AMERICA BECOMING

Racial Trends and Their Consequences

Volume I

Neil J.Smelser, William Julius Wilson, and Faith Mitchell, Editors

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I AMERICA BECOMING Racial Trends and Their Consequences Volume I Neil J.Smelser, William Julius Wilson, and Faith Mitchell, Editors Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The study was supported by Grant No. SBR-9709489 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation through interagency agreements with the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation/U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Bureau of Transportation Statistics/U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Education, U.S. Department of Labor, Environmental Protection Agency, Economic Research Service/U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, U.S. Department of the Interior, National Institute of Justice/U.S. Department of Justice, President’s Initiative on Race, Social Security Administration, U.S. Department of Treasury, and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. The Mellon and Mott foundations provided additiona support. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Suggested citation: National Research Council (2001). America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences. Volume I. Neil J.Smelser, William Julius Wilson, and Faith Mitchell, Editors. Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data America becoming: racial trends and their consequences/Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council ; Neil Smelser, William Julius Wilson, and Faith Mitchell, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-309-06495-3 (v. 1)—ISBN 0-309-06838-X (v. 1: pbk.) 1. United States—Race relations—Research—Congresses. 2. United States—Ethnic relations—Research—Congresses. 3. United States—Population—Statistics—Congresses. 4. Minorities—United States—Social conditions—Research—Congresses. 5. Minorities—United States—Economic conditions—Reasearch—Congresses. I. Smelser, Neil J. II. Wilson, William J., 1935- III. Mitchell, Faith. IV. National Research Council (U.S.). Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. E184.A1 A497 2000 305.8'00973–dc21 00–010549 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418 Call (800) 624–6242 or (202) 334–3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) This report is also available online at http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I.Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. William A.Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I COMMISSION ON BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES AND EDUCATION Neil J.Smelser, Chair (NAS), Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford Robert H.Bates, Department of Government, Harvard University Alfred Blumstein (NAE), H.John Heinz School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University Jacquelynne Eccles, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan Stephen E.Fienberg (NAS), Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University Baruch Fischhoff (IOM), Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University John F.Geweke, Department of Economics, University of Iowa Christopher S.Jencks (NAS), John F.Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Eleanor E.Maccoby (NAS, IOM), Department of Psychology, Stanford University Cora B.Marrett, Vice Chancellor for Academic Affairs and Provost, University of Massachusetts Barbara J.McNeil (IOM), Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School Robert A.Moffitt, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University Richard J.Murnane, Graduate School of Education, Harvard University T.Paul Schultz, Department of Economics, Yale University Kenneth A.Shepsle (NAS), Department of Government, Harvard University Richard M.Shiffrin (NAS), Psychology Department, Indiana University Burton H.Singer (NAS), Office of Population Research, Princeton University Catherine E.Snow, Graduate School of Education, Harvard University Marta Tienda, Office of Population Research, Princeton University David B.Tyack, School of Education, Stanford University

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I Foreword Christopher Edley, Jr. The President’s Race Initiative was launched in June 1997 in the belief that no challenge facing the nation as it enters the new century is as critical and daunting as the challenge of color. Around the world and throughout human history, there have been countless tragedies born of our seemingly innate tendencies toward misunderstanding, distrust, resentment, prejudice, hatred, and even violence-all triggered by racial, ethnic, tribal, and religious differences. It would be hubris to believe that Americans have somehow escaped this human condition, miraculously healed and henceforth immune from our own color-based brand of tribalism. We are unlikely in the next few years to face the upheavals of ethnic cleansing familiar from the Balkans and Central Africa, or the slow burn of ethnicity-based conflict and even terrorism we have witnessed in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Northern Ireland, Spain, Mexico, and countless other places. The growth of America’s diversity is breathtaking. However, unless we in the United States do better to confront and bind our racial and ethnic divisions, the powerful legacy of racial caste will shackle our progress and rend our communities. Our secular catechism of equality and justice for all, authored at the nation’s birth, was belied by practices at the time. Yet these remain the powerful ideals to which we aspire, at least in our nobler moments, and without regard to political party or social status. One could even argue that the essence of being an American has much more to do with allegiance to our conceptions of justice and fairness than it does to proficiency in a common language or devotion to some vague set of cultural practices. (Baseball? Apple pie? Some religion? Television?) When Ameri-

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I cans express patriotic pride, we may mention our relative prosperity or some iconic character trait such as self-reliance. But more likely, we boast about our civic institutions and, especially, civic values such as equality and tolerance. Racial caste in this land is more than twice as old as the nation itself. It began with the campaigns of displacement, killing, and subjugation of native peoples by European settlers, and then expanded to the chattel slavery of imported Africans. Because the roots of American prejudice and racism are some 250 years deeper than the bedrock of our constitutional ideals, it would be yet another form of hubris to believe that the legacy can be undone in a mere generation or two, and the wounds healed. Nonetheless, healing with unflagging determination is precisely what we must be about. The first step must be a better understanding of our history and our present condition. This is where the leaders of the social sciences have an indispensable contribution to make. The Race Initiative asked the National Research Council of the National Academies to provide the nation with an authoritative assessment of where we are. America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences is the result. America Becoming details demographic changes that have moved America beyond Black and White into a complex multiethnic environment that we still do not understand. Disparities, discrimination, progress, and retrogression within this multilayered economic and social environment demonstrate that the color question is pervasive in our lives, and it is an explicit tension or at least subtext in countless policy debates. These debates range from K-12 school improvement, to criminal justice, to reinvention of the health care system. The premise is that rational explication, based in research, can make a difference in the pursuit of our ideals. There is, unfortunately, substantial evidence to the contrary when it comes to race and ethnicity. The difficulties are of many sorts. These volumes amply illustrate that there is no shortage of factual, methodological, and conceptual challenges in studying “race”—itself a contingent social construct, rather than a fixed biological or anthropological one. They also illustrate that the research enterprise, try as we might, is almost inextricably tied to our politics—to the currents of public values, interests, and debates. There are contestable judgments implicit in the choice of data we decide to keep, the subjects scholars choose to investigate (and that can attract funding), the questions and variables researchers select, the interpretations and application of the research findings, and so forth. All of this means that research related to race has been the victim of the public’s decreased interest in civil rights in the past 25 years, and that even sound research results have often been viewed through lenses shaped by political or ideological agendas.

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I In the complex agenda of color and ethnicity, it is vital that researchers contribute to a reengagement of both the public and the research community, despite the difficulties and risks. In these papers, researchers repeatedly identify important questions requiring further research. The greatest success of America Becoming will be in providing the impetus for a reinvigoration of the social scientific commitment to the cause of racial and ethnic justice: to answer and raise questions, to guide and critique policy actors, to take stock, and, especially, to teach. America Becoming will be instrumental in feeding thoughtful debate. There is ample nourishment here, to be sure, and one can find in the media and countless communities and institutions reason to hope that the appetite for serious civic discourse on the matter of race is on the rise. In colleges and universities, to take one example, dialogues on race have proliferated, and one must hope that a resurgence of sophisticated course offerings in this field will be a signal achievement of this decade. As we prepare students to live and lead in increasingly diverse communities, it is education malpractice if we fail to provide an understanding of where America is and has been on these troubling matters. Race is not rocket science; it is harder than rocket science. Race demands an intellectual investment equal to the task. It also demands relentlessness in research and teaching that will overwhelm the human tendency to let our differences trigger the worst in our natures.

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I Acknowledgments The editors would like to acknowledge the role that many people and agencies played in contributing to the success of the Research Conference on Racial Trends in the United States and the report based on that conference, America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences. The conference grew out of discussions between the National Research Council (NRC) and the President’s Initiative on Race. Judith Winston, the executive director of the Initiative, and her staff, including Lin Liu and John Goering, were engaged and helpful throughout the process. The additional support of Christopher Edley, Jr. (special adviser to the Initiative), Rebecca Blank (Council of Economic Advisers), Peter Rundlet (White House), and Katherine Wallman (Office of Management and Budget), was indispensable. Their ability to demonstrate the importance of the documentation of racial trends persuaded many agencies to support the conference. An advisory committee, made up of representatives of the sponsoring agencies and chaired by Rebecca Blank, met several times with NRC staff during the conference planning period. This committee provided the NRC with very helpful feedback and advice. The sponsors of the conference included the Bureau of Transportation Statistics of the U.S. Department of Transportation, the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Institute of Justice of the U.S. Department of Justice, the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I Figures 2–1   Minority population by region, 1995,   23 2–2   Household structure,   24 2–3   Computer use by children in first through sixth grades,   26 2–4   Persons aged 25 to 29 with a four-year college degree or higher,   27 2–5   Labor force participation rates of persons aged 25 to 54,   28 2–6   Median weekly earnings of male and female full-time workers,   29 2–7   Median family income,   30 2–8   Poverty rates for individuals,   31 2–9   Infant mortality rates,   32 2–10   Prevalence of smoking among persons aged 18 to 24,   33 2–11   Death rates by cause, for persons aged 15 to 34, 1994 to 1995,   34 2–12   Victims of homicide,   35 2–13   Housing units with physical problems,   36 2–14   Average racial and ethnic composition of metropolitan neighborhoods, 1990,   37 3–1   Racial and ethnic composition of the United States: 1900 to 2050,   44 3–2a   1950 and 1996 U.S. total age composition,   45 3–2b   1950 White (including Hispanic) and 1996 non-Hispanic White age composition,   46 3–2c   1950 Black (including Hispanic) and 1996 non-Hispanic Black age composition,   46 3–2d   1950 and 1996 American Indian age composition,   47 3–2e   1970 and 1996 Hispanic age composition,   47 3–2f   1980 and 1996 Asian age composition,   48 3–3   Life expectancy at birth by sex, 1950 to 1995,   84 4–1   Hispanic population in the United States, by national origin, 1970 to 1996,   108 4–2   Median family income by race,   144 4–3   Persons aged 25 to 29 with a high school degree or equivalent,   115 4–4   Educational attainment of Hispanics by national origin and by nativity, 1996,   116 4–5   Persons aged 25 to 29 with a four-year college degree or higher,   117 5–1   Native American populations according to the 1990 census,   141

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I 7–1   Immigration to the United States: 1901 to 1925 versus 1971 to 1995,   202 7–2   Immigration from the Americas (not including Canada) and Asia, as a proportion of the total immigration to the United States, 1911 to 1990,   210 7–3   Distribution of major ethnic groups by generational status in major metropolitan areas with large immigrant populations,   219 7–4   Distribution of age cohorts in major metropolitan areas with large immigrant populations,   231 9–1   Trends in Whites’ attitudes about school integration,   269 9–2   Trends in Whites’ attitudes about residential choice,   270 9–3   Trends in Whites’ attitudes about race and employment,   271 9–4   Trends in Whites’ attitudes about racial intermarriage,   272 9–5   Support for race-based job training and education assistance programs, by race,   274 9–6   Support for race-based preferences in hiring and promotion, by race,   274 9–7   Percentage of Whites rating racial minorities as inferior to Whites,   278 9–8   Percentage of Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, and Asian/Pacific Islanders who believe there is “a lot” of discrimination in getting good-paying jobs, by race,   281 9–9a   Trends in Whites’ beliefs about individualistic bases of Black/ White economic inequality,   283 9–9b   Trends in Whites’ structural beliefs about Black/White economic inequality,   284 9–10   Percentage of Blacks, Hispanics, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and Whites agreeing or disagreeing with fairness statements regarding ethnic group deprivation,   286 9–11   Importance of race to Blacks,   287 12–1   Standardized NAEP reading and math scores for Black, Hispanic, and White 9-, 13-, and 17-year-olds,   357 12–2   Annual growth in average number of math (algebra and higher) and English courses, for students graduating from high school, by race/ethnicity,   366 12–3   Trends in NAEP reading scores and reading for pleasure among Black 17-year-olds, 1984 to 1996,   372 12–4   “What is the lowest grade you can get without your parents getting upset?” Answers by student’s race/ethnicity and mother’s education,   379

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I 12–A   Changes since 1976 in SAT (A) verbal and (B) math scores by racial/ethnic background (three-year moving averages),   386 14–1   Suburbanization of employment and population in 74 metropolitan areas, 1970 to 1990,   437 14–2   Suburbanization of the population in 74 metropolitan areas, 1970 to 1990,   438 14–3   Ratio of suburban to central-city income, from 1970 to 1990,   438 14–4   Ratio of central-city to metropolitan poverty, from 1970 to 1990,   439 14–5   Metropolitan-level inequality in 74 metropolitan areas, 1970 to 1990,   440 14–6   Variability of income growth by metropolitan area, 1970 to 1990,   440 14–7   Ethnic composition of low and high job growth areas in Los Angeles County, 1990,   441 14–8   Exposure by group to environmental negatives in Southern California,   444 14–9   Exposure to high-capacity toxic facilities over time in Los Angeles County,   447 14–10   Per capita income growth and change in inequality in 74 metropolitan areas, 1980 to 1990,   449

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I Contents Volume II JUSTICE TRENDS 1 Racial Trends in the Administration of Criminal Justice Randall Kennedy 1 2 Race and Criminal Justice Alfred Blumstein 21 3 Commentary on Randall Kennedy’s Overview of the Justice System Darnell F.Hawkins 32 LABOR FORCE, INCOME, WEALTH, AND WELFARE TRENDS 4 Race and Ethnicity in the Labor Market: Trends Over the Short and Long Term James P.Smith 52 5 Racial Differences in Labor Market Outcomes Among Men Harry J.Holzer 98

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I 6 Racial Trends in Labor Market Access and Wages: Women Cecilia A.Conrad 124 7 Ethnic and Racial Differences in Welfare Receipt in the United States Robert A.Moffitt and Peter T.Gottschalk 152 8 Labor Force Trends: The Military as Data John Sibley Butler and Charles C.Moskos 174 9 Trends in Minority-Owned Businesses Thomas D.Boston 190 10 Wealth and Racial Stratification Melvin L.Oliver and Thomas M.Shapiro 222 HEALTH TRENDS 11 Racial and Ethnic Differences in Health: Recent Trends, Current Patterns, Future Directions Raynard S.Kington and Herbert W.Nickens 253 12 Racial and Ethnic Trends in Children’s and Adolescents’ Behavior and Development Vonnie C.McLoyd and Betsy Lozoff 311 13 The Health of Minority Children in the Year 2000: The Role of Government Programs in Improving the Health Status of America’s Children Renée R.Jenkins 351 14 Racial Variations in Adult Health Status: Patterns, Paradoxes, and Prospects David R.Williams 371 15 Health-Care Use in the Veterans Health Administration: Racial Trends and the Spirit of Inquiry Eugene Z.Oddone, Laura A.Petersen, and Morris Weinberger 411

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I APPENDIXES A Acronyms 431 B Agenda: Research Conference on Racial Trends in the United States 434 C Biographical Sketches 439 Index 447

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I Terminology Used in This Report As many of the authors point out, the term “race” as used to categorize ethnic origins of human beings is a social construct and has no biological basis. Nevertheless, we have come to identify certain terms and names with certain groups of people. The variety of those terms was reflected in the various authors’ usage choices; often, more than one term was used for the same group in the same paper. For the purposes of these volumes, we will use the terms as recommended by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in 1999: it coded race into five single-race groups: White, Black, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian or Pacific Islander, and Other. These terms are defined the terms as follows: American Indian or Alaska Native. A person having origins in any of the original peoples of North and South America (including Central America), and who maintains tribal affiliation or community attachment. Asian. A person having origins in any of the original peoples of the Far East, Southeast Asia, or the Indian subcontinent including, for example, Cambodia, China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippine Islands, Thailand, and Vietnam. Black or African American. A person having origins in any of the black racial groups of Africa. Terms such as “Haitian” or “Negro” can be used in addition to “Black or African American.”

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander. A person having origins in any of the original peoples of Hawaii, Guam, Samoa, or other Pacific Islands. White. A person having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa. Hispanic or Latino. With respect to ethnicity, is defined as: Hispanic or Latino. A person of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race. The term “Spanish origin” can be used in addition to “Hispanic or Latino.” (Note: A Hispanic person can be Black or White.) Again, for the purposes of brevity and consistency, the terms used throughout these volumes are those recommended by OMB—American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian or Pacific Islander, Black, Hispanic, and White. Where necessary to distinguish, non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White are used. SOURCE: Tabulation Working Group, Interagency Committee for the Review of Standards for Data on Race and Ethnicity. 1999. Draft Provisional Guidance on the Implementation of the 1997 Standards for the Collection of Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity (3–5, 65; February 17, 1999). Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget.

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America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume I AMERICA BECOMING

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