Attachment E

NRC, 1998e. GCIP: A Review of Progress and Opportunities. National Academy Press, Washington, DC. pp. 93.

E1. “..the [GEWEX] panel recommends the following objectives for GCIP:

  1. Determine and explain the annual, interannual, and spatial variability of the water and energy cycles within the Mississippi River basin.

  2. Develop and evaluate coupled hydrologic-atmospheric models at resolutions appropriate to large-scale continental basins.

  3. Develop and evaluate atmospheric, land, and coupled data assimilation schemes that incorporate both remote and in situ observations.

  4. Provide access to comprehensive in situ, remote sensing, and model output data sets for use in GCIP research and as a benchmark for future studies.

  5. Improve the utility of hydrologic predictions for water resources management up to seasonal and interannual time scales.” (pg. 1)

E2. “...the panel recommends that GCIP focus its efforts in the following areas:

  • Develop accurate quantitative precipitation estimates based on high-resolution weather radar observations.

  • Develop improved large-scale estimates of soil moisture consistent with large-scale estimates of precipitation, evaporation, and runoff.

  • Further improve the coupling between atmospheric and land surface hydrologic models.

  • Develop and apply coupled land data assimilation systems.

  • Prepare data archives to facilitate future reanalyses.

  • Foster active dialogue between GCIP and the water management community. ” (pg. 3)

E3. “RECOMMENDATIONS [Water and Energy Cycles]

...

Develop Improved Estimates of Precipitation, Longwave Radiation, and Land Water Storage Using Existing Observational Networks

...

Promote Innovative Developments and Applications of Promising Measurement Technologies That Support or Complement GCIP

...

Use Observations and Models to Evaluate the Local Factors and (in Collaboration with GOALS) Remote Influences that Govern Water and Energy Regimes in the GCIP Region

A major set of GCIP process issues concerns the dynamic interactions of atmosphere and land. What are the relative roles of land surface processes and remote forcing, such as ocean surface temperatures, in generating and modulating atmospheric and surface anomalies (precipitation, temperature, river discharge) in the Mississippi basin? Are anomalies in water storage and ocean surface temperatures effective predictors of atmospheric anomalies at monthly



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GEWEX—CLIVAR: Coordination of U.S. Activities Attachment E NRC, 1998e. GCIP: A Review of Progress and Opportunities. National Academy Press, Washington, DC. pp. 93. E1. “..the [GEWEX] panel recommends the following objectives for GCIP: Determine and explain the annual, interannual, and spatial variability of the water and energy cycles within the Mississippi River basin. Develop and evaluate coupled hydrologic-atmospheric models at resolutions appropriate to large-scale continental basins. Develop and evaluate atmospheric, land, and coupled data assimilation schemes that incorporate both remote and in situ observations. Provide access to comprehensive in situ, remote sensing, and model output data sets for use in GCIP research and as a benchmark for future studies. Improve the utility of hydrologic predictions for water resources management up to seasonal and interannual time scales.” (pg. 1) E2. “...the panel recommends that GCIP focus its efforts in the following areas: Develop accurate quantitative precipitation estimates based on high-resolution weather radar observations. Develop improved large-scale estimates of soil moisture consistent with large-scale estimates of precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. Further improve the coupling between atmospheric and land surface hydrologic models. Develop and apply coupled land data assimilation systems. Prepare data archives to facilitate future reanalyses. Foster active dialogue between GCIP and the water management community. ” (pg. 3) E3. “RECOMMENDATIONS [Water and Energy Cycles] ... Develop Improved Estimates of Precipitation, Longwave Radiation, and Land Water Storage Using Existing Observational Networks ... Promote Innovative Developments and Applications of Promising Measurement Technologies That Support or Complement GCIP ... Use Observations and Models to Evaluate the Local Factors and (in Collaboration with GOALS) Remote Influences that Govern Water and Energy Regimes in the GCIP Region A major set of GCIP process issues concerns the dynamic interactions of atmosphere and land. What are the relative roles of land surface processes and remote forcing, such as ocean surface temperatures, in generating and modulating atmospheric and surface anomalies (precipitation, temperature, river discharge) in the Mississippi basin? Are anomalies in water storage and ocean surface temperatures effective predictors of atmospheric anomalies at monthly

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GEWEX—CLIVAR: Coordination of U.S. Activities to interannual time scales? To what extent do human interventions (e.g., irrigation) influence the surface and atmospheric water and energy balances within the GCIP region? Additionally, there is a need to understand more fully the processes by which orography so strikingly controls precipitation at scales ranging from entire mountain ranges down to local orographic features. Some of these questions will have to be explored in conjunction with other projects, notably GOALS, to maximize the efficiency of research efforts. Use Observations and Models to Assess Quantitatively the Impacts of Individual Land Surface and Atmospheric Processes on Large-Scale Water and Energy Transport...” (pgs. 26-29) E4. “RECOMMENDATIONS [Coupled Land-Atmosphere Models] ... Further Test and Compare LSPs Improve Methodologies to Disaggregate Regional Model Output to the Scales of Hydrologic Processes ... Evaluate Model Representations of Atmospheric Mesoscale Circulation Induced by Landscape and Topography ... Improve the Parameterization of Clouds and Precipitation in Regional Models ...Cloud formation and dissipation are important processes because of their effects on the atmospheric and surface energy balance... ” (pgs. 39-42) E5. “Prediction of droughts would also have a great impact on water resources management, for both instream and offstream uses. At the decadal time scale, the ability to predict regional tendencies toward warmer or cooler and wetter or drier conditions will be beneficial when establishing policies impacting the planning of water resources supply systems and socioeconomic issues such as migration, industrialization, and urbanization.” (pg. 60) E6. “RECOMMENDATIONS [Application to Water Resources] ... Ensure That Hydrologic Data Sets Prepared Under GCIP Will Also Satisfy Modeling Requirements of the Water Resources Management Community ... Develop Better Characterization and Estimation of Precipitation Partitioning in Rainfall Runoff Models ... Develop Strategies to Monitor, Model, and Archive Soil Moisture Data at Appropriate Spatial and Temporal Resolutions ... Combine GCIP's Physically Driven Studies with Statistical Approaches in Water Resources Management ... Clarifying the role that GCIP might play in furthering understanding of hydrological and meteorological variabilities on seasonal to interannual and decade to century time scales must be given high priority. Would any aspect of this new understanding improve our ability to more accurately predict changes in the parameterization of probability distributions used in statistical methods in hydrology? Similarly, could an understanding of elementary processes provide the

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GEWEX—CLIVAR: Coordination of U.S. Activities capability to capture trends in the hydrologic regimes of a given region (e.g., moving toward wetter or drier climates in the next decade) or changes in their variability? This creates an opportunity for furthering cooperative research among the GEWEX, Climate Variability and Prediction Program (CLIVAR), and PACS communities. Foster an Interactive Dialogue with Water Resources Management Agencies in the Mississippi River Basin...” (pgs. 67-69)