Harnessing Science and Technology for America's Economic Future

National and Regional Priorities

National Forum on Science and Technology Goals

Office of Special Projects Policy Division

National Research Council

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Harnessing Science and Technology for America's Economic Future National and Regional Priorities National Forum on Science and Technology Goals Office of Special Projects Policy Division National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: This volume was produced as part of a project approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the expert committee were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by the NRC and the Report Review Committee. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Under the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a working mandate that calls on it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of NAS. The National Academy of Engineering (NAE) was established in 1964, under the charter of NAS, as a parallel organization of distinguished engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of members, sharing with NAS its responsibilities for advising the federal government. NAE also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of NAE. The Institute of Medicine (IOM) was established in 1970 by NAS to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to NAS in its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of IOM. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Financial Support: The development of this report was supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Kellogg Endowment Fund of the National Research Council. The Carnegie Corporation does not take responsibility for any statements or views expressed. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations that provided support for this project. Internet Access: This report is available on the World Wide Web at http://www.nap.edu. Additional copies are for sale from: National Academy Press , Box 285, 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418. You may order by phone at 1-800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in Washington metropolitan area) or by visiting the National Academy Press web site, www.nap.edu. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 99-63564 International Standard Book Number 0-309-06538-0 Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. This document may be reproduced solely for educational purposes without the written permission of the National Academy of Sciences. Printed in the United States of America

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Policy Division Office of Special Projects Committee On Harnessing Science and Technology for America's Economic Future Dick Thornburgh (Co-chair), Counsel, Kirkpatrick & Lockhart LLP, Washington. D.C. William J. Spencer (Co-chair), Chairman, SEMATECH, Austin, Texas Dennis W. Archer, Mayor, City of Detroit Richard C. Atkinson, President, University of California System, Oakland Dorothy Baunach, Deputy Director, Cleveland Tomorrow Charles M. Geschke, President, Adobe Systems, San Jose, California Mary L. Good, Managing Member, Venture Capital, Little Rock, Arkansas Phillip A. Griffiths, Director, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, New Jersey Harold Shapiro, President, Princeton University John F. Shoch, General Partner, Asset Management Associates, Palo Alto, California H. Guyford Stever, President Emeritus, Carnegie-Mellon University, Gaithersburg, Maryland Principal Project Staff Deborah Stine, Director, Office of Special Projects Thomas Arrison, Study Director Carrie Langner, Research Assistant (until August 1998)

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT This report has been reviewed by persons chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purposes of this independent review are to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Elizabeth Baldwin, Optical Society of America; Christopher Coburn, Battelle Memorial Institute; Paul E. Gray, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Dean Kamen, DEKA Research and Development Corp.; Robert C. Lanphier III, AGMED Inc.; John S. Mayo, Bell Laboratories, Lucent Technologies, retired; and Morris Tanenbaum, AT&T, retired.

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CONTENTS Part I: Committee Report     Executive Summary   3 1   Introduction   5 2   Science, Technology, and Economic Growth   9 3   The Private-sector Environment for Innovation   17 4   Government Roles and Priorities   27 5   The University Role in Research   33 6   Education and Human Capital   39 7   Conclusions and Recommendations   45 Bibliography   49

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Part II: Speeches, Commissioned Papers, and Presentations from the Forum Event, February 2-3, 1998         Keynote Address Jeff Bingaman   55     Keynote Address George Brown   61     Technological Advance and Economic Growth Richard R. Nelson   67     Sustaining American Innovation: Where Will Technology Come From? Richard S. Rosenbloom   73     The Global Environment of U.S. Science and Technology Policies David C. Mowery   83     The U.S. Environment for Venture Capital and Technology-Based Start-Ups Charles Geschke   113     The U.S. Environment for Venture Capital and Technology-Based Start-Ups John Shoch   119     The Education Challenge Wm. A. Wulf   125     Meeting the Education Challenge Bruce M. Alberts   131     The Northeast Ohio Experience Dorothy Baunach   139 Appendixes     A   Forum Agenda   147 B   Forum Roster   151 C   Steering Committee Member Biographical Sketches   163