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A Review of NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft Project

Panel on Atmospheric Effects of Aviation

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington DC



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A Review of NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft Project Panel on Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington DC

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NASW-4938 order No. 109. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06589-5 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area) www.nap.edu Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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PANEL ON ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF AVIATION Members PAUL WINE (Chair), Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia GEORGE CARRIER, Harvard University (Emeritus), Boston, Massachusetts DAVID ERICKSON III, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado NICHOLAS KRULL, Federal Aviation Administration and American Airlines (retired) JOHN MCCONNELL, York University, Ontario, Canada PHILIPPE MIRABEL, Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, New York KAREN ROSENLOF, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado LYNN RUSSELL, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey CHESTER SPICER, Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio Staff LAURIE GELLER, Program Officer TENECIA BROWN, Senior Program Assistant

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BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE Members ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair), IT Group, Inc., Washington, D.C. SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts ROGER A. PIELKE, JR., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ROBERT T. RYAN, WRC-TV, Washington, D.C. MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts ROBERT A. WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Staff ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, Jr., Director LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant

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COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES Members GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville RICHARD A. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S. Charleston, West Virginia THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut THOMAS J. GRAFF, Environmental Defense Fund, Oakland, California EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. BRAD MOONEY (U.S. Navy, Retired), J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia HUGH C. MORRIS, El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens MILTON RUSSELL, University of Tennessee, Knoxville THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park ANDREW R. SOLOW, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California Staff ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY H. SYMMIES, Associate Executive Director CRAIG SCHIFFRIES, Associate Executive Director for Special Projects JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

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Preface The NRC Panel on the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation (PAEAN) was established to provide guidance to NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Program (AEAP) by evaluating the appropriateness of the program's research plan, appraising the project-sponsored results relative to the current state of scientific knowledge, identifying key scientific uncertainties, and suggesting research activities likely to reduce those uncertainties. Over the last few years, the panel has written periodic reviews of both the subsonic aviation (Subsonic Assessment—SASS) and the supersonic aviation (Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft—AESA) components of AEAP, including: An Interim Review of the Subsonic Assessment Project (1997); An Interim Assessment of AEAP's Emissions Characterization and Near-Field Interactions Elements (1997); An Interim Review of the AESA Project: Science and Progress (1998); Atmospheric Effects of aviation: A Review of NASA's Subsonic Assessment Project (1998). This report constitutes the final review of AESA and will be the last report written by this panel. The primary audience for these reports is the program managers and scientists affiliated with AEAP, although in some cases the topics discussed are of interest to a wider audience. Since the panel was established, the membership has rotated periodically with the balance of expertise shifting to optimally suit the study at hand. For the period that covered this phase of their work, the panel consisted of nine people with expertise in stratospheric chemistry, atmospheric dynamics, aerosols and heterogeneous chemistry, chemical kinetics, chemical transport modeling, climate modeling, aircraft plume/wake processes, aircraft engine technology and emissions, and related policy issues.

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The panel met three times to work on this particular evaluation. At these meetings, the panel received detailed briefings from the managers and lead scientists of AESA and from a wide variety of experts (from both inside and outside of NASA) on the different topics covered by this evaluation. We are grateful to all these people for the time they took to assist the panel in its work. Finally, we appreciate the support provided by the NRC staff throughout this study. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Guy Brasseur, National Center for Atmospheric Research Thomas Graedel, Yale University Harold Johnston, University of California, Berkeley Murry Salby, University of Colorado, Boulder Drew Shindell, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Ian Waitz, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Leah Williams, SRI International James Charles Wilson, University of Denver While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authors and the NRC.

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Contents     Executive Summary   1 1   Introduction   5 2   Scientific Discussion   8     Gas Phase Aircraft Emissions,   8     Aircraft Particle Formation and Emissions,   12     Atmospheric Transport,   16     Impacts on Ozone,   18     Impacts on Climate,   25     Modeling Issues,   27     Field Campaigns,   32 3   Recommendations   35 4   Future Directions   38     References   42     Acronyms   49

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