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OCR for page 27
Page 27
5—
Conclusions and Recommendations
Hydrologic science is becoming increasingly recognized as an
important element of global environmental research. Our Changing
Planet (USGCRP, 1999) identifies several new key research
priorities in hydrologic science that have not previously been well
addressed. The following conclusions briefly assess the state of
hydrologic science research within the USGCRP, and consider not
only the aims of the USGCRP, but also the broader research
community. These conclusions are supported by the discussions in
chapters 2-4 of this report on science priorities, measurement and
data strategies, and applications and knowledge-transfer needs.
Recommendations corresponding to the conclusions are included.
Conclusion 1: The development of scientific capability to
detect and predict changes to the water cycle in response to
natural and human-induced climate variability is a key priority
research area. The development of such scientific foundations
requires strategic investments in both measurement and basic
research programs. Current USGCRP water cycle activities have a
strong emphasis on climate and on the influence of oceanic and
atmospheric processes on climate. Several priority areas for
research in hydrologic sciences are currently not well developed in
the USGCRP.
Recommendation 1.1: The identification of the limits
to predictability of hydrologic variables should be among the
guiding scientific challenges of the USGCRP water cycle initiative.
The dependence of these limits on space and time scales, the
sources of variability, and the effects of interactions among
terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic components on variability
need to be addressed in the context of predictability.
Recommendation 1.2: Agencies should establish
mechanism to foster multi-disciplinary research on hydrologic
system-ecosystem coupling. The emphasis on ecosystems will require
that aqueous chemical cycles become prominent research priorities
of the USGCRP water cycle initiative; at present, water quality is
essentially absent from the USGCRP.
Recommendation 1.3: Research on climate-hydrology
linkages should be broadened to address issues of groundwater
recharge, evaporation, basin-scale water balance, water and
chemical pathways, and ecosystem responses. Fundamental research in
these areas is also a priority in contexts other than climate, such
as changing land use and its impacts on watershed-scale hydrologic
processes.
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Recommendation 1.4: Detailed implementation plans
should be developed for the priority scientific challenges
identified in this report. These plans should be based on a
comprehensive view of current understanding, a futuristic view of
technology, and a realistic view of cost-effective strategies. The
agencies with substantial roles in hydrologic science research and
measurements need to make certain that these efforts are led by
stewards with effective authority and organizational
support.
Conclusion 2: The satellite measurement programs that
constitute over 70 percent of the USGCRP water cycle budget in
FY2000 are important but are not sufficiently focused to meet the
specific challenges posed in Our Changing Planet or outlined
in this report. Remote sensing is particularly well suited for
global change research needs such as the characterization of
precipitation, snow-pack properties, and surface soil. Realizing
the full potential of remote sensing for hydrologic research and
applications will, however, require a well-integrated satellite,
ground network, and information management program. At present, the
USGCRP gives a much lower priority to ground-based measurement
networks and to long-term monitoring as critical elements in
hydrologic research. Many hydrologic data archives are not readily
accessible, and they are thus in danger of being lost.
Recommendation 2.1: The USGCRP should give a high
priority to developing effective measurement and data strategies
for the terrestrial component of the water cycle. The design of new
instrumentation and monitoring networks needs to incorporate
effectiveness requirements for detecting change as well factors
related to operational forecasting and process-level research.
These networks need to integrate remote sensing and ground-based
data, and they must be sustainable over the long term.
Recommendation 2.2: A study of data and measurement
strategies for hydrologic science should be initiated immediately
and should be completed within about a year. Considerable attention
needs to be given to recovering and archiving hydrologic data and
making it available through effective data and information
management systems. The study should include a process for broad
participation from the research and applications community in
hydrologic science and in related sciences.
Recommendation 2.3: A parallel study should be
initiated to assess the current state of and need for long-term
experimental sites. Resources for expansion of these programs to
include measurement and monitoring components required for
hydrologic process studies and basin-scale water balance should be
given high priority.
Conclusion 3: Research in hydrologic science has much to
contribute to the USGCRP emphasis on global change impacts,
especially on water resource management issues (e.g., performance
of water delivery systems, decision-making under drought
conditions, or monitoring of the quality and quantity of regional
groundwater and surface water systems). That emphasis also provides
an important framework to help define future priorities in
hydrologic science.
Recommendation 3.1: Water resources management should
be an integral, visible component of the global water cycle
research initiative and should help guide the evolution of new
initiatives within the USGCRP.
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Recommendation 3.2: Formal efforts should be initiated
to develop a better means of connecting hydrologic research and its
applications in water resources management (i.e., two- way
communication and knowledge transfer between researchers and the
management community is needed).
Recommendation 3.3: New initiatives should be launched
in hydrologic education and literacy that lead research scientists,
the public, and government and other agencies to become stake
holders of a common interest in the water resources of a changing
world.
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
water cycle