremely rigorous and compelling application of microeconomic theory. It is an equilibnum mode} of building stock supply aIld demand. Demand for building stock (whether by households or firms) is based on Weir w~naness to pay (WP). Buyers attempt to max~nize their surplus (WP - price actually paint, while sellers attempt to maximize price paid. Building stock is supplied by developers so as to maximize profits, given the apparent demand. Building stock prices are endogenously determined within the equilibration process. The model solves for a static equilibnum in the forecast year, by adjusting the amount of building stock supplied. a supply response, and consumers. expectation levels (expected utility to be obtained from their housing), a demand response, until demand and supply balance. The model end state is path-independent and does not require solution for intermediate year results. although such intermediate results can also be generated. . . . The model uses traffic analysis zones as its spatial unit of analysis (264 zones in the Santiago application), thereby pros icing a very fine level of spatial disaggregation relative to many other current models. In addition, extensions to more micro-levels of spatial analysis are being investigated (Martinez, 1997b). The model is highly disaaaregated relative to most other currently operational models. The Santiago implementation has 65 household types and could be run using ~ large weighted sample of observed households (and their associated detailed attributes) in essentially a "static micros~mulation" format. Extensions are being Investigated to incorporate zone-level environmental impact (emissions) calculations into the modeling, system tO'Ryan, et at., ~ 9973. As wall the NYMTC-~UMfMETROPOLIS family of models, MUSSA provides operational evidence of the usefulness of integrated urbar~ models in the analysis of both the impacts of major transit projects on land-use and the impacts of land development on transit. S.4.4 NYMTC-LUM NYMTC-LUM is currently under development by Dr. Alex Anas on behalf of New York Metropolitan Transit Co~runission (MTC). It is a simplified version of METROPOLIS. also developed by Dr. Anas. It is the most recent of a series of land-use and housing market models developed by Dr. Anas over the last two decades tAnas, ~ 982, 1992, ~ 994, ~ 995; Anas and Arnott, 1993, 1994, Anas and Brown, 1985, Anas et al.. 1987, Anas and Duann, 1986~. Notable features of NYMTC-LUM include: - 98

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TCRP H-12 Final Report It is consistently based throughout on macroeconomic theory. It simultaneously models the interactions between residential housing commercial floor space, labor, and non-work travel markets, with explicit representations of Remarry and supply processes in each case. Housing pnces. floor space rents and workers' wages are all endogenously determined within the mode} and are used to mediate between demand and supply processes within their relevant markets. The mode! solves for a static equilibrium In Me forecast year, by finding the prices and wages which cause Remarry and supply in the markets being modeled to balance. The mode} end state is path-~ndependent arid does not require solution for intermediate year results. The mode! uses traffic analysis zones as its spatial urut of analysis (up to 3,500 zones in the blew York application), thereby providing a very fine level of spatial disaggregation relative to many other current models. In its current state of Implementation, the mode} does not contain much disa~gregation of its main "behavioral units" (households, employment. buildings). In its current implementation, the mode} is not integrated with a travel demand model. Rather, it is "connected" to We existing MTC travel demand mode! in terms of receiving as inputs mode} utilities from the MTC mode choice model. This is similar to the case for IThUP and UrbanSim. From the perspective of this work. perhaps He single most important point to note about this mode! is that it is being developed for a transit property. explicitly for transit-related planning. Features of the mode! which facilitate this type of application include: use of small traffic zones as the spatial unit of analysis; access to detailed transit network representations and mode choice models in the MTC travel demand model; and the macroeconomic structure of the model which permits a range of economic evaluation measures to be computed (property values. consumers. surplus, producers surplus, etc.~. Earlier models have similarly been applied to the es aluation of the impacts of He proposed South Corridor rapid transit line In Chicago fusing the C ATLAS model, see Anas and Dunn tI9863) and the assessing the impacts of a range of road and transit service changes in the New- York (using NYSIM, see Anas [199541. 5.4.5 TRANUS . The TRANUS package is proprietary software developed by Modelistica in Venezuela, a private film rural by Tomas de la Balsa arid his family. It draws on much the same modeling experience as 99

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TCRP H-12 Final Report MEPLAN win We elements of the package fast coming together in the early 1 980s. The focus with TR~NUS would appear to be a somewhat more restricted set of functional forms and modeling options within the framework allowing a more "set" approach to mode] development reiat~ve to MEPLAN. It has been applied to a number of regions In Central and South America and In Europe. TRANUS models of the Sacramento and Baltimore Regions and the State of Oregon have been completed or are ureter development. For demled documentation. see de la Barra tI989, 1989], de ia Barra et at. ~! 984] and Modelistica tI9983. . 5.4.6 UrbanSim UrbanS~m is an operational model of dreary bared and floor space markets. developed by Dr. Paul Waddell for the States of Hawaii, Oregon, and Utah. A prototype has been completed in Eugene- Springfield~ Oregon and a histoncal validation process is beginrung there. It is "fills` connected" with a traditional four-stage mode] in Eugene-Spr~ngfield, Oregon. and is being integrated with a new activity--based travel model in Honolulu, Hawaii. Although the Meal development of the model was undertaken by Dr. Waddell through the consulting firm of Urban Analytics, further development and support of the mode] is being done at the University of Washington. The model and software has been placed in the public domain by the Oregon Department of Transportation and the University of Washington will support its release and dissemination through the Internet as part of an NCHRP project 8-32~3) "Integration of Land Use Planning and Multimodal Transportation Planning." Documentation of the mode] can be fourth in Waddell ~1998a, 199Sb 1998c] and Waddeli et al ti9983. Access to documentation and to the model will be available from ww~-.urbansim.org on He Intemet as of August, ~ 998. Notable features of UrbanSim include: It is consistently based throughout on an extremely rigorous and compelling application of microeconomic theory, following a similar framework to that used in MUSSA, but diffenug in significant aspects such as the assumption of equilibnum. It is a disequilibrium model of building stock supply and demand with annual time increments. Demand for building stock (whether by households or firms) is based on their willingness to pay (WP), or bid (observed prices paid rather than hypothetical WP that cannot be observed). Buyers attempt to maximize their surplus (WP - price actually paid) while sellers attempt to maximize price paid. Building stock is supplied by developers so as to maximize profits, given the apparent demand. Building stock prices are determined ~ ithin the market clearing process, which occurs at the submarket level of the traffic analysis zone and property- type. The mode] operates as a dynamic disequilibrium in each year, with the supply component developing and redeveloping individual land parcels on the basis of expected profits - 100 ,

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TCRP H-17 Final Report (expected revenue less costs). Expected revenue is based on prices lagged b! one ~-ear' and new coin choices are not assumed to be available for occupancy until the subsequent year. Demand is based on lagged prices and current supply d prices are adjusted based on the balance of demand and supply in each submarket in each year. is path-dependent and requires solution for each intermediate year. The model end state The demand side of Me mode] uses traffic analysis zones as its spatial unit of analysis (271 zones In the Eugene-Spnngfield application 76 ~ in Honolulu. and over 1.000 in Salt Lake City), thereby providing a very fine level of spatial disaggre~ation relative to many other current models. In We supply-side, the model uses the individual land parcel as the unit of land development and redevelopment, making this the only mode} to date to use the parcel- leve] as the fundamental unit of analysis. The mode] is highly disag~are~ated relative to most other currently operational models. The Eugene-Springfield implementation has ~ ~ ~ household types and could be run using a large weighted sample of observed households (and their associated detailed attributes) in essentially a "static micros~mulation" format. The mode! is based on the analysis of policy scenarios that include comprehensive land-use plans. growth management regulations such as urban growth boundaries. minimum and maximum densities, mixed use development, redevelopment environmental restrictions on development, and development pricing policies as well as the range of transportation infrastructure and pricing policies handled by the linked travel demand models. 5.5 Review The review is organized In terms of a series of tables. These are introduced in sequence below. References for statements made throughout this section are generally not given. These sources, however. have been cited in Section 5.4 under the general descriptions of each of the models. Table 5. ~ presents some very general facts about the operational history and availability- of each of Me six packages. As Indicated In the table. operational experience varies dramatically across the packages, from being currently Implemented for the first time ~YMTC-LUM) to over 25 years of experience in multiple urban areas (IThUP, MEPLAN/TRANUS). The packages run on a variety of platforms although most are Ilow- typically PC-based. Most are supported by (at best) a small consulting group, which typically depends heavily on the mode} developer. One exception is MEPLAN, which is supported by a fair-sized consulting firm. - Cot

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TCRP H-12 Final Report Table 5.2 summarizes how Me six models deal with the primary physical entities within urban areas: time' Carol. and developed space (buildings). Five of the six models are static equilibrium models, which either jump directly to the end-year equilibrium state or are moved from one equilibnurn point to the next in Epically five-year steps. The exception is UrbanSirn, which operates on a one-year time step arid which does not assume equilibnum. All six models are zone-based, with the three older models (IThUP, MEPLAN TRANUS) typically being implemented using a very coarse zone system. ME' SSA and N7YMTC-LUM operate at the ~aff~c zone level. Urbar~S~m uses two levels of spahai detail: the traffic zone level for travel demand calculations, and the individual parcel for land supply and demand calculations. The developers of MUSSA are also experimenting web more m~cro-scale analysis capabilities, but these are far from operational at time of writing. Five of the six models explicit represent developed space In one way or another. The exception is IThUP. In which households consume land directly, win no explicit representation of the built environment being maintained. Table 5.3 discusses the representation of the transportation system within the six packages. All six interact win a multimodal ~ar~sportation network model. MEPLAN~ and TRANTUS have buiTt-in network modeling capabilities; MUSSA, NYMTC-LUM and UrbanSim are "connected" to stand- alone four-stage modeling systems, and IThUP can function either way.36 In addition at time of writing, UrbanSim is being integrated with art activit,~-based travel mode} in Honolulu. In all cases, the information passed Tom the network mode! to the land-use component takes the form of venous "accessibility measures" typically Serif ed from random utility theory. That is, the accessibility teens typically are so-called "possum" or "inclusive value" terms taken Tom the posit . . . ., ,. . ~. . ,~, ~ models used within the travel Lemma modeling system. In general. the ability of the integrated mode] to analyze transportation policy impacts (on tras e! or land-use) depends on the quality and capabilities of the four-stage travel Remarry mode} being used, rather than on He integrated modeling system per se. All six models explicitly include trar~sit although He large-area zones typically used in the older models (ITEUP, MEPL`AN~, TRANUS) clearly limit the sensitivity of these models to transit system impacts; also, ITEUP's internal travel demand mode] does not include a transit ~ t ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~_% ~ _ ~ ~ . ~ assignment capabllltv. M~FLAN and 1 lU\N U b are me only systems which explicitly model goods movements. bothers' modes (such as HOV/carpoolina and paratr~sit) typically are not modeled although' again' this is prLmanly a Unction of the travel demand model being used' rather than the integrated model per se. |6 MUSSA and NYMTC-LUM me somewhat inte~ediate ~ this respect. MUSSA is explicitly designed to connect with ESTRAUS, the Santiago travel demand model. The combined GLUT package can be considered an integrated system. NYMTC-LUM is a somewhat simplified version of METROPOLIS, which is intended to be a fully integrated modeling system. - 10,

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TCRP H-12 Final Report All models reviewed are much less able to address regulatory policies, especially with respect to transportation. TOM and ITS impacts are generally not well addressed. These limitations primarily reflect well known weaknesses in the four-stage travel demand modeling system, upon which these integrated models heavily rely, rather than any fundamental problem with land-use models per se. Thus, as operational travel demand models continue to improve (through the efforts of TMIP and other research and development initiatives), integrated models can be expected to directly benefit as well. Not surprisingly, all models reviewed can only respond to educationJmarketing policies aimed at changing people's values/attitudes through exogenous changes in the mode] parameter values, where these parameters are intended to capture decision-makers' tastes and preferences. All models are calibrated against observed, historical data. Given this, at best, they capture the behavioral preferences manifested in the historical data. To use these models in a forecasting mode, we must assume that these behavioral preferences wall hold in the future as well. While the increasing availability of time-series data (both pane! and repeated cross-sections) is beginning to provide us with the opportunity to study the evolution of tastes and preferences over time,~7 such research is a long way from providing us with operational models of parameter formation arid evolution. Finally, Tables S.8a and S.8b summarize much of the previous discussion in terms of the operational characteristics of the models. Some key points to note from this table include: Historically, integrated models have been quite aggregate spatially. The current mend among newer models is towards a finer spatial scale, typically the traffic zone level. UrbanSim is the most disaggregated of the models reviewed, modeling land development at the parcel level arid travel demand at the traffic zone level. Most models are based on strong equilibrium assumptions. UrbanSim is a noteworthy exception to this rule. . . Most models are still temporally very aggregate, using, at most five-year time steps. Again, UrbanSim is the exception to this rule, in which a one-year time step is used. Data requirements and implementation effort obviously vary, depending on mode} complexity. Any integrated urban model however, requires significant investment in time arid money to implement. Significant, on-going technical support is required to operate these models. |7 For a good overview of the use of panel data in travel demand analysis see Golob, Kitamura and Long [1997~. - 1~)2

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TCRP H-19 Final Report 5.6 Summary Table 5.9 attempts to summarize the findings of this review, by comparing the general state of practice (as defined by this review) with the ideal mode] described in Chapter 4. In this table, the attributes of the ideal model. first presented In Table 4.7, are reproduced in small type, followed by a summary of current practice in normally sized type. In this way one can begin to assess how' current operational practice compares with what we are positing as the ideal or ultimate model. towards which we should presumably be striving. In assessing the contents ofthis table, as well as its predecessors. one should recognize that wee have tried as best as possible to characterize the attributes and performances of the six models as they are "typically" implemented in practice. Any specific application may, in some instances, either exceed or fall short of what has been depicted here. In addition, the reader is reminded that the objective of this review has not been to pick "winners arid losers," but rather to achieve as objective an assessment of current modeling practice as possible. Thus, this general state of practice is of much more direct interest than the strengths/weaknesses of any single model. Summanar~g even further from Table S.9. as well as from the discussion In the previous section, several key points emerge. These include the following. All models are sensitive to transit - land-use interactions to varying extents. The two major limitations In this regard have been the large zones traditionally used in these models, and the level of transit representation in the travel demand component of the modeling system. Use of traffic zones in more recently developed models. plus general improvements in travel demand modeling mesons. bode well for improved Posit sensitivity in integrated urban models. Applications of models such as MUSSA and the NYMTC-LUM family of models to the analysis of major transit alternatives provide good examples of the usefi~Iness of integrated urban models for transit planning. All currently, operational models fall short of the ideal mode! to varying degrees. Areas of significant shortfall in most models Include: 0 excessive spatial aggregation; o excessive reliance on static equilibnum assumptions (with associated assumptions of large time steps and lack of path dependencies) overly aggregate represerltations of households and firms, as well as a lack of representation of individuals as decision-making units separable from their households: o lack of endogenous demographic processes; 0 lack of endogenous auto ownership processes; and reliance on four-stage travel demand modeling methods. - 127

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TCEP H-17 Final Report Table 5.9 Summary of Current Modeling Capabilities Relative to the Ideal Mode} PHYSICAL SYSTEM Time: Dynamic evolution of the system state in one-year time steps. System sate generally not in equilibrium. Interactions between long-run and short-run processes are "properly" accounted for. Most models are static equilibrium models with large tone steps (5 years or more). One- year tune steps certainly feasible, as demonstrated by UrbanS~m. Land: The basic unit of land is the individual lot. All models are zone-based, often with very large zones. Recently developed/emerging models tend to use traffic zones. UrbanS~m uses individual parcels for modeling land- use. MUSSA experimenting with micro-level analysis capabilities. Building Stock: Building stock is explicitly represented. Each lot has a certain amount of floor space. characterized by type, price, etc. Building stock explicit in most models. Small number of building types usually used. Transportation Networks: Full, multimodal representation of the transportation system used to move both people and goods. Sufficient spatial and temporal detail to properly model flows. network performance, emissions, etc. Ideally, a dynamic. twenty-four hour network model to be used. All models involve use of a multimodal network. Spatial detail often could be improved. Static, temporally aggregate representation of flows. Goods movement only represented in MEPLAN and TRANUS. Services: Sufficient representation of other services for the purpose of modeling land development decisions. Non-transportation services generally not explicitly represented in the models. - 128

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TCR~ H-12 Final Report . Table S.9 St~n~mary of Current Modeling Capabilities Relative to the Ideal Model, cont'd DECISION MAKERS Persons & Households: Both persons and households are explicitly maintained (with appropriate "mappings" between the two entities) in sufficient detail tO model the various processes of interest. All models are household-based, with very little explicit representation of individuals are separate decision makers. Households are grouped into relatively homogeneous categories, often using a relatively small number of categories. MUSSA and UrbanSun provide examples of a high level of household disaggregation. in the limit approaching a totally disaggregated "microsimulation" approach. Firms: Explicitly represented. Firms at least as important as households in the overall system: they occupy land / floor space; they employ workers; and they buy / sell goods and services from-/ tO themselves and households. Firms are modeled in sufficient detail to capture adequately their behavior within these various roles. Oider models typically mode} employment directly, rather than fimns. More recently developed/emerging models model firms explicitly, usually using a small number of firm types. Public Authorities: Represented within the model tO the extent they generate purely endo~enous effects (employer of workers; demander/supplier of services; etc.~. Will remain largely represented by exogenous inputs to the model. Public authorities are almost entirely exogenous the models. The only exceptions are MEPLAN and TRANUS, which include "Government" as an explicit sector in their regional I/O models. L I - 129

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TCRP 1:~-19 Final Report Table 5.9 Summary of Current Modeled Capabilities Relative to the Ideal Model, cont'd PROCESSES Markets: Land development residential housing. commercial floor space and labor all occur within economic markets which possess demand and supply components and price signals which mediate between demand and supply. These economic markets must be explicitly modeled if their behavior over time is to be captured properly. Most models have explicit supply-demand market interaction models for land development and building stock allocation. Some mode! the job market explicitly; some use work trip distribution models to link workers with jobs. Some link housing demand and job allocation processes so closely that the two processes are essentially treated as one. Strong static equilibrium assumptions are generally imposed to balance demand and supply in each time step (UrbanSim is the one non- equilibriurn based model considered using a one-year time step). Demographics: Demographic processes should be modeled endogenously so as to ensure that the distribution of population attributes (personal and household) are representative at reach point of time being modeled and are sufficiently detailed to support the behavioral decision models being used. No mode! currently includes a significant demographic component. Households typically categorized by the, often with only a few household types used. Totals by household type typically supplied by exogenous inputs. Regional Economics: Components of urban production/consumption processes which are endo~enous tO urban areas should be modeled endogenously. The model should also be sensitive tO macro exogenous factors such as interest rates, national migration policies. erc. MEPLAN and TRANUS are built around a regional input/output (~/O) model. MUSSA takes output totals from a regional I/O model. Otherwise, regional economic data are all exogenously generated. Activity/Travel: The travel demand component of the integrated model should be activity-based and sufficiently disa~regated so as to properly capture trip-makers' responses to a full range of transportation policies. including ITS and TDM. All models use variations on conventional four-stage modeling systems, and so are susceptible to all the usual criticisms of these models [Stopher, 1993; Deakin and Harvey, 1993, Miller and Hassounah. 19933. UrbanSim is being integrated with an activity-based travel mode] in Honolulu. Automobile Holdings: Household auto holdings (number of vehicles, by type) should be endogenously determined ~ ithin the model. All models essentially ignore auto holdings. At best, the household categorization scheme may - 1,0 -

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TC8P H-12 Final Report - Of the ~nodels reviewed. UrbanS~m clearly comes closest to the ideal mode] specification with respect to most of these points, including: spatial disa~regation (use of parcels to mode] land development), temporal aggregation (use of one-year time steps) dynamics (disequilibnum model), detailed disaggregations of households and firms (an a~bute shared by MUSSA), =d use of activi~-based travel models (on-going In the Honolulu application). At the same time, current models indivi(lually and collectively display many strengths and generally provide a solid basis for further evolutionary improvements. Strengths include: generally strong microeconomic formulations of land and housing/floorspace market processes; coherent frameworks for dealing with transportation - Arouse interactions; multimodal transportation network analysis capabilities; and experience with developing and using large-scale integrated models. Despite the scope for significant evolutionary development among existing models, a "new generation" of integrated models drill need to be developed in order to fully achieve the ideal model. While newer models such as MUSSA and UrbanSim point the way to more disaggregate andlor more dynamic models. much research and development must be undertaken in order to filly achieve the idea] model. This will include development of and experimentation with mode! structures which are explicitly designed to operate in a more disaggregate, dynamic non-equilibrium framework. These observations provide the starting point for the development of an integrated short- and lon~-run research and development program for integrated urban models. which will be discussed in detail in the next chapter. I,]

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ACRE H-12 Final Report - 1~2