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WHAT ENGINEER SHOULD UNDERSTAND ABOUT . . . TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION . . James R. Bright Thank you very much, Doctor Jordan. Doctor Seitz, it is a pleasure to be here with you. As we look at the course of history, we must be im- pressed with the fact that today the most powerful force in society is technological change. Yet, what do we know of technological change? We lump together all technological phenomena, and we lack a clear understanding of what we are talking about. As a result, it is especially difficult to understand effects and to see where we are going. As scientists and engineers' you appreciate the importance of trying to define what you are talking about, and as a first crude and primitive step, I have tried to do this with respect to the technology and the world of business. I propose to discuss seven directions of technological changes, using slides. (Exhibits 1 through 7, see page 63 through page 68.) me first direction is increased transportation capability. I don't mean to spell out all the things that have happened in this field. This is suggested on Exhibit 1. Eight months ago I pre- pared this chart, and it is rather striking that since last week I am short about 800 miles per hour of added capability (due to the A-ll). m ere is no question that with the jet engine and the missile, we have seen a quantum jump in capability. What are some of the consequences? First, geography, since 1950, has lost its significance as a barrier to war, to trade, to travel, and to intellectual exchange. There are no places in the world that are more than a half-hour away from destruction, and no places in the world which are over 10 to 12 hours away for the exchange of pleasantries or goods. Second' with this transportation capability, competition and market opportunities have grown. This new capability in trans- portation has assisted in encouraging geographical specialization. Third, less and less security lies in the hoarding of ideas. Those of you who have traveled a good Lit have seen that the world is becoming more and more of a common, one-of-a-kind, phenomenon. It is hard to tell whether you are in Tokyo, or Frank- fort, until you look at the signs on the street. 54
I think that now we have less and less chance to keep any idea or information to ourselves. Ideas will flow faster and further because time and physical limitations of distance have been removed as barriers. Associated with this technological direction is the fact that new domains have been opening up for operations. On the bottom part of the chart are three such areas. Activities in these areas start with military operation. Then follows political opera- tion, and from that commercial operations. It is rather striking that the first commercial space enterprise, Communications Satel- lite Corporation, is about to bring out its initial stock offering just seven years after Sputnik. Exhibit 2 suggests the mastery of energy as a direction of technological advance. Of course, the nuclear bomb is foremost in many minds. We have incredible power in our hands for destruc- tion. And it is a truism that our military and political insti- tutions do not know how to deal wisely with this much power. I think this inadequacy is true of all of us. Similarly, think of nuclear explosions for constructive purposes. The Panama Canal idea is before us now, and there are thousands of other uses. We have incredible power available. How will we use it? Who will decide what can be done, and what is to be done with such power? Power also can be applied with increasing minuteness and precision for any purpose. Its limitation lies almost only in the depths of our imagination. Note that portability is no longer a problem. We can have power almost anywhere we want it and on any scale. Power also can be stored for days, for hours, for years. Thus it can be applied to give a new range of freedom of operation. The underlying business theme is competition between new power sources, new fuel sources, and new power systems. It implies that many fuel systems assets are going to be devalued, and others are going to increase in value. The techniques of electrical power conversion, upon which great companies are built today, may be invalidated by accomplishments that lie just over the hill. Let's look at Exhibit 3, the growing ability to control life. First, I will talk about agricultural production: hogs, cattle, wheat, etc. It is pretty clear that crops and animals have been adapted to many special purposes, and to many formerly limit- ing environments. Each year the expansion of agricultural productivity into new areas of the world goes on. What does this take? It comes about only because there is a large, specialized producer who has a requisite technical skill, and technical equipment, and the capital to provide hybrids, irrigation, disease control, etc. 55
This implies that the small producer will be increasingly under pressure. These things spell the decline of the small opera- tion, the small farmer; and with this comes a host of social problems. They also indicate geographical specialization. They suggest very strongly declining costs for many of the essential foodstuffs of the world. Let's turn to inanimate products. Look at the shelf life of such a simple thing as bacon. Bacon has been increased from just a few months of shelf life to over three years. At the Army as Natick Laboratory a few weeks ago I ate some bacon that was over three years old, and had been held at 100 degrees Fahrenheit during that time. Now irradiated fish, potatoes, over twenty vegetables are being cleared by the Food and Drug Administration. These things indicate a change in distribution patterns in the supply of foods. Just as we have said that geography has lost its significance in transportation, seasonality and location are losing their signifi- cance in agriculture and food distribution. Another facet of this, which could apply to quite a few things in our society, is that more and more of the preparation is done by organized industry, and less and less is done by the individual. Contrast your wife and your grandmother. Who had to have the skills? Who had to know the most techniques? Isn't it pretty clear that our grandmothers had to be greater artisans than our wives? I think this is true for many things that we do in our daily lives, and for men as well as women. Turning to durable goods we see progress in materials and design that have increased physical life. The reasons for replace- ment are changing. We used to replace things because they wore out. Why do we replace them now? More and more, I think, it is a matter of technical features, with other replacements made for style and fashion. The replacement motive is less and less that of deteriora- tion. This implies a new kind of product philosophy and, perhaps, a society that will support this kind of an economic environment. Before leaving this topic, let me point out that my last chart did not mention what we are doing to human life. I was startled to see in Time magazine the transplanting of a human limb from a dead to a living person. There have been kidneys of chimpanzees transferred to humans. Also, the creation of artificial organs is growing. When we think of the growth of drugs for the control of human life, its duration, its health, of emotions, they seem to be another part of this trend. Materials progress is the next trend. Dr. Lee DuBridge has called this "molecular engineering.' Consider technical prog- ress in materials: temperature up, corrosion resistance up, strength up, and many of them up in multiples of increased per- formance. 56
This capability leads to competition between materials. Consider steel, which had the can container market to itself until 1957. Then Reynolds Metals came in with the first aluminum cans. Forty million cans, I believe, were sold within the first year. Within two years more aluminum took over almost 100 per cent of the citrus-juice market. Now aluminum has invaded the beer-can market. It looks as though aluminum has clear sailing-but has it? The "thin tin" can, and the composite foil-lined can are fighting for these markets. ~ ~ ~ ~ _ _~~ ~ ~ _ manufacturers to abandon all forms of metal cans and shift to polyethylene containers. Similarly, I suspect that the A-ll plane will give a tremendous boost to titanium, which then may become competitive with stainless steel in some cases. There is a bitter war between materials going on. think it is going to increase. With it will come lower costs and improved performance, and some badly damaged profit and loss statements. , , And now some ok companies are urging container . It is one thing to foresee and struggle between the pri- mary suppliers of materials, but what will happen to the suppliers of their production equipments? There, too, we will find casualties and victors of the materials war. The next exhibit concerns the extension of sensory capa- bility. Here we see that man's knowledge of the universe is ex- tending outward, as well as turning inwards. The growing ability to identify, to discriminate, to study, leads to knowledge. From this knowledge comes the capability for many new things. An important advance is not shown on this chart. This is growing ability to preserve the past, both visually and orally: e.g., tape recorders, audio-visual tape, Polaroid film, Xerography. And isn't it significant that Polaroid film, which represented a quantum jump over existing capabilities, resulted in a multi- million-do~ ar company? Similarly, Xerography created a major new firm around a major jump in technological capability. Underlying the advance of sensory ca~abiliLv is the ability to operate under new conditions. ditions are gone, or a barrier is mushed Lack further. . . . , ~ , Previouslv limiting con . . -J - J ~ host of commercial act~v~es then follow this advance in technical capability. Our next two exhibits identify automation. There has been so much said about automation and change, that I shall touch on it only briefly. The mechanization of a man's physical and intellectual activities is definitely growing, so that physical inactivity and intellectual disuse in many jobs is a real problem. However' I believe that automation (meaning mechanization) as the major cause of unemployment is widely exaggerated. No machine in history ever destroyed as many jobs as the missile did when it 57
replaced the bomber. It did this in about three years. Similarly, television wrecked the movie industry, and parts of the publishing industry in less than ten years. The diesel engine destroyed the steam locomotive industry in about twelve years. This job loss wasn't caused by automation, but by the displacement of one tech- nological device by another. We will have more such competition across technological lines; and I believe it will have far more severe consequences than automation. But what is the gist of automation? in most activities. (1) There is less man content and more machine content (2) There is a change of skills, (and in many cases a downgrading of skills) on one part of operators, and an upgrading elsewhere on the design-application front. (3) We find an increased responsiveness to demand. (4) A greater need for capital. Less operational flexibility is often a consequence. Let us consider the computer. Here is the most powerful technological concept since electrical power, and its economic growth is almost unbelievable. Can you imagine the reaction if one had said, in 1954, that we would be selling 4,000 computers a year? I find myself to be a poor predictor of the rate of technological progress' The computer has brought about (1) mechanization of paper work; (2) an ability to attack complex problems that are otherwise beyond the capability or economic feasibilities of man; (3) the bypassing of man by using the computer to run the machinery directly. There are perhaps 50 or 60 computer-controlled chemical plants on line now. The first few computer-controlled steel mill rolling lines are going in. In one situation after another the tentacles of the computer are spreading out to the access points on the production floor, and out into the field warehouse, the sales office, and even into the customer's plant. A whole series of human activities are thus bypassed. Automation as embodied by the computer, leads to the mechanization of paperwork and of con- trol jobs, and may ultimately create some serious problems to accompany its splendid benefits which we are now realizing. 58
Some General Consequences I would like to speak now to the general effects of con- tinued technological advances. What are the consequences for business, for society? 1. Competition will increase across geographic lines. 2. Competition will come from non-traditional sources and non-traditional fields. 3. We will see ourselves engaged in a new kind of com- petition as functions are eliminated, bypassed, or performed with new devices (as distinct from improved versions of existing de- vices). I call this technological competition. decline. 4. The competitive life span of many products will 5. The skill, the time, the resources needed to gener- ate new products will increase. 6. The cost of many materials and services will decline. For instance, energy cost may continue to decline. It seems to me that we also get more telephone communication and transporta- tion for our dollar today than ever before; or, say, more cor- rosion resistance in a dollar's worth of paint. On the other hand, the complexity of many products will increase and often offset this cost reduction. 7. Business for many firms will rise and fall partially in response to technological innovation, (in addition to economic conditions). 8. Formerly sound procedures and fine old firms will Le wiped out by technological advances. Great organizations will be built in a matter of a few years by men and institutions that are aggressive, imaginative, (and maybe lucky) in exploiting a new technology. The underlying business theme of this progress is Risk. All these things suggest we must make decisions sooner; that decisions wonts be valid as long as they used to be; that we will be wrong some of the time. Another element of the future is the role of the govern- ment in determining technological progress. Since I came from what some of you facetiously call, ''The West Point of Capitalism,' I have heard many businessmen deplore what they feel is an exces- sive government role in business affairs. Isn't it, however, true that the government is behind many of the great technological inchoations of today? Who pushed atomic energy? Who pushed the 59
space business? Who bought the first computer? Who developed the numerical control machine tool? One item after another can be traced to government support or to government demand. This is a very controversial and unhappy subject to some businessmen, and I can see some of my audience squirming. Let me restate my point: it is that the government is, for better or worse, making many major technological decisions. I am not implying these are right decisions. I am saying that the government is the source of the decision and support for the action. All of us have to live with the consequences of these actions. As businessmen, as citizens, and as scientists and engineers, we must try to play our part in helping the government to make technological decisions more wisely. Another aspect of all technological progress, one the disturbs me very much, is the decline in the hint n In ; n ~ mechanics of living. The implication running ~ _ =_ progress is that somebody else' some kind of institution, does of a;part in developing or have a feeling that this of independence, self , things for us. We have less and less contributing to the things we use. I subtly harms our feeling of security, reliance, and of self satisfaction. aspects of .~ ~ IVY ~ ~ ~ ~ L ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ `~ through technological As a final point I want to touch on morals. The power of technology is remaking society. This remaking of society has created a better world in many, many ways. But notice that it also involves the disruption and destruction of values, assets' institutions, jobs, and lives. Can the engineer and scientist con- tinue to be amoral? We had a wonderful old professor at Harvard Business School by the name of Benjamin Selekman. His special interest was to try to get businessmen to think about the moral consequences of what they were doing, and about their relationships with human beings. One day he asked me, "What are you doing about the moral automation?" I said, "Nothing. It is not my field. My job is to show what mechanization can do for the factory." "You mean you are completely amoral?" I thought about this as I replied; "I am. Yes, of course I am. I am not a philosopher. I am not a minister. I wouldn't presume to tell my students what is morally right or wrong about mechanizing production systems.' He said, "Are you sure that is the right philosophy for a teacher of management?" 60
The more I thought about this question, the more un- comfortable I became about my answer. A few years ago Ben wrote an article in the Harvard Business Review entitled, '~Businessmen in Power." One point hit . . me hard-that the impact of technological change on the society is so great that the moral impact is part of the business decision. It should not be ignored. ~ businessman should not be amoral about employing technology. He will make bad mistakes if he neglects the moral dimensions of the technology he usesO Consider what happens to some technological innovations. If they are used in an abrupt enough manner, they tear up society in such a way that some element of society reacts. The unions, the government' and the public respond with indignation, reaction, or defense. There is some point at which the power of what we do is so great that we can't neglect its consequences. Take the question of putting in a hefter method in your factory. I suggest none of us would hesitate to bring in an electric typewriter and replace one secretary. If we buy a small machine and replace two men, we do this without any qualms. What happens, however, when we install a machine that replaces 600 men overnight? I suggest that society won't take many blows like this without a reaction. I do not mean that moral values are measured by quantitative impacts. I do mean that the impact of powerful technological changes is so great that whether or not the business- man cares about moral implications, he must take them into con- sideration. The engineer and the technologist must participate in the decisions to wisely apply the innovations which they create. This last slide I would like to credit to a brilliant science fiction writer, Mr. Arthur Clarke. He was the man who first suggested the communication satellite. I have taken an idea of his from his excellent book, Profiles of the Future and ex- panded it. Where do we go wrong in our~appraisal'of innovation? There are four failures. 1. The failure of assumptions. We incorrectly interpret technology, or fail' to~explore inadequately. Clarke shows startling errors in the assessment of the technological possibilities of rockets, submarines, and airplanes. The errors are due to the assumptions about technology. 2. ~ . This is failure to trans- late technological 3a; r=~ :]b~ ~ 1 consequences. 3. The failure of vision. We fail to see the interaction between the technological advance and outside affairs. 4. The failure of nerve. We haven't quite got the belief or courage~to' act upon~the~conclusions of our analyses. 61
I know you have had a long day, and I am afraid I have added more confusion than light to the technological ferment before us. However, I have tried to convey that we are engaged in in- credible technological advances. These advances can be dissected and studied to some extent. Their consequences must be weighed not only in material terms, but in moral terms. You and I have a responsibility to soften the impact of these advances on society, and to enhance the merits of these advances for the use of all mankind. 62
Exhibit 1. Increased Transportation Capability Areas of advance Some typical means Some results Mastery of greater distances in less time and/or cost Movement and opera- tions in new media Space Underseas Arctic areas Jet transports Helicopters Ground effects machines "Piggyback" rail transport Container ships and trains Pipelines Supertankers Passenger conveyors Hydrofoil boats Aerospace vehicles Submarines, bathy- scaphes, aqua lungs Helicopters, Arctic housing, utilities, trackless trains, and living systems World-wide commerical and pleasure travel of up to 3,000 miles in 8 hours Overnight freight service national y and to most international centers Specialized transportation systems for high-volume items or dense traffic patterns Specialized handling devices linked to these transport systems Warfare in new mediums, with asso- ciated attack, defense, surveil- lance, and communications devices Development of new support devices Acquisition of scientific knowledge Beginnings of new commercial opera- tions (e.g., communications sated ites, weather stations) 63
Exhibit 2. Increased Mastery Of Energy Areas of advance Some typical means Some results Far greater magnitudes and intensities of power available Energy handled in more minute quantities, and control ed with . . . 1ncreasec . preclslon Power generated and transformed by new sources and devices Significant advances in energy storage New techniques for large-scale trans- portation of energy and fuels H-bombs, nuclear re- actors and nuclear dynamite, chemical fuels for rockets Semiconductors, lasers microelectronics Nuclear reactors, fuel cells, solar cells, magnetohydrodynamics, thermoionics, jet engines, stationary power plants Atomic fuel, fuel cells, nickel-cadmium bat- teries, pump-hydro power, and tidalpower Extra-high voltage transmission lines, liquid propane gas ships, oil, gas, and coal pipelines, unit trains, and cross- country conveyor belts Major change in methods of warfare, national defense, strategy and tactics, and international politics New scientific knowledge New power-plant fuels Thousands of new technical needs Possibilities for major alteration of geographic features Thousands of new components, products and processes New instrumentation Many new demands for scientific and technical knowledge Reduction in size of many devices Production processes based on high- energy forming, spark erosion, electrodeposition ~ polishing, ultrasonics, and so on Continuing pressure for advances in fuels, materials, and controls Need for scientific knowledge and technical development Increased portability Longer operation between refuelings Lower power costs Cheaper movement of many fuels Transportation of energy and fuels feasible over greater distances Specialized construction and trans- portation equipment 64
Exhibit 3. Increased Ability To Extend And Control The Life Of Animate And Inanimate Wings Areas of advance Some typical means Some results Alteration of living things: Longer life Toleration of ex- treme climatic conditions Control of growth with respect to proportions and timing; and maxi- mization of most valuable portions Greater resistance to disease and accident Elimination of unde- sirable life Longer life for perish- able foods and other organic products and items Reduced deterioration in physical goods Selective breeding Development of hybrids and special strains Special feeding and fertilizing Protective treatment by antibiotics and chemicals Environmental control of temperature and moisture Packaging methods Protective environ- ments, such as freez- ing, dehydration, and irradiation More durable materials Treatments to inhibit insect infestation, corrosion, wear fungi, and other factors Better construction and design More economic value per unit Usefulness maintained for longer times and over a wider range of conditions Production possible in new regions Demand for special treatments and equipments Shelf life increased Seasonality effects and limitations reduced Less maintenance Longer life Fewer parts Exhibit 4. Increased Ability To Alter The Characteristics Of Materials Areas of advance Some typical means Some results New properties for old materials Synthetic materials Combinations of mate- rials to provide unique characteris- tics Chemical and metallurgi- cal knowledge applied to alter properties of materials Better control of purity, additives, and processes New production processes Typical examples: aluminum engine blocks, paper and plastic replace- ment of textile cloth Synthetic fibers, rub- ber, oil, and food Fiberglas, prestressed concrete, ceramic- metallic compounds, laminated wood beams and panels of alumi- num-plastic honeycomb construction Improvement of properties such as strength, weight, heat resistance, and corrosion resistance End-users require different produc- tion processes and work force skills New product design opportunities Lower cost for many materials and/or end products 65
Exhibit 5. Extension Of Man's Sensory Capabilities Areas of advance Some typical means Some results Vision Hearing Touch Power of discrimina- tion -visual, olfactory, aural, and so on Memory (preservation of visual and aural impressions) Radar Electron microscope Television Radio astronomy Microphone and amplifi- cation techniques; magnetic tape re- cording Instrumentation and control combinations which identify minute or distant condi- tions, and provide for human response to alter them Instrumentation to de- tect minute quanti- .ties and dimensions Measurement and ampli- fication technique Great advances in photographic sensi- tivity and accuracy of reduction Duplication techniques (Xerography) Instant preservation of vision and sound through video tape, magnetic sound tape, Polaroid photography Transportation and war operations under previously limiting conditions of darkness, fog, rain, and so on. Ability to "see" roughly 200 miles New knowledge of materials, biology, diseases New mode of education, news, enter- tainment Extension of knowledge of the universe High-fidelity radio and phonograph equipment Sound detection for war and police use Power-assisted machinery such as power steering, power brakes, aircraft controls Remote control of pipelines Radio-control drone aircraft, indus- trial cranes, and special vehicles Precise measurement, leading to new scientific knowledge, to delicate control, to safety devices New capability for recording and studying information for scienc war, technology, sociology, business New entertainment devices 66
Exhibit 6. Growing Mechanization Of Physical Activities Areas of advance Some typical means Some results Production: Direct labor tasks Work feeding Materials handling Assembly Testing and inspec- tion Packaging Distribution: Shipping and receiving Warehousing Carrier loading Communications and control: Movement of papers, blueprints, mail Recording and assembly of data Extractive industries and construction: Earth moving Mining Lumbering Agriculture Power tools, numerically controlled tools Vibratory feeders Lift trucks, cranes, conveyors Assembly machines Electronic, electrical, pneumatic, and other inspection devices Automatic packaging machinery Lift trucks, cranes, conveyors, automatic pelletizers, auto- mated material move- ment and control systems based on con- veyors and retrievers Pneumatic bulk loading Air-tube carriers, fac- simile, wired TV vertical selective conveyors, two-way radio, dictating and transcribing equipment, teletypewriters and telescribers Heavy duty cross-country conveyors, 100-ton power shovels, spread of special-purpose vehicles such as trac- tor shovels, load car- riers, straddle car- riers, bulldozers, and so on Larger machine content and investment Change in work force skills (usually) Reduction in labor per unit output Increased maintenance (usually) Greater capacity Less flexibility (usual y) Faster response to demands on the production system 67
Exhibit 7. Growing Mechanization Of Inter ectual Processes Areas of advance Some typical means Some results Direction of long, intricate machinery actions Information processing Problem solving Feedback control of process equipment Punched card control of bulk materials batch- ing Numerically controlled machine tools Punched-tape control of typewriters, and so on Computers and business machinery to acquire, sort, manipulate, interpret, store, and display selected data Mechanical reproduction of selected data, forms, checks, and so on Computer solutions of complex scientific, engineering, and business calculations Computer simulation of business and military problems Operations research problem analysis by computers Increased accuracy, reduced setup time, improved uniformity, reduc- tion in operator training, need for programmers Reduction of clerical labor Increased speed in preparing papers of all types Improved accuracy Speed in summarizing business condi Lions Solution of problems otherwise unfeasible Exploration of complex problems Decision making assistance on major business and military policies and strategies 68
