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6 MS 2000 UPDATE A short status report on the Mathematical Sciences in the Year 2000 project, including a timetable for upcoming activities, is followed by some interesting information on human resources, curriculum, and support resources in the mathe- matical sciences, information that my be helpful to chairs in managing and securing department resources. MS 2000 UPDATE James A. Voytak, National Research Council 59

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MS 2000 UPDATE MS 2000 UPDATE James A. Voytak National Research Council My presentation is divided into three parts. First, I will give a review of the nature of the MS 2000 project. Then, I will preview the first report, which will be published soon. Finally, I will allow time for discussion to get your reaction to the information presented. Also, we would like to have your comments pertaining to the real concerns in higher education with respect to the mathematical sciences. MS 2000 is a three-phase project. There is a description phase, a discussion phase, and a prescription phase. The description phase involves a national assessment of needs, resources, and opportunities in the mathematical sciences. In addition to assessing the human resources involved in the mathematical sciences, we are examining the undergraduate and graduate curricula in these sciences. Additionally, there will be a report on the resources that support the mathematical sciences: computing equipment, secretarial staff, library holdings, and so forth. The discussion phase is designed to foster a national dialogue on issues that have an impact on mathematical sciences education. Meetings such as this and meetings of professional organizations concerned with the mathematical sciences provide opportunities to stimulate this dialogue. The prescription phase will culminate in the publication of a report in 1990. The report will put forth an agenda for the renewal of college and university mathematical sciences education along with an implementation plan for those responsible for implementing the recommended changes. Within the next 30 to 45 days we will publish our first report A Challenge of Numbers: People in the Mathematical Sciences. It will be distributed to every mathematical sciences department in the country. Additional copies will be available for funding agencies, foundations, and the mathematical sciences community in general. In addition, there will be an executive summary of the report. Department chairs will receive extra copies of the summary, which may be passed along to higher administrators. Additional copies of the summary will be available for legislators on both the federal and state levels. The report is a compilation of much of the data that currently exist on manpower, the workplace, salaries, and the scope of the educational process. Analysis of the data gives rise to two contradictory situations. The first is that there is an increasing need in the workplace for people with knowledge of collegiate mathematics. On the other hand, demographic changes and socioeconomic trends indicate that fewer students will study mathematics or pursue mathematics-based careers. The increased need for a labor force that is more skilled in mathematics is evident from the following data summaries: Between 1986 and the year 2000, 21 million new jobs will be added to the U.S. economy, and more than 50 percent of these jobs will require collegiate study. Mathematics-based occupations are projected to grow at approximately twice the rate of the total labor force. The total number of workers with college educations needed between 1985 and 2000, from retirements and new jobs, is more than 12 million. If current trends continue, that number is approximately the total number of new graduates between 1985 and 2000 and does not allow for mismatches between training and job requirements. 61

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CHAFING THE MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF TO 1990S The National Science Foundation projects a shortage of approximately one-half million scientists and engineers by the year 2000. The following summaries give information concerning the demographic changes: . Native white men, 47 percent of the 1985 labor force, will constitute only 15 percent of the new workers between 1985 and the year 2000. White women receive 40 percent of the bachelor's degrees in mathematics but only 17 percent of the doctorates. Blacks and Hispanics, relatively few of whom now study mathematics, will increase from 22 percent of the college age population in 1985 to 27 percent in 2000 and 30 percent in 2010, while the total popu- lation in this age group will decline by 18 percent between 1985 and 2000. In general, attrition from the mathematics and statistics "pipeline," although not uniform, is approxi- mately 50 percent each year from ninth grade through the doctoral degree. Another issue of concern is a projected shortage of mathematical sciences faculty. There is concern about Ph.D. production and our ability to replace retiring faculty. Also critical is the fact that faculty size has not grown in proportion with enrollments. The following data summaries and projections attest the validity of these issues: . . During the period from 1970 to 1985, when enrollments in mathematical sciences courses grew by 60 percent, the number of full-time faculty increased by only 18 percent. The faculty et research universities decreased by 14 percent. To compensate, the part-time faculty more than tripled during this same period. Current degree production is 15,000 bachelor's, 3,000 master's, and 800 doctorates each year approximately the levels of the mid 1960s. - One-fourth of the bachelor's, one-third of the master's, and three-fourths of the doctoral degree holders in mathematical sciences work in educational institutions. The percentage of bachelor's degree recipients who received doctorates seven years later is 4 percent for mathematics as opposed to 15 percent for physical sciences. By 1995, the current level of U.S. doctoral production will not be sufficient to replace the expected number of retirements at four-year colleges and universities. In universities, the number of mathematical sciences faculty has decreased from approximately 7,000 to approximately 6,000. At four-year colleges, there has been a slight increase in faculty size, while at two-year schools it has been fairly constant. This shortfall has been compensated for with part-time faculty and graduate students. Finally, faculty salaries in general have decreased over the last 15 or 20 years. However, in some cases, the salaries of statisticians have increased. I have listed some of the problems, issues, and concerns uncovered in our work on MS 2000. The reports will contain a very detailed presentation of the data, the resultant conclusions, and strategies for addressing the situation. 62