Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter

• II •

Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio

Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology

Commission on Life Sciences

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter • II • Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Commission on Life Sciences Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This project was supported by Contract No. 68-C-98-003 between the National Academy of Sciences and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 99-66283 International Standard Book Number 0-309-06638-7 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio COMMITTEE ON RESEARCH PRIORITIES FOR AIRBORNE PARTICULATE MATTER JONATHAN SAMET (Chair), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland GLEN CASS, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California JUDITH CHOW, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada BART E. CROES, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, California ROBERT E. FORSTER, The University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania DANIEL S. GREENBAUM, Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts MAUREEN HENDERSON, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington PHILIP K. HOPKE, Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York PETROS KOUTRAKIS, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario PAUL LIOY, University of Medicine and Dentistry-New Jersey, Piscataway, New Jersey JOE L. MAUDERLY, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico ROGER O. McCLELLAN, Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina GÜNTER OBERDÖRSTER, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York REBECCA PARKIN, George Washington University, Washington, D.C. JOYCE E. PENNER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan RICHARD SCHLESINGER, New York University School of Medicine, Tuxedo, New York FRANK E. SPEIZER, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts MARK UTELL, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York RONALD WHITE, American Lung Association, Washington, D.C. WARREN WHITE, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri RONALD WYZGA, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California TERRY F. YOSIE, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia Project Staff JAMES J. REISA, Principal Staff Officer KULBIR BAKSHI, Senior Staff Officer RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Staff Officer EILEEN ABT, Research Associate JAMIE YOUNG, Research Associate LEE PAULSON, Editor MILLICENT ANDERSON, Assistant to the Director TRACIE HOLBY, Senior Project Assistant

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle, Washington DONALD MATTISON (Vice Chair), March of Dimes, White Plains, New York DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas MAY R. BERENBAUM, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois EULA BINGHAM, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio PAUL BUSCH, Malcolm Pimie, Inc., White Plains, New York PETER L. DEFUR, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia DAVID L. EATON, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington ROBERT A. FROSCH, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JOHN GERHART, University of California, Berkeley, California MARK HARWELL, University of Miami, Miami, Florida ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico CAROL HENRY, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia BARBARA HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario JAMES A. MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan, Utah MARIO J. MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts CHARLES O'MELIA, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley, California MARGARET STRAND, Oppenheimer Wolff Donnelly & Bayh, LLP, Washington, D.C. TERRY F. YOSIE, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia Senior Staff JAMES J. REISA, Director DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied Ecology CAROL A. MACZKA, Senior Program Director for Toxicology and Risk Assessment RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology LEE R. PAULSON, Program Director for Resource Management

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio COMMISSION ON LIFE SCIENCES MICHAEL T. CLEGG (Chair), University of California, Riverside, California PAUL BERG (Vice Chair), Stanford University, Stanford, California FREDERICK R. ANDERSON, Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, Washington, D.C. JOHN C. BAILAR III, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois JOANNA BURGER, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey SHARON L. DUNWOODY, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin DAVID EISENBERG, University of California, Los Angeles, California JOHN EMMERSON, Portland, Oregon NEAL FIRST, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin DAVID J. GALAS, Chiroscience R&D Inc., Bothell, Washington DAVID V. GOEDDEL, Tularik, Inc., South San Francisco, California ARTURO GOMEZ-POMPA, University of California, Riverside, California COREY S. GOODMAN, University of California, Berkeley, California HENRY HEIKKINEN, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, Colorado BARBARA S. HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina HANS J. KENDE, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan CYNTHIA KENYON, University of California, San Francisco, California MARGARET G. KIDWELL, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona BRUCE R. LEVIN, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia OLGA F. LINARES, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Miami, Florida DAVID LIVINGSTON, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts DONALD R. MATTISON, March of Dimes, White Plains, New York ELLIOT M. MEYEROWITZ, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California ROBERT T. PAINE, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington RONALD R. SEDEROFF, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina ROBERT R. SOKAL, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York CHARLES F. STEVENS, The Salk Institute, La Jolla, California SHIRLEY M. TILGHMAN, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey JOHN L. VANDEBERG, Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research, San Antonio, Texas RAYMOND L. WHITE, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah Staff WARREN R. MUIR, Executive Director JACQUELINE K. PRINCE, Financial Officer BARBARA B. SMITH, Administrative Associate KIT W. LEE, Senior Program Assistant

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia RICHARD A. CONWAY (retired), Union Carbide Corporation, South Charleston, West Virginia THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut THOMAS J. GRAFF, Environmental Defense Fund, Oakland, California EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C. KAI LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. JOHN B. MOONEY, JR., J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia HUGH C. MORRIS, El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia MILTON RUSSELL, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland ANDREW R. SOLOW, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California Staff ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director CRAIG SCHIFFRIES, Associate Executive Director for Special Projects JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Ozone-Forming Potential of Reformulated Gasoline (1999) Risk-Based Waste Classification in California (1999) Arsenic in Drinking Water (1999) Research Priorities for Airbome Particulate Matter: I. Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio (1998) Brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (1998) The National Research Council's Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years (1997) Toxicologic Assessment of the Army's Zinc Cadmium Sulfide Dispersion Tests (1997) Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996) Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996) Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995) Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995) Biologic Markers (5 reports, 1989–1995) Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (3 reports, 1994–1995) Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994) Ranking Hazardous Waste Sites for Remedial Action (1994) Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993) Issues in Risk Assessment (1993) Setting Priorities for Land Conservation (1993) Protecting Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas (1993) Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992) Hazardous Materials on the Public Lands (1992) Science and the National Parks (1992) Animals as Sentinels of Environmental Health Hazards (1991) Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program, Volumes I–IV (1991–1993) Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991) Monitoring Human Tissues for Toxic Substances (1991) Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991) Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990) Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academy Press (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 www.nap.edu

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth 1. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio PREFACE A major research effort is under way to improve scientific understanding of airborne particulate matter and its effects on human health. Requested and funded by Congress, and conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), other federal and state government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations, this research effort is directed at reducing the scientific and technical uncertainties in the evidence related to regulation of airborne particulate matter in the United States. At the request of Congress and EPA, the National Research Council's Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter is independently advising and monitoring the implementation of the research. The committee's first report, Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I. Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio, was released in March 1998. It identified 10 high-priority research topics linked to key policy-related scientific uncertainties and presented a 13-year "research investment portfolio" containing recommended short-term and long-term timing, phasing, and estimated costs of research on each topic. The committee is pleased to note that Congress, EPA, and the scientific community have given strong support to the committee's recommendations and have implemented substantial changes in research efforts in response to the first report. This is the second of four planned reports by the committee. In this report, the committee describes its plans for monitoring the progress of research. In addition, the research recommendations from the com-

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio mittee's first report are reviewed and updated, and two of the recommended research areas are substantially revised. Subsequent reports in 2000 and 2002 will describe and evaluate the results of the research. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Arthur DuBois, Yale University; Sheldon Friedlander, University of California at Los Angeles; Robert Frosch, Harvard University; Carol Henry, Chemical Manufacturers Association; Donald Hornig (review monitor), Harvard University; Morton Lippmann, New York University; Donald Mattison (review coordinator), March of Dimes Birth Defects Foundation; Thomas Peterson, University of Arizona; and Robert Phalen, University of California at Irvine. While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the NRC. The committee gratefully acknowledges John Bachmann, Daniel Costa, Robert Devlin, William Farland, Judith Graham, Lester Grant, Henry Longest, Peter Preuss, Frank Princiotta, Kenneth Reid, Lawrence Reiter, Richard Scheffe, John Vandenberg, and James Vickery of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; George Malindzak of the National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences; Daniel Albritton of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Doyle Pendleton of Southwest Texas State University; Charles Pietarinen of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection; Melvin Zeldin of the South Coast Air Quality Management District; and Steven Cadle of General Motors (representing NARSTO, a multinational North American consortium for atmospheric research in support of air-quality management) for making presentations or providing information to the committee.

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio In addition, we are grateful to the 40 or so EPA and EPA-supported scientists who made research poster presentations to the committee on June 23, 1998, in Research Triangle Park, NC. We are grateful for the assistance of the NRC staff in preparing the report. Staff members who contributed to this effort are James J. Reisa, director of the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology and principal staff officer for the committee; Raymond Wassel and Kulbir Bakshi, senior staff officers; Laurie Geller, staff officer; Eileen Abt and Jamie Young, research associates; Lee Paulson, editor; Millicent Anderson, assistant to the director; and Tracie Holby, senior program assistant. Finally, I would like to thank all the members of the committee for their dedicated efforts throughout the development of this report. Jonathan Samet, M.D., M.S. Chair, Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio CONTENTS     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   THE COMMITTEE'S FIRST REPORT AND ITS IMPACT.   17 2   EVALUATING RESEARCH IMPLEMENTATION AND PROGRESS   27 3   UPDATING THE RESEARCH PORTFOLIO   39     Research Topic 1: Outdoor Measures Versus Actual Human Exposures   39     Research Topic 2: Exposures of Susceptible Subpopulations to Toxic Particulate-Matter Components   44     Refocusing Research Topics 3 And 4   47     Research Topic 3 (Revised): Characterization of Emission Sources   54     Research Topic 4 (Revised): Air-Quality-Model Development and Testing   61     Research Topic 5: Assessment of Hazardous Particulate-Matter Components   75     Research Topic 6: Dosimetry: Deposition and Fate of Particles in the Respiratory Tract   78     Research Topic 7: Combined Effects of Particulate Matter and Gaseous Pollutants   81     Research Topic 8: Susceptible Subpopulations   84

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio     Research Topic 9: Mechanisms of Injury,   86     Research Topic 10: Analysis and Measurement,   90     The Updated Research Portfolio   93     REFERENCES   97 APPENDIX A   Biographical Information on the Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter   101 APPENDIX B   The Committee's Statement of Task   111 TABLES TABLE 1.1   EPA's Review And Implementation Timetable for Particulate-Matter Standards   18 TABLE 1.2   Key Scientific Uncertainties Related to the Source-to-Response Framework   21 TABLE 1.3   The Committee's Research Investment Portfolio   22 TABLE 1.4   EPA Budgets for Particulate Matter Research   23 TABLE 3.1   The Committee's Updated Research Portfolio for Fiscal Years 2000–2010   94 TABLE 3.2   The Committee's Technical Support Estimates   95 FIGURES FIGURE 1.1   A General Framework for Integrating Particulate-Matter Research   20 FIGURE 3.1   A Paradigm for Scientific And Technical Activities Related to Particulate Matter   49

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: • II •, Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: II. Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio

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