Click for next page ( 22


The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page 21
Uses of the Sea NEAR-SHORE ENVIRONMENT Development of Recreational O pportunities The demand for outdoor recreation has been accelerating tremendously, particularly since World War II, and much of this demand is concerned with the use and enjoyment of our water resources. All indications point toward a continuation of this trend. The use of the seashore and adjacent estuaries and oceanic waters for sportfishing, swimming, skin diving, boating, surfing, or simply contem- plating the beauty of nature, is becoming more popular, not only for people living near the sea, but, with growth of rapid transportation facilities, for many living inland. We have not found it possible to determine a precise value for the rec reat~onal uses of the sea and its shores, nor can we predict the exact rate of growth necessary to meet the increasing demands for seashore recrea- tional facilities. There are a number of specific examples, however, of the value of certain recreational uses of the sea, as well as specific indi- cators of future needs, that we have used in making an admittedly first- order estimate of the value of these recreational activities, and of the rate of growth of this value. The National Survey of Fishing and Hunting in 1960 showed that salt- water anglers spent 626 million dollars for goods and services. Between 1955 and 1960, the number of salt-water sport fishermen increased 6.7 per cent per year. We believe that this trend has continued and probably accelerated. A study by the Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission indicates that, in 1960, boats and outboard motors were used by 5,020,000 households. The National Association of Engine and Boat Manufacturers claims that 793,000 inboard motor boats and 4,085,000 outboard motor boats were used in 1962. In addition there are, of course, many sailboats. We do not have a breakdown by fresh- and salt-water use, but estimate that at least 25 per cent of these boats are used for marine recreation. There are, for example, about 13,000 small pleasure craft in the waters of San Diego County, California, alone. Recognizing the need for marine recreational areas, the National Park Service is establishing national seashores on the Atlantic, Gulf, and 21

OCR for page 21
Pacific Coasts, and underwater aquatic parks at Key Largo in Florida and St. John in the Virgin Islands. Interest in the seashore as the destination for vacation and other rec reation travel is apparent from the studies that have been made to date. A recreation study of the Delaware River Basin, prepared by the Gallup organization, indicated a marked preference for the seashore. Among the people living in or near the Delaware Basin, the New jersey seashore was the first choice for 48 per cent of the persons interviewed when asked about their preferred area for a day outing. For w~ekencic the fir A C) . ~. . r . ~ ~ -t) __ _ was ~o per cent. ~eventy-seven per cent ot the people interviewed had been to the New Jersey seashore at some time, and, in the year preceding the interviews, 45 per cent of the people who had taken vacation trips spent at least part of their time at the New jersey shore. The Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission has estimated that increases in all factors upon which increase of demand for recre- ation depends can be expected to continue in the period through 1976. During this period the demand for water-oriented recreation is expected to rise much more rapidly than the demand for outdoor recreation in general. For example, there is expected to be a 76 percent increase in swimming, a 79 per cent increase in boating (other than sailing and canoeing), and a 114 per cent increase in water skiing as compared with an over-all in- crease of 57 per cent in outdoor recreational activity. This large demand for marine recreational facilities requires careful planning in order to develop to the fullest the potential for small boat har- bors, for improved in-shore fishing, and for suitable public beaches for sunning, swimming, and surfing. The demand is so great, in fact, that in effect, ways must be found to "stretch" the natural shoreline. While there are many sociological problems associated with effec- tive planning for marine recreational facilities, our concern here is with the physical, chemical, geological, and biological factors that affect the maximum recreational utilization of the marine environment. Many factors influence the recreational uses of the shoreline. Pollution currently restricts the use of some areas, and potentially could be a major deterrent to adequate recreational usage of the in-shore areas. This par- ticular problem is treated separately in the next section. Even the control of fresh-water runoff from the land may have pro- found effects on the seashore recreational resources. For example, on the beaches of southern California, the sand supplied by rivers is transported along the beach by wave-generated currents, and is lost to the deep sea at submarine canyons. Runoff control has cut the supply of sand to nearly zero and, without some intervention, the beaches may seriously deterio- rate within the next two decades. On the other hand, desirable sandy swimming areas along some East Coast estuaries have been ruined by the deposition of fine sediments, in the form of muds high in organic content, as a result of upland erosion 22

OCR for page 21
followed by stream transport into the estuary. In some cases increased shore erosion from adjacent shorelines in the estuary has supplied the fine sediments. In other instances spoil from the dredging of navigation chan- nels may, because of imoroner ~ i.c.no~ 1 con trill l to to ah ~ ~ Are ~ ~ or the swimming areas. 1 - r ~r ~ ~^ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~1~ ~ all Al ~ LlL}ll 01 As was made clearly evident by the March, 1962 storm that struck the middle-Atlantic coastal states, sand-beach recreational areas are sub- ject to severe damage due to storm LATIN ~ t;~e Scram 1 ~ esses of wind, waves, tides, anct currents can thwart man's attempts to improve a coastal area for his benefit, unless the influence of these proc- esses is understood and allowed for in the design of the improvement works. The development of new beach areas, the protection of beaches against erosional or depositional damage, the extension of coastlines, the develop- ment of new boat harbors, the development of improved sport fishing through the building of artificial reefs all are subject to the natural physical, chemical, biological, and geological processes of the sea. Im- proved oceanographic knowledge of these processes can materially influ- ence the effectiveness with which plans for such developments are brought to fruition, and hence can materially reduce the costs of successful develop- ment. a_, ^~^ ~BAIT LIONS. ~ V ~11 1l~l 1ll~l pi ~ In addition, the efficiency and safety of management and use of marine recreational facilities can be improved through adequate forecasts of wind, wave, and surf conditions, and of storm tides. These are also important areas of oceanographic research. It is difficult to place a monetary value on the availability to man of sufficient and adequate recreational facilities. Aesthetic values cannot readily be converted to monetary ones. One possible measure is the gross value of goods and services expended in connection with the recreational use of the marine environment. The available fragmentary information of the type quoted earlier in the section suggests that the gross annual expenditure for the recreational use of the sea in the United States is at least 2 billion dollars a year, and that this is growing by at least ~ per cent a year. Th;~ ~ . _ _ . . 1~ ~ 1 His growth can continue only ~t new marine recreational facilities are developed and the existing and new facilities are adequately protected from deterioration. Oceanographic research on the various near-shore processes will be essential to the development and protection of these necessary new recreational facilities. The cost of such research is estimated at an average of 10 million dollars a year over the next several decades. It would not be unreasonable to consider that at least 10 per cent of the average annual increase in the gross value of marine recreation will result from such research. Public Health cant Welfare Fifty-two million people live within a 50-mile-wide belt along the coast 23

OCR for page 21
line of the continental United States. This coastal belt, representing about 8 per cent of the total land areas of the United States, is occupied by 29 per cent of our population and contains a vast industrial complex. Both the population and the industrial development in this coastal region have been increasing at about ?.5 per cent a year, with no indication of a re- versal in the upward trend. We have always used the adjacent marine environment as a dumping ground for unwanted municipal and industrial waste products. The increase in population density is causing a shift from individual septic systems, local collection networks and sewage-treatment plants to large-scale interceptor sewage networks and centralized treat- ment plants. Many of these systems discharge treated or partially treated effluent directly into coastal ernbayments and estuaries or through out- falls into open coastal waters. As a result of this trend, the use of the ma- rine environment as a dump for waste components is increasing at a much faster rate than that of the population growth of the coastal region. The estuaries and coastal seas have long been a major source of sea- food. While the increase in the use of these coastal waters for seafood has not been as great as the population increase in the coastal belt, the demand for sport fisheries and other recreational uses has increased at a rapid rate, as we have noted in the previous section. We consider that the term "public health and welfare" includes the protection of our natural resources for the benefit of man, both as a source of managed harvest of products and for recreational purposes. We take it as a premise that the combined monetary value of the in-shore commer- cial fisheries and marine recreation, plus perhaps even more important the aesthetic value of marine recreation, requires that the in-shore marine environment must be protected against deterioration resulting from the discharge of waste products. It is an inescapable fact that, even with the best treatment system available today or likely to be available in the foreseeable future, large volumes of treated liquid effluent, originating primarily from municipal sewage-treatment plants, will be discharged into the near-shore marine environment. The marine environment can assimilate a certain amount of waste discharge without damage to its other uses. In fact, a valuable, legitimate use of this environment is as a diluting and assimilating me- dium for waste materials, provided they are deposited in such amounts and in such a manner that the capacity of the environment is not exceeded. By capacity we mean a rate of introduction that will not result in any degradation of the marine environment from the standpoint of other uses, such as fishing and recreation. At present growth rates, the population of the coastal belt should double in the next 30 years. The task of reconciling the existing and poten- tial conflicts between recreation and other uses of the coastal zone is one of the nation's urgent problems. Existing sewage-treatment facilities are inadequate even for the current population, and new facilities for the treat 24

OCR for page 21
ment of municipal wastes from at least 50 million people must be provided In the coastal belt of the continental United States in the next 30 Years. Since the r~n~rit~r ^[ I;; [~ CAN ~ Rae ~ ~_~lOLI115 1l~Oll-wdL~l Q1-~111~ge systems to receive wastes has already been reached or exceeded in many areas, marine coastal waters will probably receive the major portion of rho inCr~c~l treated sewage effluent. Providing the collector systems, interceptor sewer systems, and treat- ment plants for domestic sewage will cost between $70 and $100 per capita for the capital costs of the sewage-treatment plant. Thus, in the next 30 years, approximately 1.5 billion to 2.0 billion dollars should be spent on sewage-treatment plants that will discharge treated effluent into estuarine and coastal segments of the marine environment. These estimates apply to the capital costs of a nominal secondary treatment plant. In theory, the degree of treatment that a given plant is designed to provide depends on engineering estimates of the load to be handled by the plant and the "capacity" of the environment to receive the treated effluent safely. The capital costs, as well as the operating costs, increase significantly as the degree of treatment that the plant is designed to pro Vi~e inCr~f~c Th~l ~A t'~q,~ ~1~+ ,1~:~ ,_ _ .. . _J in_ <~ ~= ~1 Unclog= ._ all. and, a L1C:<;~111~11t p1~1t aeSlgnea Lo remove the gross solids and 55 to 60 per cent of the biological oxygen demand (BOD), which is in the range of plants nominally designated as "primary" treatment plants, has a capital cost of about one half that of a "secondary" treatment plant designed to remove 90 per cent of the BOD. There is an approx- imately exponential increase in plant capital costs with increase in per- centage of BOD removed in treatment. Sanitary engineers express the degree of treatment of sanitary wastes in terms of the percentage of BOD removed. It is likely that other fac- tors, such as the amount of phosphate, the amount of inorganic nitrogen- containing nutrients, or the concentration of pathogenic bacteria in the effluent, may be of equal or greater importance with respect to the effect of a particular effluent on the in-shore marine environment. The possible effect of the inorganic components of the effluent on the environment is not generally given sufficient consideration in the engi- neering design of sewage-treatment plants and outfall locations. Informa- tion on capital and operational costs is available only in terms of percen- tage of BOD removal. The increment costs associated with the waste treatment necessary to safeguard the environment are certainly not over- estimated in our analysis as a result of using the percentage of BOD ret moved as an index. In the ideal case, the engineer designing a sewage-treatment plant would have complete information on the effect of the treated effluent on the marine environment. This information would include the physical movement and dispersion of the wastes, and the biochemical and geo- chemical interaction of the waste components with the marine environ- ment, including, for instance, the survival of pathogenic microorganisms 25

OCR for page 21
and the effects of waste components on the aquatic life. With this infor- mation, the engineer could design optimum treatment facilities to protect the fisheries and the recreational uses of the environment, and funds for plant construction could be utilized with maximum efficiency. No com- ponent of the treatment system would be over designed (involving a waste of funds) or underdesigned (involving risk to other valuable uses of the marine environment>. As stated previously, it is a premise of these proposals that the fisher- ies and recreational uses of the near-shore environment must be fully protected against degradation by pollution. Therefore, municipal sewage- treatment plants discharging effluent into the near-shore marine enviorn- ment must be designed so that the assimilating capacity of the waters is not exceeded. This can be accomplished efficiently that is, at minimum cost only if adequate information is made available on the physical, chemical, biological, and geological processes in the near-shore marine environment into which the wastes are to be discharged. The conven- tional sanitary-engineering methods for determining the waste-receiving capacity of unidirectionally flowing fresh-water streams and rivers are com- pletely inadequate to treat the corresponding problem in tidal estuaries and open coastal waters. We lack both the engineering know-how and the basic scientific background on the physical, chemical, and biological processes in the estuarine and coastal marine environments, required to treat the problem. Much of the required research is outside the usual scope of sanitary engineering and falls within the field of oceanography. Oceanographic research in the near-shore marine environment can provide information required to determine the type and degree of treat- ment needed for a given outfall location, and can also provide information needed to determine the best outfall location. In some cases the added cost of locating the outfall in a region of greater receiving capacity may be less than the added cost of more complete treatment. In view of the fact that, when the treatment must, in any case, be relatively high, there is a large incremental change in capital cost for a small incremental change in degree of treatment, it is our estimate that oceanographic research could provide as much as a 25 per cent savings in required capital costs of sewage-treatment plants. This savings would then amount to a half billion dollars over the next 30 years. The annual operating cost for a sewage-treatment plant designed to remove 80 per cent of the biological oxygen demand for a population of one million people is approximately 3.5 million dollars. The annual operating cost for 90 per cent removal is about 4.5 million dollars. Probably most of the new sewage-treatment plants that will discharge effluent to the marine environment will be designed to remove 80 + 15 per cent of the BOD. The incremental increase In operating costs for the sewage-treatment plants required in the coastal belt in the next 30 years is approximately 50 mil- lion dollars per year per 10 per cent increase in percentage of remove 26

OCR for page 21
over a base cost of 195 million dollars per year for 80 per cent removal. At the present time, knowledge of the capacity of the coastal marine en- vironment to receive domestic sewage wastes safely is sufficient only to estimate required plant capacities to within a range of about 20 per cent in removal. This paucity of knowledge of the environment requires that a margin of safety be taken in the design of sewage-treatment plants dis- charging effluent into estuarine and coastal waters in order to protect recreational and fisheries uses. The required margin of safety could cost 50 to 100 million dollars per year, which could be saved by adequate en- vironmental knowledge. ~ . Lit , 1 1- ~ ~ . ~ .~ Prom a strictly hnanc~al viewpoint, failure to provide adequate infor- mation on the physical, chemical, and biological character of the in-shore marine environment could result either in (1) curtailment of a substantial portion of the recreational and fisheries industries now having a gross annual value of about a billion dollars, or (2) the overexpenditure in com- bined capital and operational costs for sewage-treatment plants of about 80 to 120 million dollars a year. This discussion has been limited primarily to the relationship of oceanographic research to the problems of discharge of treated domestic sewage effluent into the in-shore marine environment herniae rho chic ~ ~ ~ ~ uu~c sewage treatment were more readily available than were equivalent data for other questions bearing on public health, welfare, and recreation. The same oceanographic research required to define the phys- ical, chemical, and biological character of the in-shore marine environ- ment in relation to domestic sewage effluent is also required to deal with the effects of industrial wastes and effluents from nuclear power plants. Industrial-waste discharges into some estuarine and coastal waters have had a more serious effect on recreation and fisheries than have domestic- sewage discharges. Improved technology and more effective enforcement of local pollution regulations are leading to improvements in this situation. However, the capacity of the in-shore marine environment to receive indus- trial waste discharges at a level that does not restrict other uses repre- sents a natural resource that should be kept available to industry. The proper management of this resource requires the same type and extent of oceanographic research that is required by the municipal sewage prob- lem. The factual basis for resolving conflicts between alternate uses of our coastal waters requires detailed and complex research in many h~-~h~ ~f ~ ~1__ ~ .1 al "ll~ll~ ~ ~ Bug -my. because tne resource in question is common property, and because the conflicts among different uses concern public policy, the major share of the required research will doubtless have to be supported by public funds. An annual expenditure of up to 15 million dollars for oceanographic research in estuarine and coastal environments over the next several dec- ades is certainly warranted from the standpoint of the public health and welfare alone. 27

OCR for page 21
Already several nuclear power plants are under construction on estu- aries and coastal embayments. The future development of nuclear power will require increased use of in-shore marine waters as a source of con- denser coolant for nuclear power plants. Some release of radioactive nuclides to the marine environment will result from such use. Some of the same research on physical dispersion required for other waste-discharge problems will be required to determine the possible effects of this discharge to the marine environment. Research on the biological effects of radio- active materials is also required to protect the public welfare. It is not possible at this time to evaluate the costs versus the benefits of this added research; however, these considerations reinforce the need for in-shore oceanographic research at a level of at least 15 to 20 million dollars a year. FOR TRANSPORTATION Among major raw materials, the United States is now self-sufficient only in coal, molybdenum, phosphate, and magnesium. Wood and petro- leum have shifted from net exports to net imports, and we are deficient in asbestos, tin, manganese, iron ore, bauxite, cobalt, nickel, chromite, quartz crystal, and industrial diamonds. Our imports of other essential raw materials and food products are rising steadily. Visible exports from the United States still greatly exceed imports, however, and a con- tinuing increase in exports is necessary for the stability and dynamic growth of our economy. The sea is the major highway for the international transportation of heavy or bulky materials; it will undoubtedly remain so for many gen- erations to come. A 1960 study by the Office of Civil Defense Mobilization estimates that total U. S. foreign trade in oceanic shipping will rise from a 1959 level of 277 million long tons to almost 400 million tons in 1970 an increase of about 48 per cent. This quantity of ocean cargo will require full-time use of between 20 and 30 million deadweight tons of cargo ships, partly under the United States flag and partly under foreign flags. Assuming a 20-year life for these vessels, the world rate of ship construction for replacement of existing tonnage carrying our trade will be between 1.0 and 1.5 million deadweight tons annually. By 1970, the amount of cargo to and from the United States should be increasing at a rate of about 15 million tons a year, and the rate of construction of new ships for this increased trade will be between 0.75 and 1.1 million tons a year. Thus the total world ship con- struction required for U. S. ocean trade in 1970 will be between 1.75 and 2.6 million tons a year. Perhaps as much as half of this new tonnage will be in bulk carriers, with a construction cost of around $150 per dead- weight ton, and the other half in smaller cargo ships costing around $250 per deadweight ton. Assuming that our ocean trade will continue to in- crease during the 1970's, the annual cost of new construction will be close ~- - 1 28

OCR for page 21
to 500 million dollars by the middle of the decade. All this cost will be a burden on American importers and exporters, and on their overseas cus- tomers and suppliers. Freight costs for ocean cargos vary widely with the type of cargo and the distance it is carried. We estimate that with present technology the total freight cost for United States ocean trade will be $5 billion a year by 1975. About half of these costs would be charged against the time the ships are at sea, and the other half against the "turn-around" time required for loading and unloading and other operations in port. A reduction in the cost of ocean shipping would serve the interests of the United States and of the countries with which we trade. In particular, lower shipping costs would help the less-developed countries, because they are so largely dependent for their economic development on the over- seas sale of raw materials and agricultural products, and on the importa- tion of heavy machinery for industrialization. Oceanographic research can make significant contributions to a reduction in ocean shipping costs. Many aspects of knowledge about the oceans have a direct bearing on their use as the major intercontinental highway. For example, better sta- tistics on sea-surface waves should make it possible to improve the de- sign and lower the cost of new ships. Through improvements in the forecasting of waves, winds, and currents, ships could be routed better along minimum time paths; thereby reducing both fuel consumption and time at sea. Improved routing also should lower storm losses. Stranding and collision losses could be lowered through improvements in naviga- tion, based on more detailed knowledge of sea-bottom topography. Greater knowledge of nearshore wave and current conditions and sea-floor charac- teristics is needed for improvement of existing harbors and contraction of new ones, and for the development of new methods of loading and unload- ing. Increased knowledge of the life histories, behavior, and physiology of fouling and boring organisms could help to lower the losses caused by these pests. Ship Design Wind-generated ocean-surface waves produce the major strains suf- fered by a ship, and the wave spectrum must be taken into account in the earliest design stages. Waves cause the heavy slamming and the em- ergence of the propeller that produce dangerous vibrations, and knowledge of waves is of basic importance in designing for freeboard, stability, and hull strength. The loss of speed to be expected in heavy weather must be taken into account in computing fuel consumption and power requirements. Values for ship length and ship speed must be combined with wave fre- quencies to give what has been called "frequencies of encounter." The power spectrum, coherence, and time variability of waves need to be known in evaluating the behavior of a ship as a system that responds to wave forces. Much better statistical information on the distribution of 29

OCR for page 21
these wave properties in space and time throughout the oceans is essen- tial if ships are to be designed with the higher payload/weight ratios and narrower tolerances that are sought in other kinds of transporta- tion. At present, this statistical information is insufficient even to allow ship designers to know how realistic are the wave conditions that they create in their test and model basins. The Maritime Administration has recently advanced the idea of design- ing ships specifically for certain limited trade routes. Construction costs could be reduced by building ships to withstand the waves to be expected only along one particular route. For this Purpose, more data and analyses 1 1 ' ~ ~. . . - ~. are needed to alstlngulsh the wave cnaracterlstlcs or various ocean areas. Another path to increased variability in ship design would open if freight rates could be varied to recognize the value of speed of delivery. It might be possible under a policy of varying freight rates to have a cer- tain number of express ships, similar to the rail express and air freight of land and air transportation systems. Beside the savings that could be effected in design of conventional shins through Greater knowledge of conditions near the sea surface. any --rig an-- c~-~~-~ to A- ~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~ ~~~~ ~~~~ ~~~~-~~-~~ ~~--~ radical departures in design, such as the development of hovercraft, hydro- foils, or cargo-carrying submarines must be based on knowledge of the oceans. The availability of shorter routes utilizing under-ice movement contributes to the possible appeal of the commercial submarine. The polar route between London and Tokyo, for example, is only 6,300 miles long, as opposed to the 11,200 miles of the conventional surface route. From Hono- lulu to London, the under-ice polar route would save nearly 3,000 miles. Costs of new ships per ton of carrying capacity have been lowered in recent years through improvements in ship-machinery and ship-yard tech- nology, but further reductions seem possible through improved design. If a 10 per cent reduction could be attained within the next ten years by taking advantage of better wave statistics, this would be worth $50 million a year to United States shipping. Ascribing 30 per cent of this saving to oceanographic research, the benefits over the next 20 years, when discounted to the present time, become $88 million slightly more than the cost esti- mated for the needed research. Minimum Time Paths and Reduced Storm Losses If the causes of waves, the mechanisms for their growth, propagation, and decay, and the effect of waves on ships were completely understood, and if the distribution in time and space throughout the world oceans of these causes and effects were known, it would be possible to predict what would happen to a ship along any given route. Ships could then be routed along an optimum time track or routed for maximum comfort or safety. To some extent, this is already being done on the basis of the rather limited available knowledge. The Naval Oceanographic Once has prepared 30

OCR for page 21
wave forecasts for a number of tows of heavy equipment that were ex- tremely sea-sensitive. The Texas Tower radar stations were towed into position on the basis of recommended routes and predicted wave conditions. The movement of a Saturn rocket booster from New Orleans to Cape Ken- nedy was governed in part by a similar service provided by oceanograph- ers. In 1956, the Navy Hydrographic Office initiated the Navy's ship-rout- ~ng service with a total of 34 experimental routes. Presently, the Navy is provided with about 1,600 optimum tracks per year. The Maritime Ad- ministration and some commercial steamship operators have also utilized the Least-Time Track principle to reduce the travel time of vessels at sea. Savings in steaming time have been recorded at eight hours for a 3,000- miIe trip, and 13 to 15 hours for a trip of 5,000 miles. The ship-routing technique is still in its infancy. Especially needed at this stage are efficient methods of tracking vessels, improved communi- cations, further development of the confidence of maritime operators in utilizing the technology, and, most important, better knowledge of winds and currents near the sea surface and of the generation, propagation, decay, and effects on the ships of ocean-surface waves. For a ship whose operating costs at sea run $3,000 per day, a saving of 12 hours on a transoceanic crossing is worth $1,500. Considering the num- ber of ships operating at any given time, the potential savings to the maritime industry from a perfected ship-routing program could run into large sums. We estimate that a 10 per cent saving in average ship time at sea, worth about $250 million annually to American shippers, could be attained by 1975. Assigning 30 per cent of this saving to the knowledge gained by oceanographic research, the benefits discounted to the present are nearly three times the estimated cost of the research. To this would be added the potential savings from reducing storm damage to ships and cargo. In 1962, four ships totaling 30,118 gross tons were lost in storms, and 822 ships sustained partial losses. The average dollar costs to the world's ocean shipping from weather damage may be of the order of $150 million a year; about a third of this cost should be charge- able to American shipping. A 10 per cent reduction in weather losses through improved routing would be worth $5 million a year to the United States. Navigation and Strand ings Traditionally, the ship captain has been fearful of running aground. The Loss Book of the Liverpool Underwriters' Association shows that in 1962 these [ears were still well founded, for in that year strandings were "exceptionally bad," and 68 ships were lost. This amounted to 280,732 gross tons of shipping. Partial losses from running aground were sustained by 925 ships. Collisions caused a further loss of 14 ships totaling 60,843 gross tons, and partial losses to 1,804 ships. Better navigation will mean fewer strandings and less loss or damage to ships and cargo; it will mean 31

OCR for page 21
cycles, together with studies of the properties of the woods used for harbor structures in different parts of the world, and of various chemical or physi- cal deterrents to the animals. LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING Recent meteorological studies show that changes in large-scale weather patterns over periods of weeks to many years are closely related to changes in the temperature distribution of the water layers near the surface of the sea. Because the sea behaves more sluggishly than the air, these observations indicate that improvements in long-range weather forecasting can be made through studies of the large-scale interactions between the oceans and the atmosphere. The present accuracy of long- range forecasting is low, but if it could be improved, great economic ben- efits would follow; for example, in planting and harvesting crops, in plan- ning seasonal fuel transportation and storage, in the time of building and road construction, and in flood and drought protection. Flood damage could be reduced by management of flood-control struc- tures; for example, by lowering the water levels in reservoirs prior to periods of heavy precipitation or snow melt. The costs of construction of buildings, highways, telephone and telegraph lines, pipelines, darns, and public utilities would be lowered, if scheduling of labor and equipment could be planned to take advantage of good weather. The costs of fuels and electric power used in space heating and air conditioning would be reduced if public utilities and fuel producers could plan production, transportation, and storage on the basis of reliable forecasts of warm or cold winters and hot or cool summers. Commercial vegetable growers could know which vegetables to plant and when, depending on forecasts of growing conditions in different parts of the country. The vegetable processing and marketing industries could save money by scheduling their operations on the basis of anticipated volume and quality of the crops in different farm areas. Fruit growers and packers and wine makers would be able to time their harvesting and processing operations. Cattlemen and hog farmers would be able to make better estimates of the volume and prices of feed grains and the productivity of pasture and range lands. The operators of ski resorts would know whether they would need snow plows, or trucks to bring in additional snow, during the coming winter. Hotel men in Florida ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . . . 1 _ and in lSal~torn~a could plan for a heavy or a light tourist season, and ~n- dividual families would be able to think ahead about where and when to take vacations. Over the 15-year period from 1946 through 1960, the estimated damage from floods in the United States was $4.2 billion, or an average of 5280 million a yearn Better long-range weather forecasting might reduce this by 25-50 per cent, or 70 to 140 million dollars a year. ~ U.S. Departmc-nt of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Statistical Abstracts, published by the U. S. Government Printing Office, 1963. 36

OCR for page 21
Annual expenditures on new construction in 1962 were $59 billion, and about three million people were employed. Labor costs amounted to roughly one third of the total costs. If the efficiency of utilization of labor and equipment could be improved by 5 per cent through better scheduling based on reliable long-range weather forecasts, a billion dollars would be saved. Fuels and electric power cost U. S. consumers around $40 billion a year. About one fourth of this represents the cost of space heating and air conditioning. If 5 per cent could be saved by better scheduling of coal, oil, and natural gas production; oil-refining operations; transportation by pipe- lines, rail, and ships; and storage; this would be worth $500 million. The total value to the farmers of commercial vegetable production in 1962 was $1.2 billion. The value of potato production was roughly $500 million and of fruits including grapes perhaps $2 billion. The added value from processing and marketing was about twice these figures. A five per cent gain through better planning and scheduling would represent $500 million. The farm value of cattle and hog production in 1962 was $9 billions Weather-produced variations in the size of the crops of corn, oats, and hay have serious economic effects for livestock producers, as do changes from year to year in the productivity of permanent pastures and range lands, caused by variations in seasonal rainfall. Significant savings would be obtained if the farmers could plan how to feed and dispose of their stock on the basis of reliable long-range weather forecasts. A five per cent saving would amount to $450 million. Adding these various figures, we arrive at a total of around $2.5 billion that could be saved by farmers, fuel producers, public utilities, builders, and water managers if they were equipped with better forecast- ing tools. This figure does not take into account the economic benefits that might be obtained in the various industries associated with tourism and recreation, or the intangible savings to individual families. Although we believe the total is conservative, each of its components is quite clearly arbitrary and uncertain. To be on the safe side we have reduced the savings in Table 1 resulting from improvements in long-range weather forecasts to 52 billion. The ocean of air in which we live and the ocean of water beneath us are interlocked components of a great heat engine. The engine works to transport heat energy from low latitudes to high latitudes, where it is radiated into space. Much of the energy of the air about one third- enters it through the condensation of water vapor evaporated from the sea su~f~ace. A large part of the remainder is transferred as sensible heat from the warm sea to cooler air. Evaporation and heating do not take place uniformly over the ocean, nor are they uniform at any given latitude. They U. S. Department of Agriculture, Annual Report, Agricultural Statistics, 1963. 37

OCR for page 21
are high where the cloud cover is small and in those regions where the difference in temperature between the sea and the air is greatest. The areas of maximum temperature difference between the surface ocean waters and the air shift in location and vary in intensity with time. Similarly, the regions where storms are born and the paths of storm travel appear to change with variations in water temperature near the sea sur- face. Because of its high heat capacity and massive inertia, the ocean can change only slowly with time. The persistence of weather patterns over periods of weeks to years may result, in part, from this sluggishness of tl~e ocean. The hope of improved long-range weather forecasting depends on our learning how to predict changes in persistent weather patterns. Insofar as these patterns depend on patterns in the sea, it is clear that in order to gain greater understanding of the mechanisms of change we need to under- stand the large-scale interactions between the sea and the air. Recent works has shown that anomalies in atmospheric circulation result in anomalies of ocean-surface temperature. For example, with in- creasing winds of cold origin there is an increased transfer of sensible and latent heat from the ocean to the atmosphere and an increased stir- ring of the upper layers of the stratified sea. Both of these processes result in a lowering of the sea-surface temperatures. The restoring pro- cesses by which the sea-surface temperatures return to their "average value" come from a slow strengthening of the poleward-moving ocean currents near the sea surface. One unsolved problem is to determine the character and find the rate of the changes in the ocean density distri- bution that cause these poleward currents. The large-scale interactions between the sea and the air must be stud- ied cooperatively by oceanographers and meteorologists. Time series of measurements at many points in the upper water layers should be com- bined with continuous maps of cloud cover, winds, and atmospheric tem- perature distributions over the oceans. Many of these atmospheric meas- urements will come from weather satellites, but the measurement of the ocean waters will probably require establishment of a network of anchored buoys. To attain the practical objective of improved long-range weather fore- casts will require both meterological and oceanographic research. In the present state of knowledge, it is impossible to decide the relative empha- sis that should be given to the two fields. In Table 1 we have arbitrarily allocated 20 per cent of the anticipated benefits from improved long-range weather forecasting to oceanographic studies. This does not imply that the oceanographic work is less essential than meteorological research, for ~ See, for example: J. Bjerknes "Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction" Progress Report National Science Foundation; and manuscript by J. Bjerknes and Vesna Jurcec "The E1 Nino of 1957-58 in its Relation to the Oceanwide Sea Temperature Anomalies during 1955-59." 38

OCR for page 21
the two must go hand in hand, but only that responsibilitiy for application of new knowledge to the problems of weather forecasting must rest pri- marily with the meteorologists. Forecasting is not the only economic objective of modern atmospheric research. There is reason to hope that some aspects of our planet's weather can be controlled. The murderously destructive tropical storms, called hurricanes in the Atlantic and typhoons in the western Pacific, are born and have their embryonic growth over the ocean. It is not impossible that these storms can be aborted in their early stages if means can be found to prevent anomalously large transfers of heat energy and water vapor from the sea to the air in the regions of hurricane formation. If this could be done it would be worth at least $140 million to the United States alone. Over the period from 1940 to 1957 this was the average yearly damage caused by hurricanes in the eastern and southern parts of our country. During this period nearly 1,000 people were killed by hurricanes. FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION The high seas belong to no man and to no nation, yet they are used by many men and many nations. lust as all men breathe the same air, and a storm over Pennsylvania may have begun at sea off Japan, so the ocean waters are indivisible, and events in one part of the sea even- tually have profound effects at great distances. The scientific study of the sea is not only a natural field of international scientific cooperation, but such cooperation is necessary if human understanding of the oceans is to keep pace with human needs. International cooperation in oceanography is not an end in itself. It should be undertaken only when the sum of scientific, political, and eco- nomic benefits exceeds the costs. These objectives cannot be separated in practice. Scientific cooperation will not be effective for any purpose unless it involves good science, and governments are unlikely to support it unless it serves economic and political, as well as scientific, purposes. Nevertheless, it is useful to summarize the scientific problems of the oceans that are best sv.ited to attack through international cooperation. Speeding up Exploration Over very large areas, the ocean waters, their populations of living things, and the underlying sea floor are little known. During the past hundred years, a few research and survey vessels have made exploratory traverses across the South Pacific, the Arctic, the tropical Atlantic, and the Indian Oceans. These have given some knowledge of kinds of animals and plants and the gross features of bottom topography. But recently de- velopecl powerful new tools of oceanic exploration have hardly been used in these remote regions. A massive assault is needed on the unknown areas, by modern oceanographic ships of several countries working in 39

OCR for page 21
close coordination. The International Indian Ocean Expedition and the International Cooperative Investigations of the Tropical Atlantic are ambitious examples of such cooperative efforts. In tercalibration of Methods In order to make reliable maps of the distribution of physical and chemical properties in the sea, the sizes of marine populations, and the characteristics of the sea floor, we must be sure that the measurements made by oceanographers in different countries are comparable, and thus that sampling methods are similar. International agreement must be reached on what is being measured and on the accuracy of the measurements. Studies of Air-Sea Interactions Changes in world wea~';~e1 patterns over periods of weeks to many years are closely related to changes in the temperature of the ocean waters. Measurements at many points over vast areas are required for study of these changes in the sea and the air. At the present time, no single nation has sufficient research ships or oceanographers to make all the needed measurements. Cooperation among oceanographers and meteorologists of different countries is essential. Fluctuations in Sea Level Many other oceanic phenomena occur on an ocean-wide or global scale. Examples are the tides and the seasonal and year-to-year rise and fall in sea level. To understand sea-level fluctuations, tide-gauge measure- ments must be made over long periods at many places, including remote locations where tide gauges are not normally maintained. International planning and cooperation are needed to develop a world-wide network of measuring stations. Deep-Sea Sediment Thickness Seismic refraction studies during the last 15 years hare yielded much information about the average thickness of sediments under the deep sea floor. This method gives only averages for lines 30 to 70 miles long, and it is so cumbersome that widespread coverage could not be achieved in the near future. A newiv developed technique of obtaining an echo from the rock: r 1 surface beneath the sediments permits a continuous cross section of sed~- ment thickness from a vessel under way at several knots. This method has already provided data along 200,000 miles of track, with the startling result that large variations are observed in the thickness of the sediment layer. These variations have not yet been explained. The echo method could be used easily on ships of many nations to give world-wide coverage, and an international cooperative program would be of great scientific value. 40

OCR for page 21
Censuses in the Ocean Individual species of the fishes and invertebrates of the high seas are widely and unevenly distributed; some of them wander over great distances, and their distribution and abundance change with changes in the oceanic environment. To determine the sizes, distributions, and interrela- tionships of these populations is important to the rapid development and indispensable for the conservation of world fisheries. International coopera- tion among marine biologists is needed on a systematic basis. Deep-Sea Mapping Systematic, detailed maps of the ocean floor would have many scientific and other values. But the task of making such maps will require the con- tinuous operation over several decades of a dozen or more well-equipped vessels and an international navigation network. If this great task could be shared among all interested countries, the expenses to any one country would not be burdensome. Phenomena of Special Areas Oceanographers throughout the world are interested in many phe- nomena that occur only in limited areas. Examples are coral atolls; deep sea trenches and volcanic island chains; boundary currents on the westerly sides of oceans, such as the Gulf Stream and the Black Current, or Kuroshio; and the monsoon reversals of winds and currents in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. In studying these phenomena, cooperation among c~ceanographers of the nearby nations and of more distant countries can produce great scientific benefits. On the continental shelves, an international convention requires that scientists from other countries ask permission of the coastal state before beginning investigations. Data Exchange Both theoretical studies and description of large-scale ocean processes demand compilations of observational data on an ocean-wide or global scale These data should be quickly and easily available to all interested scientists. World data centers equipped to collect, store, and retrieve suitable oceanic data have already proven useful, and continuing international cooperation in the operation of such centers is highly desirable. Exchange between Ind ibid ual Scientists Most of the above kinds of cooperation depend on international ar- rangements between governments or scientific bodies. In many ways, how- ever, the most satisfactory and useful kinds of international oceanographic cooperation are simply exchange of ideas and techniques between individual scientists of different countries, through informal exchange visits to labora 41

OCR for page 21
~ . . . . . . . . ~ . . ~ tories, Joint participation in cruises on ships ot various countries, anct participation in international scientific meetings. Benefits and Costs of International Cooperation in Oceanography The scientific needs for international cooperation in oceanography are clear. But these must be balanced against the costs, not only in money but also in the diversion of scarce scientific personnel from theoretical and experimental research and from work on smaller-scale problems of interest primarily to individuals or individual countries. The mechanisms of international cooperation are always clumsy and demand a great deal of time and devotion from many people. Other benefits, besides scientific benefits, can also be balanced against the costs. Among these are: the increases in international understanding that result from both the planning and operational aspects of cooperative efforts; strengthening of national prestige; and assistance to the scientific and economic progress of less-developed countries. An oceanographic ship in a foreign port, dedicated to advancing knowledge, is one of the best means of increasing public appreciation of the unity of science. By working with the Japanese, we are gaining greater mutual understanding of the social and economic constraints that affect the thought and action of American and Japanese scientists. FOR NATIONAL DEFENSE The Department of Defense is concerned with oceanography both to improve our military capability and to reduce over-all costs. It can use the results of oceanographic research in many ways, ranging from the acquisi- tion of information for training exercises to considerations affecting the choice of major weapons systems. The Navy is more concerned with oceanography than is the Army or the Air Force, but all the services have technical and lc~gistic problems that require oceanographic research and development. It is extremely difficult to assess military efficiency in dollars, and thus to assess the value of oceanography to the national defense. Moreover, because knowledge is interrelated, it is hard to separate the contributions of the theoretical physicist or the laboratory experimenter from those of the oceanographer working at sea. While oceanographic research often can permit more effective use of a specific kind of equipment, perhaps its greatest contributions can come in helping to make or alter the design of new weapons systems and in providing the knowledge needed to keep existing weapons systems effective for longer periods of time. To provide perspective, the total size of the Navy and our estimate of the size of its oceanographic program are compared in Table 3. The oceanographic research personnel and budget are just under one per cent of the total Navy effort. The number of oceanographic ships is four 42

OCR for page 21
per cent of the number of Navy Ships, but because of their smaller size and lower per ton cost, they represent only about 0.3 per cent as great an investment. Although these percentages are small, the amount of money and effort spent on oceanography for the Navy is large in absolute terms. An average annual expenditure of about 114 million dollars is planned for the next ten years. It is appropriate to ask whether the Navy is getting its money's worth. TABLE 3 Estimated Size of Navy-Sponsored Oceanographic Program Compared with Total Navy Budget, Personnel, and Ships Navy-Sponsored Per Cent Total Navy Oceanography Oceanography Annual Budget$14,000,000,000 $110,000,000~41' 0.8~/o Total Personnel 660,000 6,000 0.9% Personnel afloat 190,000 1,600 0.8% Number of Ships 960 40 4.0~ Tonnage 7,000,000 33,000 0.5 % Valued $24,000,000,000 $ 80,000,000 0-3~O (a) Based on 50 per cent of the $138 million 1964 ICO budget plus an estimated $41 million for other Navy-sponsored oceanography. (b) Estimated value considering new ships at original price and old ships at l/2 to l/3 price. Average per ton cost: research ships, $2,~00; tugs, minesweepers, etc., $2,000; destroyers and major combat ships, $5,000; and nuclear submarines, 510,000. Of: Ideally, an answer to this question would involve quantitative estimates 1) the amount by which other naval expenditures could be reduced as a result of oceanographic research and the length of time before these savings could be made: 2) the increase . ~ ~ a, in effectiveness of present and future naval weapons systems that could result from likely increases in oceanographic knowledge at different future times; 3) the level of effectiveness of naval weapons systems required to defend the United States from a foreseeable enemy at different future times; and the oceanographic knowledge needed to reach this level of effectiveness; 4) the level of oceanographic research capability required to meet unforeseen military contingencies in which new knowledge of the oceans will be needed; alternative uses of funds and people that might be substituted for present or future oceanographic expenditures in order to provide the required level of effectiveness of naval weapons systems more quickly or less expensively; and the extent to which present and planned naval oceanographic expenditures are meeting the Navy's needs for knowledge of the oceanic environment. Finally, if these needs are not being met, 5) 6) 43

OCR for page 21
what changes in direction, scope, or level of effort in the Navy Oceanographic Program can and should be made? Unfortunately, neither our knowledge of the ocean nor our ability to forecast the potentialities of future weapons systems is sufficient to provide quantitative answers to these questions. More fundamentally, national defense is not a relative, but an absolute necessity. We must spend what- ever is needed to assure our national survival. We cannot take the chance that an enemy will gain knowledge we do not possess, which will enable him to destroy or mortally weaken the weapons systems on which our survival depends. We must be sure, for instance, to be first in learning about any possible mechanisms of energy propagation in the ocean that could be utilized to detect our own Polaris submarines. Although we have not included quantitative benefit-cost ratios for mili- tary applications in this report, it is possible to outline some important military problems in which oceanographic knowledge is necessary for a solution. From this, we can make a rough judgment of the emphasis that the Navy should place on oceanographic research, surveys and development relative to its other expenditures. Submarine Warfare Historically, the principal naval applications of oceanography have been to submarine and antisubmarine warfare. In such warfare, the choice of a particular weapon system and its tactical deployment will often depend on the ocean environment. The balance of power between aggressive submarine forces and oppos- ing antisubmarine forces is determined partly by the relative ability of submerged submarines to remain undetected. The effectiveness of present antisubmarine detection systems is 20 to 80 per cent dependent on the environment. Listening and echo ranging, using underwater sound, are the principal submarine search techniques, and this is likely to remain true for some time. Sound absorption, background noise, and bottom reflectivity are important factors when listening. When echo-ranging, the additional environmental factor of backscattering due to marine life and irregularities in the sea surface and the sea floor must be considered. Sonar Design and Performance Surveys of the seasonal distribution of temperature, salinity, and sound velocity in the water column, and research leading to the ability to forecast changes in underwater "weather" are required to estimate the performance of sonar gear in a particular season and geographic area. Equally important in predicting sonar performance is knowledge of the depth, roughness, and shape of the sea floor, and the acoustical properties of the underlying sediments and rocks. The design of long-range, antisubmarine weapons and the accuracy 44

OCR for page 21
of their fire-control equipment depends on the ability to estimate closely the bending and distortion of sound beams traveling long distances through the ocean. Adequate statistical descriptions of the spectrum of sound- velocity fluctuations in the sea are needed for such estimates. Although there is a wide variability of physical and biological prop- erties in different parts of the ocean and at different times of the year, sonar equipment is normally designed and built for performance under optimum conditions. The operating forces must then be advised as to the expected performance at a particular time and place. Oceanographic information is helpful in judging whether one or several kinds of equipment will be needed to meet an operational requirement. With present sonar equip- ment, certain modes of operations can be used only when ocean conditions are favorable, but where and when such conditions exist is not well known. The electiveness of a billion-dollar antisubmarine force against a billion-dollar submarine force has, in the past, been low. In the future, a brute-force solution to a major submarine threat may be beyond our national limitations. The alternative solution of continually increasing the effectiveness and economy of antisubmarine systems requires that we take every advantage of technological advances, and also of the properties and behavior of the oceans. During the last 20 years, several developments in submarine detection have stemmed from oceanographic research. Polaris Program Many techniques and instruments used by Polaris submarines required oceanographic information for their formulation and design. The sonar, acoustical, and search aspects of Polaris operations are the mirror image of the problems of antisubmarine warfare, with the emphasis on evasion instead of attack. The evasive ability of Polaris submarines is likely to be the principal technical factor in determining how long Polaris remains a valid deterrent system. The applications of oceanographic research should improve the day-to-day capability of the present Polaris system, help extend its useful life, and influence the choice of related systems in the future. ACottstic Ranges Acoustic ranges, if they are to operate as planned, require specialized oceanographic information, both in choosing locations and in selecting and installing equipment. Deep Submerged Operations and Ocean Engineering The tragic loss of THRESHER demonstrates the importance of two requirements based on oceanography and ocean engineering. First is the requirement of knowing more about the areas in which we routinely conduct special tests such as deep dives. For example, at the time of the THRESHER disaster, a violent late-winter storm may have changed drastically the normal current regime near the mouth of the Gulf of Maine. This change, together with internal waves, may have disturbed 45

OCR for page 21
the horizontal distribution of water density enough to have affected THRESHER's ability to maintain depth control. Second, we need to learn how to do many things on the bottom of the ocean in a controlled and systematic way. These include the investiga- tion of accidents, recovery of lost hardware, adjustment or maintenance of bottom equipment, and detailed bottom surveys. The recent report of Navy's Deep Submergence Systems Review Group has brought these problems into focus. An effective effort to improve our deep-water engineering capability will depend, in part, on detailed knowledge of the currents, internal waves, sea-floor topography, bottom sediment and rock characteristics, biology, acoustical properties, and behavior of visible light in the deep sea. Missiles and Space Veh icles The over-water missile-test ranges in the Atlantic and Pacific represent a national investment of several billion dollars. In developing these ranges, the navigational problems required measurements of gravity at sea to calculate the precise location of the down-range islands and monitoring stations. Later, the down-range ships adopted oceanographic acoustical techniques to hold their locations on station. Improvement in the speed and certainty of recovery of missile and space-vehicle components from the oceans would speed development and reduce costs by making it possible to obtain more information per shot. Appreciable future savings would also result if major components could be recovered and reused. The development of recovery technology will require oceanographic knowledge, especially that required by acoustical and other related recovery techniques. As space vehicles grow in size, it may be necessary to transport by and launch them at sea. This will demand better predictions of waves and currents near the surface. Nuclear Weapons Inflicting maximum intentional damage and minimum unintentional damage with nuclear weapons used in, over, or near the ocean will require considerable oceanographic information. Such information may influence the numbers of weapons required, the choice of target, or the time required for safe occupation of an area. Summary This brief review of some of the Navy's problems and the oceano- graphic knowledge needed to help solve them warrants the conclusion that the fraction of one per cent of the Navy's budget being spent for oceano- graphic research has, in the past, and should in the future, contribute much more than one per cent to the economy and effectiveness of the Navy. We believe that the Navy's investment on oceanography is producing favorable economic returns, and that the point of diminishing returns is well above the present level of expenditures. 46