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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 INTRODUCTION
Overview, 6
Organization of the Report, 7
Focus and Limitations,
Cross-Cutting Issues, 9
The Evolution of Computer Technology, 9
Trends and Pace, 9
Interdependencies, 10
Commoditization, 10
Standards, 10
Global Impact of Computer Technology, 11
Globalization, 11
Absorbability, 11
Conditions in CMEA Countries, 11
Military Importance, 11
Intrinsic Controllability, 12
Protectability, 12
Interdependencies, 12
Transfer Mechanisms
Impacts of Controls, 12
Definitions, 12
, 12
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Military Importance, 13
Competitiveness, 13
2 HARDWARE
Introduction, 14
Base Technologies, 15
Semiconductor Device en c! Component Technologies, 15
Dynamic Random Access Memory Components, IS
Static Random Access Memory Components, 16
Application-Specific Integrated Circuits, 17
Potential Breakthroughs, 17
Leading Industry Players, 18
Interconnect Technologies, 19
Potential Breakthroughs, 20
I`eading Industry Players, 20
Mass Data Storage, 20
Major Technology Trends, 21
Disk and Tape Components, 21
Solid-State Technology, 22
Optical Technology, 24
Electronic Technology, 25
Magnetic Technology, 25
Potential Breakthroughs, 25
Magneto-Optical Technology, 25
Vertical Recording, 26
Josephson Junction Technology, 26
Leading Industry Players, 27
Protectability of Base Technologies Overall, 28
Protectability of Data Storage Technology, 29
Supercomputers, 31
Major Technology Trends, 34
Software, 35
Hardware, 36
Networks, 37
Leading Industry Players, 37
The United States, 37
Private Industry, 37
The Federal Government, 39
Japan, 39
Protectability, 40
Diversion-in-Place, 42
CONTENTS
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CONTENTS
Scientific Computers, 42
Commercial Machines, 43
Overall Disposition of Supercomputers, 44
Novel ParaHel Processors, 44
Major Technology Trends, 46
Leading Industry Players, 47
Protectability, 48
Workstations, Minicomputers, and Multiprocessors, 49
Major Technology Trends, 49
Uniprocessor Trends, 49
Multiprocessor Trends, 52
Potential Breakthroughs, 52
Leading Industry Players, 53
Protectability, 53
Personal Computers and Microcomputers, 54
Major Technology Trends, 54
Leading Industry Players, 58
Protectability, 60
Synthesis, 61
Conclusions, 62
. . .
x~
3 MANUFACTURING OF COMPUTER SYSTEMS 64
Introduction, 64
Importance of Manufacturing, 65
Semiconductor Manufacture, 66
Major Technology Trends, 67
Wafer Size, 67
Lower Temperature Processing, 67
Planarization, 67
Automation, 68
Wafer Fabrication Equipment, 68
Wafer Fabrication Equipment, 68
Major Technology Trends and Leading Industry
Players, 69
Mask Generation, 69
Microlithography, 69
Resist Technology, 70
Metrology, 70
Diffusion and Oxidation, 70
Ton Implantation, 70
Etching and Cleaning, 71
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CONTENTS
Deposition, 71
Testing, 72
Electronic CAD, 72
Major Technology Trends, 72
Leading Industry Players, 74
Mass Storage, 75
Major Technology Trends, 75
Packaging Technology, 77
Major Technology Trends, 77
Implications of Future Technologies, 78
Packaging Issues, 80
leading Industry Players, 82
Conclusions, 82
SOFTWARE
Major Technology Trends, 84
Commodity Market, 84
Standard Interfaces, 86
Software Components, 87
Development Tools, 87
Distributed Systems, 88
International Software, 88
Integrated Systems, 88
Artificial Intelligence, 90
Breakthrough Possibilities, 91
Concurrent Programming, 91
Formal Techniques, 92
Nonprocedural Languages, 93
Major Industry Players, 94
United States, 94
Japan, 96
Western Europe, 97
Other Countries, 98
Is the United States Inherently Superior?, 99
Protectability, 100
Denial of Source Code, 101
Denial of Hardware, 103
Protection of Software by Class, 103
Encryption, 104
Summary of Protectability, 105
Conclusions, 105
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CONTENTS
COMPUTER NETWORKS
Introduction, 107
Major Technology Trends, 109
Standard Peer Protocols, 109
A Simple Protocol Analog, 110
DOD Versus ISO Protocol Standards, 111
OS] Protocol Profiles, ~ 13
Advanced Research in Protocols, 114
Computer Network Management, 114
Public Computer Network Services, 115
Breakthrough Possibilities, 117
Product Innovation, 117
Production Technology, 118
Leading Industry Players, 118
Protectability, 119
C amp ut er N etwork S e curity, 119
Basic Vulnerability, 119
Legal and Institutional Trends, 120
Security Technical Standards, 120
Cryptography, 121
Data Encryption Standard, 122
Public Key Cryptography, 122
Smart Cards: An Example of a Lost Network
Security Business, 122
DOD Security Requirements at Odds with ISO, 123
U.S. Industry Resistance, 123
Conclusions, 124
6 COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY IN THE SOVIET
UNION AND OTHER CMEA COUNTRIES
The Soviet Computing Industry, 127
Base Computing Technologies, 132
Component Technologies, Microelectronics, and
Manufacturing, 132
High-Speed Computers, 139
Mainframes, 144
Minicomputers, 149
Microcomputers and Personal Computers, 156
Systems and Applications Software, 161
Operating Systems, 165
Programming Languages, 167
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Database Management Systems, 170
Software Tools and Environments, 172
Security, 174
Economic Management Applications Software, 174
Scientific and Engineering Software, 178
Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems, 179
Large-Scale Real-Time Systems, 180
Computer Networks, 180
The Influence of Perestroika on Soviet Computing, 185
Perestroika and the Demand for Computing, 187
Cooperatives, 189
Perestroika and Internal Sources of Supply, 191
Changing Inputs to the Computer Industry, 192
New Players in the Industry, 195
Changing Incentives for Computer Suppliers, 199
Improving Quality Control, 201
Perestroika and Foreign Sources of Supply, 202
Soviet Trade and Industrial Cooperation, 205
Perestroika and Soviet Internal Constraints, 211
Conclusions, 213
7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Overview, 218
Difficulties in Controlling Technical Trends, 219
Recommendation 1, 223
Recommendation 2,224
Recommendation 3,226
Technologies As More Than Products, 227
Commercial Vitality Essential for Technical Vitality, 228
Recommendation 4,230
Recommendation 5, 231
The Expansion of Computer Technology Supply
in Non-CoCom Countries, 232
Recommendation 6,232
Recommendation 7,234
Prospects for CMEA, 234
Specific Conclusions on Technology Assessments, 237
Hardware, 237
Software, 238
Manufacturing, 239
Computer Networks, 240
The CMEA Countries, 240
CONTENTS
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CONTENTS
APPENDIXES
A Semiconductor Device Technologies
B Toward Computer-Tntegrated Manufacturing
C European Projects
D Additional Data on Supercomputers
E Packaging Technologies in Japan
F Glossary
G References
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