Atmospheric Change and the North American Transportation Sector: Summary of a Trilateral Workshop (1998)

4:00 - 6:30 PM

REGISTRATION — National Academy of Sciences; Washington, DC

2101 Constitution Ave. NW

5:00 PM

RECEPTION in the GREAT HALL

6:30 PM

EVENING EVENT:

Alternative Visions of the Automobile of the Future — A Discussion

CHRISTINE SLOAN — Technical Director, PNGV Program, General Motors

AMORY LOVINS — Director of Research, Rocky Mountain Institute & Director, The Hypercar Center

8:30 AM

OPENING of the WORKSHOP

Workshop Chair: F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND

8:45 AM

KEYNOTE ADDRESS:

DAVID GARDINER — Assistant Administrator for Policy, Planning & Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

9:20 AM

PANEL I: The North American Transportation Sector

This panel will examine the importance of the transportation sector in North America, the societal and economic forces that will drive its evolution over the next several decades, and the possible outcomes of these forces in shaping its development

Chair: MARIANO BAUER

Rapporteurs: C. MICHAEL WALTON & STEVE PLOTKIN

9:20 - 9:30

OVERVIEW by the panel chaiR

9:30 - 9:50

DAMIAN KULASH — The Eno Foundation

• What is the present structure and size of the transportation sector in North America?

• How vital is expansion of the transportation sector to further economic development and integration of the North American economies?

9:50 - 10:10

RICHARD MUDGE — Apogee Research, Inc.

• What future technological and economic changes are likely to influence the development or operation of the North American transportation sector?

10:10 - 10:30

BREAK

10:30 - 10:50

ALAN PISARSKI — Consultant

• How will population and income growth, lifestyle preferences and the pursuit of economic advancement affect the structure and functioning of North American transportation systems?

10:50 - 11:10

LEE SCHIPPER — LBNL & International Energy Agency

• How does the transportation sector contribute to global change?

• How will emissions from this sector change in response to changes in its structure and operation?

• What are the key uncertainties in future projections of transportation emissions, and how can these uncertainties be incorporated into assessments of future impacts?

11:10 - 11:45

PANEL DISCUSSION (includes questions from the floor)

11:45 AM

LUNCH in the GREAT HALL

1:00 PM

PANEL II: Atmospheric Change

This panel will examine changes in the atmosphere over North America and globally, the role that the North American transportation system plays in inducing these changes, and how this role may change over the next several decades

Chair: RUTH RECK

Rapporteurs: CLAUDE LEFRANÇOIS & MIKE HEWSON

1:00 - 1:10

OVERVIEW by the panel chair

1:10 - 1:30

MICHAEL RODGERS — Georgia Institute of Technology

• How does the transportation sector contribute to atmospheric pollution?

• How do emissions from the transportation sector compare in magnitude with those from other economic sectors?

1:30 - 1:50

MARIA ESTHER RUIZ — Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo

• What changes in local air quality are occurring in North America?

1:50 - 2:10

ANN McMILLAN — Atmospheric Service / Environment Canada

• What changes in air quality on regional scales are occurring in North America?

2:10 - 2:30

MARY ANNE CARROLL — University of Michigan

• What continental to global changes are occurring in the atmosphere?

2:30 - 3:10

PANEL DISCUSSION (includes questions from the floor)

Speakers plus Additional Panelists:

MICHELLE BROIDO — NARSTO / Department of Energy

MICHAEL MacCRACKEN — US Global Change Research Program

3:10 PM

BREAK

3:30 PM

PANEL III: Impacts of the Changing Atmosphere

This panel will examine the range and extent of the effects of atmospheric changes on human health, socioeconomic systems and ecosystems, and how these effects may change in response to the atmospheric changes induced by the future evolution of the North American transportation sector

Chair: THOMAS GRAEDEL

Rapporteurs: MIKE HEWSON & CLAUDE LEFRANÇOIS

3:30 - 3:40

OVERVIEW by the panel chair

3:40 - 4:00

ELLIS COWLING — North Carolina State University

• What are the present acute and chronic impacts of air pollution on ecological and socioeconomic systems?

• How might these impacts change in response to future changes in air quality?

4:00 - 4:20

BAILUS WALKER — Howard University

• What are the present acute and chronic impacts of air pollution on human health?

• How might these impacts change in response to future changes in air quality?

4:20 - 4:40

ROBERT WATSON — IPCC & World Bank

• What consequences of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion for ecological and socioeconomic systems have been identified?

• How might these impacts change qualitatively in response to future changes in climate and stratospheric ozone?

4:40 - 5:30

PANEL DISCUSSION (includes questions from the floor)

Speakers plus Additional Panelists:

VICTOR BORJA — Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica

RICHARD KLIMISCH — Association of American Automobile Manufacturers

WILLIAM SCHLESINGER — Duke University

5:30 PM

ADJOURN for DAY

8:15 AM

PANEL IV: Reducing the Impacts: A. Technology-driven policies

This panel will examine research and development needs, and the potential effectiveness of a range of alternative approaches to stimulate this research and development

Chair: C. MICHAEL WALTON

Rapporteurs: STEVE PLOTKIN & ERIC HAITES

8:15 - 8:25

OVERVIEW by the panel chair

8:25 - 8:50

DANIEL SPERLING — University of California-Davis

• What is the potential for scientific research and technology development to reduce future transportation emissions?

8:50 - 9:15

FRANCISCO GUZMAN — Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo

• Which policies are effective in the technological forcing of emission reductions for surface transportation?

9:15 - 9:40

HOWARD WESOKY — National Aeronautics and Space Administration

• Which policies are effective in the technological forcing of emission reductions for air transportation?

9:40 - 10:05

SCOT STALEY — Department of Commerce

• How effective are public/private partnerships for accelerating transportation research and development?

10:05 - 10:25

BREAK

10:25 - 11:45

PANEL DISCUSSION

Speakers plus Additional Panelists:

DAVID GREENE — Oak Ridge National Laboratory

ED WALL — PNGV Government Technical Council

CHRISTINE SLOAN — General Motors Research

11:45 - 1:00

LUNCH in the GREAT HALL

1:00 - 1:30

PANEL DISCUSSION (with audience participation)

1:30 - 1:55

DISCUSSION SUMMARIZATION (panel chair with assistance of panel)

1:55 - 2:00 PM

SHORT BREAK

2:00 PM

PANEL V: Reducing the Impacts: B. Economic and social policies

This panel will examine the effectiveness of a range of economic and social policies to mitigate the influence of transportation on atmospheric change

Chair: RICHARD MESERVE

Rapporteurs: JAMES BRUCE & DANIEL SPERLING

2:00 - 2:10

OVERVIEW by the panel chair

2:10 - 2:35

LEE SCHIPPER — LBNL & International Energy Agency

• Will social and economic policies be needed to capture the potential public benefits of advances in efficiency of transportation technology?

2:35 - 3:00

NEIL IRWIN — IBE Group

• What fraction of the full cost of transportation do users directly pay?

3:00 - 3:20

BREAK

3:20 - 3:45

ERIK HAITES — IPCC & Margaree Consultants

• How effective and attractive are economic and social policies to reduce emissions?

3:45 - 4:05

BERNARDO NAVARRO — Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Xochimilco

• What strategies are effective in producing modal shifts that reduce emissions?

4:05 - 4:30

KEN OGILVIE — Ontario Roundtable

• What are the prospects for managing transportation emissions at the metropolitan and regional levels?

4:30 - 5:45

PANEL DISCUSSION (includes questions from the floor)

4:30 - 5:45

PANEL DISCUSSION (includes questions from the floor)

Speakers plus Additional Panelists:

JOHN FLORA — World Bank

MARK CORRALES — Apogee Research, Inc

5:50 PM

ADJOURN WORKSHOP for the DAY

6:00 PM

RECEPTION in the GREAT HALL

7:00 PM

SPECIAL PUBLIC LECTURE:

What Is Actually in the Urban Atmosphere? Several Case Studies

F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND

Wednesday, March 26, 1997

8:00 AM

CONTINUATION of PANEL V:

Reducing the Impacts:

B. Economic and social policies

8:00 - 8:10

OPENING COMMENTS by Panel Chair

8:10 - 9:10

Current Legislative and Regulatory Approaches to Reducing Emissions

RICHARD GILBERT — Centre for Sustainable Transportation

Canadian Approaches and Experience

MARY NICHOLS — Environmental Protection Agency

United States' Approaches and Experience

MARIANO BAUER — Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Mexican Approaches and Experience

CARL-HEINZ MUMME — World Bank

International Lending Agencies' Perspectives

9:10 - 9:50

PANEL DISCUSSION on Three Nations' Approaches (with audience questions)

9:50 - 10:10

BREAK

10:10 - 11:40

FINAL PANEL DISCUSSION on Effectiveness of Policy Measures

(with previous speakers and panelists)

11:40 - 12:00

DISCUSSION SUMMARIZATION

(panel chair with assistance of panel)

12 Noon

LUNCH in the GREAT HALL

1:30 PM

FINAL PLENARY SESSION

This panel will examine the effectiveness of a range of economic and environmental policies to mitigate the influence of transportation on atmospheric change

Co-Chairs: JAMES BRUCE & MAURICIO FORTES

Rapporteurs: LOWELL SMITH & JAMES ZUCCHETTO

Panelists: CHAIRS of PANELS 1 - 5

• What investments in scientific research, technological development and economic and social policy research are needed both regionally and globally to reduce uncertainties and to foster future development of the transportation sector in North America in a sustainable manner?

• How might these investments be effective in aiding decision makers in the public and private sectors?

• What are the important elements of a decision framework for assessing impacts of current and future transportation systems on atmospheric change, and for analyzing the effectiveness of alternative policy instruments?

3:30 PM

BREAK

4:00 PM

CLOSING of WORKSHOP

Summarization of findings and conclusions led by the workshop chair. Where do we go from here? A plenary discussion of the next steps.

Chair: F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND

Rapporteurs: JAMES ZUCCHETTO & LOWELL SMITH

5:00 PM

CLOSING of WORKSHOP