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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program

An Initial Assessment

Committee on Hydrologic Science
Water Science and Technology Board
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, DC

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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Page ii

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

Support for this project was provided by the Army Research Office, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Science Foundation (under Grant No. EAR-9814582), National Weather Service, and U.S. Geological Survey. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.

International Standard Book Number 0-309-06648-4

Additional copies of this report are available from:

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Cover by Van Nguyen, National Academy Press. Adapted from painting Niagara Falls by Frederick Church, 1857.

Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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COMMITTEE ON HYDROLOGIC SCIENCE

DARA ENTEKHABI, Chair, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

MARY R. ANDERSON, University of Wisconsin, Madison

RONI AVISSAR, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey

ROGER C. BALES, University of Arizona, Tucson

EVILLE GORHAM, University of Minnesota, St. Paul

MARC B. PARLANGE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland

CHRISTA PETERS-LIDARD, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

KENNETH W. POTTER, University of Wisconsin, Madison

ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

National Research Council Staff

STEPHEN D. PARKER, Project Study Director

PETER A. SCHULTZ, Staff Officer

ANITA A. HALL, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD

HENRY J. VAUX, JR. (Chair), University of California, Riverside

CAROL A. JOHNSTON (Vice Chair), University of Minnesota, Duluth

RICHELLE M. ALLEN-KING, Washington State University, Pullman

GREGORY B. BAECHER, University of Maryland, College Park

JOHN S. BOYER, University of Delaware, Lewes

JOHN BRISCOE, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.

DENISE FORT, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

STEVEN R. GLOSS, University of Wyoming, Laramie

EVILLE GORHAM, University of Minnesota, St. Paul

WILLIAM A. JURY, University of California, Riverside

GARY S. LOGSDON, Black & Veatch, Cincinnati, Ohio

RICHARD G. LUTHY, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

JOHN W. MORRIS, J. W. Morris, Arlington, Virginia

PHILLIP A. PALMER, DuPont Engineering, Wilmington, Delaware

REBECCA T. PARKIN, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C.

JOAN B. ROSE, University of South Florida, St Petersburg

RHODES TRUSSELL, Montgomery Watson, Inc., Pasadena, California

ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

Staff

STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director

JACQUELINE MACDONALD, Associate Director

CHRIS ELFRING, Senior Staff Officer

LAURA EHLERS, Senior Staff Officer

JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Staff Officer

JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Associate

MARK GIBSON, Research Associate

ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Assistant

ELLEN de GUZMAN, Senior Project Assistant

ANIKE JOHNSON, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park

JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair), IT Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.

SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder

LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany

MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook

CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts

ROGER A. PIELKE, JR., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

ROBERT T. RYAN, WRC-TV, Washington, D.C.

MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts

ROBERT A. WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

Ex Officio Members

DONALD BURKE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland

DARA ENTEKHABI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

EUGENE RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park

JOHN ROADS, University of California at San Diego/Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla

PAUL WINE, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

NRC Staff

ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director

LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer

PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer

DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant

ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate

TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant

CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
×

Page vi

COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES

GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville

RICHARD A. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), Charleston, West Virginia

THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

THOMAS J. GRAFF, Environmental Defense Fund, Oakland, California

EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park

DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.

KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts

RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.

BRAD MOONEY, J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia

HUGH C. MORRIS, El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia

H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens

MILTON RUSSELL, University of Tennessee, Knoxville

THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park

ANDREW R. SOLOW, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida

E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park

MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California

Staff

ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director

GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director

JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer

SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate

MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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Page ix

Preface

The availability of fresh water is potentially one of the most pervasive crises of the coming century. Water-related decisions will determine the future of major ecosystems, the health of regional economies, and the political stability of nations. A vigorous program of research in hydrologic sciences can provide the basis for sound water management at local, regional, national, and international levels.

The Committee on Hydrologic Science was established by the National Research Council in 1999 to identify priorities for hydrologic science that will ensure its vitality as a scientific discipline in service of societal needs. This charge will be performed principally through a series of studies that provide scientific advice on the hydrologic aspects of national program and U.S. hydrologic contributions to international programs.

This first report contains a preliminary assessment of the hydrologic science content of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). Because this is a short and focused report, little effort is spent to reaffirm the established and successful elements of the USGCRP. In fact, the Committee generally endorses the findings of the National Research Council (NRC) report Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade (NRC, 1998a; the so-called Pathways report) in this respect. Instead the attention here is directed toward the most critical missing hydrologic science elements in the FY2000 USGCRP. This brings the focus to the terrestrial component of the water cycle. The integrative nature of terrestrial hydrology could significantly strengthen the USGCRP. Two specific examples of the useful roles of terrestrial hydrology are: (1) linking regional hydrologic and water resources systems with large-scale and global water and energy cycles and (2) coupling water and biogeochemical cycles through ecosystems. This report recommends science priorities on these and related topics.

This report was produced in a short period of time. The Committee first met February 8–9, 1999, at which time it several briefings from federal officials and scientists. The Committee met again April 6–8, 1999, and drafted report chapters at that time. Subsequently, Committee members edited and circulated materials until the report was completed. It is anticipated that in the next few years, several aspects of hydrology not dealt with in depth in this "initial assessment" will be fleshed out more thoroughly by the Committee and reported in more detail.

The Committee was aided in the study process by numerous agency liaisons, including L. Douglas James, National Science Foundation; Robert Hirsch, U.S. Geological Survey; Richard Lawford, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; John Schaake, National Weather Service; Russell Harmon, Army Research Office; David Goodrich, U.S. Global Change Research Program Office; and representatives

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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Page x

from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Three NRC staff members helped the Committee: Stephen Parker, director of the Water Science and Technology Board (WSTB), who served as principal staff officer for the Committee; Peter Schultz, staff officer with the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate; and Anita Hall, a WSTB administrative assistant.

This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscripts remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Eric J. Barron, Pennsylvania State University; Stephen Burges, University of Washington; George M. Hornberger, University of Virginia; Dennis Lettenmaier, University of Washington; Diane M. McKnight, University of Colorado; Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State University; Fred M. Phillips, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology; David H. Rind, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; and Soroosh Sorooshian, University of Arizona. Although the individuals listed above provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests with the authoring committee and the NRC.

It is the hope of the Committee that the recommendations are persuasive and that they will be pursued, as commitment to implementation of these recommendations should bring advances to hydrologic science for the benefit of society.

DARA ENTEKHABI, CHAIR
COMMITTEE ON HYDROLOGIC SCIENCE

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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Page xi

Contents

Executive Summary

1

1. Setting Priorities

3

2. Science Foundations and Basic Processes

6

Predictability and Variability of Regional and Global Water Cycles

6

Coupling of Hydrologic System and Ecosystems through Chemical Cycles

10

3. Measurement and Data Strategies

16

4. Applications and Knowledge Transfer

25

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

27

References

31

Appendix: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members

33

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9659.
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The availability of fresh water is potentially one of the most pervasive crises of the coming century. Water-related decisions will determine the future of major ecosystems, the health of regional economies, and the political stability of nations. A vigorous program of research in hydrologic sciences can provide the basis for sound water management at local, regional, national, and international levels.

The Committee on Hydrologic Science was established by the National Research Council in 1999 to identify priorities for hydrologic science that will ensure its vitality as a scientific discipline in service of societal needs. This charge will be performed principally through a series of studies that provide scientific advice on the hydrologic aspects of national program and U.S. hydrologic contributions to international programs.

This first report contains a preliminary assessment of the hydrologic science content of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). Because this is a short and focused report, little effort is spent to reaffirm the established and successful elements of the USGCRP. In fact, the Committee generally endorses the findings of the National Research Council (NRC) report Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade (NRC, 1998a; the so-called Pathways report) in this respect. Instead the attention here is directed toward the most critical missing hydrologic science elements in the FY2000 USGCRP. This brings the focus to the terrestrial component of the water cycle. The integrative nature of terrestrial hydrology could significantly strengthen the USGCRP.

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