Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum

Committee on Solar and Space Physics

Space Studies Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Research

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1998



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Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum Committee on Solar and Space Physics Space Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Research Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998

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Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committees responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by Contract NASW 96013 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Cover: Solar x-ray images of the Sun's atmosphere from the Yohkoh mission of ISAS, Japan. Obtained between 1991 (bottom) and 1995 (top) at regular intervals, they provide a dramatic view of how the corona changes during the waning portion of the solar cycle. The Sun's atmosphere, heated to millions of degrees, is hot enough to emit x rays, while its much cooler surface (at about 6,000 °C) is not. As a result, an x-ray image of the Sun will display a bright glow for the corona and a black disk for the surface. The images in this figure also show that as the solar activity cycle progresses from maximum to minimum, the Sun's magnetic field changes from a complex structure to a simpler configuration with fewer fields. Image credit: “The Changing Sun,” Lockheed Martin Palo Alto Research Laboratory, G.L. Slater and G.A. Linford. Copies of this report are available from Space Studies Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum COMMITTEE ON SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS GEORGE L. SISCOE, Boston University, Chair JANET G. LUHMANN, * University of California, Berkeley, former Chair SPIRO K. ANTIOCHOS, * Naval Research Laboratory. CHARLES W. CARLSON, University of California, Berkeley ROBERT L. CAROVILLANO, Boston College TAMAS I. GOMBOSI, University of Michigan RAYMOND A. GREENWALD, Applied Physics Laboratory JUDITH T. KARPEN, Naval Research Laboratory ROBERT P. LIN, * University of California, Berkeley GLENN M. MASON, University of Maryland MARGARET A. SHEA, Air Force Phillips Laboratory HARLAN E. SPENCE, * Boston University KEITH T. STRONG, Lockheed Palo Alto Research Center MICHELLE F. THOMSEN, * Los Alamos National Laboratory RICHARD A. WOLF, Rice University ARTHUR A. CHARO, Senior Program Officer CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Senior Program Assistant * Term ended in 1997.

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Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum SPACE STUDIES BOARD CLAUDE R. CANIZARES, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University JAMES P. BAGIAN, * Environmental Protection Agency DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado LAWRENCE BOGORAD, Harvard University DONALD E. BROWNLEE, University of Washington JOHN J. DONEGAN, * John Donegan Associates, Inc. GERARD W. ELVERUM, JR., TRW Space and Technology Group ANTHONY W. ENGLAND, University of Michigan MARILYN L. FOGEL, Carnegie Institution of Washington MARTIN E. GLICKSMAN, * Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute RONALD GREELEY, Arizona State University BILL GREEN, former member, U.S. House of Representatives ANDREW H. KNOLL, Harvard University JANET G. LUHMANN, * University of California, Berkeley ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, CIESIN BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire KENNETH H. NEALSON, * University of Wisconsin MARY JANE OSBORN, University of Connecticut Health Center SIMON OSTRACH, Case Western Reserve University MORTON B. PANISH, AT&T Bell Laboratories (retired) CARLÉ M. PIETERS, Brown University THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology MARCIA J. RIEKE, * University of Arizona PEDRO L. RUSTAN, JR., U.S. Air Force (retired) JOHN A. SIMPSON, Enrico Fermi Institute GEORGE L. SISCOE, Boston University EDWARD M. STOLPER, California Institute of Technology RAYMOND VISKANTA, Purdue University ROBERT E. WILLIAMS, Space Telescope Science Institute JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Director (as of February 17, 1998) MARC S. ALLEN, Director (through December 12, 1997) * Term ended in 1997.

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Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation, Co-chair W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-chair PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University JOHN E. ESTES, University of California at Santa Barbara MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, Elf Atochem North America, Inc. JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University CAROL M. JANTZEN, Westinghouse Savannah River Company PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc. KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California at Los Angeles DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory CHANG-LIN TIEN, University of California at Berkeley NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director

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Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum COMMITTEE ON SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL RESEARCH MICHAEL C. KELLEY, Cornell University, Chair MARVIN A. GELLER, * State University of New York at Stony Brook, former Chair GUY P. BRASSEUR, * National Center for Atmospheric Research JOHN T. GOSLING, * Los Alamos National Laboratory MAURA HAGAN, National Center for Atmospheric Research MARY K. HUDSON, Dartmouth College GORDON HURFORD, * California Institute of Technology NORMAN F. NESS, Bartol Research Institute THOMAS F. TASCIONE, Sterling Software H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer DORIS BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant TENECIA A. BROWN, Administrative Assistant * Term ended in 1997.

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Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University, Co-Chair JAMES R. MAHONEY, International Technology Corporation, Co-Chair SUSAN K. AVERY, CIRES LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York at Albany MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York at Stony Brook DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research Inc. THOMAS J. LENNON, WSI Corporation MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ELBERT (JOE) W. FRIDAY, JR., Director (as of July 20, 1998) WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Director (through March 31, 1998)

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Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, University of Virginia, Chair PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington B. JOHN GARRICK, St. George, Utah THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation KAI N. LEE, Williams College JUDITH E. McDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington and Burling, Washington, D.C. HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change Program RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director (as of December 31, 1997) STEPHEN RATTIEN, Exective Director (through August 1997)

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Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum Foreword Studies of the Sun have both scientific and practical benefits. Being 100,000 times closer and 10 billion times brighter than any other star, the Sun is a unique laboratory for gaining deep understanding of stellar astrophysics. The Sun is also Earth's one and only external source of energy. Changes in its electromagnetic and particle output affect the structure of our atmosphere, as well as the radiation environment encountered by orbiting satellites. The next maximum in the roughly dozen-year cycle of solar activity is now only a few years away. This report takes a broad look at how the nation is preparing to observe and understand solar phenomena from space during this peak period. The Committee on Solar and Space Physics together with the Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Research considered the plans of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Science Foundation, Department of Defense, and Department of Energy, all of which have some relevant interest and involvement. There are specific findings and recommendations for each agency. The nation seems well positioned to make the best of the coming swell of solar activity. Many spacecraft are already in place or under development that will measure different aspects of the event. With the appropriate coordination and supporting research, this phase of the Sun's cycle could yield important results for science and society. Claude R. Canizares, Chair Space Studies Board

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Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The contents of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Loren Acton, Montana State University, Christopher F. McKee, University of California, Berkeley, P. Buford Price, University of California, Berkeley, Patricia H. Reiff, Rice University, Christopher T. Russell, University of California, Los Angeles, and John R. Winckler, Professor Emeritus of Physics, University of Minnesota. Although the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committees and the NRC.

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