NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
Support for this project was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NASW-4938 order No. 109. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency.
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PANEL ON ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF AVIATION
Members
PAUL WINE (Chair),
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia
GEORGE CARRIER,
Harvard University (Emeritus), Boston, Massachusetts
DAVID ERICKSON III,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
NICHOLAS KRULL,
Federal Aviation Administration and American Airlines (retired)
JOHN MCCONNELL,
York University, Ontario, Canada
PHILIPPE MIRABEL,
Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER,
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, New York
KAREN ROSENLOF,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado
LYNN RUSSELL,
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
CHESTER SPICER,
Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio
Staff
LAURIE GELLER, Program Officer
TENECIA BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
Members
ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair),
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair),
IT Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.
SUSAN K. AVERY,
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
LANCE F. BOSART,
State University of New York, Albany
MARVIN A. GELLER,
State University of New York, Stony Brook
CHARLES E. KOLB,
Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
ROGER A. PIELKE, JR.,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ROBERT T. RYAN,
WRC-TV, Washington, D.C.
MARK R. SCHOEBERL,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE,
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROBERT A. WELLER,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
ERIC F. WOOD,
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Staff
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, Jr., Director
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
Members
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
RICHARD A. CONWAY,
Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S. Charleston, West Virginia
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
THOMAS J. GRAFF,
Environmental Defense Fund, Oakland, California
EUGENIA KALNAY,
University of Maryland, College Park
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE,
Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE,
Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.
BRAD MOONEY
(U.S. Navy, Retired), J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
HUGH C. MORRIS,
El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia
H. RONALD PULLIAM,
University of Georgia, Athens
MILTON RUSSELL,
University of Tennessee, Knoxville
THOMAS C. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland, College Park
ANDREW R. SOLOW,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,
Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK,
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
Staff
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H. SYMMIES, Associate Executive Director
CRAIG SCHIFFRIES, Associate Executive Director for Special Projects
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
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Preface
The NRC Panel on the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation (PAEAN) was established to provide guidance to NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Program (AEAP) by evaluating the appropriateness of the program's research plan, appraising the project-sponsored results relative to the current state of scientific knowledge, identifying key scientific uncertainties, and suggesting research activities likely to reduce those uncertainties.
Over the last few years, the panel has written periodic reviews of both the subsonic aviation (Subsonic Assessment—SASS) and the supersonic aviation (Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft—AESA) components of AEAP, including: An Interim Review of the Subsonic Assessment Project (1997); An Interim Assessment of AEAP's Emissions Characterization and Near-Field Interactions Elements (1997); An Interim Review of the AESA Project: Science and Progress (1998); Atmospheric Effects of aviation: A Review of NASA's Subsonic Assessment Project (1998). This report constitutes the final review of AESA and will be the last report written by this panel. The primary audience for these reports is the program managers and scientists affiliated with AEAP, although in some cases the topics discussed are of interest to a wider audience.
Since the panel was established, the membership has rotated periodically with the balance of expertise shifting to optimally suit the study at hand. For the period that covered this phase of their work, the panel consisted of nine people with expertise in stratospheric chemistry, atmospheric dynamics, aerosols and heterogeneous chemistry, chemical kinetics, chemical transport modeling, climate modeling, aircraft plume/wake processes, aircraft engine technology and emissions, and related policy issues.
The panel met three times to work on this particular evaluation. At these meetings, the panel received detailed briefings from the managers and lead scientists of AESA and from a wide variety of experts (from both inside and outside of NASA) on the different topics covered by this evaluation. We are grateful to all these people for the time they took to assist the panel in its work. Finally, we appreciate the support provided by the NRC staff throughout this study.
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Guy Brasseur, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Thomas Graedel, Yale University
Harold Johnston, University of California, Berkeley
Murry Salby, University of Colorado, Boulder
Drew Shindell, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Ian Waitz, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Leah Williams, SRI International
James Charles Wilson, University of Denver
While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authors and the NRC.
