Notes

    1.  

    GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP) Office, 1999. A Prospectus for the GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP). Draft of July, 1999.

    The prospectus outlines GAPP as follows:

    "A highly successful GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP) will be completing its observational phase in March 2001. Although many of the shorter-term objectives of GCIP have been realized, its mission of 'developing a capability to predict variations in water resources on time scales up to seasonal and interannual as an integral part of a climate prediction system (NRC, 1998. [GCIP Report])' remains a challenge that will only be addressed through the development of a new understanding of land surface processes and the exploitation of new technologies. The program outlined in this prospectus extends the GCIP approach to other climate regions of the USA and also shifts the program focus from analysis to prediction in order to better position the science community to achieve the GCIP mission. To bridge the gap between the current understanding and capabilities of the climate community, and the requirements for a prediction capability that fully incorporates the controls of land surfaces on the climate system, appropriate components of the atmospheric and hydrologic research communities will develop science and implementation plans for the GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP)."

    "In order to achieve its overall mission, GAPP will pursue the two following primary objectives:

    • develop and demonstrate a capability to make reliable monthly to seasonal predictions of precipitation and land surface hydrologic variables as part of a global climate prediction system.

    • interpret and transfer the results of improved seasonal forecasts to appropriate agencies and organizations for the optimal management of the nation's water resources."



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Notes 1.   GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP) Office, 1999. A Prospectus for the GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP). Draft of July, 1999. The prospectus outlines GAPP as follows: "A highly successful GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP) will be completing its observational phase in March 2001. Although many of the shorter-term objectives of GCIP have been realized, its mission of 'developing a capability to predict variations in water resources on time scales up to seasonal and interannual as an integral part of a climate prediction system (NRC, 1998. [GCIP Report])' remains a challenge that will only be addressed through the development of a new understanding of land surface processes and the exploitation of new technologies. The program outlined in this prospectus extends the GCIP approach to other climate regions of the USA and also shifts the program focus from analysis to prediction in order to better position the science community to achieve the GCIP mission. To bridge the gap between the current understanding and capabilities of the climate community, and the requirements for a prediction capability that fully incorporates the controls of land surfaces on the climate system, appropriate components of the atmospheric and hydrologic research communities will develop science and implementation plans for the GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP)." "In order to achieve its overall mission, GAPP will pursue the two following primary objectives: • develop and demonstrate a capability to make reliable monthly to seasonal predictions of precipitation and land surface hydrologic variables as part of a global climate prediction system. • interpret and transfer the results of improved seasonal forecasts to appropriate agencies and organizations for the optimal management of the nation's water resources."

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    Specific U.S. agency plans for participation in GAPP have not yet been formulated. 2.   NASA is currently in the process of drafting a plan for its future Global Water and Energy Cycle research activities. 3.   NSF's Geosciences Directorate is in the process of creating a long-range plan for its activities through 2010, termed GEO-2000. A draft of the GEO-2000 vision statement can be found at: http://www.geo.nsf.gov/adgeo/geo2000/. The objective of GEO-2000 is to ''identify exciting prospects for major advances in understanding the interactions among the full suite of Earth system components.'' As part of NSF's planning, a workshop was convened in Albuquerque, NM (January 31-February 1, 1999) to provide input to the formulation of the hydrologic component of GEO-2000. A summary of the meeting (http://cires.colorado.edu/hydrology/) states that: ". . . Researchers have not been able to quantify many fluxes within the water and companion cycles because they lacked tools to collect and analyze data that capture the complexity and scales at which hydrologic systems operate. The problem is particularly critical where water moves through a phase change or from one medium to another at the medium to large watershed scale where multiple disciplines must work together. New observing capabilities (radar, satellite images, isotope tracers, etc.) and new mathematical tools (fractals, random perturbations of dynamical systems, etc.) provide needed technology, but hydrology lacks an integrated observational system. Educational programs do not provide adequate training for this new era. Example issues are 1) measuring precipitation on, evapotranspiration from, recharge into, and moisture storage within watershed reservoirs where studies are stymied by a lack of mass balances for water, sediments, solutes, etc.; and 2) quantifying the heterogeneous properties of soils and aquifers from geologic understanding for water supply which is threatened by pollution plumes. Watershed-scale data can be used to link disparate space-time scales and couple physical, chemical, and biological states. Scientists can be educated to probe these integrated data sets with advanced diagnostics, computational experiments, and analyses of process, pattern, and probability.

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    The many scientists who interacted in this assessment have firmly concluded that substantive progress requires: 1) Comprehensive, multidisciplinary studies of hydrological systems in critical geochemical, geologic, and ecological settings at field scales. 2) Upgrading geoscience education that trains graduate researchers with emerging tools and K-12 youngsters in basic understanding of geoscience and the water cycle. 3) A 'Hydrologic Observing Facility' to facilitate deployment of cutting-edge instrumentation and organization of data sets for efficient access. A science framework with this vision will produce clear and visible payoffs for researchers, educators, and water managers through a substantially improved understanding of risk, vulnerability, and predictability of water resources under growing environmental stresses." 4.   National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges (NASULGC), the Universities Council on Water Resources, and the National Institute for Water Resources, 1999. The National Water Initiative. Draft of March 11, 1999. "The National Water Initiative aims to meet grand challenges facing the nation's water resources in the 21st. Century, increase the nation's adaptability in the face of greater pressure on these resources, and equip citizens and decision-makers with the knowledge necessary to protect, sustain, and manage the nation's waters as vital national assets. The Initiative also aims to contribute to the global base of knowledge increasingly needed for sustainable water management systems worldwide in a variety of landscapes and social, cultural, and economic conditions. . . The nation's waters—coastal and estuarine, rivers, lakes, and ground water—are essential and priceless national assets. Disturbingly, they also face daunting grand national challenges: (i) water, quality, and health; (ii) hydrologic hazards and human-altered hydrologic systems; (iii) environmental and ecosystem services; (iv) environmental remediation and restoration; (v) changing use and competition; (vi) water delivery and use systems, including renovation and rehabilitation; (vii) ground water management, including conjunctive use; and (viii) public understanding for sustainability of national water assets. . . . The National Water Initiative aims to advance research-based knowledge and its timely application to grand challenges to our nation's waters. To do this, the Initiative advocates an 8-part action program: (i) establish a National Partnership to advance and achieve the vision; (ii) develop a Comprehensive Research Strategy to ensure the knowledge base for addressing and resolving grand challenges to the nation's water in a timely manner; (iii) support research—especially fundamental and adaptive studies—through a new, federally-

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    funded, comprehensive research program whose central element is extramural, merit-based, competitively-awarded research grants; (iv) apply research-based knowledge expeditiously through a national network of centers, with specific attention to grand challenges and their specific problems; (v) establish and sustain National Observing Systems (including present systems), study areas, and tools and methods for continuous assessment of the nation's water systems; (vi) facilitate Collaboration and Integration among members of the national partnership; (vii) sustain a coordinated national program for Education and Communication for publics and professionals on the value of the nation's water resources and need for their prudent stewardship; and (viii) conduct systematic and comprehensive Assessment and Evaluation of the results of the overall Initiative. The initiative is being developed through a National Partnership among federal, state, and other public agencies; private sector users; the public; and the nation's universities and colleges. The Initiative has been endorsed by the National Association of State Universities and Land-Grant Colleges, the Universities Council on Water Resources, and the National Institute for Water Resources. Positive and helpful discussions have been held with senior federal officials. Discussions with private and public sector leaders and workshops are planned for 1999." 5.   The rationale for the establishment of a U.S. GEWEX Program Office and collateral infrastructure with a U.S. CLIVAR Program Office is discussed in a previous report of this panel: NRC, 1998a. GEWEX-CLIVAR: Coordination of U.S. Activities. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 22 pp. This report states that: "There is no interagency mechanism within the United States to ensure that this type of coupling [between GEWEX and CLIVAR] will occur, nor is there one to ensure that the individual GEWEX activities within the United States are coordinated. A high degree of coordination between GEWEX- and CLIVAR-related activities would help ensure that the advances in one program directly feed into the other, minimize duplication of effort, and promote the most efficient avenues for progress. Despite the somewhat higher infrastructural burden that may come with enhanced coordination, the reality is that programs such as GEWEX and CLIVAR cannot work collaterally without having collateral infrastructures. One practicable vehicle for bringing about the necessary inter- and intra-program coupling may be the establishment of a U.S. GEWEX Program Office that parallels and is closely integrated with the one being discussed for CLIVAR." Following the publication of this report, this set of issues was discussed at length at the March 18–19, 1999 NRC GEWEX Panel meeting in Irvine, California. For a summary of the discussion at this meeting, see: http://nationalacademies.org/basc.

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6.   USGCRP, 1999. Our Changing Planet. The FY2000 U.S. Global Change Research Program Implementation Plan and Budget Overview. A report by the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Committee on Environment and Natural Resources of the National Science and Technology Council, pp. 100. "USGCRP Program Elements include: . . . 6. The Global Water Cycle, with a focus on improving our understanding of the movement of water through the land, atmosphere, and ocean, and on how global change may increase or decrease regional water availability." ". . .The study of the global water cycle is the unifying theme that can bridge the gap in the spatial-scale spectrum between atmospheric and hydrological sciences. This issue is in its first year and will be implemented through coordinated U.S. and international programs. Planning is underway to develop joint interagency programs in the U.S. and coordination with international programs [e.g., the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), the Program on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR), Biological Aspects of the Hydrologic Cycle (BAHC), and potentially a more fully coordinated international Hydrology and Water Cycle Program]. The primary goal of this research is a greater understanding of the seasonal, annual, and interannual mean state and variability of water and energy cycles at continental-to-global scales, and thus a greater understanding of the interactions among the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic hydrosphere in the Earth's climate system. This understanding will be achieved through a combination of observations, modeling, and analysis at a range of spatial and temporal scales, and will provide the foundation for understanding the relationship between weather and climate. . . . An important element of the research program is a quantitative assessment of the improved understanding for weather prediction and for water and environmental management. In addition, advances in understanding the relationships between hydrologic processes and climate will lead directly to better inferences regarding climate change and its subsequent hydrologic impacts at regional-to-global scales." 7.   International GEWEX Project Office (IGPO), 1999. Scientific Plan for the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP): An Overview from a

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    GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel Perspective. Working Draft of April 29, 1999. "ABSTRACT The [international] GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel (GHP), through its five Continental Scale Experiments (BALTEX [Baltic Sea Experiment], GAME [GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment], GCIP [GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project], LBA [Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia], and MAGS [Mackenzie GEWEX Study]) is initiating a cooperative effort for a Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) in the 2001–2002 time period to take advantage of the first opportunity to compile continental data sets on a global scale derived from a new generation of satellites [e.g., EOS AM-1, Landsat-7, Envisat, ADEOS-2, EOS PM-1, and NOAA K/L/M]. The GHP perspective given in this overview is particularly focused on the land surface-atmospheric interactions and their impacts on the regional and larger scale climate systems as part of an overall scientific objective for CEOP: To understand and model the influence of continental hydroclimate processes on the predictability of global atmospheric circulation and changes in water resources, with a particular focus on the heat source and sink regions that drive and modify the climate system and anomalies.   This GHP perspective on CEOP can be much broader through cooperative efforts, which include the oceanographic community, the large scale climate modeling community, and Arctic researchers. Planning for these cooperative efforts is now in process and will be included in an updated version of this plan." 8.   NRC, 1998b. The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 364 pp. The full reference to hydrologic research is as follows: "We have identified a number of emerging basic research, technique, and technological developments that, on the basis of their intrinsic intellectual value and/or potential economic or societal payoff, should be given high priority in the coming decades. Here, these key developments are summarized, and specific recommendations based on them are offered. . ." ". . .5. Improved understanding of the hydrologic cycle and much better measurements of atmospheric water: Ongoing advances in understanding the control of atmospheric water (in all phases) will lead to

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    much improved understanding of and ability to predict a variety of dynamical systems. Critical physical processes include the control of water vapor by convection and cloud microphysics, and the coupling of the atmospheric boundary layer with the underlying surface. Improved understanding of these processes, together with the advent of much improved techniques for measuring soil properties, atmospheric water vapor, and condensed water, is essential for solving the difficult problem of quantitative precipitation forecasting and will be necessary for adequate modeling of climate as well." 9.   NRC, 1998c. Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade, Overview. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 69 pp. On page 24 the report states: "Similarly, water is at the heart of both the causes and effects of climate change. It is essential to establish rates of and possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and cloud water content (both liquid and ice). Additionally, better time series measurements are needed for water, runoff, river flow, and, most importantly, the quantities of water involved in various human uses. This crosscutting initiative can clearly build upon the progress made by the Global Water and Energy Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) in the World Climate Research Program and the Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle (BAHC) project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program." 10.   NRC, 1998d. GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP): A Review of Progress and Opportunities. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 93 pp. The GCIP report recommended "that GCIP focus its efforts in the following areas: • Develop accurate quantitative precipitation estimates based on high-resolution weather radar observations. • Develop improved large-scale estimates of soil moisture consistent with large-scale estimates of precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. • Further improve the coupling between atmospheric and land surface hydrologic models. • Develop and apply coupled land data assimilation systems. • Prepare data archives to facilitate future reanalyzes. • Foster active dialogue between GCIP and the water management community.

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    From a wider national perspective, GCIP does not address hydroclimatic phenomena that are characteristic of the semi-arid U.S. Southwest, a region where the availability of water is a critical resource issue as well as a challenging scientific problem. Applying the methodologies and technical facilities developed for GCIP to a study of the Colorado River basin and surrounding mountain regions is a challenge for the future." The impressive foundation for water and energy cycle research that has been built in the United States by GCIP is outlined in the Executive Summary of the NRC GCIP Report and described in more detail at the end of each of the report's chapters. 11.   Objectives of the GEWEX Program: • Determine the hydrological cycle and energy fluxes by means of global measurements of atmospheric and surface properties. • Model the global hydrological cycle and its impact on the atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces. • Develop the ability to predict the variations of global and regional hydrological processes and water resources, and their response to environmental change. • Advance the development of observing techniques, data management, and assimilation systems for operational application to long-range weather forecasts, hydrology, and climate predictions. 12.   Objectives of GCIP: • To determine the time and space variabilities of the hydrologic and energy budgets over a continental scale. • To develop and validate macroscale hydrological models, related high resolution atmospheric models, and coupled hydrological-atmospheric models. • To develop and validate information retrieval schemes incorporating existing and future satellite observations coupled with enhanced ground-based observations. • To provide a capability to translate the effects of future climate change into impacts on water resources on a regional basis.

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13.   NRC, 1999. Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 51 pp. Climate monitoring principle #7: ". . .Give the highest priority in the design and implementation of new sites or instrumentation within an observing system to data-poor regions, poorly observed variables, regions sensitive to change, and key measurements with inadequate temporal resolution. . ." 14.   These issues are discussed fully in: NRC, 1995. On the Full and Open Exchange of Scientific Data. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 21 pp. NRC, 1997. Bits of Power: Issues in Global Access to Scientific Data. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 250 pp. 15.   The GEWEX Radiation Projects are the following: Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Global Water Vapor Project (GVaP), International Satellite Climatology Project (ISCCP), and Surface Radiation Budget Project (SRB). The GEWEX Modeling and Prediction Projects are the following: Global Cloud System Study (GCSS), and Project for Intercomparison of Land Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS). 16.   The panel finds that one of the reasons that have been put forth for not co-locating the GEWEX office in the Washington area—i.e., a Washington location would not have the close ties to the academic community that a university-based Program Office might have—applies equally to both GEWEX and CLIVAR. The other reason that has been put forth—i.e., CLIVAR activities might dominate those of GEWEX—can be alleviated through the selection of a strong leader for the U.S. GEWEX office. 17.   One example is the set of problems associated with the absence of a coordinated, national climate modeling strategy. This situation is described in: NRC, 1998e. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 93 pp.