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OCR for page R11
Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION Overview, 6 Organization of the Report, 7 Focus and Limitations, Cross-Cutting Issues, 9 The Evolution of Computer Technology, 9 Trends and Pace, 9 Interdependencies, 10 Commoditization, 10 Standards, 10 Global Impact of Computer Technology, 11 Globalization, 11 Absorbability, 11 Conditions in CMEA Countries, 11 Military Importance, 11 Intrinsic Controllability, 12 Protectability, 12 Interdependencies, 12 Transfer Mechanisms Impacts of Controls, 12 Definitions, 12 , 12 X1 1 6

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X11 Military Importance, 13 Competitiveness, 13 2 HARDWARE Introduction, 14 Base Technologies, 15 Semiconductor Device en c! Component Technologies, 15 Dynamic Random Access Memory Components, IS Static Random Access Memory Components, 16 Application-Specific Integrated Circuits, 17 Potential Breakthroughs, 17 Leading Industry Players, 18 Interconnect Technologies, 19 Potential Breakthroughs, 20 I`eading Industry Players, 20 Mass Data Storage, 20 Major Technology Trends, 21 Disk and Tape Components, 21 Solid-State Technology, 22 Optical Technology, 24 Electronic Technology, 25 Magnetic Technology, 25 Potential Breakthroughs, 25 Magneto-Optical Technology, 25 Vertical Recording, 26 Josephson Junction Technology, 26 Leading Industry Players, 27 Protectability of Base Technologies Overall, 28 Protectability of Data Storage Technology, 29 Supercomputers, 31 Major Technology Trends, 34 Software, 35 Hardware, 36 Networks, 37 Leading Industry Players, 37 The United States, 37 Private Industry, 37 The Federal Government, 39 Japan, 39 Protectability, 40 Diversion-in-Place, 42 CONTENTS 14

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CONTENTS Scientific Computers, 42 Commercial Machines, 43 Overall Disposition of Supercomputers, 44 Novel ParaHel Processors, 44 Major Technology Trends, 46 Leading Industry Players, 47 Protectability, 48 Workstations, Minicomputers, and Multiprocessors, 49 Major Technology Trends, 49 Uniprocessor Trends, 49 Multiprocessor Trends, 52 Potential Breakthroughs, 52 Leading Industry Players, 53 Protectability, 53 Personal Computers and Microcomputers, 54 Major Technology Trends, 54 Leading Industry Players, 58 Protectability, 60 Synthesis, 61 Conclusions, 62 . . . x~ 3 MANUFACTURING OF COMPUTER SYSTEMS 64 Introduction, 64 Importance of Manufacturing, 65 Semiconductor Manufacture, 66 Major Technology Trends, 67 Wafer Size, 67 Lower Temperature Processing, 67 Planarization, 67 Automation, 68 Wafer Fabrication Equipment, 68 Wafer Fabrication Equipment, 68 Major Technology Trends and Leading Industry Players, 69 Mask Generation, 69 Microlithography, 69 Resist Technology, 70 Metrology, 70 Diffusion and Oxidation, 70 Ton Implantation, 70 Etching and Cleaning, 71

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XIV CONTENTS Deposition, 71 Testing, 72 Electronic CAD, 72 Major Technology Trends, 72 Leading Industry Players, 74 Mass Storage, 75 Major Technology Trends, 75 Packaging Technology, 77 Major Technology Trends, 77 Implications of Future Technologies, 78 Packaging Issues, 80 leading Industry Players, 82 Conclusions, 82 SOFTWARE Major Technology Trends, 84 Commodity Market, 84 Standard Interfaces, 86 Software Components, 87 Development Tools, 87 Distributed Systems, 88 International Software, 88 Integrated Systems, 88 Artificial Intelligence, 90 Breakthrough Possibilities, 91 Concurrent Programming, 91 Formal Techniques, 92 Nonprocedural Languages, 93 Major Industry Players, 94 United States, 94 Japan, 96 Western Europe, 97 Other Countries, 98 Is the United States Inherently Superior?, 99 Protectability, 100 Denial of Source Code, 101 Denial of Hardware, 103 Protection of Software by Class, 103 Encryption, 104 Summary of Protectability, 105 Conclusions, 105 83

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CONTENTS COMPUTER NETWORKS Introduction, 107 Major Technology Trends, 109 Standard Peer Protocols, 109 A Simple Protocol Analog, 110 DOD Versus ISO Protocol Standards, 111 OS] Protocol Profiles, ~ 13 Advanced Research in Protocols, 114 Computer Network Management, 114 Public Computer Network Services, 115 Breakthrough Possibilities, 117 Product Innovation, 117 Production Technology, 118 Leading Industry Players, 118 Protectability, 119 C amp ut er N etwork S e curity, 119 Basic Vulnerability, 119 Legal and Institutional Trends, 120 Security Technical Standards, 120 Cryptography, 121 Data Encryption Standard, 122 Public Key Cryptography, 122 Smart Cards: An Example of a Lost Network Security Business, 122 DOD Security Requirements at Odds with ISO, 123 U.S. Industry Resistance, 123 Conclusions, 124 6 COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY IN THE SOVIET UNION AND OTHER CMEA COUNTRIES The Soviet Computing Industry, 127 Base Computing Technologies, 132 Component Technologies, Microelectronics, and Manufacturing, 132 High-Speed Computers, 139 Mainframes, 144 Minicomputers, 149 Microcomputers and Personal Computers, 156 Systems and Applications Software, 161 Operating Systems, 165 Programming Languages, 167 xv 107 126

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XVI Database Management Systems, 170 Software Tools and Environments, 172 Security, 174 Economic Management Applications Software, 174 Scientific and Engineering Software, 178 Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems, 179 Large-Scale Real-Time Systems, 180 Computer Networks, 180 The Influence of Perestroika on Soviet Computing, 185 Perestroika and the Demand for Computing, 187 Cooperatives, 189 Perestroika and Internal Sources of Supply, 191 Changing Inputs to the Computer Industry, 192 New Players in the Industry, 195 Changing Incentives for Computer Suppliers, 199 Improving Quality Control, 201 Perestroika and Foreign Sources of Supply, 202 Soviet Trade and Industrial Cooperation, 205 Perestroika and Soviet Internal Constraints, 211 Conclusions, 213 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Overview, 218 Difficulties in Controlling Technical Trends, 219 Recommendation 1, 223 Recommendation 2,224 Recommendation 3,226 Technologies As More Than Products, 227 Commercial Vitality Essential for Technical Vitality, 228 Recommendation 4,230 Recommendation 5, 231 The Expansion of Computer Technology Supply in Non-CoCom Countries, 232 Recommendation 6,232 Recommendation 7,234 Prospects for CMEA, 234 Specific Conclusions on Technology Assessments, 237 Hardware, 237 Software, 238 Manufacturing, 239 Computer Networks, 240 The CMEA Countries, 240 CONTENTS 218

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CONTENTS APPENDIXES A Semiconductor Device Technologies B Toward Computer-Tntegrated Manufacturing C European Projects D Additional Data on Supercomputers E Packaging Technologies in Japan F Glossary G References . . XV11 245 250 255 258 261 265 276

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