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Disaster Study Num her 1 0
Disaster Research Group
Division of Anthropology and Psychology
THE EFFECTS OF A THREATENING RUMOR
ON A DISASTER-STRICKEN COMMUNITY
by
Elliott R. Danzig
Paul W. Thayer
Lila R. Galanter
Prepared for
Federal Civil Defense Administration
and
The Disaster Research Group
I Formerly The Committee on Disaster Studies )
Publication 517
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES-NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
Washington, D. C.
1 958
fit -
/~ EXECUTIVE ~,
A OFFfcE al
Aid.
t13RARY ~
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Library of Cong re s s Catalog
Card No. 57-60052
· -
11
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PREFAC E
As the findings and methodology of disaster research have
developed, it has become increasingly possible and desirable to follow
broad studies of social and psychological phenomena with studies which
focus galore sharply and rigorously on a limited number of hypotheses.
In the research reported in this publication, the investigators ask a
limited number of research questions about a relatively clear-cut situation.
Large numbers of persons evacuated a city when a rumor was circulated
that an upstream dam had burst. How did the rumor originate and how did
it reach the people? What were the factors that determined whether a
person who heard the rumor left town or stayed?
The re suits of the inve stigation of the s e and related que stions add
to a growing body of information on warning and communication in disaster.
These are subjects of intense practical importance to officials and of great
theoretical interest to behavioral scientists.
The study was sponsored jointly by the Federal Civil Defense
Administration and the Committee on Disaste r Studie s and is published
with the approval of FCDA. At the time of the study, the authors were
staff members of the Institute for Research in Human Relations and the
study was a project of that organization. The Committee's share of the
sponsorship was provided from funds supplied by a grant from the Ford
Foundation. It is now published by the Disaster Research Group in
continuation of the publication program initiated by the Committee.
We are grateful to Mr. Charles Gras sey, Director of Civil
Defens e, Port Jervis, N. Y., for providing the map which appear s in the
report.
The issuance of this report does not necessarily imply agreement
by every member of the Committee on Disaster Studies or by the sponsor-
ing agencies with every statement made in the report.
Har ry B . Williams
Technical Director
Disaste r Res ear ch Group
. . .
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The research reported here was made possible through grants
from the Federal Civil Defense Administration and the Committee on
Disaster Studies of the National Academy of Scier~ces-National Research
Council.
Dr. Harry B.
number of helpful ideas
.
Williams suggested this study and offered a
regarding the hypotheses to be tested, as well
as ect~tor~ar improvements in the report.
Mr. Charles Fritz gave us several days of his time ire the
field and contributed nume rous valuabl e sugge sti ons teas ed upon hi s
broad experience in the area of disaster research.
Mr s . P aul W . Thaye r help e d sub st anti ally in the p r ep ar ation
of the codes and the coding procedures.
Dr. Murray Gerstenhaber suggested the game theoretic model
set forth here and reviewed the chapter on this topic.
Mr. James J. Keenan worked continuously during the field
phase of the study on the various administrative details and contrib-
uted valuable ideas related to the ove r all obj e ct. ve s .
Mr. James Moss helped greatly by recruiting interviewers.
Finally, the authors owe special thanks to the various civic
officials of the City of Port Jervis, and especially to the Civil Defense
officials. Without their whole-hearted cooperation, this study would
have been impo s sible .
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