Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter.
Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page 6
Introduction
OVERVIEW
An important instrument of U.S. national security and foreign
policy is the set of legal controls on what can be exported to certain
countries, particularly those in the Council for Mutual Economic As-
sistance (CMEA, including the USSR, other Warsaw Pact nations,
Viet Nam, Cuba, and Mongolia).i The controls have been put in
place by the United States and other countries within the Coordinat-
ing Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (CoCom, including
Japan and all the member nations of the North AtIantic Treaty
Organization [NATO] except Iceland). They are intended to pro-
tect military advantages arising from superior technology in CoCom
countries. Export controls cannot prevent Western technology from
passing to CMEA countries, because some technology can be and
is transferred through both illegal and legal channels (e.g., through
countries acting outside of the CoCom control framework). But at
a minimum, controls are a potent means of slowing the pace and
raising the cost of technology transfer from CoCom to CMEA.
iFor a broad examination of national security export controls and their ramifi-
cations, see the Allen Report (Panel on the Impact of National Security Controls on
International Technology Transfer, Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Pol-
icy, 1987~.
6
OCR for page 7
INTROD ACTION
7
Computer technologies are prominent among controlled tech-
nologies. The U.S. Department of State estimates that some 50
percent of applications to export under the CoCom control regime
involve the export of computer technologies. This situation reflects
the fact that computers are becoming pervasive in CoCom countries,
where they are creating enormous economic as well as military ben-
efits. Meanwhile, political and economic relations among countries
within and between ad regions of the world are changing, stimulat-
ing international technology transfer through a variety of commercial
and other means. Markets for the computer products of CoCom and
other non-CMEA countries are growing, and so is competition among
countries to serve those markets. Technical, market, and geopolitical
factors combine to make an inquiry into computer technology trends
timely.
The interrelated development of computer technologies and their
markets poses a dilemma for policymakers, namely, how can transfer
of these technologies be controlled for national security purposes with-
out retarding innovation and commercial development in the field?
The problem is complex and multidisciplinary, but important in-
sights can be gained from an examination of how computer technol-
ogy is evolving in different parts of the world. The Committee to
Study International Developments in Computer Science and Tech-
nology was commissioned by the Department of State to conduct
such an examination, and this is its final report.
The report addresses the supply of computer technology and how
it is evolving. As such, it complements the efforts of other parties
concerned with exports of computer technology. The most vigor-
ous such efforts come from the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD)
and the intelligence community, which study computer technology
trends from a clemand perspective: they focus on computer tech-
nology needed for U.S., CoCom, and CMEA military systems (see,
for example, Technology Transfer Assessment Center tTTAC], 1988~.
While demand-oriented analyses are fundamental to the CoCom con-
trol effort, they present only part of the picture.
ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT
The report consists of a set of individual technology assess-
ments focusing on conditions in CoCom countries, an assessment of
computing in CMEA countries, and a culminating presentation of
OCR for page 8
8
GL OBA L TRENDS IN COMP UTER TE CHNOL O G Y
conclusions and recommendations. The chapter organization is as
follows:
Computer Hardware Chapter 2
Manufacturing of Computer Systems Chapter 3
Software- Chapter 4
Computer Networks Chapter 5
Computing in CMEA Countries Chapter 6
Conclusions and Recommendations Chapter 7
The term "technology" is used to represent not only tangible
products but also know-how and processes. Chapters 2 through 5
concentrate on the state of the art and anticipated developments.
They are intended in part to illuminate technologies that will be-
come increasingly available in or sought by non-CoCom countries
during the next few years. Each of these chapters outlines technol-
ogy trends, major players, potential breakthroughs, and prospects
for protectability. The discussion of computers in CMEA countries
in Chapter 6 concentrates on available technology; it is particularly
difficult to ascertain what is under development in those countries.
The report addresses the needs of two different types of readers
concerned with export controls: policymakers (including government
officials and business executives) and technology analysts. The ma-
terial in Chapters 2 through 5 is aimed at technology analysts; a
glossary is provided to explain terms and acronyms for nontechni-
cal readers (see Appendix F). Chapter 6 combines technical and
politicoeconomic analyses of conditions in CMEA countries, and its
technical discussions are extensive. Chapter 7 should be read by
everyone interested in the report's subject matter; it synthesizes and
builds on the material presented in the preceding chapters.
FO CUS AND [IMITATIONS
The committee addressed the broad spectrum of computer tech-
nologies, but focused on selected elements and trends in selected
countries; selection was necessary because of the limited time and
resources available to the committee. Although a broad international
perspective was attempted, much of the discussion centers on trends
in the United States and the USSR. Conditions are described in
several countries in the Far East, Western Europe, and the CMEA
bloc, especially for technologies in which those countries are partic-
ularly strong. Even had greater resources been available, however,
OCR for page 9
INTROD UCTION
9
the committee could not have overcome the fact that comprehen-
sive, up-to-date, and reliable data covering ah aspects of computer
science and technology in a] countries were not available to it and
may not even exist. Nevertheless, the committee extended its in-
quiry beyond the requested focus on advanced Western nations and
CMEA countries to consider some developments in newly industri-
aTizing countries; in the computer area, the conventional East-West
dichotomy does not adequately reflect the dynamics involved.
The committee recognized that export control policy decisions
are informed by a variety of considerations. its report was designed
to contribute to those decisions by illuminating what computer tech-
nology trends imply for how the control effort should be directed.
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
On the basis of its technical evaluations, the committee identi-
fied a number of cross-cutting issues for consideration in reassessing
export controls for computer technologies. It is useful to group the
issues under four broad questions:
1. How is computer technology itself evolving?
2. What is the global impact of computer science and technology
as it evolves in different countries?
3. What is the intrinsic controllability of computer technology,
in particularfor those elements that are valued and desired by CMEA
countries?
4. What are the technological, economic, and political impacts of
attempts to control exports of computer science and technology, and
how should they be balanced against impacts on national security?
Issues fading under each question and subsidiary questions are
outlined briefly below to provide some perspective on the technical
assessments and conclusions of the report. That some of the issues
fad under more than one question illustrates the complexity of the
problem at hand.
The Evolution of Computer Technology
Trends and Pace
The central issue in computer science and technology is the pace
of technological change. That pace reflects a combination of numer-
ous and frequent incremental changes (e.g., further miniaturization of
OCR for page 10
10
GL OBAL TRENDS IN COMP UTER TECHN~OL OG Y
circuitry) and occasional breakthroughs. How can control programs
keep abreast of technologies characterized by rapid innovation? What
are the preconditionsfor innovation? Where is innovation most likely
to occur and what are its sources ?
Interdependencies
Computer systems tend to be composed of many modules and
subsystems that are interrelated or layered on top of each other.
Some elements are more important than others in terms of the ca-
pability they provide to the user and, therefore, their relevance to
national security. What do interdependencies imply for the valuation
of individual elements of computer technology for purposes of control
strategy ?
Commoditization
A growing number of computer technologies have become widely
available, inexpensive, and in many cases substitutable, and the
trend will only accelerate. Such technologies are commonly called
commodities, to underscore how easy they are to obtain. Which
computer technologies should be considered commodities? Row is the
pool of commodity technology changing, and at what rate? To what
extent do computer technologies regarded as commodities tend to be
subject to standardization, de facto or otherwise ? How floes commodi-
tization affect market development and the health of the U.S. computer
sector ? What does commoditization imply for controlia bility ?
Stan(lards
Technical standards facilitate the spread of computer technology,
although they can also slow movement toward new but nonconform-
ing—technologies. How does the presence or absence of standards af-
fect the rate, direction, and location of computer technology change
among the various elements? How does the stanclar~l-setting pro-
cess which is typically international and characterizes! by openness
because standards must be published to be effective also affect those
variables? How does standardization affect market development? How
floes standardization affect controllability of computer technology?
OCR for page 11
INTROD ACTION
Globalization
11
Global Impact of Computer Technology
Computer technology today still draws heavily on theory and
products that originated in the United States, but it has become
increasingly global. Availability of computer technology to for-
eign countries—a key factor shaping any control effort—is growing.
Where do innovations tend to occur, and how is the geographic inci-
dence changing? What does it mean to be a world leader in computer
technology, and how sustainahie is leadership? How broadly dis-
tributefd is computer technology production, and where are the major
centers of production? How has glo~oalization shaped concerns about
U.~. computer competitiveness, and what do these concerns imply for
controls? In view of glo~oalization, what new challenges in foreign
relations emerge that impinge on control efforts?
-a rim
Ab sorb ability
-an
The value of computer technology to a country depends on how
easily and effectively it can be absorbed. How easily and effectively
has computer technology been absorbed into CMEA economies for
civilian and military use? What is the linkage between civilian and
military use of computer technology, and on what does it dNepend?
What are the prerequisites for effective use of computer technology,
and to what degree do they exist in CMEA countries? What does
absorba~oility imply for controls?
Conditions in CMEA Countries
The CMEA countries are the principal targets of existing export
controls. What are the indigenous computer capabilities of CMEA
countries? How are those capabilities likely to change? What has
been the history of computer technology transfer from CoCom to
CMEA nations? How have export controls affecter! the development
of computer science and technology in CMEA countries?
Military Importance
Computers have made and will continue to make major contribu-
tions to national security, sometimes through commercially available
technology and often through special systems specific to military
applications. Tow close are military and civilian functionality for
OCR for page 12
12
GL OBAL TRENDS IN COMP UTER TECHNOL OG Y
computer technologies? How easily can civilian applications be con-
verted to military ones? How does purely civilian development and
use of computer technology affect military capabilities? What is the
impact of the separation of military and commercial technology de-
velopment on the U.S. computer industry in particular and on the
development of computer technology overall?
Intrinsic Controllability
Protectability
Technologies chider in their intrinsic amenability to control ef-
forts. What are the factors that make technology difficult or easy
to control? How do these factors apply to different computer-related
technologies? Bow do computer technology trends affect the control-
[abiiity of these technologies?
Interdependencies
The different pieces of a computer system vary in the ease with
which they can be controlled. Are there a few pieces that, if con-
trolled carefully, would in effect result in control over whole computer
systems? How do computer technology interdependencies affect mar-
ket structure and the availability of computer technology to foreign
countries? Have the breadth and complexity of computer technology
advanced so milch that they militate against a broad-based control
system ?
Transfer Mechanisms
The global spread of computer technology is achieved by many
means, of which exports are only one. How important a means of
technology transfer are exports? Should other transfer mechanisms be
a source of equal or even greater concern?
Impacts of Controls
Definitions
The rapid pace of technological change poses problems for the
export control process. Control programs must identify and define
what is and is not subject to controls. Given that administration and
enforcement would benefitirom precise definitions, how can computer
OCR for page 13
INTROD ACTION
13
technologies be cleaned wit ~ sufficient flexibility to reject changes in
technical qualities and availability? How can current technologies be
distinguished from emerging technologies for purposes of control?
Military Importance
Export controls are intended to help keep militarily significant
technologies from the West's adversaries. Have controls succeeded in
meeting that goal? How easily can the military criticality of computer
technology be identified? How much dfo computer technologies vary in
their relevance to national security, especially from the perspective of
military criticality?
Competitiveness
Controls are both meaningful and controversial today because
the United States has technologies worth protecting, technologies
that people in other countries want to obtain. The ability of this
country to continue to generate such technologies depends on the
competitiveness of the U.S. computer sector, which in turn depends
on many other factors. How do controls Allot the ability of U.S.
computer companies to compete in world markets? Do controls vary
in their impact on the U.S. computer sector? How can the interests
of national security and industrial health he balanced most effectively
in the area of export controls?
***
The committee makes no pretense of answering ah of the above
questions. In the course of its report, the committee addresses most
of the above issues to varying clegrees. Some are raised in the tech-
nology assessment chapters. Others, building on deliberations of the
committee about the report as a whole, are addressed primarily in
the conclusions in Chapter 7. Subsumed in much of the discussion
is concern about the competitiveness of the U.S. computer sector
and the possibility that some approaches to export control are more
harmful to competitiveness than others. This was a strong concern
within the committee, and it is one that cads for further, explicit
study.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
cmea countries
