The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture

Committee on the Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture

Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources

and

Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology

Commission on Life Sciences

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture Committee on the Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources and Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Commission on Life Sciences National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been prepared with funds provided by the US Department of Agriculture under grant number, 59-0700-5-119, Environmental Protection Agency under contract number 6W-1187-NANX, and the National Research Council. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The future role of pesticides in US agriculture / Committee on the Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources and Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, Commission on Life Sciences. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references (p. ). ISBN 0-309-06526-7 (case bound) 1. Pesticides--United States. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture. II. National Research Council (U.S.). Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology. III. Title. SB950.2.A1 F88 2000 632'.95'0973--dc21 00-011245 Additional copies of this report are available fromNational Academy Press , 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu The illustration to the left, a corn earworm moth, Heliothis zea, was created by Alice Prickett of Urbana, Illinois, and was adapted for the image on the cover of this book. Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE ROLE OF PESTICIDES IN US AGRICULTURE MAY BERENBAUM, Chair, Department of Entomology, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois MARK BRUSSEAU, Department Soil, Water, and Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona JOSEPH DIPIETRO, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida ROBERT GOODMAN, Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin FRED GOULD, Department of Entomology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina JEFFREY GUNSOLUS, Department of Agronomy and Plant Genetics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota BRUCE HAMMOCK, Department of Entomology, University of California, Davis, California ROLF HARTUNG, Environmental Toxicology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (Retired) PAMELA MARRONE, AgraQuest, Inc., Davis, California BRUCE MAXWELL, Department of Plant, Soil, and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana KENNETH RAFFA, Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin JOHN RYALS, Paradigm Genetics, Inc., Cary, North Carolina DALE SHANER, American Cyanamid, Princeton, New Jersey *JAMES SEIBER, Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering and Department of Environmental Resource Sciences, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada DAVID ZILBERMAN, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California Consultant ERIK LICHTENBERG, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland Staff Kim Waddell, Project Director Mary Jane Letaw, Project Director (through September 11, 1999) Heather Christiansen, Research Associate Karen Imhof, Project Assistant *Resigned December, 1998 after changing affiliation to USDA-ARS

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES HARLEY W. MOON, Chair, Iowa State University DAVID H. BAKER, University of Illinois *SANDRA S. BATIE Department of Agricultural Economics Michigan State University East Lansing, Michigan MAY R. BERENBAUM, University of Illinois *ANTHONY S. EARL Quarles & Brady Law Firm, Madison, Wisconsin *ESSEX E. FINNEY, JR. Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Mitchellville, Maryland (retired) CORNELIA B. FLORA, Iowa State University ROBERT T. FRALEY, Monsanto Company, St. Louis, Missouri ROBERT B. FRIDLEY, University of California W. R. (REG) GOMES, University of California PERRY R. HAGENSTEIN, Institute for Forest Analysis, Planning, and Policy, Wayland, Massachusetts GEORGE R. HALLBERG, The Cadmus Group, Inc., Waltham, Massachusetts *RICHARD R. HARWOOD Crop and Soil Sciences Department, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan *T. KENT KIRK Chair, Department of Bacteriology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin CALESTOUS JUMA, Harvard University GILBERT A. LEVEILLE, McNeil Consumer Healthcare, Denville, New Jersey WHITNEY MACMILLAN, Cargill, Inc., Minneapolis, Minnesota (retired) WILLIAM L. OGREN, US Department of Agriculture (retired) NANCY J. RACHMAN, International Life Science Institute, Washington, D.C. G. EDWARD SCHUH, University of Minnesota JOHN W. SUTTIE, University of Wisconsin THOMAS N. URBAN, Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc., Des Moines, Iowa ROBERT P. WILSON, Mississippi State University JAMES J. ZUICHES, Washington State University Staff Warren Muir, Executive Director Myron F. Uman, Acting Executive Director (through May 1999) David L. Meeker, Director (since March 2000) Charlotte Kirk Baer, Associate Director Shirley Thatcher, Administrative Assistant *Through December 1999

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY GORDON ORIANS, Chair, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington DONALD MATTISON, Vice Chair, March of Dimes, White Plains, New York DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas INGRID C. BURKE, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia JOHN DOULL, University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City, Kansas CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, California JOHN GERHART, University of California, Berkeley, California J. PAUL GILMAN, Celera Genomics, Rockville, Maryland BRUCE D. HAMMOCK, University of California, Davis, California MARK HARWELL, University of Miami, Miami, Florida ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico CAROL HENRY, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia BARBARA HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina JAMES F. KITCHELL, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario JAMES A. MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan, Utah MARIO J. MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts CHARLES O'MELIA, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland WILLEM F. PASSCHIER, Health Council of the Netherlands KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley, California MARGARET STRAND, Oppenheimer Wolff Donnelly & Bayh, LLP, Washington, DC TERRY F. YOSIE, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia Senior Staff James J. Reisa, Director David J. Policansky, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied Ecology Carol A. Maczka, Senior Program Director for Toxicology and Risk Assessment Raymond A. Wassel, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering Kulbir Bakshi, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology Lee R. Paulson, Program Director for Resource Management Roberta M. Wedge, Program Director for Risk Analysis

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture COMMISSION ON LIFE SCIENCES MICHAEL T. CLEGG, Chair, University of California, Riverside, California PAUL BERG, Vice Chair, Stanford University, Stanford, California FREDERICK R. ANDERSON, Cadwalader, Wickersham and Taft, Washington, D.C. JOANNA BURGER, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey JAMES E. CLEAVER, University of California, San Francisco, California DAVID S. EISENBERG, University of California, Los Angeles, California JOHN L. EMMERSON, Fishers, Indiana NEAL L. FIRST, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin DAVID J. GALAS, Keck Graduate Institute of Applied Life Science, Claremont, California DAVID V. GOEDDEL, Tularik, Inc., South San Francisco, California ARTURO GOMEZ -POMPA, University of California, Riverside, California COREY S. GOODMAN, University of California, Berkeley, California JON W. GORDON, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, New York DAVID G. HOEL, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, South Carolina BARBARA S. HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina CYNTHIA J. KENYON, University of California, San Francisco, California BRUCE R. LEVIN, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia DAVID M. LIVINGSTON, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts DONALD R. MATTISON, March of Dimes, White Plains, New York ELLIOT M. MEYEROWITZ, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California ROBERT T. PAINE, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington RONALD R. SEDEROFF, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina ROBERT R. SOKAL, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York CHARLES F. STEVENS, The Salk Institute for Biological Studies, La Jolla, California SHIRLEY M. TILGHMAN, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey RAYMOND L. WHITE, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah Staff Warren R. Muir, Executive Director Jacqueline K. Prince, Financial Officer Barbara B. Smith, Administrative Associate Laura T. Holliday, Senior Program Assistant

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture Preface Predicting the future would appear to be an inherently unscientific process; there are few opportunities for constructing falsifiable hypotheses and testing them, short of waiting until the future actually becomes the present. Nonetheless, scientists are often called on to engage in the exercise; the ability to construct and project different futures can allow scientists to guide society in achieving a particular fate that it deems desirable. Relevant information gathered about the past and the present can be used as a basis for choosing intelligently among possible futures. In January 1998, the National Research Council convened a committee of experts representing a broad range of disciplines to make an effort to predict the future of pesticide use in American agriculture. The effort was far from the first made by the National Research Council to evaluate aspects of pesticide use; the subject has been the focus of National Research Council attention for close to 5 decades, dating back to the earliest days of widespread adoption of synthetic organic pesticides (Appendix A). The format of evaluation has varied—some publications resulted from conferences or symposia and others, were the product of committee deliberations after extended study. Conclusions have also varied, sometimes dramatically. That they have varied is not surprising, given that, over the course of 5 decades technologies have changed, society's goals and values have changed, and even the biology of pest species has changed. In most cases, the publications have had a measurable impact and have influenced attitudes toward pesticides or pesticide use. It is our hope that this report will influence attitudes and policies.

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture One prediction that can be made with some confidence, however, is that, irrespective of the impact of our committee's study and report, it will likely not be the last study commissioned by the National Research Council on the subject of pesticides. Whether there will be 5 more decades of debate or far fewer, depends on dimensions of society, technology, and biology that are impossible to predict even with the best analytical tools available today. May R. Berenbaum Chair Committee on the Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture Acknowledgments The committee was greatly assisted by many individuals and groups that generously shared facts and expertise during the information-gathering phase of this study. In particular, we thank the people who participated in the three public workshops held across the country to provide the committee with input on a wide variety of subjects: MICHAEL ALAVANJA, Agricultural Health Study, National Cancer Institute KATE AULTMAN, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases JOE BODDIFORD, Georgia Peanut Commission, Sylvania, Georgia BARRY BRENNAN, US Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service, Pesticide Applicator Training JENNY BROOME, University of California Davis, Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Program and Biological Integrated Farming Systems MARGRIET CASWELL, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service RAY CARRUTHERS, US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service PETER CAULKINS, US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Pesticide Policy FORREST CHUMLEY, Dupont Agricultural Products RON CISNEY, Olocco Ag Services, Santa Maria, California

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture HAROLD COBLE, US Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service JIM CRANNY, US Apple Association RUPA DAS, California Department of Health Services, Berkeley, California ERNIE DELFOSSE, US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service HELENE DILLARD, New York State Agricultural Experiment Station LARRY ELWORTH, Gettysburg, Pennsylvania ROBERT EPSTEIN, US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service, Science and Technology Pesticide Data Program LEONARD GIANESSI, National Center for Food and Agriculture Policy BOB GILLIOM, US Geological Survey, Sacramento, California DICK GUEST, US Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service Interregional-4 Program JOHN G. HUFTALIN, Grower, Rochelle, Illinois TOBI JONES, California Department of Pesticide Regulation WOLFRAM KOELLER, Cornell University, New York State Agricultural Experiment Station, Geneva, New York SAM LANG, Fairway Green, Raleigh, North Carolina YOUNG LEE, US Food and Drug Administration, Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition RAY MCALLISTER, American Crop Protection Association MIKE MCKENRY, University of California Davis, Kearney Agricultural Experiment Station CHARLES MELLINGER, Glades Crop Care, Jupiter, Florida MIKE OWEN, Iowa State University, Ames KATHLEEN MERRIGAN, Henry A. Wallace Institute, Washington, DC MICHAEL O'MALLEY, University of California Davis, Employee Health Services ELDON ORTMAN, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana STEVE PAVICH, Pavich Family Farms, Porterville, California BOB PETERSON, Dow AgroSciences, Indianapolis, Indiana DAVID PIMENTEL, Cornell University, Department of Entomology, Ithaca, New York GEORGE PONDER, Curtice Burns Foods, Montezuma, Georgia MARY PURCELL, US Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service, National Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program BOB QUINN, Millenial Farm and Ranch, Big Sandy, Montana NANCY RAGSDALE, US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture SAM RIVES, US Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service WAYNE SANDERSON, National Institute of Safety and Health, Cincinnati, Ohio ANN SORENSEN, Center for Agriculture in the Environment, American Farmland Trust, Dekalb, Illinois TOM SPARKS, Dow AgroSciences, Discovery Research, Indianapolis, Indiana TONY THOMPSON, Willow Lake Farm, Windom, Minnesota KEL WIEDER, US Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service, National Research Initiative Competitive Grants MARK WHALON, Pesticide Research Center, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan DEAN ZULEGER, Hartland Farms, Hancock, Wisconsin The following are also acknowledged for assisting the National Research Council staff during preparation of the report by providing updated information and statistics: Arnold Aspelin, senior economist, US Environmental Protection Agency Office of Pesticides Programs; Eldon Ball, economist, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Resource Economics Division; Jennifer Eppes, author of The Future of Biopesticides, Business Communications Company Inc.; Merritt Padgitt, agricultural conomist, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service; James Parochetti, US Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service; and Patrick Stewart, Department of Political Science, Arkansas State University. The committee and staff wish to acknowledge with special recognition the contributions of Nancy Ragsdale of the Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture. Her efforts catalyzed the interest in and subsequent support for this study from both the US Department of Agriculture and the National Research Council. The committee thanks her for unflagging support and patience with this report though its development. The committee is grateful for the extraordinary efforts of the staff of the National Research Council Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources (BANR) in facilitating all stages of this study. Warren Muir, executive director of the Commission on Life Sciences and of BANR provided oversight and Charlotte Kirk Baer, acting as interim director and associate director of BANR, demonstrated an unremitting commitment to seeing this report through to completion. Mary Jane Letaw provided invaluable assistance as project director in early stages of the study, particularly in organizing the project and in arranging the workshops. Karen L.

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture Imhof, project assistant, ably provided enthusiastic support through all stages of report preparation and completion, despite many competing demands on her time. Kim Waddell, project director during later stages of the study, is particularly worthy of recognition for his exceptional efforts at shepherding the report through the review process in a timely and consummately professional way. Heather Christiansen, research associate, provided timely updates and improvements to many of the figures and tables throughout the report. The committee is also appreciative of Norman Grossblatt for his editorial refinement of the report. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Sandra O. Archibald, Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs; Daniel Barolo, Jellinek, Schwartz & Connolly, Inc.; Ellis B. V. Cowling, North Carolina State University; William Fry, Cornell University; Maureen Hinkle, National Audubon Society (retired); Robert Hollingworth, Michigan State University; George G. Kennedy, North Carolina State University; William L. Ogren, US Department of Agriculture (retired); Steven Radosevich, Oregon State University; Mark Robson, Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute; Len Saari, DuPont Agricultural Products; Thomas Sparks, DowAgro Sciences; and John Stark, Washington State University. Although the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author committee and the National Research Council.

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1      Public-Sector Role in Research,   5      Public-Sector Role in Implementation,   9      Public-Sector Role in Education,   13      Coda,   15  1   HISTORY AND CONTEXT   17      Definition of Pesticide,   17      History of Pest Control,   20      Goals of Agriculture,   27      References,   31  2   BENEFITS, COSTS, AND CONTEMPORARY USE PATTERNS   33      Benefits of Pesticides,   33      Contemporary Pesticide Use on US Crops,   38      Pesticide-Related Productivity in US Agriculture,   41      Partial-Budget Models,   45      Combined Budget-Market Models,   49      Econometric Models,   50      Quality, Storage, and Risk,   52      Product Quality,   52      Storage,   53      Risk,   54      Current Problems Associated with Pesticides,   55

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture      Resistance to Pesticides,   55      Human Health Impacts,   60      Occupational Effects and Risks: an Overview,   60      Manufacturing Risks,   61      Packaging, Distribution, and Application Risks,   62      Trends in Worker Safety Risk,   63      Special Focus: Health Risks of Farm Workers and EPA Worker Protection Standards,   64      Food Residues,   67      Soil, Air, and Water Exposures,   70      Ecological Problems: Impacts on Non-Target Organisms,   78      Public Perception of Pesticides,   83      References,   90  3   ECONOMIC AND REGULATORY CHANGES AND THE FUTURE OF PEST MANAGEMENT   102      Economic and Institutional Developments and Their Impacts on Pest Control,   102      Globalization of World Food Markets,   103      Industrialization of Agriculture and Food Processing,   105      Decentralization and Privatization,   106      Privatization of Extension Services and Consulting,   109      Phaseout of Commodity Programs,   110      Devolution,   111      Emergence of the Knowledge Economy,   111      The Organic-Food Market,   113      Market Size,   113      USDA National Organic Standards Program,   115      Eco-Labelling,   115      New Zealand,   116      United States,   118      Innovative Farming Systems to Reduce Pesticide Use,   119      Biointegral Orchard Systems and Biointegral Farming Systems,   119      Pesticide Environmental Stewardship Program,   120      Regulatory Changes,   120      Environmental Regulation,   120      Food Quality Protection Act,   123      Decreasing Worker Exposure to Pesticides,   130      The 1992 EPA Worker Protection Standards,   130      Additional Means of Decreasing Worker Exposure to Pesticides,   133      Legislated Reductions in Pesticide Use,   139      References,   139

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture  4   TECHNOLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL CHANGES AND THE FUTURE OF PEST MANAGEMENT   144      Global Pesticide Market Trends,   144      Chemical-Pesticide Markets,   144      Biopesticide Market,   145      The Industry,   146      Agricultural-Chemical Companies,   146      Biopesticide Companies,   156      The Use of Microbial Pesticides in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Systems,   156      Bacillus thuringiensis,   157      Baculoviruses,   160      Entomopathogenic Fungi,   163      Microbial and Natural-Product Fungicides,   165      Hypovirulence,   168      Transgenic Crops,   168      Genetic Engineering of Pests,   173      Targets of Chemical Pesticides,   176      Combinatorial Chemistry,   177      Development and Commercialization of New Chemicals,   178      Application Technology,   179      Precision Agriculture,   182      Remote Sensing and Pest Management,   183      Increasing Knowledge of Pest Ecology,   184      Decision-Support Systems for Pest Management,   185      Ecological Changes Affecting Agriculture,   186      Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming,   186      Increased Ultraviolet-B Radiation,   189      Increased Frequency of Biological Invasions,   190      Loss of Biodiversity,   191      Evolutionary Changes in Pests,   192      References,   197  5   EVALUATION OF PEST-CONTROL STRATEGIES   210      Pesticide Use in Managed and Natural Ecosystems,   211      Perennial Cropping Systems,   211      Annual Cropping Systems,   212      Stored-Products Systems,   219      Animal-Production Systems,   221      Urban Pest-Management Systems,   223      Wildland Systems,   226      Deciding Among Alternative Pest-Management Strategies in Determining the Utility of Chemical Products,   226

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture      Methods for Assessing Pest Management Strategies,   227      Producers' Surplus,   229      Pest-control Suppliers' Surplus (SS),   229      Users' Surplus (US),   232      Consumers' Surplus (CS),   237      Environmental and Health Costs (EHC),   240      Environmental Costs and Benefits (ECB),   242      Nontarget Species Costs (NTC),   242      Damage to Property and Resources (DRC),   242      Environmental Costs and Benefits of Resource Use (ECBR),   243      Government Net Costs (GNC),   243      Evaluation,   243      Model For Design and Evaluation of Pest-Management Strategies on the Farm Scale,   244      Assessment with Model,   245      Identifying Research Needs,   246      References,   246  6   CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   250      Tradeoffs in Pesticide Decision-Making,   254      Government Support of Research and Development,   257      Funding of New Ventures in Agricultural Biotechnology and Biopesticides,   261      Education and Information,   267      Coda,   269      References,   272     APPENDIXES    A   Selected National Research Council Publications about Pesticides,   275  B   Workshop Agendas,   276  C   About the Authors,   280     INDEX   285

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES Tables  1-1   EPA Regulatory Actions and Special Review Status of Selected Pesticides Used in Field-Crops Production, 1972–June 1995,   26  1-2   USDA Agricultural Research Service Funding of Chemical-Pesticide Research, 1999,   29  1-3   National Science Foundation Award Data Relevant to Pesticide Research,   30  2-1   Pesticide Use in US Row Crops, Fruits, and Vegetables,   39  2-2   Pounds of Pesticide Active Ingredient per Planted Acre in Major US Crops, 1990–1997,   42  2-3   Acreage and Amounts of Pesticides Applied to Major US Crops, 1997,   46  3-1   Application Technologies with Potential to Reduce Pesticide Risks,   135  4-1   Global Chemical Pesticide Market (1997 Sales),   145  4-2   US Chemical Pesticide Market by Category (1997 Sales),   146  4-3   Global Biopesticide Market (in millions of dollars),   146  4-4   Comparison of Technologies Pursued by the Pesticide Industry,   148  4-5   Company Pesticide Programs,   150  4-6   Sales of Transgenic Crops and Chemical Pesticides, 1995–1997,   152  4-7   Reduced-Risk Pesticides Registered with US EPA since 1994,   155  4-8   Number of Field Tests of Genetically Engineered Crops Containing Single or Multiple Genes,   172  4-9   Number of Papers Published in 1996 that Report on Biologically Active Natural Substances,   192  5-1   Pest Management Practices for Major Field Crops in Major Producing States, 1990–1997,   214  5-2   Fruit and Vegetable Acreage Treated with Pesticides, Major Producing States, 1992–1997,   220 Figures  1-1   Relationship between FIFRA-Approved Insecticides and FDA NADA-Approved Pesticides Used on Companion Animals and Livestock,   21

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The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture  2-1   Index of Farm Productivity in the United States, 1948–1996,   34  2-2   Total Pesticides Application on Major US Crops, 1964–1997,   47  2-3   Real Pesticide Expenditures in the United States, 1979–1997,   59  2-4   Registration of Safer Chemicals,   71  4-1   Pesticide Sales of Top Ten Agrochemical Companies, 1997,   147  4-2   Cost to Develop and Time to Market of Various Products,   157  4-3   Agricultural-Environmental Biotechnology Modifications 1987–1998,   170  5-1   Equilibrium in Output Market When Supply Shifts as a Result of Technological Change,   236  5-2   Equilibrium in Output Market with Change in Product Quality,   239 Boxes  1-1   Biopesticide Categories,   20  2-1   Fumigants,   76  3-1   International Organic Food Market,   116  4-1   Microbial Fungicides,   165  5-1   Assessing Integrated Weed Management from Biological Time Constraints and Their Impact on Weed Control and Crop Yield,   224  6-1   Working Model for Assessing Integrated Weed-Management Strategies,   270

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