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Summary
Detailed estimates of anticipated benefits are given in other sections of
this report. The following paragraphs summarize some general conclusions.
Numerical estimates of benefits and costs for each area, percentage of bene-
fits attributable to oceanic research, and discounted values are given in
Table 1.
INCREASES IN FISHERIES PRODUCTION
While the catch of U. S. domestic fisheries increased by less than 10
fisheries
per cent during the past decade, a rational development of these
in waters near our shores could result in doubling domestic production
in the next 10 to 15 years. The interests of U. S. companies and individuals
in ocean fisheries at great distances from the United States have grown
very rapidly since World War II, and the rate of growth is accelerating
err .1
_O
11 c1~1s ac;~-elerallon continues, there Could be a tour-iold increase in U. S.
Overseas fisheries by 1974. Both domestic and overseas fisheries depend
for their development upon many things in addition to oceanographic
research. But such research on a continuing basis is essential if the poten-
tial rates of growth are to be realized and maintained.
MARINE MINERALS
There is good reason to believe that the manganese nodules in the
deep sea, the phosphate deposits on oceanic banks and the outer edges
of the continental shelf, and the placer deposits of various minerals on
the inner shelf can all be brought to profitable exploitation within 10
years. Research and surveys on the distribution, extent, and composition
of these sea-floor materials are needed before they can be utilized effec-
tively.
MARINE RECREATION
Surfing, sailing, swimming, sun-bathing, scuba diving, water skiing,
sport fishing, and motorboating are rapidly growing recreational uses of
our shores and marginal seas. At the same time, the near-shore zone is
being used increasingly for disposal of human and industrial wastes, com-
mercial harvesting of marine plants and animals, petroleum production,
as a source of cooling water for electric-power generation, and for various
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. ~
ml. ltary purposes.
Reconciliation of conflicts between recreational and
other uses is an urgent national problem, as is the development of marine
recreational facilities, such as small boat harbors, breakwaters, sandy
beaches, and concentrations of sport fishes.
These tasks demand much
more knowledge of waves, currents, diffusion in estuarine and coastal
waters, and marine biology than we now possess, but the economic return
from this knowledge, when combined with other developments, can be
large. National expenditures for marine recreation will probably increase
by at least $100 million a year over the next two decades.
OCEAN SHIPPING
One of the important ways to save money is to reduce shipborne
transportation costs. At present, the value of U. S. imports plus exports is
about $40 billions a year; it will certainly rise in the future because of
our increasing dependence on overseas sources of minerals, fossil fuels,
wood and paper, and our need to increase exports to ensure economic
growth. l he best estimates are that U. S. foreign trade in oceanic shipping
will rise from the 1959 level of 977 million tons to almost 400 million tons
in 1970, an increase of about 48 per cent. ()ur shipping bill in 1975 will
be around five billion dollars, and the cost of constructing the new ships
needed to carry our growing tonnage will be about $500 million a year.
Oceanographic research can contribute to lowering shipping costs in sev
eral ways.
LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING
Recent meteorological studies show that changes in large-scale weather
patterns over periods of weeks to many years are closely related to changes
in the temperature distribution of the water layers near the surface of the
sea. Because the sea behaves more sluggishly than the air, these observa-
tions indicate that improvements in long-range weather forecasting can
be made through studies of the large-scale interactions between the oceans
and the atmosphere. The present accuracy of long-range forecasting is
low, but if it could be improved, great economic benefits would follow
in such areas as planting and harvesting crops, planning seasonal fuel
transportation and storage, proper timing of building and road construc-
tion, and flood and drought protection. A 50 per cent improvement in
the accuracy of long-range weather forecasting might well produce savings
of two billion dollars a year. This could be accomplished in 15 years.
SEWAGE DISPOSAL
New sewage-treatment plants for o0 million people must be built in
the coastal regions of the United States within the next 30 years. Both the
construction and the operating costs of these plants could be significantly
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reduced if the capaci ty of coastal waters for assimilating and diffusing
the treated effluents were better known. This will require detailed ocean-
ographic study of currents, diffusion, bottom materials, and marine or-
ganisms in estuaries and along open coasts.
INTERNATIONAL (COOPERATION
A separate categorization of the economic benefits of international
oceanographic cooperation is difficult. Through such cooperation, the
knowledge needed for long-range weather forecasting, development of
ocean fisheries on a world-wide basis, improved routing of merchant ves-
sels, and more elective naval operations can be obtained at greatly reduced
cost to the United States. In addition, international oceanographic co-
operation can contribute directly to our programs of technical assistance
to the less-developed countries, by helping them to develop their fisheries,
sea transportation, and other marine resources; and it can lay a foundation
of knowledge for the rational solution of international controversies con
cernlng marine resources.
OCEANOGRAPHY FOR DEFENSE
Oceanic conditions and processes are obviously important to the Navy,
which provides nearly half of the total federal expend) lures for ocean-
ography. This expenditure is less than one per cent of the Navy buclget.
No foreseeable alternative ways of spending the same amount of money
can meet the Navy's needs, and the point of diminishing returns is well
above the present level of expenditures. The effectiveness of the present
Navy can be significantly increased, and the nature of the future Navy
will be appreciably determined by a growing knowledge of the sea.
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
weather forecasting
