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Research Agenda for Test Methods and Models to Simulate the Accelerated Aging of Infrastructure Materials Report of a Workshop Board on infrastructure and the Constructed Environment National Materials Advisory Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS WASHINGTON, D.C. 1999

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter ofthe National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is President of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This study was supported by Grant CMS-9732589 from the National Science Foundation to the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organization or agency that provided support for this oroiect. ISBN 0-309-06384-1 ~A ~ A ~JO Available in limited supply Mom: Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment, HA 274, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418, (202) 334-3376 Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. . . 11

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COMMITTEE TO DEVELOP A RESEARCH AGENDA FOR TEST METHODS AND MODELS TO SIMULATE THE ACCELERATED AGING OF INFRASTRUCTURE MATERIALS DAVID MORRISON, chair, North Carolina State University, Raleigh CHARLES E. BAKIS, Pennsylvania State University, University Park ALASTAIR N. CORMACK, Alfred University, Alfred, New York THOMAS GATES, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia CAROLYN HANSSON, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario DAVID JOHNSON, Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, New Jersey RICHARD SALZBRENNER, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico ROBB THOMSON, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, Maryland ANN CHIDESTER VAN ORDEN,* Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia JOHN T. WATSON, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland * deceased Staff RICHARD G. LITTLE, Study Director ROBERT M. EHRENREICH, Senior Pro ject Officer CHARLES MACH, Project Officer LORI DUPREE, Administrative Associate PAT WILLIAMS, Project Assistant Sponsor Liaisons - KEN P. CHONG, National Science Foundation JORN LARSEN-BASSE, National Science Foundation . . .

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BOARD ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE CONSTRUCTED ENVIRONMENT JAMES O. JIRSA, chair, University of Texas, Austin BRENDA MYERS BOHEKE, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Tnc., Herndon, Virginia JACK E. BUFFINGTON, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville RICHARD DATTNER, Richard Dattner Architect, P.C., New York, New York CLAIRE FELBINGER, American University, Washington, D.C. AMY GLASMEIER, Pennsylvania State University, University Park CHRISTOPHER M. GORDON, Massachusetts Port Authority, Boston NEIL GRIGG, Colorado State University, Fort Collins DELON HAMPTON, Delon Hampton and Associates, Washington, D.C. GEORGE D. LEAL, Dames and Moore, Inc., Los Angeles, California VIVIAN LOFTNESS, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania MARTHA A. ROZELLE, The Rozelle Group, Ltd., Phoenix, Arizona SARAH SLAUGHTER, Massachusetts institute of Technology, Cambridge RAE ZIMMERMAN, New York University, New York Staff RICHARD G. LITTLE, Director, Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment LYNDA L. STANLEY, Director, Federal Facilities Council JOHN A. WALEWSKI, Program Officer LORI JACKSON, Administrative Associate AMANDA PICHA, Administrative Assistant IV

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NATIONAL MATERIALS ADVISORY BOARD EDGAR A. STARKE, JR., chair, University of Virginia, Charlottesville JESSE (JACK) BEAUCHAMP, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena FRANCIS DISALVO, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York EARL DOWELL, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina EDWARD C. DOWLING, Cleveland Cliffs, Inc., Cleveland, Ohio THOMAS EAGAR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge ANTHONY G. EVANS, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey ALASTAIR M. GLASS, Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, New Jersey MARTIN E. GLICKSMAN, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York JOHN A.S. GREEN, The Aluminum Association, Inc., Washington, D.C. SIEGFRIED S. HECKER, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico JOHN H. HOPPS, JR., Morehouse College, Atlanta, Georgia MICHAEL JAFFEE, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey SYLVIA M. JOHNSON, SR] International, MenTo Park, California SHEILA F. KIA, General Motors Research and Development Center, Warren, Michigan LISA KLEIN, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey HARRY LIPSITT, Wright State University (emeritus), Yellow Springs, Ohio ALAN G. MILLER, Boeing Commercial Airplane Group, Seattle, Washington ROBERT C. PFAHL, JR., Motorola, Schaumburg, Illinois JULIA PHILLIPS, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico KENNETH L. REIFSNIDER, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg JAMES WAGNER, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio JULIA WEERTMAN, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois BILL G.W. YEE, Pratt and Whitney, West Palm Beach, Florida RICHARD CHAIT, Director v

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In Memoriam The committee dedicates this report to the memory of Ann Chidester Van Orden, friend and colleague, who passed away while the report was in preparation. She will be missed by all who knew her. Vl

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Acknowledgements This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and knowledge of the subject matter, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the NRC in making this report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Robert Eagan, Sandia National Laboratories; Richard Gangloff, University of Virginia; James Jirsa, University of Texas; Charles Kurkjian, Telcordia Technologies, inc.; ATton Romig, Ir., Sandia National Laboratories; George Scherer, Princeton University. While these individuals provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of the report rests with the authoring committee and the NRC. . . V11

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 WORKSHOP SYNOPSIS AND COMMITTEE FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS... --- Introduction, 3 Background, 3 Organization of the Workshop, 4 Committee Findings and Recommendations, 5 Life-Prediction Modeling, 7 Accelerated-Testing Methods, 9 Limitations and Barriers, 1 1 1 2 BACKGROUND PRESENTATIONS 12 Five Overview Briefings, 12 Infiastructure Aging and Deterioration John M. Hanson, 13 InDastructure Considerations: Surgical Implant Devices Jack E. Lemons and John Anderson, 1 5 As High Performance Integrated Circuits Enter the National (and International) InDastructure, How Do We Know They Are Reliable? Richard Wachnik, 15 Durable Glass for Thousands of Years? That is the Question. Carol M. Jantzen, 17 Life-Cycle Performance in the Electric Utility Industry John Stringer, 1 Two Focus Briefings, ~ 9 Life-Prediction Approaches for Infrastructure Applications Kenneth Reifsnider, 20 Accelerated-Testing Approaches for Infrastructure Applications Jonathan W. Martin, 21 IX

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APPENDIXES A Workshop Agenda.. B Biographical Sketches of Committee Members C Workshop Participants x 25 ..27 29