3
An Overview of Racial and Ethnic Demographic Trends

Gary D.Sandefur, Molly Martin, Jennifer Eggerling-Boeck, Susan E.Mannon, and Ann M.Meier

Provided here is an overview of major demographic trends for racial and ethnic groups in the United States over the past 50 or so years— a daunting undertaking for one paper, given the variety of groups and topics addressed. Consequently, this overview is selective, covering what we feel are the most important trends—population composition and growth, fertility, family, mortality, and migration. Racial and ethnic categories are the ones used by the federal government.

To enumerate racial and ethnic groups, demographers rely on the U.S. decennial census and annual Current Population Surveys (CPS). To estimate marriage, fertility, and mortality rates, demographers use the national vital statistics records of births, marriages, and deaths. Estimates of internal migration come from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (USBC), and estimates of international migration come from the Immigration and Naturalization Services and USBC.

THE LIMITATIONS OF PUBLIC DATA FOR STUDYING TRENDS

The U.S. Census has classified people by “race” since its inception in 1790. In spite of this long practice of differently defining groups, prior to the 1970s (in some cases, even later), tables of population characteristics and other official statistics, including vital statistics, often list only “Whites” and “non-Whites.” One factor complicating the analysis of historical trends for Blacks is the use of different racial and ethnic categories



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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I 3 An Overview of Racial and Ethnic Demographic Trends Gary D.Sandefur, Molly Martin, Jennifer Eggerling-Boeck, Susan E.Mannon, and Ann M.Meier Provided here is an overview of major demographic trends for racial and ethnic groups in the United States over the past 50 or so years— a daunting undertaking for one paper, given the variety of groups and topics addressed. Consequently, this overview is selective, covering what we feel are the most important trends—population composition and growth, fertility, family, mortality, and migration. Racial and ethnic categories are the ones used by the federal government. To enumerate racial and ethnic groups, demographers rely on the U.S. decennial census and annual Current Population Surveys (CPS). To estimate marriage, fertility, and mortality rates, demographers use the national vital statistics records of births, marriages, and deaths. Estimates of internal migration come from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (USBC), and estimates of international migration come from the Immigration and Naturalization Services and USBC. THE LIMITATIONS OF PUBLIC DATA FOR STUDYING TRENDS The U.S. Census has classified people by “race” since its inception in 1790. In spite of this long practice of differently defining groups, prior to the 1970s (in some cases, even later), tables of population characteristics and other official statistics, including vital statistics, often list only “Whites” and “non-Whites.” One factor complicating the analysis of historical trends for Blacks is the use of different racial and ethnic categories

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I in different years. Initially, slave status was used as a proxy for a racial category for Black Americans. Classification options for race were only “free White persons, slaves, or all other free persons.” Later a category for “free colored persons” was added. In 1870, “mulatto” was added; census enumerators were instructed to “…be particularly careful in reporting the class Mulatto. The word is here generic, and includes quadroons, octoroons, and all persons having any perceptible trace of African blood” (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989). The 1890 Census divided Blacks thus: Black described those who had “three-fourths or more Black blood”; mulatto, those who had “three-eighths to five-eighths Black blood”; quadroon, “one-fourth Black blood”; and octoroon, “one-eighth or any trace of Black blood.” Terms used for a Black person changed from “slave,” to “colored person,” to “Negro,” to “Black.” The 2000 Census used “Black/ African American.” For Asians, the history of classification is as complicated. In censuses of the late 1800s and early 1900s, three Asian groups were typically represented—Chinese, Japanese, and Filipino. Other Asian categories were added along the way—Korean in 1940 and Vietnamese and Asian Indian in 1980. By 1990, nine ethnic groups were listed under Asians and Pacific Islanders (API)—Chinese, Japanese, Filipino, Asian Indian, Hawaiian, Samoan, Korean, Guamanian, and Vietnamese—as well as an “Other API” option with a blank for identifying “Other.” Trend analysis is further complicated by the fact that statistics released by USBC do not always mirror actual census classification; USBC combines some categories for ease of reporting. For example, most published tabulations of 1990 data on race report for the umbrella category of Asian and Pacific Islander, not each of the nine ethnic groups. Another complication for analysis is the fact that Asians do not appear in vital statistics publications until recently. The 1870 Census included American Indians as a separate racial group. Prior to that, only Indians who paid taxes were enumerated, but they were not distinguished racially from the rest of the population. Currently, the census asks those who identify themselves as American Indians to write in their tribal affiliation. Published information on American Indians from 1970 onward sometimes includes data for Eskimo and Aleut populations as Alaska Natives. An issue that has a pronounced impact on the analysis of trends among American Indians is the USBC change to self-identification. Between 1970 and 1990, the size of the American Indian population tripled (Nagel, 1996; Eschbach, 1993), an increase far beyond what was generated by either migration or births. Renewed pride in American Indian heritage among many who earlier had identified themselves with some group other than American Indian (often White) led to the increased numbers of American Indians. The 1970 Census introduced self-identification for persons of Spanish

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I origin. The “Hispanic” population includes Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, and those of other Hispanic origin or descent (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989). In the past, census methods to identify respondents of Spanish origin included identification based on Spanish surname, use of Spanish language at home, and respondent’s birthplace or birthplace of parents (Bean and Tienda, 1987). These identifiers were less than satisfactory. Surnames often change after marriage, some Spanish surnames are indistinguishable from Italian and Portuguese surnames, questions about one’s birthplace or birthplace of parents only capture first- and second-generation Hispanics, and identification by the use of Spanish at home excludes Hispanics who do not use Spanish at home. In fact, the 1980 Census found that of the 14.6 million Hispanics identified, only 11.1 million reported speaking Spanish at home (Davis et al., 1983). In the 2000 Census, the ethnicity question was only slightly different, asking respondents whether they are of “Hispanic or Latino” origin or descent rather than “Spanish/Hispanic” origin or descent (Office of Management and Budget, 1997). Perhaps the most important development in racial and ethnic group definitions also came in 1970; that year the census was distributed by mail rather than having enumerators go door-to-door. This made enumerator identification of race obsolete. The 1960 Census was primarily self-identification, but enumerator identification was used in some rural areas where census forms were not mailed. Thus, since 1970, racial identification is no longer the province of census enumerators. Respondents now classify their own race and that of the members of their households. Although the ethnicity question has remained relatively consistent in the past two censuses, USBC continues to grapple with racial classification. Most recently the issue is the classification of individuals of multiracial parentage who eschew single-race classification. The 2000 Census allowed respondents to identify with as many racial groups as they wished in a “check all that apply” list of options (Office of Management and Budget, 1997). This could prove extremely complicated when attempting to tabulate the composition of the nation by race. A final limitation of the data to be mindful of is that decennial censuses have been plagued by a differential undercount problem. It is estimated that the 1990 Census missed 8.5 percent of Black males and 3.0 percent of Black females, compared to 2 percent of non-Black males and 0.6 percent of non-Black females (Robinson et al., 1993). Other hard-to-reach populations, such as American Indians on reservations, are undercounted as well. The heterogeneity of the major racial and ethnic groups in the United States creates a final problem. All racial and ethnic groups discussed in this book are composed of subgroups that vary widely in characteristics.

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I Nevertheless, there is value in looking at trends for the broader groups. Federal, state, and local programs and funding allocations are often based on broad group membership rather than narrowly defined racial and ethnic groups. Also, most of the racial or ethnic groups within broader classifications share some cultural or historical experiences. POPULATION SIZE, HISTORICAL TRENDS, AND PROJECTIONS Population size is determined by three principal components of demography: fertility, mortality, and migration. Racial and ethnic differences in rates of one or more of these components cause the racial composition of the nation to shift. Recently, international migration and higher fertility rates among some racial and ethnic groups have been the primary contributors to the nation’s population growth and changing composition. Historical Trends The racial and ethnic composition of the more than 265 million U.S. residents is 1 percent American Indian, 3 percent Asian, 11 percent Hispanic, 12 percent Black, and 73 percent White (Deardorff and Hollmann, 1997)—quite different than it was 50 years ago, and projected to be different 50 years from now. Figure 3–1 shows historical trends in racial composition from 1900 to 1990, with projections to 2050. Until 1940, Whites are shown as constituting more than 80 percent of the population; since then, the percentage of the population that is White has been declining. Hispanic and Asian percentages have increased significantly. The percentage of Blacks—10 to 12 percent—has remained relatively stable. The percentage of American Indians has grown dramatically, but is still only 1 percent at the end of this century. Projected Trends From 2000 to 2050 (Figure 3–1), the Black population is projected to increase only slightly, while the Hispanic and Asian populations are projected to increase dramatically. By 2010, Hispanics are expected to surpass Blacks as the largest minority group in the United States. Whites are projected to comprise 53 percent of the population by 2050. One must take such projections with a huge grain of salt. Immigration rates may change. Fertility or mortality regimes could change significantly. The way Americans think and talk about racial and ethnic distinc-

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I FIGURE 3–1 Racial and ethnic composition of the United States: 1900 to 2050. SOURCES: Adapted from Day (1996: Table 1); Davis et al. (1983: Table 3); Garcia and Montgomery (1991: Table 1); Thornton and Marsh-Thornton (1981: Tables 1 and 4); Barringer et al. (1993: Table 2.4A); Elben (1974: Table 2); Coale and Rives (1973: Table 4); Hollmann (1993: Tables 1 and 2); Bogue (1985: Tables 2 and 3); Coale and Zelnik (1963: Tables 16 and 17); Siegel (1974: Table 2); and McDaniel (1995: Figure 1). tions, as well as the racial and ethnic categories used by the federal government, may change in fundamental ways, as they have in the past. Age Structure of Racial and Ethnic Groups Figure 3–2, a through f, illustrates the age composition of U.S. populations over time. Figure 3–2a shows that the population as a whole has aged from 1950 to 1996. The most notable shifts are the decreases in the younger groups and increases in the middle-age groups. In 1950, the

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I youngest age group comprised the largest percentage of the population— the beginning of the baby-boom era. The dent in the 1950 age composition, at the 15- to-19-year-old segment, can be attributed, in part, to low fertility during the Depression. In 1950, almost half of the population was less than 30 years old; by 1996, only about 40 percent of the population was less than 30 years old. In the 1996 data, the bulge at the middle-age groups represents the aging of the baby-boomers, and the percentages of the population at the oldest ages are greater than they were in 1950, indicating the aging of the population. In Figure 3–2, b through f, the population pyramids illustrate changes in relative age structures for racial and ethnic groups and indicate future trends. Logically, because they are the most populous group, Whites (Figure 3–2b) most closely mirror age structure trends for the total United States, with a lower and stabilizing birth rate, the baby-boomer bulge around the middle-age groups in 1996, and an aging population. The pyramid for the Black population (Figure 3–2c) shows an older FIGURE 3–2a 1950 and 1996 U.S. total age composition. SOURCES: Adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census (1965: Table 1); Deardorff and Hollmann (1997: Table 1).

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I FIGURE 3–2b 1950 White (including Hispanic) and 1996 non-Hispanic White age composition. SOURCES: Adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census (1965: Table 1); Deardorff and Hollmann (1997: Table 1). FIGURE 3–2c 1950 Black (including Hispanic) and 1996 non-Hispanic Black age composition. 75–79 represents 75+ for the 1950 data, the highest age group tabulated for this group in 1950. SOURCES: Adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census (1953f: Table 2); Deardorff and Hollmann (1997: Table 1).

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I FIGURE 3–2d 1950 and 1996 American Indian age composition. SOURCES: Adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census (1953f: Table 2); Deardorff and Hollmann (1997: Table 1). FIGURE 3–2e 1970 and 1996 Hispanic age composition. SOURCES: Adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census (1973c: Table 2); Deardorff and Hollmann (1997: Table 1).

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I FIGURE 3–2f 1980 and 1996 Asian age composition. SOURCES: Adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census (1983: Table 2); Deardorff and Hollmann (1997: Table 1). population in 1996 than in 1950, but one that is still younger than that of the United States overall and Whites specifically. The pyramid for American Indians (Figure 3–2d) suggests that that population has undergone dramatic changes in age composition since 1950; however, changes in self-identification probably influenced changes in age composition as well. In 1950, more than 15 percent of the American Indian population were less than 5 years old; by 1996, the percentage was almost half that, at just over 8 percent; at this time, data are also included for Alaska Natives. Even with the decline, this percentage is still higher than that for the total United States or Whites, but comparable to percentages for Blacks and Asians. Despite their aging population, in 1996 well over 50 percent of the American Indian population was less than 30 years old. Hispanics (Figure 3–2e) are currently the youngest population of all major U.S. racial and ethnic groups. Nearly 60 percent of the Hispanic population is less than 30 years old; 12 percent are less than 5 years old, at least 3 percentage points more than Blacks, Asians, or American Indians/

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I Alaska Natives. Higher percentages in the young age groups in 19701 may be a reflection of immigration of young children under the Immigration Act of 1965, which emphasized family reunification. The young age of the Hispanic population, coupled with current high rates of immigration, support projections that the Hispanic population will surpass Blacks as the largest minority group by the year 2010. In the pyramid for the Asian population (Figure 3–2f), 1980, rather than 1950, data are used because 1980 was the first year complete data for Asians are available. Earlier information reported only on selected Asian subgroups. The pyramid on the 1996 side is wider at the younger ages through the middle-age groups and more narrow at the older age groups. This is, in part, the result of the high rate of immigration among Asians. Together, Asians and Hispanics comprised 85 percent of all U.S. immigrants during the 1980s (Martin and Midgley, 1994). The relatively young age structure and high rates of immigration indicate rapid growth for Asians in the future; projected growth rates exceed 2.5 percent per year through 2020 (Day, 1996). POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND MIGRATION Historical Trends The dramatic growth in major U.S. racial and ethnic populations owes much to immigration. In addition to legal immigration, substantial numbers of undocumented immigrants have entered the United States since the mid-1960s; estimates have been a source of controversy, but the most widely accepted is between 2 and 4 million (Bean and Tienda, 1987; see also, Passel and Woodrow, 1984). The 1965 Immigration Act, which replaced the national-origins system, increased the total number of immigrants allowed into the United States, and caused the number of immigrants entering the country to skyrocket. Regional Distribution USBC distinguishes between four major census regions: the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. Nearly one-half of the White population lives in the Northeast and Midwest, compared to less than one-third for all other racial and ethnic groups. Regional concentrations are shown in Table 3–1. 1   1970 data are used rather than 1950 data because 1970 is the first time complete data on Hispanic ethnicity were gathered in the Census. Earlier information is based on surname or language spoken at home, or it is only for selected states.

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I TABLE 3–1 Population Percentage by Region, 1950 to 1990     Year Race/Ethnicity Region 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Total U.S.     Northeast 26.2 24.91 24.13 21.69 20.43 Midwest 29.5 28.79 27.84 25.99 23.99 South 31.32 30.66 30.9 33.28 34.36 West 13.4 15.64 17.14 19.06 21.22 White     Northeast 27.54 25.95 24.69 22.47 21.07 Midwest 31.01 30 28.77 27.71 26.04 South 27.13 27.17 28.09 31.3 32.84 West 13.68 16.14 17.48 18.52 20.05 Black     Northeast 13.42 16.04 19.24 18.3 18.73 Midwest 14.81 18.26 20.25 20.14 19.05 South 67.98 59.94 53.01 53.02 52.83 West 3.8 5.75 7.51 8.54 9.39 Hispanica     Northeast —b 18.8d 20.89 17.83 16.61 Midwest — 5 11.55 8.74 7.58 South — 32.2 30.44 30.63 30.42 West — 44.1 37.12 42.81 45.39 Asian     Northeast 12.17c 8.97c 13.57e 15.99 18.26 Midwest 9.88 6.5 7.96 11.14 10.47 South 14.4 5.22 6.64 13.42 15.23 West 63.55 79.23 71.83 59.45 56.01 American Indian     Northeast 4.6 6.41 5.99 5.56 6.15 Midwest 22.4 19.23 18.89 17.49 17.42 South 20.05 24.36 25.46 26.2 29.28 West 52.96 50.18 49.66 50.74 47.15 aIncludes persons of Spanish origin of any race. bStatistics on Hispanic population limited to persons of Spanish origin in only five southwestern states during this year. cIncludes Japanese, Chinese, Filipino, and other Asians (Koreans, Asian Indians, and Malayans) for 1950 and 1960. dHispanic population figures for 1960 based on Bean and Tienda (1987: Table 5.1). eIncludes Japanese, Chinese, and Filipino for 1970. SOURCES: Adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census (1953f: Tables 3–7; 1963i: Tables 2–6; 1973e: Tables 1, 16, 31; 1973c: Table 1; 1973d: Table 1; 1975: Series A172–194; 1991: Table E; 1993a: Table 135); Bean and Tienda (1987: Table 5.1).

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I disparity is not expected to diminish. These forecasts, however, do not take into account political, social, behavioral, demographic, or medical influences on future mortality changes. One such future political influence is the President’s Healthy People 2010 plan, which includes the goal of reducing infant mortality by 22 percent for Blacks with the eventual goal of eliminating this racial disparity for Blacks, American Indians, and Puerto Ricans. Other Healthy People 2010 goals include increased screening and management for cancer; reductions in stroke and heart disease mortality; the elimination of disparities in diabetes, especially for Blacks and American Indians; equal access to life-enhancing therapies for low-income HIV-infected persons; and increased access to immunizations for minorities (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 1998). Each of these measures will help eliminate important differences among racial and ethnic groups and break down barriers to increased life chances. These measures could help bring our population one step closer to a convergence in infant mortality and life expectancy. Racial and ethnic minority groups suffer disproportionately from higher mortality rates and, thus, lower life expectancies and unequal chances for survival. Most of the gaps between Whites and non-Whites have narrowed over the years, but continue to be significant. Especially disturbing is the continued, and increasing, gap between Black and White infant mortality. The United States has experienced a great reduction in the leading causes of death during this century, from suffering and dying primarily from infectious and parasitic diseases to degenerative diseases. Racial and ethnic groups have experienced this reduction in leading cause of death later than Whites, and still suffer more from infectious diseases than do Whites. The leading causes of death differ greatly, depending on age groups, but for both age-specific and overall causes of death, mortality rates are generally higher for Blacks and American Indians. Additional difficulties arise for interpreting racial and ethnic mortality statistics because of multiple data problems. Combined, these data problems tend to underestimate the mortalities of non-Whites. Regardless of whether these estimates are lower bounds of the true discrepancies between racial and ethnic groups and Whites, clearly more attention needs to be devoted to the health conditions of minorities. SUMMARY The United States has witnessed significant demographic shifts in its racial and ethnic composition over the past 50 years, and still greater change is anticipated in the twenty-first century. Historically, Blacks con-

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I stituted the largest racial and ethnic minority group; Hispanics, Asians, and American Indians comprise smaller proportions of the population; but Hispanic and Asian populations are growing at a rapid rate. Hispanics are expected to surpass Blacks as the largest minority group, and the Asian population is expected to increase more rapidly than any other group. Projected increases in the Hispanic and Asian populations can be partially explained by the influx of immigrants in the past several decades. The regional and metropolitan distribution of different racial and ethnic groups in the United States often reflects patterns of international migration. Foreign-born immigrants traditionally cluster on the coasts in port-of-entry cities such as Los Angeles, Miami, and New York; however, substantial numbers of the second generation move to inland metropolitan areas. In spite of all this movement, for both internal migrants and immigrants, racial and ethnic minority groups tend to migrate to areas with existing concentrations of coethnics or members of their racial or ethnic group. Another aspect of the growing Hispanic population is fertility rates. Hispanic women have traditionally had much higher fertility rates than Whites and slightly higher rates than Blacks. In 1996, American Indian women had higher fertility rates than White, Black, and Asian women, for whom the rate was lowest, mostly because American Indian women start childbearing earlier and continue to have children much later than women in other racial and ethnic groups. Blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians had the highest rates of teenage childbearing, in 1995, while Asians had the lowest. Out-of-wed-lock childbearing, at any age, increased for all groups, but especially for Whites. Researchers attribute the particular increase among Whites to a decline in marriage rates. Despite the largest increase in out-of-wedlock childbearing being among Whites, Blacks maintained a rate twice that of Whites in this category, and American Indian women had out-of-wedlock childbearing rates similar to Blacks. Blacks historically married at younger ages than Whites, but in 1995, Blacks married later than Whites. As the proportion of children born out of wedlock increased, as the average age at first marriage increased, and as the divorce rate increased, single-parent families became increasingly common. The proportion of children living in single-parent families was highest among Blacks in 1995, followed by American Indians, Hispanics, Whites, and finally Asians. Life expectancies in 1995 were lowest at birth for Blacks and American Indians. These two groups also had the highest infant mortality rates and age-adjusted death rates. As data collection for specific U.S. populations has improved, and

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I continues to improve, our understanding of specific-population characteristics has improved substantially. The quantity and quality of information on the major racial and ethnic groups—Blacks, Whites, American Indians, Asians and Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics—is better now than ever before. Furthermore, we are accumulating better and better data on specific subgroups such as the Hmong, Vietnamese, and Mexican populations. Nonetheless, severe data limitations remain, especially in the area of vital statistics. The future of data collection and analysis will be even more complicated if patterns of immigration and intermarriage continue. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This paper was prepared for the Research Conference on Racial Trends in the United States sponsored by the National Research Council, October 15–16, 1998. Work on this paper was carried out at the Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, which receives financial support from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development. REFERENCES Anderson, R., K.Kochanek, and S.Murphy 1997 Advance report of final mortality statistics, 1995. Monthly Vital Statistics Report 45(11S). Barringer, H., R.Gardner, and M.Levin 1993 Asians and Pacific Islanders in the United States. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Bartel, A. 1989 Where do the new U.S. immigrants live? Journal of Labor Economics 7:371–391. Bean, F., and M.Tienda 1987 The Hispanic Population of the United States. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Bernstein, A. 1991 American Indians and World War II: Toward a New Era in Indian Affairs. Norman, Okla.: University of Oklahoma Press. Bertoli, F., C.Rent, and G.Rent 1984 Infant mortality by socio-economic status for Blacks, Indians, and Whites: A longitudinal analysis of North Carolina, 1968–1977. Sociology and Social Research 68(3):364–377. Bogue, D. 1985 Population of the United States: Historical Trends and Future Projections. New York: The Free Press. Bradshaw, B., and K.Liese 1991 Mortality of Mexican-origin persons in the southwestern United States. Ch. 5 in Mortality of Hispanic Populations, I.Rosenwaike, ed. New York: Greenwood Press.

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I Campbell, P. 1993 Population Projections for States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1993 to 2020. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports P25–1111. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Cherlin, A. 1992 Marriage Divorce Remarriage, Revised and Enlarged Edition. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Coale, A., and N.Rives 1973 A statistical reconstruction of the Black population of the United States, 1880– 1970: Estimates of the numbers by age and sex, birth rates and total fertility. Population Index 39:3–35. Coale, A., and M.Zelnik 1963 New Estimates of Fertility and Population in the United States. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Cramer, J. 1987 Social factors and infant mortality: Identifying high-risk groups and proximate causes. Demography 24(3):299–322. Curtin, L., and R.Klein 1995 Direct standardization (age-adjusted death rates). Healthy People 2000: Statistical Notes (10):1–10. Darabi, K. 1987 Childbearing among Hispanics in the United States: An Annotated Bibliography. New York: Greenwood Press. Davis, C, C.Haub, and J.Willette 1983 U.S. Hispanics: Changing the face of America. Population Bulletin 38(3). Day, J. 1996 Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, P25–1130. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Deardorff, K., and F.Hollmann 1997 U.S. Population Estimates by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin: 1990 to 1996. U.S. Bureau of the Census, PPL-57, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. De Jong, G. and J.Fawcett 1981 Motivations for migration: An assessment and a value-expectancy research model. In G.De Jong and R.Gardner, eds., Migration Decision Making: Multi-disciplinary Approaches to Microlevel Studies in Developed and Developing Countries. New York: Pergamon Press. Dillingham, H., and D.Sly 1966 The mechanical cotton picker, Negro migration and the integration movement. Human Organization 25(Winter):346. Elben, J. 1974 New estimates of vital rates of the United States Black population during the nineteenth century. Demography 11:301–319. Eschbach, K. 1993 Changing identification among American Indians and Alaska Natives. Demography 30:635–652. Farley, R., and W.Allen 1987 The Color Line and the Quality of Life in America. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

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