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The GEWEX Global Water Vapor Project (GVaP) U.S. Opportunities A brief report from the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Pane} Climate Research Committee Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Contract No. 50-DKNA-7-90052. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or any of its sub-agencies. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06642-5 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Box 285 Washington, D.C. 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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GLOBAL ENERGY AND WATER CYCLE EXPERIMENT (GEWEX) PANEL Members SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN (Chair), University of Arizona, Tucson WILFRIED BRUTSAERT, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York RICHARD E. CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado JAMES W. HURRELL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado SHAFIQUL ISLAM, University of Cincinnati, Ohio EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park DEVENDRA LAL, University of California at San Diego/Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, University of Washington, Seattle JOHN O. ROADS, University of California at San Diego/Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla RICHARD D. ROSEN, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts WILLIAM B. ROSSOW, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York EDWARD J. ZIPSER, University of Utah, Salt Lake City NRC Staff PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Director CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant

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CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE Members THOMAS KARL (Chair), National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina MAURICE BLACKMON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara JAMES GIRAYTYS, Consultant, Winchester, Virginia JAMES E. HANSEN, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York. New York PHILIP E. MERILEES, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network, Palisades, New York S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL, International Consultant, Paris, France STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana, Missoula EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle ANNE M. THOMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland ANDREW WEAVER, University of Victoria, British Columbia ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Ex Officio Members W. LAWRENCE GATES, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of Arizona, Tucson NRC Staff PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Director CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant 1V

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BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE Members ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair), I T Group, Inc., Washington, D.C. SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts ROGER A. PIELKE, JR., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ROBERT T. RYAN, WAC-TV, Washington, D.C. MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts ROBERT A. WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Ex Officio Members DONALD S. BURKE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland DARA ENTEKHAB1, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge THOMAS KARL, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of Arizona, Tucson PAUL WINE, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta NRC Staff ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer

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PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant Vl

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COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES Members GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville RICHARD A. CONWAY, South Charleston, West Virginia THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut THOMAS J. GRAFF, Environmental Defense Fund, Oakland, California EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. REAR ADM. JOHN B. MOONEY, JR., (U.S. Navy Retired), J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia HUGH C. MORRIS, E1 Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens MILTON RUSSELL, University of Tennessee, Knoxville THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park ANDREW SOLOW, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California NRC Staff ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Associate Executive Director CRAIG SCHIFFRIES, Associate Executive Director for Special Projects JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative & Financial Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst . V11

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. - vail

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Preface In 1998, the National Research Council's (NRC) Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Pane! was asked by the agencies of the U.S. Global Change Research Program to review the drain GEWEX Global Water Vapor Project (GVaP) Science and Implementation Plans and to advise on U.S. involvement in GVaP. The NRC GEWEX Pane! held meetings on October 8-9, 1998 and March 19, 1999 to hear presentations on GVaP and related topics. The pane} is grateful for presentations from John Bates, Moustafa Chahine, Ted Cress, Rex Fleming, John Gaynor, David Randel, Robert Schiffer, Pamela Stephens, and Thomas yonder Haar. At each of these meetings, closed sessions were also held to discuss GVaP and arrive at the consensus findings presented in this brief report. Throughout this study, the pane! and staff benefited considerably from consultations with Dian Gaffen and Paul Try. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible, and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: MOUSTAFA CHAHINE, Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology MARVIN GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook WILLIAM GUTOWSKI, Iowa State University 1X

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MARGARET LEMONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research JAN PAEGLE, University of Utah REBECCA ROSS, Air Resources Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ANDREW SOLOW, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution While the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. x