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TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUC TION Page Number CHAPTER I Historical Background 5 CHAPTER II Communication Pattern of the Rumor and Denial 1 1 CHAPTER III Analysis of the Respondent Data 23 CHAPTER IV Interpretations of the Data 51 CHAPTER V Conclusions 77 APPENDIX A Administrative Details of the Study 81 APPENDIX B APPENDIX C APPENDIX D BIBLIOGRAPHY Sampling Methodology.............. C 0 ding Re spondent P r oto cot s . . . . . Demographic Characteristics of the Respondent Sample e · - ~ e · - - ~ . . . V11 91 101 111 115
LIST OF TABLES TAB LE 1 TABLE 2 TABLE 3 TABLE 4 TABLE 5 TABLE 6 Disaster Experience of Re spondents ............. Per cent of Respondents Who Heard False Report and p e r c ent Who Evacuate d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Respondent First Heard False Report......... Location of Respondent When He Heard False Report Activity of Respondent at Time He First Heard False Report .................................. Lo cation of Re spondent' s F amity When He He ard Page 25 26 27 28 29 False Report 29 TABLE 7 Exposure to Sirens and Other Noise 30 TABLE 8 Source and Channel of Verbal Threat Messages 32 TABLE 9 Belief in the False Report 33 TABLE 10 Respondent's Estimate of Danger 34 TABLE 1 1 Estimated Danger - Flooded and Non-flooded Group s 34 TABLE 12 Respondents' Estimates of Time to Inundation 35 TABLE 13 Respondents Seeking to Confirm Threat Messages 36 TABLE 14 Major Source of Confirmation 36 TABLE 15 Major Confirmation Channel 37 TABLE 16 Attempts to Assist Other Community Members 38 TABLE 17 Reports of Others Fleeing, and Their Relation to Respondents' Own Behavior 39 TABLE 18 Nature of Flight 40 TABLE 19 Materials Respondents Planned to Take in Flight TABLE 20 TABLE 21 and Its Relation to Prior Preparation. . Number of Denial s He ard by Re spondents ~ Number of Sources of Denial and Number of Denial 41 43 Sources Before Belief 43 TABLE 22 Source and Channel of Denial Messages ·---~-~-~-. 44 TABLE 23 Respondents' Actions Upon Receipt of Denial 46 TABLE 24 Attitude Toward Civil Defense Agency 47 TIBIA 25 Attitude Toward Disaster Groups 48 TABLE 26 Relationship Between Area of Residence and Estimate of Danger . ..... . .. . ..... . .. . 5 1 TABLE 27 Relationship Between Responsibilities and Confirmation Attempts TABL`E 28 Relationship Between Area of Residence and Denial Communications . ~ TABLE 2 9 Credibility of Denial Source s ~ 1X 54 56
L`IST OF TABLES (Continued) TABLE 3 0 TABLE 3 1 TAl3LE 32 TABLE 3 3 Relative Credibility of Official Sources of Denial. . Relation ship B etwe en Immediacy of Thr eat and Confirmation Attempts........................ Relationship Between Dange r Estimate s and Ccnfirmation Attempts......................... Relationship Between Danger Estimates and Page · · - 57 59 60 Flight Behavior . . . . e ~ ~ e ~ e ~ ~ e ~ e e ~ e ~ ~ ~6 0 TABLE 34 Variables Related to Flight Behavior e ~ e e~ e ~ e e ~ ~ ~62 TA:BLE 35 Variables Not Shown to be Related to Flight Behavior ~ e e ~ ~ e e e e e e e e ~ e ~ e ~ ~ e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e ~ e e 6 3 TABLE 36 Relationship Between Sex and Flight Behavior 64 TABLE 37 Relationship Between Sex and Denial Source Le acing to B elief . e e e ~ e ~ e ~ ~ e ~ e e e ~ ~ e e ~ e ~ ~ ~6 4 APP ENDIX C TABLE A P e rc ent Initial Agr cement of Code r s . . e e e APP ENDIX D ~ e e e e ~ e e ~1 03 TABLE A Age of Respondent 111 TABLE B Socio-ecor~omic Status e e e ~ ~ e ~ ~ e e ~ ~ ~ e e e ~ e e ~ ~ ~1 1 1 TABLE C Schooling 111 TABLE D Ler~gth of Re sidence in P ort Je rvi s e ~ e ~ e e ~ e ~ e ~ ~ ~ ~ e e 1 1 1 TABLE E Number in Household . e e ~ e ~ ~ ~ e ~ e ~ ~ e e e e e e ~ e ~ ~ ~ ~ e e ~1 12 TABLE F Presence of Automobile and Telephone in Household 112 TABLE G Content of Threat Messages e e e e e e e e e ~ e e ~ ~ ~ e e e e e e e 1 12 TAl3LE H Content of Denial Messages . e e ~ e e ~ ~ e e ~ ~ ~ e e ~ e e ~ ~ e ~1 1 3 x
UsI oF is Page PLATTE I Map of Port Jervis, New York ................... PLAI ~ II S chemati c Cha at of O Hi cial and Non-of~ cial Communi call ons Network 13 [~ I OF FICORES FIGURE Fluff Fluff 68 71 73
