NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Contract No. 50-DKNA-7-90052. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency.
Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
GLOBAL ENERGY AND WATER CYCLE EXPERIMENT (GEWEX) PANEL
Members
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN (Chair),
University of Arizona, Tucson
WILFRIED BRUTSAERT,
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
RICHARD E. CARBONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
JAMES W. HURRELL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
SHAFIQUL ISLAM,
University of Cincinnati, Ohio
EUGENIA KALNAY,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
DEVENDRA LAL,
University of California at San Diego / Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla
DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER,
University of Washington, Seattle
JOHN O. ROADS,
University of California at San Diego / Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla
RICHARD D. ROSEN,
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
WILLIAM B. ROSSOW,
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
EDWARD J. ZIPSER,
Texas A&M University, College Station
NRC Staff
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Study Director
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE
Members
THOMAS R. KARL (Chair),
National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina
ROBERT E. DICKINSON (Vice Chair),
University of Arizona, Tucson
MAURICE BLACKMON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
BERT BOLIN,
Osterskar, Sweden
JEFF DOZIER,
University of California, Santa Barbara
JAMES GIRAYTYS, Consultant,
Winchester, Virginia
JAMES E. HANSEN,
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
PHILIP E. MERILEES,
Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California
ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER,
Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network, Palisades, New York
S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL,
University of New Hampshire, Durham
STEVEN W. RUNNING,
University of Montana, Missoula
EDWARD S. SARACHIK,
University of Washington, Seattle
WILLIAM H. SCHLESINGER,
Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
KARL E. TAYLOR,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
ANNE M. THOMPSON,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
Ex Officio Members
DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON,
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York
W. LAWRENCE GATES,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN,
University of Arizona, Tucson
PETER J. WEBSTER,
University of Colorado, Boulder
NRC Staff
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
Members
ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair),
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair),
International Technology Corporation, Washington, D.C.
SUSAN K. AVERY,
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
LANCE F. BOSART,
State University of New York, Albany
MARVIN A. GELLER,
State University of New York, Stony Brook
DONALD M. HUNTEN,
University of Arizona, Tucson
JOHN IMBRIE,
Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
CHARLES E. KOLB,
Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
THOMAS J. LENNON,
WSI Corp., Billerica, Massachusetts
MARK R. SCHOEBERL,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE,
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
NRC Staff
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, Jr., Director
H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer
DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
CARTER FORD, Project Assistant
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
Members
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS,
Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JERRY F. FRANKLIN,
University of Washington, Seattle
B. JOHN GARRICK,
PLG, Inc., St. George, Utah
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE,
Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
JUDITH E. MCDOWELL,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE,
Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.
HUGH C. MORRIS,
Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
H. RONALD PULLIAM,
University of Georgia, Athens
THOMAS C. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland, College Park
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,
Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK,
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
NRC Staff
ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEWERS
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible, and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
DAVID BATTISTI, University of Washington, Seattle
RICHARD M. GOODY, Harvard University (emeritus), Cambridge, Massachusetts
GEORGE HORNBERGER, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
DOUGLAS MARTINSON, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York
PETER RAVEN, Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis
KEVIN TRENBERTH, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
While the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
