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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Evaluating Welfare Reform: A Framework and Review of Current Work, Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9672.
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Evaluating Welfare Reform

A Framework and Review of Current Work

Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs

Robert A. Moffitt and Michele Ver Ploeg, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Evaluating Welfare Reform: A Framework and Review of Current Work, Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9672.
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

The project that is the subject of this report is supported by Contract No. HHS-100-98-0011 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number SBR-9709489). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.

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Suggested citation: National Research Council (1999) Evaluating Welfare Reform: A Framework and Review of Current Work. Interim Report. Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs. Robert A. Moffitt and Michele Ver Ploeg, Editors. Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Evaluating Welfare Reform: A Framework and Review of Current Work, Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9672.
×

PANEL ON DATA AND METHODS FOR MEASURING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN SOCIAL WELFARE PROGRAMS

ROBERT A. MOFFITT (Chair),

Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University

JOHN L. ADAMS,

RAND, Santa Monica, California

THOMAS CORBETT,

Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin, Madison

JOHN L. CZAJKA,

Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C.

KATHRYN EDIN,

Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania

IRWIN GARFINKEL,

School of Social Work, Columbia University

ROBERT M. GOERGE,

Chapin Hall Center for Children, University of Chicago

ERIC A. HANUSHEK,

Department of Economics, University of Rochester

V. JOSEPH HOTZ,

Departments of Economics and Policy Studies, University of California, Los Angeles

RICHARD A. KULKA,

Statistics, Health, and Social Policy, Research Triangle Institute

REBECCA A. MAYNARD,

Graduate School of Education, University of Pennsylvania

SUZANNE M. RANDOLPH,

Department of Family Studies, University of Maryland

WERNER SCHINK,

California Department of Social Services, Sacramento

MICHELE VER PLOEG, Study Director

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Program Officer

TELISSIA M. THOMPSON, Senior Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Evaluating Welfare Reform: A Framework and Review of Current Work, Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9672.
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 1998–1999

JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair),

Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California

JOSEPH G. ALTONJI,

Department of Economics, Northwestern University

JULIE DAVANZO,

RAND, Santa Monica, California

WILLIAM F. EDDY,

Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University

WILLIAM KALSBEEK,

Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina

RODERICK J.A. LITTLE,

School of Public Health, University of Michigan

THOMAS A. LOUIS,

School of Public Health, University of Minnesota

CHARLES F. MANSKI,

Department of Economics, Northwestern University

WILLIAM NORDHAUS,

Department of Economics, Yale University

JANET L. NORWOOD,

Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

EDWARD B. PERRIN,

Department of Health Services, University of Washington

PAUL ROSENBAUM,

Department of Statistics, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO,

Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis

RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE,

Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MIRON L. STRAF, Director (on leave)

ANDREW A. WHITE, Acting Director

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Evaluating Welfare Reform: A Framework and Review of Current Work, Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9672.
×

Acknowledgments

The Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs gratefully acknowledges those who contributed to the preparation of this interim report.

First we would like to thank the staff of the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation in the Department of Health and Human Services (ASPE-DHHS) for providing information on the studies following those who leave welfare and for briefing the panel on the progression of the welfare leaver studies. Susan Hauan, Julie Isaacs, and Matt Lyon all provided information for the panel. We would also like to thank Patricia Ruggles for briefing the panel on ASPE's research activities at the first panel meeting and for taking the time to provide briefings on ASPE activities at meetings with staff to the panel. Howard Rolston of the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) in DHHS also provided a summary of ACF research activities for the panel's first meeting. Several other individuals updated the panel on current research efforts on welfare reform for the first meeting of the panel. Andrew Cherlin of Johns Hopkins University, Charles Michalopoulos of Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation, Stephanie Shipp of the Census Bureau, and Alan Weil of the Urban Institute, are acknowledged for briefing the panel on their research projects. We also thank the participants of the workshop with states and counties who received ASPE-sponsored grants for spurring discussion at the workshop. A Summary of this workshop has been published separately and is available on request.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Evaluating Welfare Reform: A Framework and Review of Current Work, Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9672.
×

(NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Burt S. Barnow, Institute for Policy Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Greg J. Duncan, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University; Richard E. Larson, Family Investment Administration, Maryland Department of Human Resources; Lawrence M. Mead, Department of Politics, New York University; Robert Michael, Harris Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Chicago; Michael R. Pergamit, National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago; and Don Winstead, Welfare Reform Administration, Florida Department of Children and Families.

Although the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

The panel is indebted to the efforts of the NRC staff in the preparation of this report. Michele Ver Ploeg, the study director for the panel and coeditor of this report, provided superb assistance in the drafting and redrafting process and in shepherding the draft through the NRC review process, as well as organizing the panel's meetings and activities, molding the panel's sometimes loose thoughts into coherent summaries, gathering and summarizing materials on welfare reform for the panel, and serving as liaison with the sponsor and other outside groups. Constance Citro, senior project officer, guided the panel through NRC processes, drafted sections of the report, and tirelessly read and commented on drafts of the report. The panel is grateful for her insights. The panel is grateful to Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education for her excellent technical editing. The panel greatly appreciates the work that Telissia Thompson, senior project assistant, provided for the activities of the panel. Telissia skillfully contributed to the production of the final manuscript. Her superb efforts in arranging the logistics of panel meetings and workshops should also be recognized.

Finally, I thank my fellow panel members for giving their time and expertise so generously toward the completion of this report. Their contributions to the panel's activities and to this report are thoroughly appreciated. It has been a pleasure to work with you.

ROBERT MOFFITT, CHAIR

PANEL ON DATA AND METHODS FOR MEASURING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN SOCIAL WELFARE PROGRAMS

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Evaluating Welfare Reform: A Framework and Review of Current Work, Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9672.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1999. Evaluating Welfare Reform: A Framework and Review of Current Work, Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9672.
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The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996 fundamentally changed the nation's social welfare system, replacing a federal entitlement program for low-income families, called Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), with state-administered block grants, the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. PRWORA furthered a trend started earlier in the decade under so called "waiver" programs-state experiments with different types of AFDC rules-toward devolution of design and control of social welfare programs from the federal government to the states. The legislation imposed several new, major requirements on state use of federal welfare funds but otherwise freed states to reconfigure their programs as they want. The underlying goal of the legislation is to decrease dependence on welfare and increase the self-sufficiency of poor families in the United States.

In summer 1998, the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE) of the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) asked the Committee on National Statistics of the National Research Council to convene a Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs. The panel's overall charge is to study and make recommendations on the best strategies for evaluating the effects of PRWORA and other welfare reforms and to make recommendations on data needs for conducting useful evaluations. This interim report presents the panel's initial conclusions and recommendations. Given the short length of time the panel has been in existence, this report necessarily treats many issues in much less depth than they will be treated in the final report. The report has an immediate short-run goal of providing DHHS-ASPE with recommendations regarding some of its current projects, particularly those recently funded to study "welfare leavers"-former welfare recipients who have left the welfare rolls as part of the recent decline in welfare caseloads.

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