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OCR for page 183
Part III
technology and Mends in
amens E~l~me~
OCR for page 184
OCR for page 185
Women's Employment and
Technological Change:
A Historical Perspective
CLAUDIA GOLDIN
The unpact of technological change on female employment is
an issue in two parts: that relating to all workers and that just
to women. Technological change, in concert with the demand for
output, ~ the driving force for all employment in the long run,
and determines total employment, the share of employment in each
sector of the economy, and the share of output received by labor.
Female workers, however, have characteristics that distinguish
them from their male counterparts and that cause them to be
differentially affected by technological change.
Among the distinctive characteristics of the female labor force
are the lower participation rates of women as compared with those
of men. Because of this difference the supply of women to the
labor market is more responsive to changes in earnings and oc-
cupational opportunities. Related to this point is that women,
on average, have less labor market experience than men, and
their lower degree of seniority might make them more vulnerable
to rapid technological change. It is also the case, however, that
women have less training specific to a particular technology and
might be less at risk of losing income from changes in the produc-
tion process. For various reasons women work in certain sectors
185
.
OCR for page 186
186
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
and occupations more than in others. To the extent that certain
sectors, industries, or occupations are "female intensive, techni-
cal changes that increase employment in these areas relative to
others will have positive employment effects for women.
The precise employment impact of technological change, either
on an individual sector or on the national economy, is a rather
complicated affair. There are no a priori reasons to believe that
technological change will reduce employment in any particular
sector; its precise role is empirical in nature and is explored below.
In addition, long-run and short-run effects may differ. In the long
run, technological change alters the relative size of different sectors
and the female intensity of the labor force in these sectors. We can
assume, in the long run, that the economy adjusts to the various
shocks imposed on it by technological change, returning eventually
to the natural rate of unemployment. But over the short run there
are displacement ejects, involving retraining and geographical
mobility. Because the focus here is on historical changes over an
extensive period of time, only the long-run effects are considered
in detail.
The conclusions of this research are many. Over the long
run, technological advances, proxied by a measure called total fac-
tor productivity, have been positively associated with the female
intensity of a sector; that is, female-intensive sectors have had
greater advances in technology. But sectors having the greatest
advances in technology did not necessarily experience the largest
expansion in employment. Technological changes associated with
a greater division of labor, both in the early part of the nineteenth
century in manufacturing and in clerical work a half century later,
fostered the employment of relatively unskilled workers, especially
women. Technological changes embodied in individuals, particu-
larly advances in education, have provided the greatest impetus to
the employment of women in the more recent period, most often
in sectors undergoing general technological change.
Without knowing the precise reasons for the expansion and
evolution of the female labor force in general over the last two
centuries it is difficult to ascribe a portion of it to technological
change. But it is clear that advances in manufacturing in the
nineteenth century increased the relative productivity of females
to males (and children to adults) by substituting machinery and
inanimate power for human strength. Such technological change
frequently led to the substitution of capital and unskilled labor
OCR for page 187
CLAUDIA GOLDIN
187
for skilled (artisanal) labor, a factor substitution that is rather
different from that observed later in the twentieth century.
It is equally difficult to ascribe a portion of the changes in
the sectoral distribution of labor in general over the last two cen-
turies to technological change biased in favor of particular sectors.
But it is clear that the relative decline in agriculture throughout
the period and the rise of the tertiary (service) sector in the first
decades of this century were instrumental in chin ging employment
opportunities for women. Not all women's employment changed in
the same direction in response to these movements. Black women,
who have always been disproportionately employed in agriculture
and domestic service, experienced decreases in employment with
sectoral shifts that occurred early in this century, but these de-
clines did not necessarily entail decreased well-being. In the most
recent period, black women's employment, along with employ-
ment of white women, has been greatly affected by educational
advances.
This paper explores various aspects of technological change
and women's employment in the United States from 1800 to the
present. ~ begin with a discussion of conceptual issues regarding
technological change and then consider the evidence on female em-
ployment over the last two centuries. Four aspects of the topic are
then detailed: (~) the correlation over time and in cross-section
between technological change and the proportion of a sector or an
industry's labor force that is female; (2) the role of educational
change in altering the employment of women; (3) changes in the or-
ganization of work; and (4) the relative wages of females to males,
a ratio measuring what is commonly termed the "gender gap."
The focus is entirely on changes in technology outside the home,
thus omitting changes in household production and contraceptive
technology.
One way of integrating the topics in this paper is to partition
changes in the proportion of the total labor force that is composed
of women, F/L, into that portion due to changes within sectors
and that part due to the changing distribution of the labor force
across sectors. Thus,
d(F/L) = Ei~d(F`/Li)~(Li/L) + Ei(Fi/Li~d(Li/L), (1)
where F ~ the female labor force (F = EFi), ~ = the total labor
force (L _ EI,i), and i denotes sector or industry i. The change
OCR for page 188
188
A HIS T OR I CA L PERSPE C TI VE
in the proportion of the labor force that is female is divided into
two sources, and each can be studied in terms of the impact tech-
nological change has on it. The first is the impact of technological
change on changes in the female intensity of a sector or an industry
(Fi/L`) times the relative importance of that sector or industry
in tote] employment. The second is the impact of technological
change on sectoral shares (Li/~) times the female intensity of that
sector or industry. Each of these sources is discussed below.)
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT:
A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
To clarify the economist's conceptualization of technological
change (see Mansfield, 1969; Rosenberg, 1972; Stoneman, 1983),
let me offer this brief description. Technology is knowledge, and
technological change is an increase in knowledge measured as an
increase in output for a given quantity of inputs or, equivalently, a
decrease in inputs required to produce a given amount of output.
Technological change is identified with technological advance; all
agents, in firms, sectors, and the economy as a whole, can reject
any technological change that decreases outputs or increases the
costs of production. One generally thinks of technological change
as altering the demand for a particular factor, such as labor; it
can also after the set of prices and wages in the economy. The
employment ejects of technological change are complicated by
the impacts such price changes have on the demands for input
and output. Even a labor-saving technological change can result
in an increase in the demand for labor if the quantity of output
demanded increases sufficiently because of a lower price or a higher
quality of output. Further, a technological change that is neutral
in its effects on the various inputs can alter the economy's demand
for labor if it tends to increase demand for outputs produced by
relatively less labor-intensive sectors (or less intensive in the use
of a particular type of labor women, blacks, skilled, unskilled).
Production occurs when one combines particular inputs in
some manner. Denoting the output as Q and the inputs as K
~ One can add another source, the increase in the female labor force
participation rate, by scaling each source. One can scale, for example, the
female intensity of each sector by expressing it as an index in relationship
to the female intensity of the economy as a whole. This index is used in the
empirical work below.
OCR for page 189
CLAUDIA GOLDIN
189
(capital) and ~ (labor), Q = f(K,~) is a production function.
The theoretical framework economists use to study technological
change can be condensed by considering a particular production
function known as Cobb-Douglas. This production function is
a geometrically weighted average of the inputs multiplied by a
constant term, T:
Q= TK"L(~-~.
(2)
In the case shown, the exponents of the two inputs, K and A, sum
to one, which ensures the characteristic of constant returns to scale
(a proportional increase in the inputs will increase the output pro-
portionally). The constant term, T. indicates the degree to which
the same input levels lead to greater output. Thus, the change in
T is the measure of technical change, when the outputs and the
inputs are measured properly. T is known as total factor produc-
tivity, and changes in T are known as total factor productivity
(technological) change. Various types of technological change are
absorbed in the constant term T.
Technological change can be disembodied or embodied in a
particular factor. Technological change can be disembodied in
the sense that it does not require the inputs to change in any
noticeable manner. One can think.of a disembodied technologi-
cal change as some increase in general knowledge that allows an
increase in output for the same quantity of physical inputs. Em-
bodied technological change is more easily conceptualized than is
disembodied. When technological change is embodied in a piece
of capital equipment we usually think of the new input as hav-
ing a particular vintage, with later ones being the most efficient.
When technological change is embodied in labor, we generally
think of labor as being more skilled, more educated, healthier,
and so on. We can measure inputs in physical terms, as in hours
of labor or persons, or we can measure inputs in efficiency units,
as in an education-weighted index of person-hours. When one is
able to measure inputs in these efficiency units, one can more
easily distinguish between technological change that is embodied
and disembodied. This procedure is required for understanding
precisely the sources of technological change and the impacts on
women workers.
In the Cob~Douglas production function, if either K or ~ is
multiplied by some amount A, we would not be able to discern
OCR for page 190
190
. .
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
empirically its impact on output (Q) from a change in the con-
stant term T. Thus the Cob~Douglas form does not distinguish
between disembodied change that augments K from that which
augments L. Furthermore, if the inputs are measured in physical
terms, rather than in their efficiency units, and if their efficiency
units expand (because of technological change that is embodied in
labor or capital) while the physical units stay constant, we would
not be able to distinguish the impact on Q from a disembodied
technological change.
In the analysis that follows, ~ explore the impact of technical
change on the employment of women across various sectors of
the economy and within the manufacturing sector from 1890 to
the present. The measure of technical change used is the rate
of change in total factor productivity. Recall that total factor
productivity indicates the degree to which more output is produced
for a given level of inputs. Assume that the production technology
can be represented by a Cobb-Douglas production function, given
in Equation 2. When Equation 2 is expressed in rate-of-change
form, where an asterisk (*) over a variable indicates its time
derivative, the rate of change in total factor productivity is given
by
* * ~ *
T = Q—cork—(1—a)L.
(3)
In other words, the rate of change in total factor productivity
(read, in technology) is given by the rate of change in the output
minus a weighted average of the rates of change of the inputs. The
definition of technological change summarized in this manner-
that it is measured by how much output increases above and
beyond increases in the inputs is very intuitive.
..
The measurement of the inputs and the outputs pose certain
difficulties. The outputs and the inputs ought to be measured in
physical units rather than in value terms. The procedure is ordi-
narily not possible, and one generally weights outputs by prices.
Thus cars become the value of cars or value added in the auto-
mobile sector. The inputs themselves are normally measured in
conventional or physical terms (for example, hours of labor) rather
than in efficiency units. Thus part of total factor productivity will
be attributable to the increased efficiency of the factors (for exam-
ple, from increased education, skills, or health), and disembodied
and embodied technological change are not distinguished. The
OCR for page 191
CLAUDIA GOLDIN
191
rates of change of the inputs are weighted by the exponents, and
to get estimates of the exponents one must appeal to economic the-
ory. Under conditions of equilibrium in the factor (input) markets
and competition, the exponents will be the shares of the factors
in national income. These data are easily located for even Tong
periods of time.
Standard measures of total factor productivity exist for vari-
ous sectors and industries in the extensive work of Kendrick (1961,
1973, 19833. One aspect of technological change that is necessarily
hidden in the use of this methodology is factor bias. To explore
issues of biased technological change requires a more flexible func-
tional form than Cobb-Douglas, and some estimates of factor bias
using the transiog production function are discussed below.
TRENDS IN FEMALE EMPLOYMENT: 1800 TO 1980
It is instructive to review the historical record regarding the
labor market involvement of women in the United States before
examining the impact of technological change. Data on the oc-
cupations of women were first collected in 1860, but the printed
tabulations were aggregated at the state level and provide little
detail by age and other characteristics. Marital status was not
requested by the U.S. Census of Population until 1880. Readily
available labor force data dictate that the period under study be-
gins with 1890. The period before 1890, particularly that from
1832 to 1880, is explored with materials from the manufacturing
censuses, which necessarily include only a portion of the labor
force.
Although substantial change in the conventionally measured
female labor force has only recently surfaced, it has been rooted
in a longer history of economic transition. Increases in educa-
tion during the first three decades of this century and the related
increase in the tertiary sector, particularly clerical occupations,
were instrumental in the post-World War II increase in partici-
pation rates of women. The data on manufacturing labor force
participation rates indicate the importance of early factory devel-
opment in the employment of young women, particularly in the
New England and Middle Atlantic regions. These points are more
fully developed below.
Labor force data for the aggregate female population together
with data by race, marital status, and nativity are given in Ta-
OCR for page 192
192
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
ble 1. The overall trend for the aggregate from 1890 to 1980 is
upward, but most of the movement comes from increases in the
participation rate of married women, particularly after 1950. The
increase is most apparent for white married women. Before turning
to a more detailed exploration of the data for white women, those
for black women must be given more careful attention.
The labor force participation of black women across all marital
statuses and ages (with the exception of single young women) has
always been higher than that for white women. Several factors
account for these differences (see Goldin, 1977, for a review and
an exploration of the role of slavery). The lower family incomes of
black Americans throughout the period are responsible for much
of the difference that appears in Table 1, as are the rural, southern
location of the black labor force in general and the crops produced
in the South, especially cotton.
The geographical location of black women, their greater par-
ticipation rate early on, and their occupational structure make the
analysis of the effects of technological change on their employment
different from that for white women. In 1910, for example, fully
95 percent of all employed black women were in just two occupa-
tional groupings agriculture and domestic and personal service;
the comparable figures for white women were 43 percent for na-
tive born and 27 percent for native born of foreign parentage. In
1940 77 percent of black working women were found in these two
occupational groupings; in 1980 the figure was under 30 percent.
Despite dissimilarities between the black and white female labor
forces, various changes in the economy, such as increases in edu-
cation and the rise of the clerical sector, have had strong impacts
on both.
The participation rate of young single women across the entire
United States rose until around 1920, when it reached a plateau at
about the 0.40 level. Participation rates for this group varied sig-
nificantly by geographical location. The daughters of native-born
white parents in urban areas in 1890, for example, experienced a
participation rate of 0.43, almost twice the aggregate level for that
group. These data suggest that the labor force participation rate
for the entire population of young single women converged by 1920
.
OCR for page 193
193
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OCR for page 212
212
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
nineteenth century the employment of young women in the manu-
facturing regions of America greatly expanded both in industries
that were mechanized, such as textiles, and in those that were not,
such as boots and shoes, paper, and clothing (Goldin and Sokoloff,
1982; Sokolo~, 1984~. In the mechanized industries, part of the
increased scale of firms and the increased employment of women
was due to technological change involving new and improved types
of capital equipment. But even in these industries, and certainly
in the nonmechanized ones, much of the increased employment of
women wan attributable to an increase in the division of labor and
thus to changes in the organization of work in nascent factories.
Changes external to the firm, such as improved transportation of
goods, better-integrated labor markets, and more efficient capi-
tal markets, enabled firms to increase their scale of operations,
and thus benefit from the increased division of labor and achieve
greater efficiency.
Within manufacturing, there have been wide differences in the
organization of work for female and male employees. In 1890, for
example, 47 percent of all female manufacturing operatives were
paid by the piece, but only 13 percent of the males were. Females
were therefore 3.5 times as likely to be employed on piece rates
than were males. Furthermore, piece-rate payment almost always
prevailed when males and females occupied the same position in
the same firm. Examples from the textile industry are instructive.
In only one out of the six predominantly male occupations in
cotton textiles was payment generally made by the piece, but
among four, in which both men and women were found, only one
was paid by time. Also, mates, but not females, were frequently
employed in teams and by the method of inside contracting, by
which independent contractors organized labor within a firm.
Goldin (1986a) explores the role of monitoring and supervisory
costs in the adoption of different methods of work organization for
male and female manufacturing employees. Firm-leve} data on
supervisory costs and the numbers of male and female workers
in piece and time rate positions suggest that differences in the
costs of supervision influenced the form of work organization. In
factories, male workers were more often paid time-based wages
rather than piece rates and employed on teams because their time
on the job was generally longer than that of females and thus they
required less supervision. The ability of manufacturing enterprises
both to use a technology with an intricate division of labor and to
OCR for page 213
CLAUDIA GOLDIN
213
monitor the output of workers therefore fostered the employment
of females.
The existence of monitoring and supervisory costs can also
explain the transformation of occupations in the clerical sector
that were "feminized" rapidly from 1900 to 1920. It has frequently
been cIaimec} that this feminization was the result of technological
changes, such as the mechanization of the office. But was the
feminization of the office a function of the reduced level of skill
required with the division of office work into tasks or was it a
function of a reduced level of supervision needed to elicit some
level of output?
In the early history of the modern office various tasks were
paid by the piece. Typewriters in the Graton and Knight Manu-
facturing Company, for example, were equipped with cyclometers;
"240 depressions of the typewriter keys or space bar twereJ equiva-
lent to one point . . . 600 points twereJ considered base production
and each point produced in excess twas] allowed for at the rate
of one and one-half cents a point" (Coyle, 1928:23-24~. But piece
rates did not prevail in this sector, and their decline was a tribute
to the ability of employers to pretest employees whose training
in commercial and high school courses was completed before job
entry.
Monitoring in the office became even simpler and cheaper
than in the factory. Employers divided workers into homogeneous
groups and paid each a set day rate. Standardization enabled em-
ployers to screen workers prior to employment. Thus, it appears
that women began to be employed in the clerical sector when its
jobs could be more finely divided, as had occurred a full century
before in manufacturing, and its output more cheaply monitored.
(See RotelIa, 1981, for an analysis of clerical employment that
stresses human capital aspects of the mechanization and feminiza-
tion of the office.)
RELATIVE EARNINGS OF FEMALES TO MALES, 1 8 1 5 TO 1 98 2
The degree to which technological change is biased within
sectors or industries and the degree to which even neutral techno-
logical change occurs in particular sectors or industries alters the
relative earnings of inputs, such as capital and labor or mate and
female labor. Such impacts can be ignored when only one sector or
one industry is at issue, but not when the entire economy is being
OCR for page 214
214
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
considered. Changes in female earnings alter female employment
because their labor supply function is elastic. How have the earn-
ings of females changed relative to those of males over the course of
American history, and what role has been played by technological
change?
Table 6 and Figure 3 give the ratio of female to male earnings
for the manufacturing sector from 1820 to 1970 and for all sectors
from 1890 to 1982. The relative wage of females to males was
fairly low in the northeastern states prior to industrialization but
rose quickly wherever manufacturing activity spread (Goldin and
Sokoloff, 1982, 1984~. Around 1815 the ratio of female to male
wages in agriculture and domestic activities was 0.288 and rose to
about 0.303 to 0.371 among manufacturing establishments at the
inception of industrialization in the United States in 1820. By 1832
the average ratio in manufacturing was about 0.44, and it contin-
ued to rise to 0.50 in the northeastern states by 1850. Nationwide
the ratio rose slowly to about the year 1885, when it reached its
1970 value of approximately 0.56. Early industrialization, there-
fore, increased the relative wage of females to males by almost 50
percent, and in the briefest of periods, a mere two decades, the
gender gap in manufacturing and domestic employment narrowed
by 15 percentage points.
The ratio of female to male full-time earnings for the entire
population increased from 0.463 to 0.603 over the period 1890 to
1970, using the series constructed from earnings in six sectors. The
increase over time is somewhat greater when earnings are adjusted
for hours of work among full-time employees, from 0.498 to 0.657.
The gender gap has remained relatively constant over the period
since 1950, with the exception of an initial decline in the ratio
and a rise beginning in about 1980. The recent rise appears to
be substantial in magnitude, and if the explanations in Goldin
(1986b) and Smith and Ward (1984) are correct it will continue
for some time.
Goldin (1986b) and Smith and Ward (1984) present data on
the life cycle labor force experience of the working population of
women, which indicates that working women's labor market expe-
rience has not increased substantially, if at all, during the period
from 1950 to the present. The increase in the labor force partici-
pation rate of women was substantial enough that new labor force
entrants pulled down the average labor market experience accu-
mulated by those already employed. Because wages are computed
OCR for page 215
CLAUDIA GOLDIN
.70
a,
.60
a'
O .50
Is
IL
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tar
215
/ ~0
~ _- -
~ '~ ~
:-l
//
· Agriculture
Manulactunng, New England
~ Manufacturing, Middle Adanbc
D Manufactunng, United States
~ Weighted average of six sectors, see Table 6
O Current Population Survey,
Cl Current Population Survey, weekly
~ ~ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1800 25 50 75 1900
Year
25 50 75
FIGURE 3 The gender gap in historical perspective: the manufacturing
sector and the entire United States, 1815 to 1982. Sources: see Table 6 and
O'Neill (1985~.
Only for those in the labor force, an increase in the relatively inex-
perienced will prevent the average earnings of women from rising
relative to those of men, all other things being equal. This scenario
is coming to a close, however. As more and more women have en-
tered the labor force, new entrants are a smaller percentage of the
working population of women, and the lesser experience of these
new entrants has a far smaller effect. Thus the experience of the
working population of women has begun to increase, and with it
the relative earnings of women. The same explanation holds for
the educational attainment of the working population of women.
Working women in each cohort have always been among the more
educated. Therefore, as more and more women have entered the
ranks of the employed, the average education of working women
in each cohort has declined. This process, too, has come to an
end, and the educational attainment of the working population of
women is now increasing faster than that of men.
What accounted for the decrease in the gender gap over the
past century? Various studies have shown that earnings within oc-
cupational groupings have increased for females relative to those
OCR for page 216
216
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTI VE
TABLE 6 Wage Ratios for Males and Females in Manufacturing Employment,
1815 to 1970, and Across All Occupations, 1890 to 1982
Agriculture
1815
Manufaacturing
1820-
1832a
1850a
1885
1890
0.29
0.37-0.30
0.44-0.43
0.46-0.50
0.559
0.539
1899
1904
1909
1914
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
Full Time
0.535
0.536
0.536
0.535
0.536
0.535
0.536
Full Time
Actual Weekly Hourly
0.536
0.535
0.537
0.534
0.536
0.536
0.536
0.568 0.592
0.559 0.645
0.617 0.653
0.612 0.677
0.607 0.672
0.593 0.664
0.592 0.657
0.585 0.662
0.597 0.652
0.573 0.645
0.575 0.637
0.578 0.635
0.612 0.621
0.653 0.618
0.661 0.656
0.688 0.704
0.653 0.700
Manufacturing
All Occupations Constructed
(median earnings) from
Six Sectors
Full Time Total
Adjusted
Actual for Hours
1890 0.463
1930 0.556
1939 0.539 0.513 0.581
1950 0.537
1951 0.532
1952 0.558
1953 0.512
1954 0.497
1955 0.580 0.526 0.639 0.689
1956 0.583 0.515 0.639 0.690
1957 0.554 0.496 0.633 0.680
1958 0.570 0.477 0.630 0.677
1959 0.580 0.613 0.664
OCR for page 217
CLAUDIA GOLDIN
TABLE 6 (continued)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
217
Manufacturing
Constructed
from
Six Sectors
All Occupations
(median earnings)
Full Time Total
0.559
0.534
0.557
0.544
0.547
0.532
0.524
0.563
0.549
0.544
0.540
Adjusted
Actual for Hours
0.608 0.663
0.594 0.647
0.595 0.652
0.596 0.654
0.596 0.659
0.600 0.666
0.580 0.646
0.578 0.639
0.582 0.644
0.605 0.669
0.594 0.655
0.595 0.653
0.579 0.636
0.566 0.627
0.572 0.627
0.588 0.633
0.602 0.666
0.589 0.648
0.600 0.658
0.596 0.656
0.602 0.646
0.592 0.646
0.617 0.672
0.603
NOTE: Except where noted these ratios are based on mean earnings of full-time
year-round employees.
aThe range is for New England and the Middle Atlantic.
SOURCES: This series has been compiled by the author from a variety of sources.
See Goldin (1986c) for details. Data for All Occupations category from O'Neill
(1985:Table 1).
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218
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTI VE
for males, particularly in the clerical and professional sectors.
Furthermore, the skill differential across all occupations narrowed
considerably after 1940 (Keat, 1960~. Thus, relative earnings for
females to males have increased within occupations, and this fac-
tor has been of overwhelming importance in accounting for the
increase in the earnings ratio over time. It appears that the oc-
cupational distribution mattered far less than earnings within oc-
cupations in determining the overall earnings ratio of females to
mates (Goldin, 1986c; Polachek, 1984~. This finding is particularly
noteworthy, since it is generally presumed that the occupational
distribution is the primary determinant of the gap between male
and female earnings.
The degree to which the occupational distribution matters
in determining the aggregate ratio of female to mate earnings
involves constructing two hypothetical cases. In one, all women
have the occupational distribution of men, but their earnings for
each occupation remain the same. In the other, counterfactual
world, all men have the occupational distribution of the women
but have the earnings for each occupation that they ordinarily
have. There are then three (or more) measures of the percentage
of the earnings gap that is explained by occupations; one minus
this measure gives the difference in pay within occupations. The
three measures include the two from the hypothetical cases and a
third which averages the first two.
This technique has been used by Polachek (1984) and Neiman
and Hartmann (1981~. One problem with it is that the answer de-
pends on how many occupations are used. Polachek uses 195
occupations and finds that somewhat more than 10 percent of
the earnings gap is explained by occupational differences; Treiman
and Hartmann use 222 occupations and find that somewhere be-
tween 11 and 19 percent of the gap is explainecl. Neither of these
measures seems particularly large. But when the number of occu-
pations rises to 479, more is explained. If the first of the counter-
factual worlds is used (and this seems to be the one that makes
the most sense in this context), then 19 percent of the pay gap
is explained; the second counterfactual world leads to 41 percent
being explained.~i Even 19 percent seems rather low. Further-
more, it is not clear whether it would be useful to increase the
ii Note that these numbers diner from those cited in early printings of
Treiman and Hartmann (1981:Table 9), which were in error.
OCR for page 219
CLAUDIA GOLDIN
219
number of occupations in the analysis beyond 222. The issue of
the optimal or correct number of occupations to use is still very
much unexplored.~2
Technological change narrowed the gender gap during the pe-
riod of early industrialization, when the use of new forms of capital
equipment and work organization raised the relative productivity
of females and the young. The increase in the manufacturing sec-
tor, which was relatively female intensive, also served to raise the
overall ratio of female to male earnings. But changes in the earn-
ings ratio after the first half of the nineteenth century are more
complicated. Employment effects of technical change combined
with differing demand, income elasticities expanded certain sec-
tors and contracted others, and the increase in education raised
the relative earnings of females within occupational groups.
The large increase in female labor force participation over
the last 30 years has meant that recent labor market entrants have
had substantially less job training than have previous participants.
Entrants have, until recently, also had less education than the
average female population. Therefore, the average wages of the
working population of women as a whole have been depressed by
the wages of the new entrants, even though the wages of prior
participants have been rising. In a period of rising labor force
participation, a stable ratio of female to male earnings does not
necessarily indicate an absence of economic and social progress for
women.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
Technological advances have altered the employment of wom-
en in the following ways throughout American history:
1. Increases in total factor productivity across sectors from
1890 to 1980 have been positively associated with an index of the
female intensity of the labor force, but total employment of both
males and females has not necessarily been positively relater] to
technological advance.
i2 One procedure would be to assess the cross-elasticity of substitution
among occupations for individuals. Such a procedure would be similar to
that used in antitrust cases in deciding what the market is for a particular
good, and thus what the definition of a good is. As a general rule, one does
not want to disaggregate occupations so finely that occupation itself is an
exact proxy for earnings.
OCR for page 220
220
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
2. Increases in education have been positively associated with
increases in female labor force participation and may be the single
most important factor in altering the shape of participation rates
for married women during their life cycles.
3. Changes in work organization, in particular an enhanced
division of labor in manufacturing from 1820 and in the clerical
sector from abound 1900, have increased the demand for female
employees.
4. Relative earnings for females to males rose after 1820 and
continued to rise to about 1930 or 1940. The aggregate ratio was
virtually constant from 1950 to 1980, but has risen during the
past half decade. The ratio for manufacturing employment has
remained virtually constant since about 1885. Changes in tech-
nology seem to be the most likely reason for the initial advance,
ant} changes in the experience and education of the working pop-
ulation of women appear to have been responsible for much of the
recent rise.
The secular increase in female employment in America has
owed much to the relative growth of particular sectors in the econ-
omy, such as those employing clerical and professional workers,
and to the decline of others, such as agriculture. Further work
will have to perform the major task of separating the role of tech-
nological change from those of demand and income elasticities in
altering the sectoral distribution of labor.
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CLAUDIA GOLDIN
221
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A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
force participation
